Coronavirus prep

SummerSkier wrote: »

OK - so I have an idea. Instead of relying on health officials to do all the legwork. How about we all keep a daily diary of the places we have been and the people we have been in contact with. That way if we do come down with the virus, we already have everything concisely in one place to notify others quickly to try to contain the spread. I know if someone from work called me and said, hey I just got tested positive and am sick, I would take a LOT stronger measures as far as my movements and letting others around me know.

rheddmobile wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

I thought this was interesting: The local authorities (county/township) closed the parks, got pleas not to do it, and opened them again. They had asked people not to be using the parks/trails generally, but that's changed. There still will not be restrooms, etc., but they're now considering the outdoor areas open for use, and asking people to avoid clustering, exercise caution about touching shared equipment, understand that routine maintenance will be reduced/eliminated, etc. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I'll mention that this is a metro area of a mid-sized city, not a super-concentrated population center. Even under peak use in summer, much of the parks'/trails' land area is pretty sparsely covered with people, mostly at close to "social distancing appropriate" separation, except for beaches, picnic areas, sports fields, playgrounds. It's still cold-ish here, so usage is seasonally way less than that now (we're somewhere in the 30F-50F temperature range, mostly, now, but it's quite variable).

I ran at the park yesterday. I’m in Memphis, also a mid-sized city. I don’t think I will be running at the park anymore. Our parks are still open, including the restrooms, and were shoulder-to-shoulder with people. Large families were crowding the trails and several times I had to pass within a foot of someone unless I wanted to go off-trail which isn’t always possible. The parking lot was completely full, which usually only happens on weekends when the weather is exceptionally nice. Once I got onto the Greenline traffic was a lot sparser since few of the visitors have the fitness level to go that far, but getting there took me way too close to way too many people.

I feel like the kids are home, people are home, they don’t know what to do with themselves and nothing else is open, so they are crowding the parks. There was an article about the Children’s Museum of Memphis being overcrowded about a week ago, but it’s been closed now. Regardless, I’m in a high risk category so I will be running my neighborhood instead from now on, unless I can find a safe place to pee with access to the Greenline away from the normal park buildings. Unfortunately I don’t think I can manage without a restroom!

rheddmobile wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

I thought this was interesting: The local authorities (county/township) closed the parks, got pleas not to do it, and opened them again. They had asked people not to be using the parks/trails generally, but that's changed. There still will not be restrooms, etc., but they're now considering the outdoor areas open for use, and asking people to avoid clustering, exercise caution about touching shared equipment, understand that routine maintenance will be reduced/eliminated, etc. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I'll mention that this is a metro area of a mid-sized city, not a super-concentrated population center. Even under peak use in summer, much of the parks'/trails' land area is pretty sparsely covered with people, mostly at close to "social distancing appropriate" separation, except for beaches, picnic areas, sports fields, playgrounds. It's still cold-ish here, so usage is seasonally way less than that now (we're somewhere in the 30F-50F temperature range, mostly, now, but it's quite variable).

I ran at the park yesterday. I’m in Memphis, also a mid-sized city. I don’t think I will be running at the park anymore. Our parks are still open, including the restrooms, and were shoulder-to-shoulder with people. Large families were crowding the trails and several times I had to pass within a foot of someone unless I wanted to go off-trail which isn’t always possible. The parking lot was completely full, which usually only happens on weekends when the weather is exceptionally nice. Once I got onto the Greenline traffic was a lot sparser since few of the visitors have the fitness level to go that far, but getting there took me way too close to way too many people.

I feel like the kids are home, people are home, they don’t know what to do with themselves and nothing else is open, so they are crowding the parks. There was an article about the Children’s Museum of Memphis being overcrowded about a week ago, but it’s been closed now. Regardless, I’m in a high risk category so I will be running my neighborhood instead from now on, unless I can find a safe place to pee with access to the Greenline away from the normal park buildings. Unfortunately I don’t think I can manage without a restroom!

AnnPT77 wrote: »

bmeadows380 wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

If we don't have enough tests, we're undertesting, and don't know whether the incidence of XYZ virus in the population is higher or lower than the (number of positive tests) divided by (number of tests) . . . but because we're rationing tests to the most severe cases, we're mostly testing highly symptomatic people and getting a high percentage of positive tests, compared to the number of test performed. And, because we're testing the most severe cases as more testing kits become available, the jump in confirmed cases is extra-dramatic.

so once we get a test that is widely available and can be used on much more people, the death toll percentage will fall and eventually level out to a more accurate number which could well be less than the 4-6% estimated now. Right?

(snip)

Death toll (if you mean fatality rate for the disease) is (number of people who die of the disease)/(number of people who have the disease). Right now, we don't know how many people have the disease.

Theoretically, the fatality rate could go up or down, compared to what's being stated now, because the denominator (number of people who have the disease) is unknown, and the numerator (number of people who die) is going to depend to some extent on things like whether the hospitals/health care system can keep up or are overwhelmed. Fewer people will die if the health care system can keep up.

Trying to help the health care system keep up by making cases happen slower (same number of cases, but over a longer time period) - that "flattening the curve" thing - is what's being attempted now via social distancing measures.

Different countries/regions will have different fatality rates for the same disease, depending on a number of variables, but one is whether the health system can keep up.

One thing for sure, math-wise: Once all of this is over, and this virus reduced (as we hope) to a normal, treatable, potentially preventable disease), we will have enough data to realistically estimate fatality rates for areas with good statistical infrastructure. Until then, it's a moving target, though as time progresses, the estimates should improve as more data rolls in.

At least that's my view.

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

nutmegoreo wrote: »

COGypsy wrote: »

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

pitbullpuppy wrote: »

I find it astonishing that in a first world country we have a lack of masks and gloves for everyone -- what a shame. Thanks for the input. Just to echo some other posts here, yes, it is airborne and there are studies saying that once a person coughs (for instance) the virus stays in the air for for 3 hours, and it travels further in A/C buildings (it goes 15 feet now). It also stays on surfaces for 3 days.

A reference for surface time cited and 15ft travel: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/14/811609026/the-new-coronavirus-can-live-on-surfaces-for-2-3-days-heres-how-to-clean-them --There are plenty of others if you don't trust NPR.

A reference for staying in the air: https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center

Or even just a reserve for frontline workers. This is New Zealand's 'disaster kit' national reserve (individual district health boards are also meant to have contingency supplies): https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/emergency-management/national-reserve-supplies/composition-national-reserve-supply I don't understand how any developed nation can not have something like this.

Part of the problem is that HCW's are going through supplies so quickly. Testing is still relatively limited at this point and results are slow. What that means is that every potential case needs to be treated as a positive until the diagnosis is confirmed. So now supplies (stocks and reserves) are being used at a much faster rate than would be anticipated in even the disaster plans in order to make sure that we do our best to keep the health care workforce healthy. All the way around, it's just an unprecedented situation. Like they say, "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy".

Assuming that each patient in ICU, is attended hourly by their nurse, and multiple times each day by physicians, RTs, possibly a dietitian, etc.), it could easily get up over 30 masks per day per patient (fewer if they are not requiring ICU, but still at about 20/day - and at this point procedure masks would be used if there is not aerosolizing procedures being undertaken). Now if the average hospital stay is 2 weeks (I'm not sure what the actual number is here, nor how many of those days would require ICU, I'm just trying to demonstrate the gravity of the requirements), that's 280-420 masks per patient. I can see how a system would easily get overwhelmed. I found a site that states a pallet of N95 masks have 6400 masks, that would last 15-22 patients. Because most of these patients in ICU would be ventilated, the N95 masks would be used.

Thanks @nutmegoreo!

So NZ's national reserve of N95's would be good for 21,428 ICU patients.

bmeadows380 wrote: »

lkpducky wrote: »

Our biggest problem is that our condo buildings have inside corridors with little ventilation, so if someone passes through, their breath will hang in the air for awhile. And our washers/dryers are communal. We just need to figure out the earliest time possible on a weekend day that doesn't disturb people while at the same time no one will be around. We've been masking/gloving/wearing long sleeves, using our entry way (uncarpeted) as an area to spray everything (shoes, deliveries, groceries) with disinfectant. My husband is also putting together face protection with HEPA filters normally used in AC units.

I wonder if there would be a way for your condo association to perhaps set up times for residents to use the washer/dryers? If it was a small apartment complex, you could probably just set up sign up sheets for time slots, but if its a bigger area, that probably wouldn't be feasible. My experience in college, though, was that most people put their laundry in and then left to do other things, coming back a few hours later (could be a big pain, too, when they took up all the machines and you wanted to do laundry!)

DecadeDuchess wrote: »

SummerSkier wrote: »

OK - so I have an idea. Instead of relying on health officials to do all the legwork. How about we all keep a daily diary of the places we have been and the people we have been in contact with. That way if we do come down with the virus, we already have everything concisely in one place to notify others quickly to try to contain the spread. I know if someone from work called me and said, hey I just got tested positive and am sick, I would take a LOT stronger measures as far as my movements and letting others around me know.

This' a great idea! Since anywhere that I've been I've a receipt of purchase/deposit via, I'll just keep those within order & add strips of paper if I've any contact, that wouldn't otherwise produce a transaction receipt between them.

I hadn't thought of that, but I do keep my receipts together per month to balance my checking account with, so I could track my movements by the dates on the receipts. At least for the places where I purchased something.

Ruatine wrote: »

My manager told me to work from home if I want. In turn, I told my direct report that she can work from home. I'll be starting WFH tomorrow. It was also just announced that all our branches are going to drive-thru only transactions. Crazy times.

In the meantime, I've been helping out my 72-year old grandmother by staying with my aunt with disabilities every other Thursday. My grandmother's been going to a small group while I provide care for my aunt. They are both in high-risk categories. My grandmother's age and the fact that she's a smoker and has high blood pressure makes her very high risk, and my aunt has severe lung damage from being in a fire years ago. My grandmother is still planning to go to her group. If I don't care for my aunt, my grandmother will just take her along. I don't want to potentially spread anything to them, but I also know that whether I help or not won't change my grandmother's behavior.

SummerSkier wrote: »

My other idea is for folks to take there temp on a daily basis to see what their normal is. Then at the slightest sign of a fever they would know because honestly sometimes it takes a few hrs/even a day before a fever gets bad enough for you to notice. Esp if you don't get sick or take your temp very often. At least you might catch the fever a little sooner and altho it might not be this, you would normally keep quarantine with a fever anyway.