Coronavirus prep
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?
I'm looking at data from those very people. The difference is that I'm willing to ignore when someone makes an emotional case instead of a factual case. This includes when those same leading people make a case that someone with a young child died from Covid-19 and therefore we must all cancel all gatherings of people. I also don't have a pilot's license, but when I see a helicopter in a tree, I know someone messed up.
But you're not looking at a helicopter in a tree. You're looking at a helicopter in the air and saying that the pilots and air traffic controllers are handling it wrong and it's going to end up in a tree.
Do you see what's going on in italy? Are you saying the data there shows this is nothing serious?
Could you post some sources that provide data that shows this is nothing to worry about? I see plenty of every day people posting online that covid-19 is just like the seasonal flu, with similar spread and fatality rates, but not saying where they saw those numbers. Meanwhile I see WHO, CDC, epidemiologists, and infectious disease researchers saying this is spreading very fast and has a fatality rate double that of seasonal flu or perhaps higher in places where the spike overwhelms the local health system.
Start with the joint China-WHO report. It has probably been linked somewhere in this thread. If not, it is probably the most-viewed document on the WHO's website.
Yes, it shows that this has a higher mortality rate than influenza. Whether it does or does not relevant from a practical perspective unless the question is whether any response of any level is worthwhile, even if as simple as more frequent hand-washing. I have yet to see one single person argue that no response at all should be taken. However, the emotional perspective is that the mortality rate is still quite low... maybe not as low as influenza, but still very low. And the point is that panic and emotional responses are ridiculous. My observation over the past weeks has been that some people think everyone is going to die. The point "it's similar to the flu" is not about the specific numbers, but the point that mortality rates are nowhere near the "everyone is going to die" level that some people appear to believe.
If the goal is containment, then the R0 value needs to be brought down below 1.0. This can be accomplished through some social isolation and restriction, but the economic impact will be phenomenal to do that. Currently, there is a lack of direction and enough things are being cancelled to possibly reduce the R0 value, but nowhere near less than 1.0. And we are going to pay a big economic price for something that isn't effective.
My view is that we need to collectively do 1 of 2 things (neither of which is a half-way approach as we see now):
1. Keep living life as normal and be prudent about cleaning surfaces, hand-washing, and responding if/when symptoms occur. This doesn't contain the virus, but it also doesn't carry a big economic price tag.
2. Cancel everything. The only people that work will be essential staff dealing with the outbreak. The government will need to help make this happen with economic compensation (i.e. like temporary unemployment) for those who cannot work from home. Also, a service will need to be established to help minimize store runs and provide needed resources to the majority of people who are staying at home. This may last for a month or more so that everybody who is/was infected is identified and treated before they can continue the spread. In doing this, there will be a big economic price tag (and I'm suggesting the government should help with that), even bigger than today's half-way approach. But at least this will allow the R0 value to reach below 1.0. And ultimately, in order to contain a fast-moving virus (regardless of mortality rate), the only thing that will be successful is to reduce the R0 below 1.0 for long enough.5 -
@T1DCarnivoreRunner I still disagree with your interpretation (mostly regarding the value of moderately slowing down infection rates), but thank you for answering my questions. :drinker:6
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Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick
(but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing![:\](https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/resources/emoji/confused.png ":\")
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.
(((hugs))) I know anxiety makes this harder (one of the reasons I'm very thankful for the way this is being handled in NZ, but I'm anxious for other reasons atm). You are prepped, you know what you need to do to keep yourself safe
If you need to chat with another anxiety-suffering, ME/CFSer, please feel free to reach out to me anytime xx6 -
We have been told that the data coming out of Northern Italy says that the virus is targeting males especially more than women. Children are being affected very little. Men, especially over 60, but we've had deaths of 40 yr olds. One was an ambulance driver. Milan is converting a huge building from their Worlds Fair several years ago into a hospital.11
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snowflake954 wrote: »We have been told that the data coming out of Northern Italy says that the virus is targeting males especially more than women. Children are being affected very little. Men, especially over 60, but we've had deaths of 40 yr olds. One was an ambulance driver. Milan is converting a huge building from their Worlds Fair several years ago into a hospital.
That's really interesting. I think the statistics from China show the same skew. I believe the theory was that in China there are considerably more male smokers than female, but of course that's just speculation based on a single population.9 -
I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?0
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RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.
Are smokers (or heavy smokers) disproportionately male in Italy, as they were in China?0 -
NYC schools closed starting tomorrow until at least April 20th.6
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I caught up with a couple of ex colleagues over lunch today. One of them just emailed that a person who works in her building on the floor below tested positive today. He was last in the office on Tuesday. She might have shared the lift with him. It's been suggested everyone at lunch monitor their temperature.9
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.
Are smokers (or heavy smokers) disproportionately male in Italy, as they were in China?
No, I'd say there are many women smokers too.2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.
Are smokers (or heavy smokers) disproportionately male in Italy, as they were in China?
No, I'd say there are many women smokers too.
Hmm. I wonder if there's still enough of an effect from gendered roles (men "out in the world" dealing with a large number of customers, clients, business contacts, etc., and women in "homemaker" roles with less variety of contacts for disease transmission) to be a factor.
Edited to fix typo.5 -
Was due to catch up with my daughter this weekend, havent seen her for over a year- she lives in UK and I live in Australia.
Not coming now - as all incoming people from all countries have to self isolate for 2 weeks - obviously no point going anywhere for short time if you have to spend whole time in self isolation.
Yes I know this is a neccesary thing but sad for me.
Shops where I live in regional south australia have set per customer limits on several things, TP being top of list.
But shopping, as in lines at checkouts, seemed no more crowded than usual
My small sports club has closed until at least March 31st - no training, games, anything.
all mass events of people over 500 people now must cancel - not recomended as it was last week, but now enforced.
20 confirmed cases in south australia now - in a total population of 1.7 million.
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Another update from the emerald isle.
Pubs & Bars have now been requested to close, there were some taking pretty reasonable precautions like removing furniture to allow for social distancing and limiting customer numbers, but there were some really flouting the government advice (see stag and hen parties dressed in hazmat suits in packed pubs in Temple Bar, Dublin) that it has now just been easier tonsay close the lot til the end of March. Most cinemas, theatres, etc now doing the same. House parties also discouraged.
The panic-buying phenomenon continues, people really are tremendously selfish and stupid, buying far more than they'd need for a couple of weeks of self-isolation.
I am in work tomorrow but working from home the rest of the week as we're manning the office on a rota basis to restrict face to face interactions.
Undoubtedly this will be the quietest Paddy's Day Ireland has seen in a long time.
A lot of my friends are struggling with anxiety issues thank to the sheer volume of fear-mongering on social media and misinformation that's around.
I do hope that the 2 week closedowns of schools, libraries, museums, pubs, etc can relieve the pressure on the healthcare system and it's fantastic workers. This is going to be a long-haul challenge.9 -
I'm sorry Paperpudding! Being separated from loved ones is one of the most difficult aspects of all this. Hugs!3
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OKC mayor on tv now. Declared a state of emergency because it is verified we had a locally spread case. Didn’t say from who, but hinted? He limited public meetings to 50, but strongly suggested just don’t have any, cancelled all concerts, etc., closed city libraries. He said he won’t close restaurants yet, but may soon. Suggested carry out or delivery for now, don’t eat in. Right now our count is 7.
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snowflake954 wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.
Are smokers (or heavy smokers) disproportionately male in Italy, as they were in China?
No, I'd say there are many women smokers too.
The smoking rate among men in Italy is 28.3%, for women it's 19.7%
Source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/5 -
So one of the ex colleagues I had lunch with is a native of Wuhan. She said the Chinese response was so quick because it is a dictatorship with a planned economy. They could literally tell a company that normally manufactures T-shirts to switch to producing face masks. Similarly telling a perfume company to make hand sanitizer.16
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Nony_Mouse wrote: »
(((hugs))) I know anxiety makes this harder (one of the reasons I'm very thankful for the way this is being handled in NZ, but I'm anxious for other reasons atm). You are prepped, you know what you need to do to keep yourself safe
If you need to chat with another anxiety-suffering, ME/CFSer, please feel free to reach out to me anytime xx
Thank you. You are amazing.
You're right. Anxiety makes everything harder. I think I would feel better if we could just work from home. Again, we can do our jobs remotely. We don't interact with direct customers. I have even worked from home before (once as a trail/test for the system they had a number of us do it and then I was allowed after my dad passed away) and my bosses are 100% for it. Fingers crossed that something changes as the week goes on.
Groceries here seem to be hit or miss. My one friend went to one store and had no trouble getting what she needed but did say basics like eggs and bread were low. However, my cousin had to go to 3 stores before finding a gallon of milk. I will need to go shopping by the end of this week so I am hoping the stores can catch up. I am going to leave work early on Thursday (I have some random time leftover (1.5 hours and I will get more days on Friday) to go shopping and I will have a list of what I would like to have and then like 3-4 backup ideas. Then I won't be caught unprepared.
We have 121 tested now in Indiana with 19 cases. Cases have been found in both the county I work in and where I live. So yay. I honestly have pretty much come to terms that I will get it and only hope it doesn't hit me too hard.4 -
California, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts close bars and restaurants in effort to slow coronavirus
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/15/coronavirus-bars-restaurants-closed-states/5055634002/
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