Coronavirus prep

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  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    mph323 wrote: »
    I'm in shock at the number of reported cases in New York (over 29,000), and I believe the number of new cases is doubling every three days. The state with the next highest numbers (NJ) has less than 2900. I don't know if NY is a special case or if we'll see this happening in other densely populated areas. Are they doing more testing than everyone else?

    I think they've done a bunch more testing (91,270 tests), even adjusted for population, but I also think it's because there have been some major outbreaks there. Given what an international city NYC is, it was probably circulating there for a while before the testing became available. I know there have been specific hotspots too, like New Rochelle.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    edited March 2020
    DecadeDuchess wrote: »
    lightenup2016 wrote: »
    DecadeDuchess wrote: »
    lightenup2016 wrote: »
    I wish the US media would report the number of people hospitalized, not just cases and deaths. The number of cases depends heavily on testing (which the CDC is no longer recommending except for the high-risk and/or seriously ill), and the death toll in the US probably sounds "low" to many here who insist this is so much better than the flu. If they included the number hospitalized, they might be able to better see how NYC hospitals will soon be overloaded.

    However what you're proposing doesn't include those, whom haven't sought medical attention yet because of being told to stay home since they'd be sent home anyway.

    I'm just saying that if people see how many of the sick wind up in the hospital, it might make it more clear the seriousness of the situation. If they see a large number of cases but "only" a small number of deaths, it might not look as dire. It's the overload of the hospitals with the thousands of patients, many in ICU, that take the toll on the medical workers.

    I read that in Italy, because of the nature of the illness and the fact that serious cases can wind up in the hospital for 2-3 weeks, that most of those who have left the hospital so far, are those who have died. :(

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-hospitals.html

    Some quotes from that article that emphasize the seriousness of this:

    "The near collapse of many of the region’s hospitals, and the dearth of mechanical ventilators, oxygen and personal protective equipment, has led many doctors to urge patients to stay away. They argue that overloaded hospitals increasingly seem to be sources of contagion, and that infected but asymptomatic ambulance workers sent to retrieve patients in their homes are actually spreading the virus."

    “If a patient has a low likelihood to benefit from the hospital, we have to not accept them. You send them home.” He added, “This is also what I am seeing every day.”

    "And since the most serious virus patients require at least two weeks of hospitalization, practically the only patients who have left the hospital are those who have died."

    I don't disagree with you, I was explaining that it isn't comprehensive.

    I did not at all understand lightenup to be claiming it was comprehensive (so thus not in need of that "explanation"), but that it was a valuable (perhaps the most valuable) measure to track.
  • Diatonic12
    Diatonic12 Posts: 32,344 Member
    @moonangel12 I hope it turns around for your uncle. This thing sticks around on surfaces for hours. It's durable and washing our hands is about the only thing we have as the first and last line of defense against it. I'm pulling for your family. <3
  • mph323
    mph323 Posts: 3,563 Member
    pinuplove wrote: »
    I needed this today. Possibly someone else here can benefit from reading it, too.

    https://hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief

    Thanks, that was a really good read 😊
  • lightenup2016
    lightenup2016 Posts: 1,055 Member
    Question: Those asymptomatic people who test positive--do they develop symptoms eventually, or do some never become symptomatic? In the above example of CA testing temperatures, can they be sure all of the people with normal temps are Covid-19 negative?
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 34,617 Member
    edited March 2020
    lightenup2016 wrote: »
    Question: Those asymptomatic people who test positive--do they develop symptoms eventually, or do some never become symptomatic? In the above example of CA testing temperatures, can they be sure all of the people with normal temps are Covid-19 negative?

    The testing temperatures thing (in what I posted) was just statistics, not diagnosis.

    All that company is saying is that they see a lot of temperature data get uploaded every day (probably thousands of temperature measurements). Under normal circunstances, the number of temperatures, and the percent of those that are fever temperatures, would tend to bounce around in a certain small range. Suddenly, they start seeing uploaded data that's different, maybe more temperatures taken, and maybe a higher percentage are fever temperatures. They have no idea which people have COVID, or don't have COVID. They're just seeing more people with fevers, and in current circumstances of pandemic, believing that most of the unusual variations in numbers are probably due to COVID. Just statistics.

    Google has advanced similar theories in the past, when they saw web seaches on some particular keyword start trending up, in some geographic area.

    I have no idea about your other question, regarding whether asymptomatic cases who test positive eventually develop symptoms or not.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    rheddmobile wrote: »
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    ...

    I ran some math numbers for my mother yesterday which I hope she understood and took to heart: if you have 50% of the some 330 million people in the US get this, with 10% of that number being hospitalized for serious cases, you have some 16.5 million people needing extreme care. If only 1% of those people die from this, that's still 165,000 people. And yet there are still some people who claim this isn't any worse than the flu!...

    My understanding is NOT that 1% of people who are hospitalized die. It's 1% of people who get infected will die. So if you run your numbers again, if half the people get it, then 1% of that half dies = 1,650,000. That's 10 times as many.

    maybe so, but that just means my estimate was extremely conservative; in any case, the big question is whether or not my mother took me seriously. My family typically dismisses me as a "know it all" who don't know what she's talking about.......like when I tried to explain to my mother that baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work. She insists though that because her father had a full head of hair, that my brother will never need to worry about going bald because "it comes from the mother's side". *sigh*

    Um, there absolutely are recessive traits passed on the X chromosome, and since men only get an X chromosome from their mother, the trait passes from the mother's side of the family to her sons, e.g., color blindness. So, yes, that is one way that genes work. A quick Google search suggests that baldness is controlled by multiple genes, so it's probably not straight-forward.
    Even in the case of X linked traits, the mother’s father is not a clear indicator since she also got an X from her own mother, who would not have shown male pattern baldness herself but could have been a carrier for it.

    I didn't say anything about the mother's father's appearance, much less say it was an absolute prediction. I said that it is not correct that "baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work," according to bmeadows. Even if we completely remove consideration of X-linked genes, and think about genes that occur on both the X and Y chromosome, you still get genetic material from your maternal line that could be expressed in your appearance, etc.

    And the mother's mother is as much a part of the mother's side of the family as the mother's father is.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    One thing I've got a question on: how effective really are these temperature checks? I had to go in to get lab bloodwork done today; if it wasn't for the fact that the bloodwork was needed because we're trying to get my thyroid meds straightened out, I would have delayed it. Before I could enter the clinic, a nurse had to check my temperature. My employer also is insisting that if we must go onto company premises, we must do a temperature check first.

    But I thought that you could be contagious for a while before symptoms started to occur, so how does this really effectively slow down the spread?

    Catching some people is better than catching no people. The fact that such checks aren't perfect is a reason why social distancing is needed.
  • rheddmobile
    rheddmobile Posts: 6,840 Member
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    rheddmobile wrote: »
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    ...

    I ran some math numbers for my mother yesterday which I hope she understood and took to heart: if you have 50% of the some 330 million people in the US get this, with 10% of that number being hospitalized for serious cases, you have some 16.5 million people needing extreme care. If only 1% of those people die from this, that's still 165,000 people. And yet there are still some people who claim this isn't any worse than the flu!...

    My understanding is NOT that 1% of people who are hospitalized die. It's 1% of people who get infected will die. So if you run your numbers again, if half the people get it, then 1% of that half dies = 1,650,000. That's 10 times as many.

    maybe so, but that just means my estimate was extremely conservative; in any case, the big question is whether or not my mother took me seriously. My family typically dismisses me as a "know it all" who don't know what she's talking about.......like when I tried to explain to my mother that baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work. She insists though that because her father had a full head of hair, that my brother will never need to worry about going bald because "it comes from the mother's side". *sigh*

    Um, there absolutely are recessive traits passed on the X chromosome, and since men only get an X chromosome from their mother, the trait passes from the mother's side of the family to her sons, e.g., color blindness. So, yes, that is one way that genes work. A quick Google search suggests that baldness is controlled by multiple genes, so it's probably not straight-forward.
    Even in the case of X linked traits, the mother’s father is not a clear indicator since she also got an X from her own mother, who would not have shown male pattern baldness herself but could have been a carrier for it.

    I didn't say anything about the mother's father's appearance, much less say it was an absolute prediction. I said that it is not correct that "baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work," according to bmeadows. Even if we completely remove consideration of X-linked genes, and think about genes that occur on both the X and Y chromosome, you still get genetic material from your maternal line that could be expressed in your appearance, etc.

    And the mother's mother is as much a part of the mother's side of the family as the mother's father is.

    Yep, you’re correct. I was mainly responding to @bmeadows380 whose mom seems to believe that her father’s full head of hair means she can’t be a carrier of male pattern baldness. She’s correct about “how genes work” insofar as such genes can’t be passed on to a son through his father but incorrect about her own inheritance being only through her own father.

    There’s actually at least one exception to the rule that a son can’t inherit x linked traits through his father. There are a few men (about 1 in 500) who have two X chromosomes (Kleinfelter’s syndrome) without being aware of it. The extra x comes from the mother or father with more or less equal chance. Such men could have inherited an x from their fathers.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Italy had another spike today in reported deaths. It should be a lesson to all of us. What I have heard happen is that when Milan was getting ready to lock down, many of their young got on trains and fled the area, concerned to be restricted. This, I believe, is the second "wave" from that. I had hoped their numbers would continue to go down.

    I'm afraid we're about to see numbers of 500, then 1000 dying a day (or more) by next week. We can't go back to "business as usual" until all the doctors and nurses have adequate protection, ventilators, supplies and aren't putting their lives in danger. Perhaps when they are taken care of first (and those at risk with masks and gloves), then we can work on getting masks and gloves for the general public. At the rate our government is getting things done, that would be like end of Summer. I can also see a mass produced stop gap vaccine using antibodies of those that have recovered by then. Give it to those in greatest risk first (the medical providers and elderly and those with preexisting conditions) and then the rest of us. Then, we can all get back to work. But that's four months from now minimum and would require a government to govern.

    At this stage, I have way more faith in the private sector than I do the public sector.

    I don't know where you are, or how you define "we," but global daily deaths have been over 1,000 since March 19 and hit 2,381 yesterday (March 24).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    rheddmobile wrote: »
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    rheddmobile wrote: »
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    ...

    I ran some math numbers for my mother yesterday which I hope she understood and took to heart: if you have 50% of the some 330 million people in the US get this, with 10% of that number being hospitalized for serious cases, you have some 16.5 million people needing extreme care. If only 1% of those people die from this, that's still 165,000 people. And yet there are still some people who claim this isn't any worse than the flu!...

    My understanding is NOT that 1% of people who are hospitalized die. It's 1% of people who get infected will die. So if you run your numbers again, if half the people get it, then 1% of that half dies = 1,650,000. That's 10 times as many.

    maybe so, but that just means my estimate was extremely conservative; in any case, the big question is whether or not my mother took me seriously. My family typically dismisses me as a "know it all" who don't know what she's talking about.......like when I tried to explain to my mother that baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work. She insists though that because her father had a full head of hair, that my brother will never need to worry about going bald because "it comes from the mother's side". *sigh*

    Um, there absolutely are recessive traits passed on the X chromosome, and since men only get an X chromosome from their mother, the trait passes from the mother's side of the family to her sons, e.g., color blindness. So, yes, that is one way that genes work. A quick Google search suggests that baldness is controlled by multiple genes, so it's probably not straight-forward.
    Even in the case of X linked traits, the mother’s father is not a clear indicator since she also got an X from her own mother, who would not have shown male pattern baldness herself but could have been a carrier for it.

    I didn't say anything about the mother's father's appearance, much less say it was an absolute prediction. I said that it is not correct that "baldness does not pass through from the mother's side of the family as that's not how genes work," according to bmeadows. Even if we completely remove consideration of X-linked genes, and think about genes that occur on both the X and Y chromosome, you still get genetic material from your maternal line that could be expressed in your appearance, etc.

    And the mother's mother is as much a part of the mother's side of the family as the mother's father is.

    Yep, you’re correct. I was mainly responding to @bmeadows380 whose mom seems to believe that her father’s full head of hair means she can’t be a carrier of male pattern baldness. She’s correct about “how genes work” insofar as such genes can’t be passed on to a son through his father but incorrect about her own inheritance being only through her own father.

    There’s actually at least one exception to the rule that a son can’t inherit x linked traits through his father. There are a few men (about 1 in 500) who have two X chromosomes (Kleinfelter’s syndrome) without being aware of it. The extra x comes from the mother or father with more or less equal chance. Such men could have inherited an x from their fathers.

    Sorry, I misunderstood your point. And I'm apparently not understanding your point here, as bmeadows didn't say that baldness genes can't be passed on to a son through his father, so your saying they were correct about saying something they didn't say is confusing me.

    Yes, I shouldn't have assumed that all men are XY. Good point.
  • jo_nz
    jo_nz Posts: 548 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    Just got my emergency alert, in case I'd somehow missed that we are going on lockdown. The alert sound on my phone was suitably obnoxious and attention grabbing...

    q1wgbad2xan0.png

    Yep, couldn't miss that! 📣 Hope they don't need to put out too many of those alerts.
  • rheddmobile
    rheddmobile Posts: 6,840 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    Just got my emergency alert, in case I'd somehow missed that we are going on lockdown. The alert sound on my phone was suitably obnoxious and attention grabbing...

    91027955_2852486098176570_7173085461563310080_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=x8bG2ACms38AX9pD7U5&_nc_ht=scontent.fwlg2-1.fna&oh=8b4a0bf7651f720aaf85f983683eedf7&oe=5EA0537A

    Wow - I just looked up your rules and they seem not that different from the “stay at home” order we’re under in Memphis, except for the dire warning about picking your residence immediately. What about people who can’t reach their residence by tonight? Are they doomed to shelter in place in a hotel?
  • Nony_Mouse
    Nony_Mouse Posts: 5,646 Member
    jo_nz wrote: »
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    Just got my emergency alert, in case I'd somehow missed that we are going on lockdown. The alert sound on my phone was suitably obnoxious and attention grabbing...

    q1wgbad2xan0.png

    Yep, couldn't miss that! 📣 Hope they don't need to put out too many of those alerts.

    We have definitely all been told now! And yes, hopefully not. In an ideal world, we go back to Level 3 in a month, and then maybe oscillate between 2 and 3 for however long it takes. I dragged enough work home to keep me going for a couple of months though, just in case.
  • Nony_Mouse
    Nony_Mouse Posts: 5,646 Member
    Forgot to post this cool thing that people are doing in NZ for kids - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120513315/coronavirus-new-zealanders-start-teddy-bear-hunt-for-kids-during-covid19-lockdown
  • jenilla1
    jenilla1 Posts: 11,118 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    I think this is really lovely. Our PM doing a very relaxed evening check in (in her sweats, having just put her wee girl to bed), answering questions live on Facebook. She apologised for the alert siren :lol:

    https://www.facebook.com/jacindaardern/videos/147109069954329/

    Your PM is amazing! You all should be so proud. <3
  • ReenieHJ
    ReenieHJ Posts: 9,724 Member
    moonangel12 wrote: »
    I have noticed a new trend on the news page I frequent - younger people sharing their experience with COVID, and reiterating that it is NOT like the flu. I think the personal stories are good to have out there...

    My uncle in IL is back in the hospital with COVID symptoms and we are told it’s not looking good. He’s in his early 70’s I believe and was fighting major health issues before this all started. My dad is struggling. He is also the one that oversees my 94 year old grandmother in a nursing home near him.

    I'm sorry :( It's a very sad state of affairs to be sure. Take care of yourself!
  • ReenieHJ
    ReenieHJ Posts: 9,724 Member
    Does anyone know the list of most recent state shut downs? I know Vermont and Washington are(I think!) as of 5 p.m. today. What other states are on that list? I google for info and I only get news from a day or more ago, which in this current environment, is already old news. :( Thank you!
  • missysippy930
    missysippy930 Posts: 2,577 Member
    edited March 2020
    Prince Charles tested positive, it’s being reported. He’s self isolating in Scotland. No other members of the royal family are positive so far.
    ReenieHJ wrote: »
    Does anyone know the list of most recent state shut downs? I know Vermont and Washington are(I think!) as of 5 p.m. today. What other states are on that list? I google for info and I only get news from a day or more ago, which in this current environment, is already old news. :( Thank you!


    There are quite a few states. The strictest are NY and CA, but people are being allowed to leave their homes for food, medicine, gas.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Italy had another spike today in reported deaths. It should be a lesson to all of us. What I have heard happen is that when Milan was getting ready to lock down, many of their young got on trains and fled the area, concerned to be restricted. This, I believe, is the second "wave" from that. I had hoped their numbers would continue to go down.

    I'm afraid we're about to see numbers of 500, then 1000 dying a day (or more) by next week. We can't go back to "business as usual" until all the doctors and nurses have adequate protection, ventilators, supplies and aren't putting their lives in danger. Perhaps when they are taken care of first (and those at risk with masks and gloves), then we can work on getting masks and gloves for the general public. At the rate our government is getting things done, that would be like end of Summer. I can also see a mass produced stop gap vaccine using antibodies of those that have recovered by then. Give it to those in greatest risk first (the medical providers and elderly and those with preexisting conditions) and then the rest of us. Then, we can all get back to work. But that's four months from now minimum and would require a government to govern.

    At this stage, I have way more faith in the private sector than I do the public sector.

    I don't know where you are, or how you define "we," but global daily deaths have been over 1,000 since March 19 and hit 2,381 yesterday (March 24).

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

    Sorry, should have said in the US. It's followed (and still continues to) the same exact curve that Italy did. I do realize what you said if you go back over my past posts. I'm in AZ. All I'm observing is that we will be Italy's numbers times our population (times six I believe).

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