Coronavirus prep

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  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    Theoldguy1 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Theoldguy1 wrote: »
    rheddmobile wrote: »
    Theoldguy1 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    There are starting to be some (big) groups of Covid survivors who are experiencing continuing serious problems of one sort or another. Now, I know that ranks of such a group are at risk of swelling from some people who are more hypochondriacal than profoundly physically affected, but it's interesting and telling that this is an emerging phenomenon. Some of the groups are working to foster research on the subject, which should be more useful than the anecdotes, in the long run.

    This is one example of reporting on this:

    https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/09/10/covid-19-survivor-corps

    Plus many had comorbidity issues before Covid. Is the Covid causing the problem or something they already had manifesting itself? Just another factor to try and adjust for.

    The thing about that is that people with comorbidities are more likely to be aware of their health, since they are more likely to be under the regular care of a doctor. I’m too lazy to look for evidence right now but there have been multiple studies on this effect - someone who is “healthy” may go for years without seeing a doctor, while someone with diabetes or asthma is likely to see a doctor twice a year in order to get lab work and prescriptions refilled. It seems unlikely to me that someone with known previous comorbidities is more likely to have undiagnosed illnesses which just coincidentally emerged following a bout of Covid than someone whose previous health status was “healthy, as far as I know.”

    Not everyone with a comorbidity knows and/or is getting treated for it. As an example 20% of people with high blood pressure don't know it.

    I'm pretty sure a number of people with excess bodyfat aren't going to the doctor unless they are having a current issue.

    http://www.measureuppressuredown.com/PR/highBPStats_pr.asp#:~:text=High blood pressure (hypertension) is,not know they have it.

    By far, the largest comorbidity was pneumonia, which was likely caused by Covid-19. People weren't laying in bed, in the hospital with pneumonia and then caught Covid-19, they got Covid-19 and then it developed into the Cytokine Storm, which caused pneumonia, which ultimately killed them.

    There are a lot of preexisting conditions as well but pneumonia is what is actually killing most. Now, if preexisting conditions make you more prone to develop it, that's certainly a possibility. But when people are currently pointing to that 94% number having comorbidities as a sign it's not serious, that's just silliness.

    If you are overweight, get Covid-19, then it develops into pneumonia and go into an ICU and pass, there's 3 comorbidities (at least) -- overweight, pneumonia and Covid-19. But the pneumonia is almost always what is killing people. But the pneumonia nearly always happens as a result of getting Covid-19, not vice versa.

    I could be confused, but I think the subthread TheOldGuy was commenting on was talking about the interplay of pre-existing conditions with the "long hauler" people - those with long-term after effects, after recovering from the acute phase of Covid . . . rather than the comorbidities kerfluffle concerning what's on death certificates as cause of death.

    I know he was, but I also think that many are assuming (maybe I'm wrong) that since only 6% are dying with only Covid-19 that many that are long haulers are even rarer and all have preexisting conditions. I've read about many, and mind you that there isn't a lot of data so maybe there are one offs, cases where people are very healthy with no pre-existing condition and become a "long hauler". But I know he was referring to that.

    Yes I was talking about preexisting conditions.

    Thing is, since the majority of the US population has 1 or more of the preexisting conditions it stands that the long haulers do also.

    Last week an UK MD said 90% of population has at least 1 pre-existing Covid-19 health risk. He crunched the numbers and l agreed.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    GaleHawkins wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Speaking of Herd Stupidity, oops, I mean Herd Immunity, German study on cell phone data just came out related to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08?siteid=yhoof2

    So $786 million was injected into the South Dakota economy due to the rally, and the state collected $1.26 million in tax revenue, but it's gonna cost the rest of the country $12 billion in health care costs for treating infections linked to the rally and spread out all across the country? Nice work. :s

    Trillions are being borrowed to cover pandemic cost and we do not have to pay it back. That responsibility will fall on the grand kids. :(What COVID-19 is doing to many retirement income sources is not funny. Short term costs are huge but is just a drop in the bucket when compared to the long costs.

    Can you say a little more about what you mean in the bolded? I kinda don't get it, so I think I'm missing something.

    The main retirement sources I can think of are pensions, social security, and investments.

    Pensions are rare these days, maybe endangered by companies going out of business or disastrously retrenching, but I haven't heard/read much to this effect. Social security does seem to be threatened by at least one of the strategies for putting more money in people's pockets in the short run, but it remains to be seen how that will play out. (Ideology seems to enter in here, but I won't go further than that general statement to avoid partisan political talk.) Investments, so far, if we mean stocks and bonds primarily, seem to be much more even keel so far than one might've expected. I would've thought more people would be dependent on that source now/future, because of defined contribution plans having replaced pensions in many cases.

    What are you seeing, that makes you say the bolded? If it's just the deficit spending worrying you in general, related to retirement, what are scenario(s) are you visualizing?

    I take your point about the grandkids.

    https://fool.com/retirement/2020/09/13/social-security-may-run-out-of-money-sooner-than-e/

    This is just one of many factors for people in the USA. We have known since 2008 SS was going to be cut by 25% down the road so I decided to work to age 70 to get the 32% bonus monthly going forward so hopefully after a future cut I will still see amount I would have received at the age of 66.

    In the USA it seems like the Covid-19 related borrowing is going to come in at around 6 trillion dollars perhaps. 401K's are being robbed per some. Others may just keep playing the markets after retiring and lose that way.

    https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/insight-99-000-stolen-from-my-401k

    Inflation is a risk as well as the zero or negative interest rates that have been promised into the future. Free rent for millions will come to an end in 2021 I expect giving us millions of more homeless people. Foreclosure of businesses, homes and autos have not even started yet.

    There have been few net layoffs yet due to the unemployment insurance bonus payouts. The next 5 years is going to be very hard for many baby boomers with fixed income and run away expenses. Some retires will have kids and grand kids moving in so their expenses will go up.

    If this pandemic starts to wind down say in 2022 then we can start to see the damage level. Hopefully the younger generations will learn from our mistakes and that could be a silver lining from this mess of 2020.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    Noreenmarie1234 wrote: »
    I thought this was interesting that many with mild or even asymptomatic are showing lasting effects on the heart. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

    Only time will tell the real long term effect it will have on people.

    https://newhope.com/vitamins-and-supplements/new-study-points-why-vitamin-d-works-covid-19

    While moving levels can not happen over night maybe this will help cut the Covid-19 costs soon.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    This article was out this AM on Yahoo. Looks like lung function is improving over time in long haulers. Heart damage seems to be harder to overcome. At least some partially good news.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/lung-function-shows-improvement-at-12-weeks-in-covid-long-haulers-study-finds-183711167.html

    @GaleHawkins - I get enough Vit D living in AZ, but most of the studies on Covid-19 dealing with supplements revolve around four supplements -- Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Zinc and Quercetin. At least two studies are underway evaluating these supplements as a prevention from the virus replicating. It won't stop you from getting it, but the hypothesis is it might stop it from becoming serious. I know Saudi Arabia is looking at it and (I think) China as well. I've also read that Quercetin is unstable and some say that it won't work in the body as well as other Zinc Ionophores like Green Tea extract, which can be dangerous potentially.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    This article was out this AM on Yahoo. Looks like lung function is improving over time in long haulers. Heart damage seems to be harder to overcome. At least some partially good news.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/lung-function-shows-improvement-at-12-weeks-in-covid-long-haulers-study-finds-183711167.html

    @GaleHawkins - I get enough Vit D living in AZ, but most of the studies on Covid-19 dealing with supplements revolve around four supplements -- Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Zinc and Quercetin. At least two studies are underway evaluating these supplements as a prevention from the virus replicating. It won't stop you from getting it, but the hypothesis is it might stop it from becoming serious. I know Saudi Arabia is looking at it and (I think) China as well. I've also read that Quercetin is unstable and some say that it won't work in the body as well as other Zinc Ionophores like Green Tea extract, which can be dangerous potentially.

    I was trying to remember why I started using Quercetin several years ago when I decided to try and reverse my 40 year sprint towards death. My son set me up ketolivewelldotcom so I could track my efforts so I logged in to it for the first time in a long time. Under my supplement list under Quercetin I found the following: Quercetin is a flavonol antioxidant providing cardiovascular support by reducing oxidation of LDL.

    For a reference I had https://www.greenmedinfo.com/substance/quercetin

    After I cut out foods containing added sweetener or any form of any grain the early stage did arrest my early stage of lens change it have have been the following that grabbed my attention at at the time. "Flavonoid intake and the risk of age-related cataract in China's Heilongjiang Province."

    In light of Covid-19 the link in the left column Interleukin-6 Down Regulation would be of interest since that could be helpful to reduce or prevent a Cytokine storm associated with Covid-19.

    Supplements can be strange and mystical in nature.

    Covid-19 around here seems to be spreading more and more.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR1A9MkxCvbUiQcdH6llh8FaC8zc1sonHk2OPSvctzGEJL-CLKHjLua4uBs
    Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR1A9MkxCvbUiQcdH6llh8FaC8zc1sonHk2OPSvctzGEJL-CLKHjLua4uBs
    Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus

    Yeah, I saw that. We were talking about viral load and how masks might reduce the severity of Covid-19 if you got it when Dewine thought he had it a while ago (the governor of Ohio). This is interesting. And just more information pointing to you're silly if you don't wear a mask.
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,284 MFP Moderator
    edited September 2020
    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    Speaking of green tea, Mike, anyone else having a shortage of green tea? No bottled or green tea on the shelf for months and months. There's a heavy whipping cream outage, too. They order it but it never arrives on the trucks.

    A rancher on theFarm AG network moment on the local radio station suggested povidone-iodine as an emergency mouthwash to fight against 'Rona. I happen to have gallons of it for livestock/critter first aid purposes. Swish swish. You can rinse your nostrils out, too. I've been washing my face with it for years, especially my eyes when dust, dirt and grit are stuck to my eyelashes and up my nose. I buy mine at the farm implement store. Don't drink it, don't swallow it. We're making do out here with this fluid situation. The pesky tourists are not going home. They are parked/camped in areas all over the national forests and bizarre places.
    We've never seen anything like this before. They are absolutely everywhere. So yeah, the locals are throwing everything up against a wall and hoping something will stick until there's a vax. Groundhog Day.

    No green tea or whipping cream outage here, but I went to the store yesterday and there was not an egg in sight - and the sign proclaiming they were out looked quite beat up, so I think it may have been there a while. Makes me glad my hubby decided we needed pet chickens in the spring - we now have an overabundance of eggs.

    Hubby put us all on vitamin D supplements recently... and I recently discovered a 'muzzle' insert for masks which covers your nose and mouth under the mask and keeps the mask from getting sucked to your face as you breathe. AND it makes it so much easier to breathe! I'm getting a zillion of them...

    Also, of mice and men... https://www.complex.com/life/2020/09/university-of-pittsburgh-scientists-say-theyve-discovered-molecule-that-blocks-covid - so, maybe good news (eventually)?

    Edited because site =/= sight. Also - the English language is weird.
  • Diatonic12
    Diatonic12 Posts: 32,344 Member
    @JustSomeEm You're up bright and early. Me, too. Thanks for the link.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    Good news from Eli Lilly on its antibody development, but I'm being cautious. Even 72% reduction in risk is not enough IMO. Considering we are approaching 1 million world-wide deaths in a matter of months (not years), a 72% reduction is just not enough. It is a good start, though.

    Ely Lilly Claims Experimental Drug Protects Covid-19 Patients https://nyti.ms/2FGW3Pg
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    SuzySunshine99 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Some are saying only 43% now would be necessary. Look, I'm not for herd immunity. It's just happening as a result of very poor communicated messages on mask wearing and people just disregarding common sense. I do think we might hit 600K or 700K dead before it's all said and done, but I don't think that the original projections of 2M dead to reach Herd Immunity is accurate. And as far as the 70%, we simply don't know how many might have had enough exposure while wearing masks to already have immunity.

    You could be right about exposure not meaning immunity. But I think with the T cell information (being more effective and longer term and antibodies), I do think that most that have had it will have long term protection. It seems to be gaining traction that this is the case.

    Sweden's rates of infection are now below pre pandemic levels. Dropping rapidly.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    SuzySunshine99 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066

    This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.

    "Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    @AnnPT77 -- I agree there will be lives lost that don't need to be lost and some by no fault of their own, tragically. No argument there. It's already happening now. I just don't see how it's avoidable in the current environment.
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 28,052 Member
    SuzySunshine99 wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 28,052 Member
    White House abandoned plan to send 650 million face masks across the U.S. in April, report says

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html

    Key Points:
    • The U.S. Postal Service had drafted a press release announcing plans to send 650 million masks across the U.S. early in the coronavirus crisis, but the plan was abandoned, The Washington Post first reported.
    • In April, Postal Service leaders drafted an announcement saying the USPS would deliver five reusable face masks to every residence and post office box in the country.
    • The White House ultimately canceled the program, senior administration officials told the Post.
  • SummerSkier
    SummerSkier Posts: 5,187 Member
    In my alt world utopia back in January when China first shut down and extended their new year the entire WORLD took it seriously and face covers were mandatory. Being in industry our logistics folks started sending daily updates For them to shut down gave me chills and every update I saw from suppliers made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

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