Coronavirus prep

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

cmriverside wrote: »

amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?

Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.

No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.

I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.

He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).

The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.

Maybe?

Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.

I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.

Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!

The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.

People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.

I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.

It's not that they're more sensible, it's just that the threat is only hypothetical at this point. Who knows what will happen if actual confirmed cases start popping up.

The bolded makes a lot of sense. Thinking about what might happen if it starts spreading immediately makes me think "if bakeries are struggling to keep up with the demand now, maybe I should stock up on bread before it's too late". That I can relate to.

cmriverside wrote: »

I knew someone was in NZ.

Yep, that's me!

People's reaction on social media to yesterday's announcement is quite funny. So many not understanding that the intention is to flatten the curve, not stop it completely, and even more completely not understanding the requirements of self-isolation (you don't have to lock yourself away): https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-self-isolation

Then there's the ones complaining that if they go on an overseas holiday, they'll have to take an extra two weeks off work. Um, maybe now is not the best time for that holiday, dumbkitten.

And of course some think it's a complete over-reaction.

I suspect the not *actually* shutting the borders thing was a strategic move, because some of our supplies (like some medicines) come in by passenger plane.

cmriverside wrote: »

Doctor provides a much-welcomed positive outlook on coronavirus

Much of news regarding coronavirus is all doom and gloom, but much progress is being made with the virus. Dr. Gordon Cohen, a general surgery specialist in Tacoma, recently joined Seattle’s Morning News to discuss the other side that he and his colleagues are witnessing.

“One of the intensive care unit doctors that I worked with made a comment that sort of struck me, which is: ‘Where all the patients?’ What we’re seeing on the television and the media is creating this widespread panic and fear, but here we are in the hospitals and the intensive care units are not filling up with patients,” he said.

Dr. Cohen provided us with a short list of things that are not terrible about this virus outbreak so far. None of this is meant to suggest that you shouldn’t wash your hands thoroughly or use hand sanitizer disinfecting wipes, or that you should ease up on your social distancing. All of that should still be taken seriously. But Dr. Cohen wanted to suggest that not everything about this virus is pointing towards the end of the world. We have, for example, the numbers in China.



“It appears that the situation is improving in China. The strong control isolation measures imposed by the Chinese government are actually starting to pay off,” he said. “For several weeks now the number of cases diagnosed every day is decreasing. It really looks like it’s plateaued for the most part.”

We also have a virus that can be killed, which is not always the case, and we attacked the coronavirus rather quickly.

“We can actually wipe the virus clean. A lot of times we can’t do that. But this virus could be effectively inactivated from surfaces with either alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% bleach in just one minute,” he said.


“If we compare, for example, to the first cases of AIDS, which were described in 1981, it took nearly two years to actually identify the virus HIV, which caused that disease. Whereas with COVID-19, the first cases of severe pneumonia were reported in China on December 31 2019, and by January 7 in just one week the virus had been identified and the actual genome of that virus was available on Day 10.”

Along with quick identification, there has been, for the most part, global cooperation across the board.

“The scientific community worldwide has jumped all over this. There’s tremendous international science cooperation. And after just one month, there’s about 164 peer-reviewed articles that can be accessed by scientists around the world. That’s huge,” he said. “Whereas with SARS in 2003 it took more than a year to reach less than half that number of articles. So the science community is really acting very, very rapidly.”

Dr. Cohen says that it also should be reassuring that we have a low number of severe cases.

“The disease really causes no symptoms or is mild in 81% of cases, and of course that means in 14% it can cause severe pneumonia, and in 5% it can become critical or even fatal. It’s still unclear what the death rate may be, but I think it’s likely it’s going to be mcjuch lower than what the estimates are so far.”

“People are recovering. Much of the reported data relates to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths. But most infected people are actually cured, and there’s 13 times more cured cases than deaths, and that proportion is increasing because we’re making more and more and more diagnoses.”

While I agree that it's great the coronavirus can be killed with alcohol or bleach at dilutions that are readily available and reasonably safe to use, I find it a little appalling that he seems to think that a small raw number of ICU cases at the early end of incubation just as general community spread is ramping up is a cause for optimism.

And 13 times more cured cases than deaths is a 7% death rate (yes, I know you can't really calculate that because there are cases that have not yet resolved in either death or cure, but you can only work with the data you have, and that's on the same order as what has been reported from Italy -- 6%).

I've seen predictions that 50% or more of the population is likely to get the virus over the next year. A 7% death rate would be around 10 million people in the U.S. dead from this over the next year. Or just think about 1 out of every 28 (7% of 50%) people you know dying from this. That's 3/4 of a person in what I think of as my close family, three or four people in my extended family, another 1/4 person among close friends, roughly another 1/2 person among work colleagues that interact with regularly, one or two of my nearby neighbors ... So that's about six people I know, six people who in ordinary circumstances I would at least consider going to their funeral ... plus nearly 100 people in my church community.

There are almost certainly a lot of infected people out there who have not yet reached the symptomatic stage. And while I hope the strong measures of cancelling events with large gatherings in the last couple of days will stem the spread (combined with more people taking hygiene and social-distancing advice more seriously), those measures still seem to be a bit uneven. We can see in China and Italy that it takes a while after restrictions are imposed to see cases start to level off, because at the point you start there are people who are already infected who have yet to show any symptoms. And the restriction in China and Italy seem to be much stronger that what's happening yet in most parts of the U.S.

I had the same reaction when NBC had an older couple who have recovered on the news Friday evening saying "there's no reason to be afraid." My mental response was, "where's your interview with the folks who have died?"

I think part of the problem in public messaging is that sometimes they're talking to people on the over-reaction/panic end of the scale, and sometimes they're talking to people on the "its no worse than the flu/I'm not going to change my behavior" end of the scale, and in the former case, at least, I think they go so far in attempting to reassure them that it sounds like they're trying to push them all the way to the "don't bother doing anything" end of the scale. It could just be my perception, as I feel like both IRL and online that so far I've been running into a lot more people who think "everybody is overreacting" than people who are panicking.

It might be more helpful if the messaging were consistent on risk and concrete advice about behavior (yes, it will kill some people, and one way we minimize that is by employing hand-washing, social distancing, etc., to flatten the curve so that cases that need intensive care at any one time don't outrun our resources).

@lkpducky & @lynn_glenmont

I know. I'm playing both sides.

I started out on page one saying, "I don't get why we're stripping the shelves." I came to find out it was because there are a significant number of people on one side or the other at any given time and those people go back and forth. It's not a cut/dry dilemma. In one day I can go back and forth three times myself between fear and acceptance. That's the way life works. I try to keep a lid on the fear part.

Fascinating, slow moving train wreck, but certainly not cut and dry.

In the end, I know I have zero control over the big picture. I'm going to die. I don't know how.

AnnPT77 wrote: »

bearly63 wrote: »

I saw this in a private group and thought it was a great idea. Will work for any of your favorite service providers that are getting slammed!

"Fear of the Corona virus is keeping people away from restaurants, who usually operate on small margins. This emergency is having a direct effect on the business owners and the people that work there. So here's something you can do to help:

Go to your favorite restaurant and buy a gift certificate (or preferably, get it online if possible). Buy it directly from the restaurant, so they get the use of your money for a month or two. Then when things have settled down, treat your special people to an evening out and use your certificate!"

We can all do something on a small scale that may help on a larger scale.

This would also be a great time for a donation to our local food banks, for those of us who are lucky enough to not be over-stressed financially by the current situation, so can afford a few bucks. Many accept online donations, so "social distancing" is possible, and even small amounts add up

Thinking about this thread right here, I posted the following on Facebook last night:

Whether you believe there's a "real" crisis or not: If you're feeling kinda OK for your own self, it's *always* a good time for a li'l donation to your local food bank - any one you like. (Money is good - so flexible, for them.) The next few weeks will be a big, unusual challenge for some families. Little bits can help.

Any of our local (name of city) groups will take your money, one of 'em here (at least they took mine).

. . . with a direct link to the secure donation page.

Few COVID -19 confirmed cases still, here . . . but many facilities closed, tipped service people's tips shrinking, unexpected day care costs happening. The need is already here. (A friend who volunteers at ours commented that yes, their inventories are low, and that their bulk buying power multiplies the value of money gifts.)

Also hoping messages like this might give social media a tiny bit of push toward the pro-social. A li'l ol' lady can dream, right?

Great idea.

I've been both pleased and not with NextDoor. Lots of people wanting to help those in need, those struggling due to school closures, offering to pick up stuff for elderly or at risk folks, but then also a few trying to shame them for it--arguing that offering to go out and deliver stuff at all = refusing to take social distancing seriously. If one is sick of course one should stay home, but someone getting groceries or supplies for someone more at risk who does not have another option other than to go out seems to be minimizing risk.

slimgirljo15 wrote: »

I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know

Sorry, sad thought I know

As a single person I actually feel a bit better off. Think about it is two people isolate together there is twice the chance of being infected to start and will infect other one.
I know i daily check in with my sister and her family so she would know but i am really on my own.

Also a friend pointed out all the romantic couples isolated together in December /January there is going to be a baby boom and 13 years later in 2034 we are going to see the rise of the Quaran-teens.

bmeadows380 wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

If we don't have enough tests, we're undertesting, and don't know whether the incidence of XYZ virus in the population is higher or lower than the (number of positive tests) divided by (number of tests) . . . but because we're rationing tests to the most severe cases, we're mostly testing highly symptomatic people and getting a high percentage of positive tests, compared to the number of test performed. And, because we're testing the most severe cases as more testing kits become available, the jump in confirmed cases is extra-dramatic.

so once we get a test that is widely available and can be used on much more people, the death toll percentage will fall and eventually level out to a more accurate number which could well be less than the 4-6% estimated now. Right?

(snip)

Death toll (if you mean fatality rate for the disease) is (number of people who die of the disease)/(number of people who have the disease). Right now, we don't know how many people have the disease.

Theoretically, the fatality rate could go up or down, compared to what's being stated now, because the denominator (number of people who have the disease) is unknown, and the numerator (number of people who die) is going to depend to some extent on things like whether the hospitals/health care system can keep up or are overwhelmed. Fewer people will die if the health care system can keep up.

Trying to help the health care system keep up by making cases happen slower (same number of cases, but over a longer time period) - that "flattening the curve" thing - is what's being attempted now via social distancing measures.

Different countries/regions will have different fatality rates for the same disease, depending on a number of variables, but one is whether the health system can keep up.

One thing for sure, math-wise: Once all of this is over, and this virus reduced (as we hope) to a normal, treatable, potentially preventable disease), we will have enough data to realistically estimate fatality rates for areas with good statistical infrastructure. Until then, it's a moving target, though as time progresses, the estimates should improve as more data rolls in.

At least that's my view.

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

cmriverside wrote: »

amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?

Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.

No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.

I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.

He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).

The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.

Maybe?

Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.

I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.

Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!

The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.

People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.

I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.

I found the explanation Ann relayed somewhat convincing, but this is the theory I've gone with in the past on TP: There are some people who just don't buy TP until they're almost out. During an emergency (like an impending blizzard or hurricane, or the coronavirus spread), all the people who might have ordinarily bought TP over the next 7 to 10 days are buying it in a 24- to 48-hours window, and the ones who usually wait until they're almost out are maybe buying an extra pack, when they would ordinarily buy just one. Now, packages of toilet paper are pretty large. It doesn't take many extra purchases above normal for the shelves to start to look bare, because they can only fit so many large packages on the shelves at once. Then people who don't really need TP, but who don't like to wait until they're almost out before they buy the next package, see the depleted shelves and think they better buy some before it's all gone. Over time, the knowledge that TP disappears ahead of storms or possible medical quarantines starts to sink in, and people start buying the TP defensively "just in case" during impending potential emergencies.

*** **** ***


I'm in the mid-Atlantic part of the U.S., and last weekend when I went to the grocery story, almost everything was still well-stocked, except you couldn't find hand sanitizer, and if you were particular about which brand of toilet paper you want, you might have been out of luck.

I went yesterday evening, which is usually an uncrowded time in the store (it was slightly busier than it might ordinarily be, but not in any way crowded. It was just a few hours after the president announced the national emergency, and it was a very different situation as far as stocked shelves. Still no hand sanitizer. No hand soap. Lots of gaps on the shelves with household cleaning products. I think the only thing left in the "commercial bakery" aisle were two or three packages of hamburger rolls, but I picked up a loaf of rye at the deli counter with no problem (hmm, were other people staying away from the deli counter because they didn't want to buy food they saw a human being handling?), and there was plenty of bread in the in-store bakery section (I admit I passed on serve-yourself bagels and muffins because who knows what the hygiene practices are of the people who served themselves before you).

But I was actually surprised in a weirdly pleasant way by some of the other things that were in short supply or sold out entirely. In the produce section, no bananas, potatoes, onions, one lone head of cabbage, only a few carrots (loose organic ones). I guess some of that was St. Patrick's Day effect (not the bananas, of course). Other than the bananas, that's produce that keeps well for a fairly long time. Lots of bare spots in the meat section (I didn't examine closely as I'm having a meatless Lent). Rice and beans (including dried beans) pretty much cleared out. Lots of bare spots in the dairy milk section, but I still scored some of that extra-protein Fairlife. And absolutely no in-the-shell eggs (a few cartons of liquid eggs were left).

The up-side I saw to that was that I had expected people stocking up on food would be going for canned soup, mac and cheese mix, prepared frozen meals, etc. I was weirdly happy to see evidence that some people were preparing to actually cook food from scratch while they were stuck home.

I was just making my regular weekly grocery run. I've always been one to keep nonperishables well-stocked in case of blizzards, power loss in summer, a car accident that leaves me without transportation for a while, a broken limb that makes shopping challenging, a sudden health emergency by a relative who depends on me to do whatever he wants done while he's in the hospital, etc., so I haven't felt any pressure to buy more or different things than I normally would buy, and I was able to get most of what I would normally buy, or make easy adjustments to something different (I don't normally buy Fairlife). OK, yesterday I did buy a little more junky comfort food in expectation of curling up with a book or video more often in the coming weeks.

I had hoped to get eggs, as I'm eating more eggs during my meatless Lent, plus it's possible I might do a little extra baking while I'm hanging out at home more than usual. I still have about a dozen, and I have some dried eggs I could use for baking, but I may try dropping by a farm or orchard market to see if they have any.

Trying to look on the upside and take social distancing as an opportunity to get things done around the house, relax a little, phone people I don't talk to as much as I should, stop and talk to neighbors (from a distance) instead of just waving and hurrying to do the next thing I think I have to do, etc.