Coronavirus prep
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@MikePfirrman Thank you. He's acting fine(knock on wood and crossing my fingers) and is awaiting a call back for a test. He has a low-grade fever and chills but seems to feel alright. It's hard to tell when he's truly got something ailing him because he's the type that when he has a cold or bug he always calls it the flu. A case of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, KWIM?
But thermometers don't lie and in this case, much better to be safe than sorry. Besides, I'd be terribly worried about the outcome if he did contract it because he has many pre-existing conditions that could theoretically make it harder for him.
Please tell your husband to wear a mask in the house and you do the same thing. Better if try to keep away from each other as much as possible to reduce any high viral load infection. Hugs to both of you.11 -
NY just ordered all gyms and restaurants closed at 10pm on Friday. No more take out liquor. I'm having a sad.11
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kshama2001 wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »@kimny72 and others following vaccine research closely - how do they get that 90%? Are they exposing the test subjects? That seems unethical, but if they are not, how would they know the subjects didn't get Covid because they simply were not exposed to it?
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
...The companies said an early analysis of the results showed that individuals who received two injections of the vaccine three weeks apart experienced more than 90% fewer cases of symptomatic Covid-19 than those who received a placebo.
Once there are enough numbers, they decide it's an effect, not random chance. Statistics. (It's too long since I did any advanced stats, so I'm literally incapable of explaining the details, but it's a standard protocol.)
I don't know enough about this study to know the control/treated matching protocols (how detailed), but the answer is still statistics.
There are some challenge studies (where people are intentionally exposed) but I don't personally know whether Pfizer did any. It's not unethical to expose test subjects who sign up for the study with full knowledge (informed consent) that they are going to be intentionally exposed to the disease. Volunteers are solicited, and brave, generous people sign up for it, in the hope of speeding vaccine availability . . . if the vaccine they're helping test pans out.The_Enginerd wrote: »From the information I've read, an independent assessor checks progress at a set number of cases in the group. From there, they can compare the number of cases in those individuals given the placebo vs. the vaccine. It seems they are actually reaching the goals earlier than expected because the spread of the coronavirus has been so widespread, and they are already over halfway through the 164 total cases targeted for final review.
Sources:
https://www.vox.com/21556380/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-optimism-skepticism
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/09/vaccine-efficacy-data
Hmm, well 100% of the people I know IRL in Massachusetts who practice scrupulous mask wearing, hand washing, and social distancing have no symptoms of the virus, so if the volunteers are doing the same, how do we know the 90% vaccine effective rate has anything to do with the vaccine?
While it is statistically unlikely that the vaccine group is better at taking precautions than the placebo group, it seems to be a stretch to award all 90% to the vaccine if the subjects were also taking precautions.
The Vox article and another link within it do caution that the announcement comes from a press release, not validated data, so I will reserve judgement until more is known.
FWIW, another statement I can't justify with details because my stats classes were so long ago: The articles I've read about the 90% thing don't sound like the reporters really understand the statistics, and are using some key numbers from a press release and not interpreting them insightfully. (I'm sure there are better technical/statistical analyses out there, but I'm not interested enough to seek them out, and I'd probably have to haul out textbooks or something to truly "get it" at the level I'd want, if I did bother. Don't wanna. I took a lot of stats back in the day, but I didn't enjoy it.)
So, this is from memory: Your observation is that behaviors can have differed, leading to an accidental difference in cases among the two groups: Yes, absolutely. As the numbers of cases (considered in light of the test population size) go up, the probability that the difference comes from random factors like that goes down (in the technical sense of probability). Size of the test population matters hugely, too, in how probable it is that the test subjects reflect the population.
Kind of think of it this way: If you flip fair coins, you get heads or tails, and over many tosses, you'll get about equal numbers of each, distributed in random patterns. (Not saying that's how viruses behave: Bear with me.) In any arbitrarily long sequence of coin flips, there is a non-zero probability that ALL flips will come up heads. But the more coin flips you do, that indefinitely long (theoretically possible) sequence of all-heads becomes less and less probable to occur as you go along. At some number of flips, the intelligent person will conclude it's overwhelmingly probable that the coin is rigged, even though a very, very long sequence of all-heads is possible.
The analogous kind of thing can happen in a more complicated test (like the analysis of the control/test populations in a virus study). The math is much more complicated, as is the underlying real-world situation, but at a certain point, the numbers can reach a point where statistics tell you pretty clearly that it's extremely unlikely that the numbers you're getting are just from sheer chance, so the overwhelming probability is that the vaccine is actually working. There's still a chance (statistically) that your conclusion is wrong, but it's very tiny.
This is a very structured statistical decision process, IMU, not just "lotta cases here, not so many there, I think we're good". Presumably, there will've also been opportunities to compare disease incidence in both arms to disease incidence in overall populations; or, to the extent there are decent-sized cohorts of the test population in a given locale, to compare results in both arms to the population incidence. While I don't believe that would be a core method of analysis, I'd be surprised if no one was looking at other hints like that (which would be less statistically valid methods by far, but could be sort of a gut-check).
I did enjoy statistics and do remember the coin flipping
However, with coin flipping, there are just two variables - heads and tails.
With the Pfizer study, in addition to vaccine and placebo, there is also mask usage, hand washing, and social distancing. I'm curious as to how they control for taking precautions so that the 90% efficacy doesn't include that.
The short and imprecise answer is that when you have enough people, the probabilities are that those kinds of factors average out - that the probability is that each group will have some hygiene-compulsive people, and some careless people, in roughly similar proportions to the populations from which they're drawn.
At a certain point (numerically/statistically), the probability becomes very low that cautious people are overrepresented in the vaccine subgroup (vs placebo subgroup). (It remains possible the groups are unbalanced, but it's very improbable). It's still analogous (I chose that word carefully) to the coin-flips, even though it's not a binary or simple like the coin-flips.3 -
@MikePfirrman Thank you. He's acting fine(knock on wood and crossing my fingers) and is awaiting a call back for a test. He has a low-grade fever and chills but seems to feel alright. It's hard to tell when he's truly got something ailing him because he's the type that when he has a cold or bug he always calls it the flu. A case of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, KWIM?
But thermometers don't lie and in this case, much better to be safe than sorry. Besides, I'd be terribly worried about the outcome if he did contract it because he has many pre-existing conditions that could theoretically make it harder for him.
Please tell your husband to wear a mask in the house and you do the same thing. Better if try to keep away from each other as much as possible to reduce any high viral load infection. Hugs to both of you.
Thank you, we are. First thing I said to him this a.m. after watching him cough all over the shelf was, we better mask up. Then after following him around with Clorox wipes, I had to ask him f he'd washed his hands today at all. Grrr, nope but I will he replied. He touches everything. This man cleans for a living at the high school but being so lazy at home, he figures it's up to me. Staying away from him isn't hard for me to do. Sad to say.
I feel the need to scream, for some strange reason. He has an appt. tomorrow a.m. at 9:45 and it'll take 3 days to get results so probably Monday a.m. because nothing happens over a weekend.
Meanwhile I can't help my sister at all with her dh. He could have a day left, he could live another month; we have no way of knowing, but I wanted to be there with her as much as she needed me to, every step of the way. She's on her own except for the occasional help she can get. And nothing for help is offered on weekends. That part of it bothers me more than anything at all.
So frustrating17 -
A local news station has learned that South Dakota's DOH has been using a total staffed ICU beds number that includes NICU beds. As babies are rarely very sick with covid (thank heavens), it makes the percentage of available beds look much better than the reality.8
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We have had a pulse oximeter at home for over 7 years now - my youngest was on oxygen the first year of his life. When we were sick with whatever crud we had late winter (likely Covid based on synptoms) and out of habit I kept a check on the kiddos oxygen levels (oddly enough, not my own even though I was literally gasping for air, a very scary feeling). I did just get a new one because after so much use over the years it wasn’t responding very quickly anymore. They are very useful tools to have on hand at home - And for the cost I definitely recommend them! It can help you decide if it’s something to continue monitoring at home or if an ER/urgent care visit is needed.8
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Still no shut down in Indiana. Which is stupid as heck. We set another record with 5,156 new single day cases. 31 new deaths. 10.3% 7 day positivity rate. But they are giving local officials all the power and not taking steps at the state level except to increase funding for compliance checks and limiting occupancy of large events depending on what level the county is in.
My city however IS looking at increasing restrictions when it comes to schools and businesses. However, most of my shopping is done in other areas of the county or in a nearby county. So not too sure how much that will help me.
Out hospitals are being overwhelmed. Some hospitals are totally full and are having to send patients to other locations. We are calling for retired health care workers to volunteer to come back. ICU state wise only have 26% of beds available. Our numbers are so much worse NOW then they were when we shut down last time...
I don't get it. I really don't.14 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@ReenieHJ -- I hope your husband is OK.
We should start talking more about IF you get it. I'm reading about oxygen sensors being used and the level at which you should go to the hospital.
https://www.consumerreports.org/medical-symptoms/covid-19-pulse-oximeters-oxygen-levels-faq/
Amazon has sensors as low as $17. Any other insight from people that know more than I do about science?
On This Week in Virology, the infectious disease doctor mentioned monitoring oxygen stats, especially in the second week. We have one from Amazon. I made my sister in FL get one too.
ETA. I see this was already mentioned by one of the other TWiV listeners .4 -
Saw this for anyone interested. I'm into herbal therapies a lot.
This is a uncommon Chinese herbal formula (at least in the Western culture), but when you look up the active ingredients, they are Quercetin (something we've mentioned a lot in here) and Resveratrol.
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-11/09/content_76890331.htm
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0753332219352746
Now, herbal therapies can interact with prescription medications, so check with your docs. If I do end up getting it, I've got the everything but the kitchen sink to throw at it, LOL. I might throw that at it too.2 -
Something else starting to happen. If the ICU nurses start to burn out and quit, we're all screwed. I can't say I blame them. It's like war conditions for them.
There's an ICU nurse on Twitter that put up she just clocked out and quit. So many more nurses are saying, "I'm right behind you...". Health care workers have been abused during this crisis and they are at their breaking point.12 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Something else starting to happen. If the ICU nurses start to burn out and quit, we're all screwed. I can't say I blame them. It's like war conditions for them.
There's an ICU nurse on Twitter that put up she just clocked out and quit. So many more nurses are saying, "I'm right behind you...". Health care workers have been abused during this crisis and they are at their breaking point.
I'd be so angry if I were an overworked and exhausted ICU nurse hearing about all the people refusing to take simple precautions like wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings...19 -
Toilet paper hoarding is apparently happening again at Kroger. There aren't shortages, but the store is implementing limits to prevent the hoarding they are observing.
Edit: Link https://www.10tv.com/article/news/local/kroger-limiting-purchases-on-paper-towels-toilet-paper-to-prevent-hoarding/530-9a27b476-b91f-4e86-a7e1-b14ac2357a973 -
kshama2001 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Something else starting to happen. If the ICU nurses start to burn out and quit, we're all screwed. I can't say I blame them. It's like war conditions for them.
There's an ICU nurse on Twitter that put up she just clocked out and quit. So many more nurses are saying, "I'm right behind you...". Health care workers have been abused during this crisis and they are at their breaking point.
I'd be so angry if I were an overworked and exhausted ICU nurse hearing about all the people refusing to take simple precautions like wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings...
Or screamed at, in their faces, as they did in AZ, told "you're fake news" or "you're not a real nurse...". Yep, that happened here.
From Canada -- https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/1-700-quebec-nurses-have-quit-during-the-pandemic-says-union-1.5108013
From the UK -- 2/3 are considering leaving nursing. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204609/Three-five-nurses-say-verge-QUITTING-jobs-coronavirus-crisis.html
Have to think the numbers are worse in the US.7 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Something else starting to happen. If the ICU nurses start to burn out and quit, we're all screwed. I can't say I blame them. It's like war conditions for them.
There's an ICU nurse on Twitter that put up she just clocked out and quit. So many more nurses are saying, "I'm right behind you...". Health care workers have been abused during this crisis and they are at their breaking point.
I'd be so angry if I were an overworked and exhausted ICU nurse hearing about all the people refusing to take simple precautions like wearing masks and avoiding large gatherings...
Or screamed at, in their faces, as they did in AZ, told "you're fake news" or "you're not a real nurse...". Yep, that happened here.
From Canada -- https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/1-700-quebec-nurses-have-quit-during-the-pandemic-says-union-1.5108013
From the UK -- 2/3 are considering leaving nursing. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204609/Three-five-nurses-say-verge-QUITTING-jobs-coronavirus-crisis.html
Have to think the numbers are worse in the US.
Article in our paper said 1/3 of public school teacher seriously thinking about leaving the profession over Covid safety and stress issues.7 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Something else starting to happen. If the ICU nurses start to burn out and quit, we're all screwed. I can't say I blame them. It's like war conditions for them.
There's an ICU nurse on Twitter that put up she just clocked out and quit. So many more nurses are saying, "I'm right behind you...". Health care workers have been abused during this crisis and they are at their breaking point.
That combined with all the HC workers dying from covid is another long term issue we will have to deal with. Add in young people who might have been considering going into emergency medicine who have watched this unfold and changed their minds. All of the emergency beds in the world are of no use without enough well trained and compassionate pros to man them. I hope enough of them hang in there until vaccines start to hit the market and maybe the national environment ummm changes.7 -
Chef_Barbell wrote: »NY just ordered all gyms and restaurants closed at 10pm on Friday. No more take out liquor. I'm having a sad.
So update on that... the governor meant a 10 o clock curfew on gyms and restaurants. Makes no sense since most gyms already close by that time and restaurants have to close by midnight.
Our state numbers are up to 2.9% positive. Arbitrary rules make no sense to me.6 -
Chef_Barbell wrote: »Chef_Barbell wrote: »NY just ordered all gyms and restaurants closed at 10pm on Friday. No more take out liquor. I'm having a sad.
So update on that... the governor meant a 10 o clock curfew on gyms and restaurants. Makes no sense since most gyms already close by that time and restaurants have to close by midnight.
Our state numbers are up to 2.9% positive. Arbitrary rules make no sense to me.
Does he not realise the virus is active 24 hours a day? Unbelievable. Also if they stop take out liquor some that are desperate will start smashing there way into the shops to get some.2 -
Chef_Barbell wrote: »Chef_Barbell wrote: »NY just ordered all gyms and restaurants closed at 10pm on Friday. No more take out liquor. I'm having a sad.
So update on that... the governor meant a 10 o clock curfew on gyms and restaurants. Makes no sense since most gyms already close by that time and restaurants have to close by midnight.
Our state numbers are up to 2.9% positive. Arbitrary rules make no sense to me.
Does he not realise the virus is active 24 hours a day? Unbelievable. Also if they stop take out liquor some that are desperate will start smashing there way into the shops to get some.
1) I expect the behavior of people still in bars and restaurants from 10 p.m. to midnight is different from people during the hours that dinner is normally served. Those people are much more likely to be there just to drink, which loosens inhibitions, and likely loosens compliance with protocols like wearing your mask when you aren't actually eating or drinking, and staying at your own table rather than going around the room trying to chat up good-looking strangers. (I've occasionally had to try to find someplace for dinner at nine-ish when traveling for business, and pretty much any sit-down place that is open at that hour isn't serving meals anymore.)
2) the alcohol restriction is just for restaurants with liquor licenses on carryout and delivery orders after 10 p.m. You can get food delivered, but you can't get alcohol delivered from a restaurant after 10 p.m. It's nothing to do with "shops" that sell alcohol, so no need for people to start smashing their way in.7 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »Chef_Barbell wrote: »Chef_Barbell wrote: »NY just ordered all gyms and restaurants closed at 10pm on Friday. No more take out liquor. I'm having a sad.
So update on that... the governor meant a 10 o clock curfew on gyms and restaurants. Makes no sense since most gyms already close by that time and restaurants have to close by midnight.
Our state numbers are up to 2.9% positive. Arbitrary rules make no sense to me.
Does he not realise the virus is active 24 hours a day? Unbelievable. Also if they stop take out liquor some that are desperate will start smashing there way into the shops to get some.
1) I expect the behavior of people still in bars and restaurants from 10 p.m. to midnight is different from people during the hours that dinner is normally served. Those people are much more likely to be there just to drink, which loosens inhibitions, and likely loosens compliance with protocols like wearing your mask when you aren't actually eating or drinking, and staying at your own table rather than going around the room trying to chat up good-looking strangers. (I've occasionally had to try to find someplace for dinner at nine-ish when traveling for business, and pretty much any sit-down place that is open at that hour isn't serving meals anymore.)
2) the alcohol restriction is just for restaurants with liquor licenses on carryout and delivery orders after 10 p.m. You can get food delivered, but you can't get alcohol delivered from a restaurant after 10 p.m. It's nothing to do with "shops" that sell alcohol, so no need for people to start smashing their way in.
1) I was thinking of gyms mostly but of course I get what you are saying about bars etc...
2) Good to hear about the alcohol. We never have been able to get alcohol delivered from restaurants until recently so to me I carry out to me means a different thing. We don't use those terms here usually. Also supermarkets don't sell alcohol over here. We have to go into what is called a "bottle shop" to buy wine etc.. they only sell alcohol there other than a few little snacks like nuts.5
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