Coronavirus prep
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richardgavel wrote: »Our Mayor in Chicago said if the young people don't start wearing masks and practice social distancing, we are going back to Phase 3 which means closing businesses, restaurants, salons and THE GYM!!!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!
And yet, I haven't seen anyone at the gym without a mask. They are cleaning the equipment. So what is the value of closing places that based on the science, are low risk to spread? I though decisions were being made based on facts and science.
Somewhat facts and science. Somewhat dependent on whim (like when the garden centers of big box stores were open but the independent garden shops had to close). Sort of like when the teacher punishes the whole class because a few kids are acting up.
I agree, have been to my gym a couple times. Masks where they're supposed to be worn, everyone that walks in gets a cleaning towel and disinfectant spray bottle (plus the staff is constantly cleaning).0 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »richardgavel wrote: »Our Mayor in Chicago said if the young people don't start wearing masks and practice social distancing, we are going back to Phase 3 which means closing businesses, restaurants, salons and THE GYM!!!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!
And yet, I haven't seen anyone at the gym without a mask. They are cleaning the equipment. So what is the value of closing places that based on the science, are low risk to spread? I though decisions were being made based on facts and science.
Somewhat facts and science. Somewhat dependent on whim. Sort of like when the teacher punishes the whole class because a few kids are acting up.
I agree, have been to my gym a couple times. Masks where they're supposed to be worn, everyone that walks in gets a cleaning towel and disinfectant spray bottle (plus the staff is constantly cleaning).
I have been to my old gym and my new gym (I switched to a closer, less crowded one). People are doing really good at social distancing. At my new gym - everyone cleans. At my old gym, I didn't see that many people cleaning. It was also busier and harder to maintain social distance. My new gym also has the doors open and fans going to circulate the outdoor air in and the indoor air out (because the AC sucks...but it moves the air and dissipates people's breaths).
I think it depends on the type of gym. I now to go to a weightlifting only gym. People are really good at being away from other people and carrying around cleaning supplies. Other gyms that are bigger on group classes and stuff may have a far harder time.4 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »If you look at that Johns Hopkins link I posted above, you'll see that our rate of death per case is 3.9% (edit - in the U.S.) and Germany's is 4.5%, so again - not sure what the point was there. Sweden is at 7.3%, UK at 15.4%.
Death per cases is not a reliable stat, because many or most with coronavirus aren't being tested. That's why the best comparison is death per millions.
In addition, deaths per cases is not a reliable stat because our incidence of new cases is rising so fast. The majority of our cases are not yet resolved. You cannot treat all those unresolved cases as cases that did not result in death. Many of them will still result in deaths (based on current figures on the Johns Hopkins site, as many as 11% of those unresolved cases in the U.S. will end in death -- and if you consider that rising cases means greater strain on the health care system and potentially poorer care and triaging, that rate could rise).
Yeah, totally agree, which is why I pointed out that our 422/million is lower than Italy and Spain, but their cases are largely resolved and ours are still rising. Specifically, part of the US (the NE) had quite high peaks and are on the other side. Others flattened the curves much more, but are in a holding pattern where we still are getting far too many new cases and it could easily rise (I'd put Cook County, IL, parts of MI, probably other parts of the industrial midwest, etc. in this category). And many have not yet peaked -- all the states growing now.
The deaths per million are more relevant for the areas that have peaked and are basically on the other side -- many European countries (not the UK), likely (if they avoid a second wave) the NE US, or at least those states that got hit heavily already, and then the other countries that seem to have it under control.I agree that deaths per millions is probably the best comparison between countries, but if you want to get some sense of the percentage of covid cases in a particular country are ending in death, you would do better to look at [deaths] divided by [deaths + recoveries]. Admittedly, that may be a little high, as it appears on average, from the (largely anecdotal) information I've seen, that average time to recovery is probably somewhat longer than average time to death. But it's going to be far closer to the truth than using a denominator in which two-thirds* of the cases have not yet resolved in either death or recovery
I'm operating on the understanding that many of the recovered cases were not caught and that there's likely not a huge difference in the percentage who get it who die, if we knew how many really had it (that latter could be false, but it's simply impossible to compare total number of cases or total recovered, especially when looking at places hit early on, when testing could not keep up).
I guess I wasn't clear. I'm not talking about using [deaths] divided by [deaths + recoveries] to compare across countries. I'm saying if one were trying to get a handle on how many more people might be expected to die in, for example, the U.S. among the 2.4 million current unresolved cases, and additional 70,000 new cases per diem, one should not divide deaths by total cases, but rather deaths by resolved cases (deaths + recoveries).
It won't be perfect. It might overestimate because of possible disparities between the death and recovery timelines as well as the possibility that wider testing is picking up more asymptomatic and mild cases and the possibility that treatment protocols are improving and becoming more effective over time. On the other hand, it might underestimate because rising cases will overwhelm the health system and lead to compromised treatment and even denial of treatment. In any case, it has to be a lot better estimate than using an inflated denominator that assumes that none of those 2.4 million current unresolved cases and daily additional 70,000 new cases will end in death.
Oh, I see. We were just focusing on different things. I wasn't using total deaths (or deaths per million) to suggest some kind of total eventual death number. In addition to unresolved cases, I'm assuming there will be many more new cases, unfortunately.1 -
richardgavel wrote: »Our Mayor in Chicago said if the young people don't start wearing masks and practice social distancing, we are going back to Phase 3 which means closing businesses, restaurants, salons and THE GYM!!!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!
And yet, I haven't seen anyone at the gym without a mask. They are cleaning the equipment. So what is the value of closing places that based on the science, are low risk to spread? I though decisions were being made based on facts and science.
It's about what's allowed to be open in different phases. I believe the concern is that if cases are going up again it's a bigger risk to be more open in general.
Probably better to just close bars, which seem to be the biggest problem, if cases (specifically, positive %) start spiking again.1 -
ExistingFish wrote: »Theoldguy1 wrote: »richardgavel wrote: »Our Mayor in Chicago said if the young people don't start wearing masks and practice social distancing, we are going back to Phase 3 which means closing businesses, restaurants, salons and THE GYM!!!!! NOOOOOOOO!!!
And yet, I haven't seen anyone at the gym without a mask. They are cleaning the equipment. So what is the value of closing places that based on the science, are low risk to spread? I though decisions were being made based on facts and science.
Somewhat facts and science. Somewhat dependent on whim. Sort of like when the teacher punishes the whole class because a few kids are acting up.
I agree, have been to my gym a couple times. Masks where they're supposed to be worn, everyone that walks in gets a cleaning towel and disinfectant spray bottle (plus the staff is constantly cleaning).
I have been to my old gym and my new gym (I switched to a closer, less crowded one). People are doing really good at social distancing. At my new gym - everyone cleans. At my old gym, I didn't see that many people cleaning. It was also busier and harder to maintain social distance. My new gym also has the doors open and fans going to circulate the outdoor air in and the indoor air out (because the AC sucks...but it moves the air and dissipates people's breaths).
I think it depends on the type of gym. I now to go to a weightlifting only gym. People are really good at being away from other people and carrying around cleaning supplies. Other gyms that are bigger on group classes and stuff may have a far harder time.
I go to use the weight area and the general purpose area behind the cardio equipment. Both of these rooms are big with 20+ foot ceilings and believe there is outside circulation going on (Big *kitten* Fans, look it up, it's a brand name, https://www.bigassfans.com/ and what appear to be outside vents near them). There are a number of smaller separate classrooms that I don't use but I know the carefully limit the number of people in a class in "normal" times so I assume they are doing the same now.0 -
'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
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Diatonic12 wrote: »'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
I want to join your gym so bad now.6 -
Since masks have been made mandatory in my county my husband reports that both Kroger (which also went nationwide with its mask policy) and TSC were full of masked people, 100% compliance. Previously it was about half in Kroger with employees wearing masks on their chins, and zero at TSC. County mask law also defines mask use as covering both mouth and nose, so wearing it slung randomly around your face doesn’t count.7
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rheddmobile wrote: »Diatonic12 wrote: »'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
I want to join your gym so bad now.
Me too!3 -
paperpudding wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »I could disagree point by point but not with an attorney because I don't have that kind of time.
Let's just say I disagree on most points you just made lemur, because all of them assume we are getting all the numbers - which we aren't - especially from countries that have socialist or communist governments.
What's the basis for thinking we aren't getting the numbers from Germany or most other EU countries or Australia? Because that's what I have been focusing on.There isn't one country (such as Germany) who miraculously just isn't seeing any deaths (or such low deaths like China and Germany) unless there is a lot of deception going on or there is some genetic trait only prevalent in that population - which could turn out to be true, but right now is a wild speculation. Or they have governmental control over their citizens, which I find hard to believe in any country short of communist or dictatorships.
On what basis do you think Germany is lying? Or Australia?
Australia and NZ have relatively low Covid numbers - yes I get that their populations are lower but I mean low proportionate numbers.
They are not communist countries.
One could argue they are more socialist countries than US since they have things like universal medical care - but are you really suggesting that means their Covid numbers are falsified???
I assume you were directing this to cmriverside and not me (even though you quoted me), since it seems like you and I are agreeing.
yes, is one of those examples where you need to read 'previous quotes' to get the context - my point about Australia and NZ not having deception (or falsifying their numbers) was in reply to this: "There isn't one country (such as Germany) who miraculously just isn't seeing any deaths (or such low deaths like China and Germany) unless there is a lot of deception going on or there is some genetic trait only prevalent in that population - which could turn out to be true, but right now is a wild speculation. Or they have governmental control over their citizens, which I find hard to believe in any country short of communist or dictatorships"
Australia and NZ are not communist countries or dictatorships and highly unlikely there is any genetic disposition - since the vast majority of Australians are not a racial group distinct from other places in the world6 -
rheddmobile wrote: »Diatonic12 wrote: »'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
I want to join your gym so bad now.
If only because of the excellent ventilation system.
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rheddmobile wrote: »Since masks have been made mandatory in my county my husband reports that both Kroger (which also went nationwide with its mask policy) and TSC were full of masked people, 100% compliance. Previously it was about half in Kroger with employees wearing masks on their chins, and zero at TSC. County mask law also defines mask use as covering both mouth and nose, so wearing it slung randomly around your face doesn’t count.
Wasn't there some implication earlier in the thread from someone(s)** that mask mandates wouldn't change behavior, unless there were big fines, or security/police with guns, or some kind of major enforcement muscle like that?
Hmmmm.
** Not implying it was you, rhedd - that seems improbable, and I truly don't remember who, and can't even be sure I didn't read too much into emanations and penumbras. Still. 2 -
paperpudding wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »I could disagree point by point but not with an attorney because I don't have that kind of time.
Let's just say I disagree on most points you just made lemur, because all of them assume we are getting all the numbers - which we aren't - especially from countries that have socialist or communist governments.
What's the basis for thinking we aren't getting the numbers from Germany or most other EU countries or Australia? Because that's what I have been focusing on.There isn't one country (such as Germany) who miraculously just isn't seeing any deaths (or such low deaths like China and Germany) unless there is a lot of deception going on or there is some genetic trait only prevalent in that population - which could turn out to be true, but right now is a wild speculation. Or they have governmental control over their citizens, which I find hard to believe in any country short of communist or dictatorships.
On what basis do you think Germany is lying? Or Australia?
Australia and NZ have relatively low Covid numbers - yes I get that their populations are lower but I mean low proportionate numbers.
They are not communist countries.
One could argue they are more socialist countries than US since they have things like universal medical care - but are you really suggesting that means their Covid numbers are falsified???
I assume you were directing this to cmriverside and not me (even though you quoted me), since it seems like you and I are agreeing.
yes, is one of those examples where you need to read 'previous quotes' to get the context - my point about Australia and NZ not having deception (or falsifying their numbers) was in reply to this: "There isn't one country (such as Germany) who miraculously just isn't seeing any deaths (or such low deaths like China and Germany) unless there is a lot of deception going on or there is some genetic trait only prevalent in that population - which could turn out to be true, but right now is a wild speculation. Or they have governmental control over their citizens, which I find hard to believe in any country short of communist or dictatorships"
Australia and NZ are not communist countries or dictatorships and highly unlikely there is any genetic disposition - since the vast majority of Australians are not a racial group distinct from other places in the world
Yeah, I figured, and totally agree. And no genetic disposition that affected Germany and Australia would not affect the US.2 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »rheddmobile wrote: »Diatonic12 wrote: »'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
I want to join your gym so bad now.
Me too!
Not me, I only work out with brown bears. More of a challenge. (Kidding, obviously.)7 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »rheddmobile wrote: »Diatonic12 wrote: »'My' gym might as well be the city dump. On a good year they only clean it twice a year and simply empty the garbage cans the rest of the time. Tourists blow in from all over the world and the shower rooms are absolutely a mess. So gross. Yuck, I need a bucket. The mask thing. How many have encountered someone wearing it beneath their nose on the daily or taking it off and on or letting it ride on their chin. Many are wearing it as an ornament. A total cluster.
Here's the lounge at the front desk.
This is the maintenance break room.
I want to join your gym so bad now.
Me too!
Not me, I only work out with brown bears. More of a challenge. (Kidding, obviously.)
I like brown bears too, but they are just a bit above my level. These bears are still slightly above my fitness level, sitting on a couch, but it is at least a challenge I can achieve.6 -
https://www.wlwt.com/article/couple-forced-to-wear-ankle-monitors-to-self-isolate-after-kentucky-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19/33357364
Short story: KY couple tested before traveling to MI, woman has Coronavirus and is asymptomatic. Refused to agree not to travel, so they made them wear monitoring devices.
BTW, this is another case where everybody getting tested helps.6 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »https://www.wlwt.com/article/couple-forced-to-wear-ankle-monitors-to-self-isolate-after-kentucky-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19/33357364
Short story: KY couple tested before traveling to MI, woman has Coronavirus and is asymptomatic. Refused to agree not to travel, so they made them wear monitoring devices.
BTW, this is another case where everybody getting tested helps.
Cases like this one may just drive more people to not get tested when they expect they may test positive.
With the way the known positive cases are increasing in KY we know if we shop we are going into places with positive employees and shoppers daily.
It seems like the 15-40 age group more and more are 'assuming' they are going to test positive regardless of what they do and think letting COVID-19 spread like wild fire may be a good thing.
Self isolating it becoming harder and harder but now is about the only option for we seniors. Locally a family of 4 with two minor kids returned from FL vacation to test positive. The ankle bracelet story may be counter productive.
UPS and FedEx drivers coming to the house are very concerned but not enough to wear masks yet it seems.
https://jpost.com/health-science/people-with-blood-type-o-are-more-protected-against-covid-19-studies-show-631502
I wish this stress factor was not in the news so often.
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@GaleHawkins
We just post a sign on our door to please leave all deliveries against the door, thanks.
Safer for us and for them.
We live in a walk up apartment building with narrow staircase so we leave the parcel outside for at least 30 minutes before opening the door to retrieve it and then it sits in a corner for at least 24 hours before we handle it.
It is becoming a little tedious, still better for stress levels and generally an uptick for staying alive.1 -
Wow, check the forearms and wrist width on those black bears. Strong guys.3
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GaleHawkins wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »https://www.wlwt.com/article/couple-forced-to-wear-ankle-monitors-to-self-isolate-after-kentucky-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19/33357364
Short story: KY couple tested before traveling to MI, woman has Coronavirus and is asymptomatic. Refused to agree not to travel, so they made them wear monitoring devices.
BTW, this is another case where everybody getting tested helps.
Cases like this one may just drive more people to not get tested when they expect they may test positive.
Maybe, but if the requirement for traveling to certain places is to either quarantine for 14 days upon arrival or quarantine for a shorter period and test negative, then I think most people without symptoms will take the chance with a test rather than extend their quarantine to 14 days.5
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