Coronavirus prep
Replies
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I was just at CVS, I didn't purchase anything because it isn't affordable for me, at their regular prices but they did've some toilet paper, Lysol wipes & soup cans.5
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I saw this in a private group and thought it was a great idea. Will work for any of your favorite service providers that are getting slammed!
"Fear of the Corona virus is keeping people away from restaurants, who usually operate on small margins. This emergency is having a direct effect on the business owners and the people that work there. So here's something you can do to help:
Go to your favorite restaurant and buy a gift certificate (or preferably, get it online if possible). Buy it directly from the restaurant, so they get the use of your money for a month or two. Then when things have settled down, treat your special people to an evening out and use your certificate!"
We can all do something on a small scale that may help on a larger scale.
This would also be a great time for a donation to our local food banks, for those of us who are lucky enough to not be over-stressed financially by the current situation, so can afford a few bucks. Many accept online donations, so "social distancing" is possible, and even small amounts add up
Thinking about this thread right here, I posted the following on Facebook last night:Whether you believe there's a "real" crisis or not: If you're feeling kinda OK for your own self, it's *always* a good time for a li'l donation to your local food bank - any one you like. (Money is good - so flexible, for them.) The next few weeks will be a big, unusual challenge for some families. Little bits can help.
Any of our local (name of city) groups will take your money, one of 'em here (at least they took mine).
. . . with a direct link to the secure donation page.
Few COVID -19 confirmed cases still, here . . . but many facilities closed, tipped service people's tips shrinking, unexpected day care costs happening. The need is already here. (A friend who volunteers at ours commented that yes, their inventories are low, and that their bulk buying power multiplies the value of money gifts.)
Also hoping messages like this might give social media a tiny bit of push toward the pro-social. A li'l ol' lady can dream, right?
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The county I live in here in Georgia currently has the highest number of confirmed cases in the state (which doubled overnight). I had to go to the grocery store yesterday morning. Given how packed it was, I'm hoping the speculation that it isn't spread through casual contact, rather prolonged exposure, is accurate.6
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Our numbers in N.C. jumped from 17 the last time I checked last night to 23 this morning. Our county announced our first one yesterday afternoon. I’m having a time getting my head wrapped around how rapidly this seems to be accelerating, not just here, but all over.4
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In Northern Ireland we now have 34 confirmed cases, the shelves in most shops are practically bare and the first minister has just announced that when schools close here it will be for 16 weeks! She hasn’t said when schools will close but there are only around that many weeks until the summer holidays.5
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We don't have any confirmed local cases that we know of in the country right now, but the man who was cleared recently spent a few days in the country before he showed symptoms and self-reported (was in Italy). The government is taking preventative measures in case he did spread it to someone. All air traffic will stop. All schools and universities are closing, no gatherings of any kind (including religious - no church services or group prayers at mosques). They're also closing all bars, gyms, and cinemas. Tourist attractions are closing for a few days to be disinfected. I'm glad they're taking action early.13
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amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.4 -
juliemouse83 wrote: »Our numbers in N.C. jumped from 17 the last time I checked last night to 23 this morning. Our county announced our first one yesterday afternoon. I’m having a time getting my head wrapped around how rapidly this seems to be accelerating, not just here, but all over.
I don't know whether this is reassuring (it shouldn't be, really), and I don't in any way mean to be saying "it's overblown" (it's not), but here in the US, the late roll-out of test kits, now being improved upon, is just statistically likely to give us very quick confirmed-case increases.
Sure, it's partly an effect of the disease contagion, but also an effect of the fact that increasing numbers of people who should be tested (and should've been tested before this) are finally starting to be tested now.
If you look at stories from some of the other countries with somewhat delayed testing, there's a similar effect. It settles out - still to a worrisome rate, but it becomes clear that the early days' reports had statistical distortions in them. We won't have a clear numerical picture, for a bit.20 -
juliemouse83 wrote: »Our numbers in N.C. jumped from 17 the last time I checked last night to 23 this morning. Our county announced our first one yesterday afternoon. I’m having a time getting my head wrapped around how rapidly this seems to be accelerating, not just here, but all over.
I don't know whether this is reassuring (it shouldn't be, really), and I don't in any way mean to be saying "it's overblown" (it's not), but here in the US, the late roll-out of test kits, now being improved upon, is just statistically likely to give us very quick confirmed-case increases.
Sure, it's partly an effect of the disease contagion, but also an effect of the fact that increasing numbers of people who should be tested (and should've been tested before this) are finally starting to be tested now.
If you look at stories from some of the other countries with somewhat delayed testing, there's a similar effect. It settles out - still to a worrisome rate, but it becomes clear that the early days' reports had statistical distortions in them. We won't have a clear numerical picture, for a bit.
^^This.
We jumped from 79 to 101 in Ontario last night. What is of relevance is there's almost 1000 tests pending results. When these come back, I expect the numbers to jump yet again. I take comfort that it looks like more testing is being done, in that it's a devil-you-know scenario that more cases are being identified that likely were going under the radar previously.11 -
juliemouse83 wrote: »Our numbers in N.C. jumped from 17 the last time I checked last night to 23 this morning. Our county announced our first one yesterday afternoon. I’m having a time getting my head wrapped around how rapidly this seems to be accelerating, not just here, but all over.
I don't know whether this is reassuring (it shouldn't be, really), and I don't in any way mean to be saying "it's overblown" (it's not), but here in the US, the late roll-out of test kits, now being improved upon, is just statistically likely to give us very quick confirmed-case increases.
Sure, it's partly an effect of the disease contagion, but also an effect of the fact that increasing numbers of people who should be tested (and should've been tested before this) are finally starting to be tested now.
If you look at stories from some of the other countries with somewhat delayed testing, there's a similar effect. It settles out - still to a worrisome rate, but it becomes clear that the early days' reports had statistical distortions in them. We won't have a clear numerical picture, for a bit.
I was wondering about that, when they were giving death toll percentages; how does it affect that percentage when you start factoring in all the people who have a mild version that we don't even know about?
I just checked the CDC map for the US, and WV still does not have any confirmed cases. And yet, the stores in my area are about empty. I like to use cashew milk and the only place I can get it is Krogers in the county seat. I was shocked when I pulled into their parking lot at 9:30 AM to see that EVERY parking spot in the lot was full! Much of the produce aisle had been wiped out, and 3/4's of the organic milks, including my unsweetened cashew milk, were gone. I had to settle for an unsweetened cashew/almond blend. The canned goods were going fast, I was lucky to get a couple of packs of my shelf-stable horizon milks (there were only 3 packs left), and there wasn't a single bag of flour in the store, and very little sugar. And of course, there was absolutely no toilet paper, napkins, or paper towels at all, and only a couple of boxes of tissues. I didn't go to the milk or bread aisle. I warned my poor sister who was going into work there about the crowds, but told her that it should dwindle down as the evening goes on, because with the rate things are getting wiped out, there won't be anything left to sell!
I also stopped at Walmart as I needed cat litter and was still looking for an elusive bag of flour, and all they had left was a couple of bags of King Arthur all-purpose and bread flour. Thankfully, I prefer to use all purpose, so I grabbed a bag of both - I also like to make my own bread. I didn't check the paper products aisle, but figure they were pretty well decimated, too.
My mom called me after I got home as she had gone to the local store on our end of the county and was needing flour and potatoes and had hoped I was still at the county seat. She said the local Krogers on this end of the county had no flour at all, no potatoes, and that the canned goods were wiped out.
And we don't have a confirmed case yet!
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moogie_fit wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »My OH keeps telling me to stock up on Fritos
I've been seeing stories like these, which are encouraging me to start stocking up for the eventuality of price increases or temporary shortages:- P&G Says 17,600 Products Could Be Affected By Coronavirus In China, Highlighting Supply Chain Risk
- I heard stories about panic buying in New York and Washington states on the news, so I do not have the exact links.
I'm thinking about shelf stable milk. I think reconstituted powdered milk is gross, but have had some ascetic milk that wasn't bad. Don't remember the brand. Anyone have recommendations for brands and best place to buy for best prices?
I was in south Florida for the dreadful 2005 hurricane season, so I believe in preparing for times when stores are not available, although as time has passed, I've done less stocking up.
Buy protein powder a better investment then shelf stable milk
I do have protein powder, for protein powder.
I bought shelf stable milk, for milk.10 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »And you can tell its election season:
I get a voicemail on my phone today from one of my congressmen, as a robocall to update on the virus. It really irked me because he was constantly throwing in there all HE was doing and to call HIS office for updates.....
I'm just thinking how low can you go to use something like this as a springboard for your campaign?
I'm a volunteer for the Town Hall project, and for that I subscribe to the newsletters of the representatives I cover. For the most part, they have sent at least one coronavirus-related email. (So has my bank, insurance company, supermarket, etc.) While I am of course not privy to the exact content of your voice mail, I saw the tone of all the messages I'm receiving as meant to be reassuring, not self-serving.
I do think an email with links to more information would be a better way to convey info than a robocall, but <shrug>.
ETA: I checked my email after posting this and had another email from a bank and another from a representative. That last was 647 words and full of information and links.5 -
cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.9 -
I just talked with a friend who was on a river cruise in Europe when the border closure was announced. Her ship had been hanging off the coast of Italy for a few days while they decided how to proceed.
Since it wasn't clear if US citizens would be blocked from reentering and her ship had no cases of coronavirus she managed to get to California (Newark) Friday morning. She said no one was screened for elevated temperature getting off the plane or leaving the airport.5 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.
I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.
He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).
The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.
Maybe? 10 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.
Oh, well I was only off by half a globe.
I'm glad you're feeling safe. It's weird here in Seattle.
I did go back and read about H1N1 and SARS just to do a comparison. I was not paying any attention during either of those outbreaks.5 -
Why is the UK government is taking this slow approach??
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-518659153 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.
I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.
He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).
The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.
Maybe?
Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.
I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.4 -
I was at Trader Joe's this morning in LA (south bay) area. It was weird. People were shopping quickly instead of the usual meandering they do. Pretty much all meat and frozen veg/meals and canned goods were gone. There was plenty of milk and yogurt, but no soy milk. There were still eggs and bread, but I think they'll be sold out soon. The produce section looked like a normal day so apparently people aren't stocking up on fresh fruit and veg.
I think in a quarantine or zombie apocalypse junk food is critical, but the chips were as well stocked as a normal day, and there was plenty of ice cream available. The woman in line ahead of me seemed to be having some sort of minor panic attack over the lack of bottled water.
For Catholics, the Archbishop of Los Angeles has dispensed with the obligation to go to mass the next 3 Sundays. I don't see anything about that on the archdiocese website, but my parish put out a notice. I'm still trying to decide if I will go. I've had what I am about 99% certain is the flu and I'm almost recovered, but I'm not sure I can make it through mass without coughing at least once and I don't want to cause a panic.
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amusedmonkey wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.
I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.
He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).
The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.
Maybe?
Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.
I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.
Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!
The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.
People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.
I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.4 -
I knew someone was in NZ.
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Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?
Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.
No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.
I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.
He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).
The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.
Maybe?
Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.
I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.
Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!
The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.
People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.
I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.
It's not that they're more sensible, it's just that the threat is only hypothetical at this point. Who knows what will happen if actual confirmed cases start popping up.
The bolded makes a lot of sense. Thinking about what might happen if it starts spreading immediately makes me think "if bakeries are struggling to keep up with the demand now, maybe I should stock up on bread before it's too late". That I can relate to.6 -
Why is the UK government is taking this slow approach??
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51865915
I was having this discussion a couple days ago when we first went on lock-down here in Washington state.
First, government can't win on this no matter which way they go.
When it becomes money or life, of course it has to be life. UK has socialized medicine that already is struggling so there's another layer.
So that's what's mostly being decided with all the lock-downs in the U.S. Immediate life-saving is the most important thing. (?) Short term pain long term gain?
But my other side says, "Maybe it's best to let this play out as Nature intended."
I don't think that's [necessarily] smart, or maybe it is, but it did cross my mind. Sort of a get-it-over-with stance. Not try to control it...because it's going to likely surprise us in a lot of ways. Like someone said in an article I read, "If this virus becomes too successful it kills all its victims and takes itself out."
If we keep tamping it down it's an annoyance forever. It's a complicated dilemma. I am of the belief it will likely find its own level regardless of what we try to do.1 -
cmriverside wrote: »I knew someone was in NZ.
Yep, that's me!
People's reaction on social media to yesterday's announcement is quite funny. So many not understanding that the intention is to flatten the curve, not stop it completely, and even more completely not understanding the requirements of self-isolation (you don't have to lock yourself away): https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-self-isolation
Then there's the ones complaining that if they go on an overseas holiday, they'll have to take an extra two weeks off work. Um, maybe now is not the best time for that holiday, dumbkitten.
And of course some think it's a complete over-reaction.
I suspect the not *actually* shutting the borders thing was a strategic move, because some of our supplies (like some medicines) come in by passenger plane.5 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »juliemouse83 wrote: »Our numbers in N.C. jumped from 17 the last time I checked last night to 23 this morning. Our county announced our first one yesterday afternoon. I’m having a time getting my head wrapped around how rapidly this seems to be accelerating, not just here, but all over.
I don't know whether this is reassuring (it shouldn't be, really), and I don't in any way mean to be saying "it's overblown" (it's not), but here in the US, the late roll-out of test kits, now being improved upon, is just statistically likely to give us very quick confirmed-case increases.
Sure, it's partly an effect of the disease contagion, but also an effect of the fact that increasing numbers of people who should be tested (and should've been tested before this) are finally starting to be tested now.
If you look at stories from some of the other countries with somewhat delayed testing, there's a similar effect. It settles out - still to a worrisome rate, but it becomes clear that the early days' reports had statistical distortions in them. We won't have a clear numerical picture, for a bit.
I was wondering about that, when they were giving death toll percentages; how does it affect that percentage when you start factoring in all the people who have a mild version that we don't even know about?
(snip)
Just talking arithmetic, not trying to increase/decrease the feelz, so let's pretend I'm talking about the XYZ virus (and oversimplifying somewhat):
If more people have the XYZ virus than are included in estimating the death rate, then the death rate will be overestimated, because death rate is (fatal cases) divided by (known cases).
In other words, if the bottom number in the division (denominator, which in this formula is known cases) is falsely low, the result (in this formula, death rate) will be falsely high.
Make sense?
If we don't have enough tests, we're undertesting, and don't know whether the incidence of XYZ virus in the population is higher or lower than the (number of positive tests) divided by (number of tests) . . . but because we're rationing tests to the most severe cases, we're mostly testing highly symptomatic people and getting a high percentage of positive tests, compared to the number of test performed. And, because we're testing the most severe cases as more testing kits become available, the jump in confirmed cases is extra-dramatic.
One other math comment, based on news reports I'm hearing. Most of you already know this, but I suspect some may not, based on RL friends' reactions:
Suppose a news report says "Confirmed cases in Town Z are up by 20%". What this means: If we had 20 confirmed cases, we now have 24 cases. We had 20, we added 20% of 20, which is 4, for a total of 24.
What "up by 20%" does not mean: If that initial 20 confirmed cases was 1% of Town Z's population of 2000, we don't suddenly have 1% + 20% or 21% of the population confirmed as having XYZ virus, i.e., it's not suddenly 420 cases. A 100% increase (starting from 20 cases) would mean that 40 people are confirmed to have XYZ virus, not that everyone now has it.
Apologies, if everyone here already knew that. I know y'all are better at math than some of my friends, but I don't know how much better.
:flowerforyou: 10 -
cmriverside wrote: »Doctor provides a much-welcomed positive outlook on coronavirusMuch of news regarding coronavirus is all doom and gloom, but much progress is being made with the virus. Dr. Gordon Cohen, a general surgery specialist in Tacoma, recently joined Seattle’s Morning News to discuss the other side that he and his colleagues are witnessing.
“One of the intensive care unit doctors that I worked with made a comment that sort of struck me, which is: ‘Where all the patients?’ What we’re seeing on the television and the media is creating this widespread panic and fear, but here we are in the hospitals and the intensive care units are not filling up with patients,” he said.
Dr. Cohen provided us with a short list of things that are not terrible about this virus outbreak so far. None of this is meant to suggest that you shouldn’t wash your hands thoroughly or use hand sanitizer disinfecting wipes, or that you should ease up on your social distancing. All of that should still be taken seriously. But Dr. Cohen wanted to suggest that not everything about this virus is pointing towards the end of the world. We have, for example, the numbers in China.
“It appears that the situation is improving in China. The strong control isolation measures imposed by the Chinese government are actually starting to pay off,” he said. “For several weeks now the number of cases diagnosed every day is decreasing. It really looks like it’s plateaued for the most part.”
We also have a virus that can be killed, which is not always the case, and we attacked the coronavirus rather quickly.
“We can actually wipe the virus clean. A lot of times we can’t do that. But this virus could be effectively inactivated from surfaces with either alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, or 0.1% bleach in just one minute,” he said.
“If we compare, for example, to the first cases of AIDS, which were described in 1981, it took nearly two years to actually identify the virus HIV, which caused that disease. Whereas with COVID-19, the first cases of severe pneumonia were reported in China on December 31 2019, and by January 7 in just one week the virus had been identified and the actual genome of that virus was available on Day 10.”
Along with quick identification, there has been, for the most part, global cooperation across the board.
“The scientific community worldwide has jumped all over this. There’s tremendous international science cooperation. And after just one month, there’s about 164 peer-reviewed articles that can be accessed by scientists around the world. That’s huge,” he said. “Whereas with SARS in 2003 it took more than a year to reach less than half that number of articles. So the science community is really acting very, very rapidly.”
Dr. Cohen says that it also should be reassuring that we have a low number of severe cases.
“The disease really causes no symptoms or is mild in 81% of cases, and of course that means in 14% it can cause severe pneumonia, and in 5% it can become critical or even fatal. It’s still unclear what the death rate may be, but I think it’s likely it’s going to be mcjuch lower than what the estimates are so far.”
“People are recovering. Much of the reported data relates to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths. But most infected people are actually cured, and there’s 13 times more cured cases than deaths, and that proportion is increasing because we’re making more and more and more diagnoses.”
While I agree that it's great the coronavirus can be killed with alcohol or bleach at dilutions that are readily available and reasonably safe to use, I find it a little appalling that he seems to think that a small raw number of ICU cases at the early end of incubation just as general community spread is ramping up is a cause for optimism.
And 13 times more cured cases than deaths is a 7% death rate (yes, I know you can't really calculate that because there are cases that have not yet resolved in either death or cure, but you can only work with the data you have, and that's on the same order as what has been reported from Italy -- 6%).
I've seen predictions that 50% or more of the population is likely to get the virus over the next year. A 7% death rate would be around 10 million people in the U.S. dead from this over the next year. Or just think about 1 out of every 28 (7% of 50%) people you know dying from this. That's 3/4 of a person in what I think of as my close family, three or four people in my extended family, another 1/4 person among close friends, roughly another 1/2 person among work colleagues that interact with regularly, one or two of my nearby neighbors ... So that's about six people I know, six people who in ordinary circumstances I would at least consider going to their funeral ... plus nearly 100 people in my church community.
There are almost certainly a lot of infected people out there who have not yet reached the symptomatic stage. And while I hope the strong measures of cancelling events with large gatherings in the last couple of days will stem the spread (combined with more people taking hygiene and social-distancing advice more seriously), those measures still seem to be a bit uneven. We can see in China and Italy that it takes a while after restrictions are imposed to see cases start to level off, because at the point you start there are people who are already infected who have yet to show any symptoms. And the restriction in China and Italy seem to be much stronger that what's happening yet in most parts of the U.S.
I had the same reaction when NBC had an older couple who have recovered on the news Friday evening saying "there's no reason to be afraid." My mental response was, "where's your interview with the folks who have died?"
I think part of the problem in public messaging is that sometimes they're talking to people on the over-reaction/panic end of the scale, and sometimes they're talking to people on the "its no worse than the flu/I'm not going to change my behavior" end of the scale, and in the former case, at least, I think they go so far in attempting to reassure them that it sounds like they're trying to push them all the way to the "don't bother doing anything" end of the scale. It could just be my perception, as I feel like both IRL and online that so far I've been running into a lot more people who think "everybody is overreacting" than people who are panicking.
It might be more helpful if the messaging were consistent on risk and concrete advice about behavior (yes, it will kill some people, and one way we minimize that is by employing hand-washing, social distancing, etc., to flatten the curve so that cases that need intensive care at any one time don't outrun our resources).14 -
cmriverside wrote: »Why is the UK government is taking this slow approach??
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51865915
I was having this discussion a couple days ago when we first went on lock-down here in Washington state.
First, government can't win on this no matter which way they go.
When it becomes money or life, of course it has to be life. UK has socialized medicine that already is struggling so there's another layer.
So that's what's mostly being decided with all the lock-downs in the U.S. Immediate life-saving is the most important thing. (?) Short term pain long term gain?
But my other side says, "Maybe it's best to let this play out as Nature intended."
I don't think that's [necessarily] smart, or maybe it is, but it did cross my mind. Sort of a get-it-over-with stance. Not try to control it...because it's going to likely surprise us in a lot of ways. Like someone said in an article I read, "If this virus becomes too successful it kills all its victims and takes itself out."
If we keep tamping it down it's an annoyance forever. It's a complicated dilemma. I am of the belief it will likely find its own level regardless of what we try to do.
That slow approach would overload the NHS and lead to far more deaths due to people not getting treated.
As far as killing all its victims and taking itself out, it can still spread for several days (symptoms may appear as much as 14 days after exposure) while the patients are not yet severely ill. If the patients became very sick and died quickly, that would take out the virus.
https://www.thelancet.com/infographics/coronavirus2 -
@lkpducky & @lynn_glenmont
I know. I'm playing both sides.
I started out on page one saying, "I don't get why we're stripping the shelves." I came to find out it was because there are a significant number of people on one side or the other at any given time and those people go back and forth. It's not a cut/dry dilemma. In one day I can go back and forth three times myself between fear and acceptance. That's the way life works. I try to keep a lid on the fear part.
Fascinating, slow moving train wreck, but certainly not cut and dry.
In the end, I know I have zero control over the big picture. I'm going to die. I don't know how.
12 -
I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know13 -
I saw this in a private group and thought it was a great idea. Will work for any of your favorite service providers that are getting slammed!
"Fear of the Corona virus is keeping people away from restaurants, who usually operate on small margins. This emergency is having a direct effect on the business owners and the people that work there. So here's something you can do to help:
Go to your favorite restaurant and buy a gift certificate (or preferably, get it online if possible). Buy it directly from the restaurant, so they get the use of your money for a month or two. Then when things have settled down, treat your special people to an evening out and use your certificate!"
We can all do something on a small scale that may help on a larger scale.
This would also be a great time for a donation to our local food banks, for those of us who are lucky enough to not be over-stressed financially by the current situation, so can afford a few bucks. Many accept online donations, so "social distancing" is possible, and even small amounts add up
Thinking about this thread right here, I posted the following on Facebook last night:Whether you believe there's a "real" crisis or not: If you're feeling kinda OK for your own self, it's *always* a good time for a li'l donation to your local food bank - any one you like. (Money is good - so flexible, for them.) The next few weeks will be a big, unusual challenge for some families. Little bits can help.
Any of our local (name of city) groups will take your money, one of 'em here (at least they took mine).
. . . with a direct link to the secure donation page.
Few COVID -19 confirmed cases still, here . . . but many facilities closed, tipped service people's tips shrinking, unexpected day care costs happening. The need is already here. (A friend who volunteers at ours commented that yes, their inventories are low, and that their bulk buying power multiplies the value of money gifts.)
Also hoping messages like this might give social media a tiny bit of push toward the pro-social. A li'l ol' lady can dream, right?
Great idea.
I've been both pleased and not with NextDoor. Lots of people wanting to help those in need, those struggling due to school closures, offering to pick up stuff for elderly or at risk folks, but then also a few trying to shame them for it--arguing that offering to go out and deliver stuff at all = refusing to take social distancing seriously. If one is sick of course one should stay home, but someone getting groceries or supplies for someone more at risk who does not have another option other than to go out seems to be minimizing risk.10
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