Coronavirus prep

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  • ythannah
    ythannah Posts: 4,371 Member
    ythannah wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."

    It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. It's been difficult enough for health authorities to convince some folks that Covid needed to be taken seriously but for others it has instilled genuine terror. I think that will be a difficult switch to flip.

    One of the grocery stores where I shop frequently is still disinfecting the checkout belt between customers, despite the change in messaging about surface contamination quite a while back.

    On the other hand, we've all learned some useful practices about disease prevention that will hopefully serve to reduce germ transmission going forward. One of my coworkers who goes into child care facilities frequently caught every passing bug and was constantly sick, in one year she had strep twice and pneumonia once. She says she will continue mask-wearing indefinitely.

    This actually seems like a best practice without regard to COVID. One customer may put packed raw meat and poultry on the belt, with no knowledge of whether it might have rested in liquid from a leaking adjacent pack or be leaking itself, and the next person might put foods that will be eaten raw on the belt.

    It does create a helluva long queue at the checkouts though. And I'm not wild about my foods-that-will-be-eaten-raw coming into contact with chemical disinfectants (I've put purchases down on a wet belt several times) that probably aren't safe for consumption.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    With the flu, it's usually the very old and the very young who die. That will likely be the case for Covid as it continues.

    The old, so far the very young are the least susceptible to covid.

  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,011 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    Covid will likely be endemic (this is not news, people have been acknowledging that for a while, and it is different than a continuing pandemic), but that's not such a terrible thing in the long run and it certainly doesn't mean that vaccines did not work/should now be dismissed as a failure.

    A couple of pieces I found reasonable and helpful:

    https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/

    "Sooner or later, as a result of both infections and vaccination, virtually everyone will develop some immunity against SARS-CoV-2. This immunity will not always prevent infection, but even if someone who has been vaccinated or previously infected gets reinfected, they will typically develop only a mild form of the disease, because while still not perfect the protection against severe illness that immunity confers is better and doesn’t wane as quickly as protection against infection. Even the protection against severe illness will likely wane after a while, but this won’t really be a problem because, since immunity is much less effective against infection and new people are going to get born who are completely susceptible because they have never been infected yet and won’t be vaccinated, the virus will continue to circulate so most people will be reinfected every few years. Most people see that as a bug, but in a way, it may actually be a feature. Indeed, those reinfections will typically be mild because immunity protects well against severe illness, but they will update immunity and therefore ensure that, the next time someone is infected, this reinfection is also mild....

    Eventually most people will have a primary infection when they’re children, which is perfectly harmless and, together with subsequent infections, will protect them against severe illness later, when infection would be more dangerous if they didn’t have any immunity. Since once people have immunity, infections are generally mild, most people likely won’t even bother getting vaccinated because the probability of becoming seriously ill due to SARS-CoV-2 will be very small since 1) the risk of getting infected in the first place will be low because immunity still offers some protection against infection and the virus will circulate much less after it has become endemic and 2) even if they are infected they will typically be well protected against severe illness. Elderly people will be the exception because their immune system is compromised, so for them it will make sense to get a vaccine booster on a regular basis and I expect that it’s what most of them will do, as they already do against the flu. Once it has become endemic, which again will take a few years or even decades for the transition to be fully over, SARS-CoV-2 will become just another respiratory virus and will never cause the damages it has just wrought on us again. At last, it will have become “just like the flu”, except that it probably won’t be as bad as the flu if only because immunity will be more effective and longer-lasting...."

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/

    "The current spikes in cases and deaths are the result of a novel coronavirus meeting naive immune systems. When enough people have gained some immunity through either vaccination or infection—preferably vaccination—the coronavirus will transition to what epidemiologists call “endemic.” It won’t be eliminated, but it won’t upend our lives anymore.

    With that blanket of initial immunity laid down, there will be fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths from COVID-19. Boosters can periodically re-up immunity too. Cases may continue to rise and fall in this scenario, perhaps seasonally, but the worst outcomes will be avoided.

    We don’t know exactly how the four common-cold coronaviruses first came to infect humans, but some have speculated that at least one also began with a pandemic. If immunity to the new coronavirus wanes like it does with these others, then it will keep causing reinfections and breakthrough infections, more and more of them over time, but still mild enough. We’ll have to adjust our thinking about COVID-19 too. The coronavirus is not something we can avoid forever; we have to prepare for the possibility that we will all get exposed one way or another. “This is something we’re going to have to live with,” says Richard Webby, an infectious-disease researcher at St. Jude. “And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.” The coronavirus will no longer be novel—to our immune systems or our society....

    The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."


    I apologize, I didn't get to click thru to read the article yet, but I don't think the messaging will be that difficult because I don't think this flip is going to just happen one day. As long as a large enough percentage of the world pop is unvaxxed, we will have rolling spikes of new variants that may challenge the immune systems of different people. Anytime a new variant hits a less wealthy area, a lot of people are going to get very sick. If the antivirals they are working on come thru it will help, but we all know what healthcare access is like in the US.

    Anyway, I'd guess it'll be a gradual thing. Localized spikes leading to mask alerts and a death toll will become less and less common. We may possibly be on alert for awhile when a new variant arrives from a not well-vaxed part of the world, like the ebola scares. And just because it becomes endemic doesn't mean it isn't a serious risk for an unvaxxed person or a compromised immune system anytime soon.

    If the common cold coronaviruses started as an epidemic as suspected, it happened a very long time ago. It could have taken generations to go from a scary fatal disease to an annoyance. We're talking about eventually.


    Also, I'm not really comforted by the idea that it'll be "just like the flu" like some people are. Thousands of people in the US die from the flu every year, and thousands more spend weeks, and a lot of healthcare dollars, getting over it. Adding another circulating virus like that just means greater odds that at risk people will catch something nasty and possibly fatal. Vaccinations and hand hygiene will be doubly important.

    Don't mean to be a negative nelly! I definitely hear multiple virologists and public health officials talking about us "learning to live with" covid-19, but it's always centered on vaccinations. The road to herd immunity, endemic covid-19, or some combo of the two, without increased vaccinations, comes from too many more people dying. There have already been cities that have had a second wave, and while it might not have been as bad as the first, it was still bad. I don't think there's any reason to assume there may not be bad third waves, just smaller and slightly more manageable for hospitals. I hope it petering out happens sooner than it feels like it will!

    I disagree with other things too, but I just want to be clear that both articles I posted assumed vaccines as part of the way covid-19 becomes endemic vs pandemic and not so much of a threat. Not sure why the response is to suggest the pieces are anti vax. My main reason for posting was to combat a vax doesn't work post.

    I wasn't meaning to suggest the article was anti vaxx, sorry if it came off that way. I've heard a lot of anti vaxx rhetoric latch onto the idea that since covid will just become an endemic minor thing anyway, we should just let it happen already, so that's what it got me thinking about.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    https://www.wkyt.com/2021/09/30/kentucky-prioritizing-people-need-monoclonal-antibody-treatment/

    Locally the monoclonal antibody treatment has helped several unvaccinated with serious health issues recover from Covid-19. They're several new antiviral new meds in testing that may be helpful as we move from the pandemic mindset world wide. Locally schools are the super spreaders leading to natural immunity in the large unvaccinated population.
  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,493 Member
    edited October 2021
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    ythannah wrote: »
    ythannah wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    The transition to endemic COVID-19 is also a psychological one. When everyone has some immunity, a COVID-19 diagnosis becomes as routine as diagnosis of strep or flu—not good news, but not a reason for particular fear or worry or embarrassment either. That means unlearning a year of messaging that said COVID-19 was not just a flu. If the confusion around the CDC dropping mask recommendations for the vaccinated earlier this summer is any indication, this transition to endemicity might be psychologically rocky. Reopening felt too fast for some, too slow for others. “People are having a hard time understanding one another’s risk tolerance,” says Julie Downs, a psychologist who studies health decisions at Carnegie Mellon University."

    It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. It's been difficult enough for health authorities to convince some folks that Covid needed to be taken seriously but for others it has instilled genuine terror. I think that will be a difficult switch to flip.

    One of the grocery stores where I shop frequently is still disinfecting the checkout belt between customers, despite the change in messaging about surface contamination quite a while back.

    On the other hand, we've all learned some useful practices about disease prevention that will hopefully serve to reduce germ transmission going forward. One of my coworkers who goes into child care facilities frequently caught every passing bug and was constantly sick, in one year she had strep twice and pneumonia once. She says she will continue mask-wearing indefinitely.

    This actually seems like a best practice without regard to COVID. One customer may put packed raw meat and poultry on the belt, with no knowledge of whether it might have rested in liquid from a leaking adjacent pack or be leaking itself, and the next person might put foods that will be eaten raw on the belt.

    It does create a helluva long queue at the checkouts though. And I'm not wild about my foods-that-will-be-eaten-raw coming into contact with chemical disinfectants (I've put purchases down on a wet belt several times) that probably aren't safe for consumption.

    While I'm conscious of my plastic consumption, I do put produce* in plastic bags because I don't want it to touch the belt and come in contact with raw meat liquid OR chemical disinfectants.

    * The exception would be produce like bananas with a thick peel. I'd bag thin peel foods like potatoes because using a peeler would spread any contamination around.

    Yeah you don't know what has been on that belt. Friend just told me about this. He was in line at a grocery store, guy in front of him was sagging and leaning up against the checkout. When the guy turned a bit my friend saw a brown streak on the exposed tidy whities the guy with the sagging jeans was wearing.

    Friend went to a different register and hasn't been back to rhat store.
  • tiptoethruthetulips
    tiptoethruthetulips Posts: 3,371 Member
    In Australia, $1million up for grabs, milliondollarvax campaign with the funds being donated by philanthropists. I'd be interested to know if the rate of vaccinations has a sharp increase in October.
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  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,493 Member
    Have seen some interesting questions regarding why US vax/testing mandates while impacting federal workers, workers with over 100 employees they do not cover welfare or SNAP recipients. Have not really found any good reason why this isn't on the table.

    It's a shame, since in the US the lower income population makes up a large unvaxed demographic.