Coronavirus prep
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Good morning friends,
The roads are empty here in Maryland. Overnight the world death cost went from 9 to 10k the known infected rate is now 240k . I am worried. Those of you on this thread are keeping me sane regarding this so thank you.13 -
Correct, hence the bolded and asterisked disclaimer saying that I could not confirm it. I hesitated posting for that reason, but it’s not a far stretch of the imagination as people get desperate. So even if it were not 100% true at this moment, it’s something people need to consider (and prep for, in the spirit of the thread title) as people around them might feel they have no other options, or just don’t care.lynn_glenmont wrote: »moonangel12 wrote: »Someone mentioned looting, and now I can’t find the post to quote it...
*now, this is through word of mouth, I can’t confirm it* but wanted to mention so people could be aware because it will likely be a reality soon if it isn’t right now...
My aunt in Ohio said they have already had home invasions in her area for food and basic supplies - people kicking in doors at ridiculous hours in the night holding homeowners at gunpoint. (They don’t live in the best area, but also not the worst). Something that had crossed my mind (thanks to a book series I read a couple years ago), but hadn’t really thought would be a reality for our situation just yet.
As this continues, be mindful of locking doors and taking precautions. Start talking about self/family defense now. Get a game plan with any children that might be in the home. We aren’t panicking, but we are aware of what could be as things progress.
Just want to point out that this seems like the sort of thing that would end up in the news if it were happening, but a Google search (Ohio home invasions for food) did not turn up any news stories that matched the reported facts.
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Regarding the low death rate in Germany, I found an article this morning that says that they are testing 160,000 people a day. So it's more likely the fact that they are picking up most of the mildly symptomatic cases than that they have developed a miracle treatment regimen.9
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goldthistime wrote: »Regarding the low death rate in Germany, I found an article this morning that says that they are testing 160,000 people a day. So it's more likely the fact that they are picking up most of the mildly symptomatic cases than that they have developed a miracle treatment regimen.
Any indication of how they got all the tests?
Do you know if they isolated quicker resulting in a lower amount of deaths. What’s the articles reasoning for the lower death rates? Detecting it alone shouldn’t be a reason for the lower death rate. How are they treating it? I would think that treatment would be a key factor in this.0 -
Detecting mild cases will definitely lower the death rate. I posted an article earlier in the thread about Iceland, who is also testing a higher proportion of their population than most countries. The numbers were still limited, but at that time almost 50% of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. It won't change the total number of deaths, but catching and counting the milder cases in the denominator will drive the death rate percentage down.missysippy930 wrote: »goldthistime wrote: »Regarding the low death rate in Germany, I found an article this morning that says that they are testing 160,000 people a day. So it's more likely the fact that they are picking up most of the mildly symptomatic cases than that they have developed a miracle treatment regimen.
Any indication of how they got all the tests?
Do you know if they isolated quicker resulting in a lower amount of deaths. What’s the articles reasoning for the lower death rates? Detecting it alone shouldn’t be a reason for the lower death rate. How are they treating it? I would think that treatment would be a key factor in this.12 -
missysippy930 wrote: »goldthistime wrote: »Regarding the low death rate in Germany, I found an article this morning that says that they are testing 160,000 people a day. So it's more likely the fact that they are picking up most of the mildly symptomatic cases than that they have developed a miracle treatment regimen.
Any indication of how they got all the tests?
Do you know if they isolated quicker resulting in a lower amount of deaths. What’s the articles reasoning for the lower death rates? Detecting it alone shouldn’t be a reason for the lower death rate. How are they treating it? I would think that treatment would be a key factor in this.
Here is my source. Apologies for not linking it earlier. https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
ETA: I neglected to mention that it's hit more young people, but imo, that's also because of more testing. In case it's behind a paywall
"According to Lothar Wieler, the president of the Robert Koch Institute, German laboratories are now conducting about 160,000 coronavirus tests every week — more than some European countries have carried out in total since the crisis started. Even South Korea, which is conducting 15,000 tests a day and has been held up by virologists as an example to follow, appears to be testing less than Germany.
“This is about capacity. The capacity in Germany is very, very significant. We can conduct more than 160,000 tests per week, and that can be increased further,” Prof Wieler told journalists this week. Test capabilities would be boosted not least in part by switching laboratories that specialise in animal health towards coronavirus checks. There was no sign that test kits were running low, Prof Wieler added.
In the short term at least, mass testing feeds through into a lower fatality rate because it allows authorities to detect cases of Covid-19 even in patients who suffer few or no symptoms, and who have a much better chance of survival. It also means that Germany is likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than countries where testing is less prevalent. Indeed, one notable feature of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany so far is the high number of relatively young patients: according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, more than 80 per cent of all people infected with the coronavirus are younger than 60."
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I believe that low death rates, due to increased testing's because those that've it but aren't experiencing symptoms're found & then're put into quarantine sooner, which limits them via transmitting it to others. Plus they'll have access to respirators, prior to their condition worsening.4
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Detecting mild cases will definitely lower the death rate. I posted an article earlier in the thread about Iceland, who is also testing a higher proportion of their population than most countries. The numbers were still limited, but at that time almost 50% of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. It won't change the total number of deaths, but catching and counting the milder cases in the denominator will drive the death rate percentage down.
This is why whenever I can I explain how the death rate is figured. I point out that it is based on known cases and that the actual infection numbers could be higher. That would mean that right now the death rate is skewed higher. We are not currently catching all the possible infections out there, but only the more serious ones that match a very specific set of criteria. It's basic statistics. I don't think that we will have a perfect idea of the actual death rate after only one round of this. It would take multiple years of study to do so.
Indiana stats:
380 tested
56 cases
2 deaths
So the tested numbers jumped quite a bit, but the cases and deaths have held pretty solid. I don't expect that to continue.
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My 71 year old mother with multiple health issues refuses to stay home. Even after I told her how serious this was to the point she was crying... still she will not stay at home.
Any advice?
I have this same problem with my elderly parents (late 70's) and mother in law (mid 80's). My husband and I ran the neighborhood yesterday and his mom was outside being lead by the arm by her neighbor back to her house. Seems she had to go visit them to take their mail instead of putting it back in the box. We couldn't get her to understand that the neighbors were being nice but now she has put them and herself at risk. My mother let her bowling league decide her fate. She said she wouldn't stop bowling until they closed the doors......which they finally did........
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More on the group of people infected in a small town called Fondi about an hour and a half south of Rome. 47 are infected as of yesterday and they are all seniors that were at a party for Carnevale Feb 25. That's 3 weeks ago! Yikes!9
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If you catch the virus from attending a public social event after you were officially warned not to attend public social events, you should get in the back of the line for any medical services.13
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Just got home from the store, specifically Aldi. It was quite busy. People were lined up before 9am but everyone was very polite. They were better stocked then I had worried about, but they were out of the normal bread, flour, all paper products, and most meats except for ground beef and chicken. Still, I was able to get everything I needed plus a little bit extra. Except for fresh items, I shouldn't need groceries for 2-3 weeks which allows me to stay home 99% of the time. I did wear gloves and bring alcohol wipes for the carts because of health concerns that make me a bit more high risk.4
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Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.13 -
Have been offline for a few days and didn't go back to read all the comments, so apologize if this has already been brought up. Has anyone seen this story:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fourth-member-jersey-family-dies-000305798.html
Combined with what is happening in Italy, couldn't help but wonder if people of Italian descent are somehow more genetically vulnerable to this virus. Is that possible?0 -
I check this link everyday to put our situation in the US in context. Some interesting graphs. Be sure to scroll down the the one that shows how many people per million are being tested; we are so far behind. Last updated, yesterday morning (as of me posting this).
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong1 -
The thing that got my attention about Germany is the fact that even with the high number of total cases they have, the total deaths were very, very low compared to everyone else who had similar total cases. I wasn't so much at the total death rate percentage, as I know that will be brought down with the total number of cases detected as it will catch the mild ones, but that their total deaths period were significantly lower than anyone else. So I thought they had to be doing something that the rest of us weren't, and it sounds like they are - they apparently took this seriously from the get go and have tested way more than anyone else had, which, like someone else mentioned, would make ti easier to catch the people with milder versions and get them out of the general population.
so kudos to Germany!
*sigh* and sometimes I wish they'd shut down facebook and twitter in times of crisis like this because of the sheer amount of nonsense that spreads like wildfire. I texted my cousin this morning about meeting her to drop some things off, and she said that she hoped the gas station nearby wasn't going to be out of gas. I was confused until I realized she gets her news from facebook. So I guess there must be a facebook viral posting that gas stations are going to be running out of gas now......
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MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »I just received an email from the center where I donate blood. They are starting to get critically low and are urging people to give. Many blood drives have been cancelled but one near me is still being held on Monday so I just made an appointment. Other than being around people, this is normally a sanitary environment anyway. They outlined their procedures to keep everyone safe:
Donor Health & Registration:- All donor-facing staff will have their temperature taken prior to beginning their work day
- Donors temperatures will be taken at registration to ensure they are not elevated prior to entering donation areas
- Donors will be asked if they are currently experiencing coughing or shortness of breath
- Donors will be asked if they have recently traveled to high-risk countries as defined by the CDC
- If any of the above is true, donors will be asked to self-defer
Social Distancing:- We encourage all donors to make an appointment to lessen the amount of people waiting at our blood drives
- Ensuring six feet of space between chairs in waiting areas and cafe
- Ensuring six feet of space between donation chairs and/or separation with medical screens
- If appointment registration congestion occurs, we will ask for your cell phone number and text when your appointment is ready
Cleaning:- We clean all equipment, beds, and other surfaces after each donor finishes their donation
- Changing gloves frequently and between donors is part of our normal practice
- We will maintain sanitized pen bins, so donors are only using clean pens at sign-in
I had heard appeals for donors on the local news today, so I went to the Red Cross site to look for locations and times to make an appointment, but even looking 10 days out, they only want AB plasma donors and platelet donors. No appointments available for whole blood donations, which is all I've ever done. I'm not AB, so I can't give AB plasma. Maybe the problem isn't lack of donors so much as lack of opportunities (blood drives, etc.) where people can donate.
I guess it bummed me out so much because after nearly a week of #StayingHome , just "not doing" (not going out, not meeting people for meals, not going to work, not going to church) doesn't feel like much of a contribution. I want to do something that helps the situation. I offered to get groceries for an older relative with underlying health issues who shouldn't be going out, but he's determined to keep going out anyway. The few neighbors who are older than me have networks of friends and families to help.
Like anything else, blood needs are regional and cyclical. Where I am (large metropolitan area) they need pretty much everything right now. Also, do you have other blood collectors besides the Red Cross? It could be that one is running low and the other isn't.
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Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.16 -
spiriteagle99 wrote: »The Governor of Pennsylvania has ordered all "non-life-sustaining" business to close as of 8 pm. No warning. Fines if you continue to operate. Suddenly the entire state is unemployed. It's not quite a shelter in place order, but not far from it. Still no cases in my county.
I work for a company located in a county in Florida considering essentially the same thing.
Here's more on Pennsylvania https://lancasteronline.com/news/gov-wolf-s-order-to-shut-down-non-life-sustaining/article_18fc32e4-6aaa-11ea-9a08-173a8658f284.html
Gov. Wolf's order to shut down non-life sustaining businesses met with criticism, concern
...“First, as Governor Wolf should have learned through the National Governor’s Association, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) has asked America’s governors to designate ALL ‘manufacturing facilities, supply chains and their employees as “essential infrastructure” and “essential businesses” to assure clear, consistent and more uniformly aligned guidance to businesses as our nation responds to the COVID19 pandemic,’ said a statement from the association's president and CEO David N. Taylor.0 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.
I know things seem bleak and surreal right now, but we have to try to focus on the positive as much as possible. Maintaining good mental health is important right now.
The TX coast has also seen a multitude of young people (and not so young people) partying on the beaches. I fear that the kind of selfish and short-sighted behavior is going to be detrimental to our containment efforts.
There are many stories going around right now about neighbors pulling together to help each other.
Good news story: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-maryland-boy-carepackages-seniors-feed-students
(ETA: Reddit has a dedicated sub for staying up to date with covid-19. Filtering for posts with the "Good News" flair gives some great, positive stories: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/?f=flair_name:"Good News")4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.
This means we will potentially have far less than 5x's the number of cases and deaths as Italy. We are a country with 320 million with the same *total number of infections* as a country of 60 million, that is great (if that trend holds up.)
I live in Ohio as well, and I feel like our Governor really jumped up and lead well ahead of the rest of the country. For example, Louisiana and Ohio each had their first case at the same time. Ohio has 88 cases and no deaths. Louisiana has 347 cases and 8 deaths. Ohio's population is 11.6 million vs Louisiana's 4.6 million, so we should have over twice as many cases and deaths. Social distancing is huge and the regions who did promptly and thoroughly are going to suffer far less.6 -
Have been offline for a few days and didn't go back to read all the comments, so apologize if this has already been brought up. Has anyone seen this story:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fourth-member-jersey-family-dies-000305798.html
Combined with what is happening in Italy, couldn't help but wonder if people of Italian descent are somehow more genetically vulnerable to this virus. Is that possible?
Well--a lot of Chinese died too.8 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.
I know things seem bleak and surreal right now, but we have to try to focus on the positive as much as possible. Maintaining good mental health is important right now.
The TX coast has also seen a multitude of young people (and not so young people) partying on the beaches. I fear that the kind of selfish and short-sighted behavior is going to be detrimental to our containment efforts.
There are many stories going around right now about neighbors pulling together to help each other.
Good news story: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-maryland-boy-carepackages-seniors-feed-students
(ETA: Reddit has a dedicated sub for staying up to date with covid-19. Filtering for posts with the "Good News" flair gives some great, positive stories: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/?f=flair_name:"Good News")
All of us will go through the five stage of grief. I'm long past acceptance and in Depression. I've found that the sooner you get through these, the sooner I move onto acceptance and inner strength.
I see light at the end of the tunnel already, but at this point, just want to keep my wife safe.
https://grief.com/the-five-stages-of-grief/10 -
Have been offline for a few days and didn't go back to read all the comments, so apologize if this has already been brought up. Has anyone seen this story:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fourth-member-jersey-family-dies-000305798.html
Combined with what is happening in Italy, couldn't help but wonder if people of Italian descent are somehow more genetically vulnerable to this virus. Is that possible?
I think it is more cultural. Elderly population with multiple generations living in one home, less social distancing day to day, a lot of festivals in February at the worst possible time, and more defiant about being quarantined. Plus a lot of tourism.13 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Have been offline for a few days and didn't go back to read all the comments, so apologize if this has already been brought up. Has anyone seen this story:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fourth-member-jersey-family-dies-000305798.html
Combined with what is happening in Italy, couldn't help but wonder if people of Italian descent are somehow more genetically vulnerable to this virus. Is that possible?
Well--a lot of Chinese died too.
Italy has a higher percentage of people over 80, which is one reason suggested for their high rate of fatalities.
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@Bry_Fitness70 You're correct (your post 3 back) and while I live out in the middle of nowhere...folks here are concerned about that kind of despair. Our schools are closed with commercial air cleaning machines going. They will be used as hospitals.
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MikePfirrman wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.
I know things seem bleak and surreal right now, but we have to try to focus on the positive as much as possible. Maintaining good mental health is important right now.
The TX coast has also seen a multitude of young people (and not so young people) partying on the beaches. I fear that the kind of selfish and short-sighted behavior is going to be detrimental to our containment efforts.
There are many stories going around right now about neighbors pulling together to help each other.
Good news story: https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-maryland-boy-carepackages-seniors-feed-students
(ETA: Reddit has a dedicated sub for staying up to date with covid-19. Filtering for posts with the "Good News" flair gives some great, positive stories: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/?f=flair_name:"Good News")
All of us will go through the five stage of grief. I'm long past acceptance and in Depression. I've found that the sooner you get through these, the sooner I move onto acceptance and inner strength.
I see light at the end of the tunnel already, but at this point, just want to keep my wife safe.
https://grief.com/the-five-stages-of-grief/
I can tell you that you can only do so much. You've prepared, you've told, and now you wait and hope. This will pass.9 -
snowflake954 wrote: »More on the group of people infected in a small town called Fondi about an hour and a half south of Rome. 47 are infected as of yesterday and they are all seniors that were at a party for Carnevale Feb 25. That's 3 weeks ago! Yikes!
This is the part that is exhausting for me mentally. Were we safe enough at the grocery? Should we have used the bathroom at the park? We won’t know for another two weeks.
In Shelby County our first cases were two people who had traveled to New Orleans for Mardi Gras. Reading about them, my first impulse was to think, “Stupid idiots traveling in the middle of a disaster...” but then I noticed the timeline. The first cases in New Orleans were not until well after the end of the Mardi Gras season. There was no reason for them even to be thinking about Coronavirus at the time they were infected, or to self quarantine when they got back. By the time symptomatic people with the virus have appeared in significant numbers in a community, it’s far too late and many, many people are already infected, just not yet showing symptoms.
For this reason I am so grateful to you for trying to persuade us Americans to pay attention to what is happening in Italy, to try to halt the progress while we still can. I’m afraid we’re past that point now and it’s going to get very bad very quickly.12 -
Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Bry_Fitness70 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Italy is being told that their "peak" is around 10 days from now. Nearly 500 per day dying and 6000 new cases yesterday with stressed to the max hospitals already. I had hoped the number would plateau, but it unfortunately hasn't. The only good news for them is everyone is taking it deadly serious. I wish I could say the same here.
@Snowflake -- I'm in constant contact with others in Italy (indoor rowing buddies of mine). I'm praying for you all, even though I know it's going to be the same here. Please pray for us in a few weeks as well. We will need it.
Saw this today - if we agree on the timeline, the US was trending closely with Italy (it has since grown at a larger pace.) The good news is, the US has five times the population (60 million vs 320 million), so the magnitude is much less. (Not sure why California was dropped in with a different timeline)
This, to me, just means we will have 6X the deaths. So, they have 500 a day, we are going to have 3000 a day. I fear it's unavoidable at this stage. I've told all my siblings in Ohio (all at risk) that I love them. One, likely the most at risk, has a son that is a security guard at a local hospital. He has it at their house in isolation. Feeling very sad today. I'm sorry.
The fact that young people are partying on beaches is disgusting. Florida will be awful.
This means we will potentially have far less than 5x's the number of cases and deaths as Italy. We are a country with 320 million with the same *total number of infections* as a country of 60 million, that is great (if that trend holds up.)
I live in Ohio as well, and I feel like our Governor really jumped up and lead well ahead of the rest of the country. For example, Louisiana and Ohio each had their first case at the same time. Ohio has 88 cases and no deaths. Louisiana has 347 cases and 8 deaths. Ohio's population is 11.6 million vs Louisiana's 4.6 million, so we should have over twice as many cases and deaths. Social distancing is huge and the regions who did promptly and thoroughly are going to suffer far less.
DeWine has been great and acted far earlier than other governors with so few cases. (An aside, I was good friends with one of his (many) kids in school and feel happy that he's doing a good job even if I have disagreements with him on some other things. His kid really liked him as a dad and talked him up -- he was Lt Gov then.)
I think the number of cases is still not even close to identified, though. My state (IL) has been testing way more than some other states and yet as of Sunday we had only 93 (mostly in my major metro area), and on Monday 105. But then when the tests from when more tests started to be available came back we jumped to 160 on Tuesday, 288 on Wednesday, and 422 yesterday. And still mostly in and around the big city I live in, with more jumps likely. I think the breakout of CA on that chart might be showing CA vs Italy as similar population areas? Not sure.
IN had as of Wednesday more deaths than us (1 vs. 2, we had 3 more yesterday, don't know about IN), but a tiny number of identified cases vs. us and also a tiny number of tests vs. us. There's no way they don't have a bunch more cases than they've identified. If Chicago metro is swimming in cases the IN part of that is too.3
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