Coronavirus prep

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  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
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    snowflake954 wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    ...I find the differences between the numbers in various places (for example, NY and CA), even places following basically the same policies for the same amount of time intriguing, although no idea what the answers are.

    My understanding is that CA started the mandatory social distancing policies several days before NY. Every day makes a huge difference in slowing things down. I think another big difference is that NY has a huge population all jammed up together in close quarters with a large share of that population using mass transit. CA has a huge number of people, but they are more spread out, and public transportation isn't used by the majority.

    Yes, I see those explanations, but the difference still seems huge. This article: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224944/coronavirus-hot-spots-covid-new-york-michigan-florida poses a number of reasons, including those, but it just doesn't seem entirely sufficient to me.

    And based on the new possible infection rate numbers for LA County (which are pretty iffy still from what I've read), it would be less so:

    "Skeptics have noted that the conclusions seem at odds with some basic math. In New York City, where more than 10,000 people, or about 0.1 percent of the population, have already died from Covid-19, this estimated fatality rate [based on the new LA numbers] would mean nearly everyone in the city has already been infected. That’s unlikely, since the number of new cases, and deaths, is still mounting, fast."

    From here: https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

    There's a new studies out of China that suggest that not only are there numerous strains of the virus, but that some of the mutations are more virulent: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

    "The study could have future implications on the treatment of coronavirus, as several different strains have been found throughout the world. The United States, which has the world's worst death toll at 42,897, and 799,515 overall cases, has been struck by different mutations. New York, which itself had the worst death rate in the US, and the eastern coast show a strain of coronavirus similar to that found in Europe, whereas the western US has shown similarities with strains found in China."

    I'm not sure I believe that (more confirmation necessary), but I do wonder.

    On CA shutting down early, the Vox piece says: "The Bay Area issued the first shelter-in-place order in the US on March 16, and California issued a statewide stay-at-home order three days later — while New York didn’t impose its own mandate until March 22."

    However, Chicago (and IL as a whole) imposed our shelter-in-place at the same time as CA, and yet the outbreak here seems much worse, even though it also seems likely it was spreading in CA earlier.

    CA has had 35,396 positive cases, and 1354 deaths vs. 35,108 cases and 1565 deaths in IL, even though CA has 3 times the population of IL. (CA has tested more, but not if you adjust for it having more than 3x the population.)

    Maybe weather is part of it (FL has had a lot of cases, but given many other factors, seems like more would have been expected), and Chicago relies more on public transportation, but it still seems odd.

    I'm wondering about climate a bit because of the big difference in number of cases between North and South Italy.

    Yes, that also supports that theory.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,467 Member
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    @justsomeem and those in the medical field. Do you think the cause of painful toes could possibly be (at least partially ) poor circulation and the nerve pain and tingling it causes. My circulation is not the best, I have post shingles pain, and anything that causes me to go to bed a day or two means pain in the toes on the shingles side. Just a thought.
  • jseams1234
    jseams1234 Posts: 1,216 Member
    edited April 2020
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    cmriverside wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    Apparently there are a number of false negatives. Ross Douthat (the conservative NYT columnist) thinks he, his wife, and his son all had it, but Ross's test came back negative and his son's inconclusive, and at that point they were on the mend so did not retest. He was discussing the false negative issue on one of the episodes of his podcast (The Argument).

    Actual REAL false negatives or someone like Douthat insisting that he is right and the test is wrong. I mean, that's pretty arrogant.





    Kind of like me insisting me and my cat had it even though we didn't get tested? :lol:

    I got sick in February - I live in the Bay Area and pretty close to Santa Clara. My job requires me to interact with foreign researchers - many of them Chinese nationals who travel here directly to consult with me. Anyhow, I got pretty darned sick and missed more than week of work. My wife caught it too and also spent a couple of weeks out. Seemed like influenza to me, even though I had my vaccination - constant mid grade fever for an entire week. My wifes version progressed into her lungs and she was hacking for quite a while and ended up with both a sinus infection and bronchitis from it. Took her about a month to stop hacking and took me just about as long to feel normal and not out of breath doing normal activities.

    Was it Covid-19? Considering the testing Stanford has been doing it is more than a small possibility. However, it could of just been the Flu. People are forgetting that the regular rhinovirus and influenza are still out there and people are still just as likely to catch one of those.
  • JRsLateInLifeMom
    JRsLateInLifeMom Posts: 2,275 Member
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    Coriandue- That’s what I was wondering if it could be mini blood clots since the virus has caused heart issues . Also their saying foggy brain to trouble with emotions after. Might not be effecting things but causing blood clots all over leading to more noticeable issues.
  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,013 Member
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    cmriverside wrote: »
    I'm not happy about the fact we are opening recreation first (according to the Washington governor.)

    Makes no sense. People are going to flock to parks and beaches and playgrounds.

    I guess there's some reasoning behind it - not sure what. If you're going to let people get together in recreational ways, let them work. Much more important in my view.

    I know I know, no one asked me.

    It also flies in the face of the argument that the important reason to get back to normal is economic. I agree, it makes no sense. But then, very little of this mess makes sense to me :confused:
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 32,170 Member
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    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    Our governor is catching quite a bit of flack for extending to May 15 before starting to roll out a soft opening. IMO, this is prudent and follows the guidelines set out by the White House to have 14 days of declining numbers before phasing in openings.

    State wide, our curve has flattened, but we're not seeing overall declining numbers yet. There are currently two counties that are seeing a substantial surge in cases and a third that is still seeing increases, but starting to flatten out. Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, and Taos County are currently seeing new cases and hospitalizations on the decline, but that has only been the last few days.

    To me, this is all very promising and I'm optimistic that we will indeed begin to re-open after May 15th. Another thing that a lot of people don't seem to get is that we can't just open the flood gates...it's not going to go back to January on May 16...it will be quite a long time before things return to that kind of operation, but a lot of people here responding on social media seem to think "opening" is going to be just flipping a switch to full operations overnight even though the governor has repeatedly said that this will all happen in phases.

    The bolded seems sensible on the technical front, maybe less so politically (not saying that politics should drive!).

    I can see the need to release opening-up rules somewhat before the actual event, to give businesses a little more planning/readiness time (something many haven't gotten with the steady march of quickly-imposed restrictions, in some regions).

    But waiting as long as practical gives the opening-up rules the benefit of planning task forces having observed the states/countries that have opened up earlier, and maybe adjusting plans based on others' good or bad ideas.
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,197 MFP Moderator
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    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    @JustSomeEm

    Okay, I just shared this with the folks and first thing came to their minds about Covid toes, sounds like symptoms of pneumonic plague.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/plague/symptoms-causes/syc-20351291

    Then we took a trip down memory lane and they reminded me of a childhood friend and mother who died of the plague. They had rabbits/fleas and they carried it to the family. Their toes turned black/blue and their entire bodies before they died. It was a sad day.

    @Diatonic12 - From your link, it looks like Septicemic plague (not bubonic) caused extremities blackened skin issues, but yikes! I'd never actually looked at the list of symptoms for any plague before. Thankfully COVID is a virus that might, maybe, possibly cause circulation issues, while the Plague was a bacteria that was waaaaaaay worse. Lets hope the symptoms for COVID19 don't end up including things like bleeding from orifices. :confused:

  • Diatonic12
    Diatonic12 Posts: 32,344 Member
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    @JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
    Thanks much.
    https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe :'(
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,197 MFP Moderator
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    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    @JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
    Thanks much.
    https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe :'(

    I believe you - I was just commenting on the different types of plague in your link, and being thankful that COVID19 isn't as bad as any of them. :) Your link really put into perspective for me that things could be worse. I've been too focused on the bad when there is plenty of 'not as bad as it could be'.

    Really tactless questions: When did your friend and their mother pass (meaning how long ago was it), and where were you? I'm very sorry that happened to you.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,874 Member
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    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    Our governor is catching quite a bit of flack for extending to May 15 before starting to roll out a soft opening. IMO, this is prudent and follows the guidelines set out by the White House to have 14 days of declining numbers before phasing in openings.

    State wide, our curve has flattened, but we're not seeing overall declining numbers yet. There are currently two counties that are seeing a substantial surge in cases and a third that is still seeing increases, but starting to flatten out. Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, and Taos County are currently seeing new cases and hospitalizations on the decline, but that has only been the last few days.

    To me, this is all very promising and I'm optimistic that we will indeed begin to re-open after May 15th. Another thing that a lot of people don't seem to get is that we can't just open the flood gates...it's not going to go back to January on May 16...it will be quite a long time before things return to that kind of operation, but a lot of people here responding on social media seem to think "opening" is going to be just flipping a switch to full operations overnight even though the governor has repeatedly said that this will all happen in phases.

    The bolded seems sensible on the technical front, maybe less so politically (not saying that politics should drive!).

    I can see the need to release opening-up rules somewhat before the actual event, to give businesses a little more planning/readiness time (something many haven't gotten with the steady march of quickly-imposed restrictions, in some regions).

    But waiting as long as practical gives the opening-up rules the benefit of planning task forces having observed the states/countries that have opened up earlier, and maybe adjusting plans based on others' good or bad ideas.

    From what I understand, the next few weeks will be spent in talks with the business community about what businesses will be allowed to re-open in phase I and what the rules and restrictions will be. This probably won't be communicated to the general public until there is more certainty that we will actually start opening things up a bit.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,467 Member
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    There was a protest here, wanting things to open sooner. 10 people showed up. There’s supposed to be an online protest tomorrow, wanting the governor to keep things locked down longer. Do you think it will be better attended, since people won’t actually have to get up and get dressed. Lol. It will be interesting to see.
  • spiriteagle99
    spiriteagle99 Posts: 3,675 Member
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    Some good news in our county. Our death toll jumped on Monday from 0 to 10. Today it dropped back to 1. It turns out they were counting possible cases as actual. After objections from the Coroner,the number was dropped.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
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    Unfortunately there are continued questions about the accuracy of the coronavirus antibodies test, but if it is generally accurate, this new study showing 21% of people in NYC infected already and 14% in NYS is positive, as it certainly reduces the death rate stats a lot.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

    Of course the problem remains that if it spreads so much and if the antibodies don't prevent subsequent infection, it's going to be a lot of people dead anyway (and many not dead but very sick and possibly with ongoing effects, including lung damage).

    Also, the LA study increased infection rates a bunch (to the extent that if NYC had increased that much it would have meant everyone in NYC had it, apparently), but it was still only at 4.5%, which likely means most of the country still has pretty low infection rates (outside of certain kinds of group living situations like nursing homes and jails and prisons).
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
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    Interesting analysis showing likely persistent undercounting of corona deaths:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Here, our stay at home order has been extended from 4/30 to 5/30, but with modifications that loosen the restrictions somewhat in some cases, but also will require masks as of 5/1. The hope is that warmer weather is going to help too.

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