Coronavirus prep
Replies
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MikePfirrman wrote: »On the news this morning, some areas of CA are no longer transporting patients with no chance of living. We have reached a really sad state of affairs in the US that could have been 100% prevented. Ambulance drivers are being asked to make triage types of decisions on who lives and who dies.
AZ is back to being number one in the world in per capita new infections. Not completely surprising. When it reaches the 30s and 40s, people all pack inside again for a few months. Just like the Summer, we are tolerating it outside only when we eat out. Yeah, at times it's very cold to eat on patios at 50 degrees or less, but we do it. Most places have propane heaters, fires or overhead patio heaters which make it much better and tolerable.
When the local news stations announced we're back to being worst in the world for new infections, you see the comments (on social media) and understand why. People putting up crap like "masks are proven to not work..." or similar.
I still see the chin strap masks, masks that are a complete joke (I saw one very unhealthy looking cashier with a face shield that allowed all air in the other day), some still not wearing masks in stores and the gyms are packed. Many in AZ are poor, so schools are in session. And the wealthy -- many of them, for political reasons, are still deniers. We will likely have it around longer than many other states since this is our new wave, which started later because of our Winter not getting cold until this month.
North and South Dakota numbers are dropping rapidly. Looks like they have nearly reached herd immunity. But it took massive amount of deaths to get to that point. Just sad.
Here in South Dakota our positivity rates are still in the 30 to 60% range daily.
Didn't mean to minimize it. As terrible as it is there, the numbers seem (at least to outsiders) like they have peaked and are at least starting to head down. What your state has been through is awful, and was IMHO, completely preventable with common sense.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/south-dakota/
@smithker75 -- with all the crazies here, I'd love to take you up on that. But with my businesses, that would be hard to do until I retire! And I have no plans on retiring soon. My wife, kids and I have long dreamed of Australia or New Zealand or both!1 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Vaccinations are a wonderful possibility, but If you consider how long it took to eradicate smallpox I hope it will not take anything like as long as the 200 years. To take as long with covid is unthinkable. It seems ultimately even when most of the population were covered by vaccine it was only when a doctor in some really remote place was faced with a massive outbreak and only relatively few vaccines available with no extra supplies due. he/she did the only thing they could, prioritise. They sought out all the active cases and then vaccinated those people round them and eventually each case was ringfenced and the virus was ultimately eliminated because it had no where to go. This is possibly the way we need to go in each and every country because with our more mobile populations reinfection with covid could so easily occur.
To those who say these vaccines have been produced too quickly to be safe. The issue comes down to the amount of money and scientific experience has been directed towards this result. in the region of 200 years working on different viruses, that makes a mountain of knowledge.
Thankfully this is the first time a rogue virus has gone international, not been stopped by the intense actions in/of the first infected country. Ebola was a hard fought battle because of some extended spread, with international help it has been stopped. Then the one which was a virus rife in South America which was a problem for pregnant mothers and their neonates. There have been others stopped by prompt action.
This time, many of the world governments have thrown money at the problem. From the outset scientists have provided information to each other so they all could bring their areas of expertise to the international effort. There are quite a few vaccines on the horizon, each one will be being assessed at each and every step. This means that with continuous on going assessment progress is quicker. Unlike in the past many companies do not need to wait for funding at each and every stage because research is not one companies property, the process has been able to be much more efficient.
The best thing about the second vaccine I know of is, it will be produced and supplied at cost, said to be between £3 or £4 UK, per dose, to many countries once production is scaled up sufficiently with other production facilities coming on line, this one gives more hope because it can also be stored in clinic fridges and for a while in cool boxes rather than at -70 degrees C
Best wishes to every one.
You do realize that animals can get this virus also? Animals don't get polio.
How do you think it can be eradicated? Sorry, but COVID is going to stay with us--like the flu. We will be getting vaccinations every autumn (as we do the flu) for a long time to come. If you have studies to the contrary, I'd love to see them.
It really all depends on how long vaccinated immunity lasts, how many people refuse to get vaccinated, and whether any of the vaccines turn out to be sterilizing or not. All of which will probably take several years to figure out. There is also no conclusion yet whether getting it once leads to life long antibody production. If you can get it twice, and no vaccine is sterilizing, it will not be eradicated and there will not really be herd immunity. It will still be circulating, just not making vaccinated people sick, and anyone who doesn't keep up with their shots could get it and get sick.
The first trials started when, September or so? By the end of this year they should be able to start testing for antibody levels in the first folks who got the vaccines and see whether it will be annual or maybe (hopefully) last longer.13 -
My state was doing so well in the summer
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/massachusetts/9 -
Good source for state data: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
Given the differences in testing, I continue to think the main useful numbers are positivity rate (and yes, SD is still bad) and deaths per capita.6 -
I'm very sorry for those who have succumbed to HIV. Its a prime case of insufficient funding being directed towards an effective vaccine though I think, but have no experience of someone using the available interventions, the outlook for someone regrettably infected with HIV in recent years is much better than those who contracted it back in the 1980's.
The eradication I mentioned was small pox not polio. I've not heard of this recently but some countries have taken exception to having their populations vaccinated against Polio. They believe there is a conspiracy by more wealthy countries wilfully wanting to damage their populations of these less well off countries rather than help them. As long as there is mistrust, there will be cases of Polio. In the '50's I had a friend at school who did have polio and was greatly recovered, I would hope cases such as hers are much less frequent in 2021.
To hear many people talk they think we will be out of this mire by April. One of Boris Johnsons advisers in the briefing this evening 5-00pm UK time, said we will probably need to be taking precautions against covid next winter too. My fear is because the virus is so virulent and the world populations so fluid it could be with us for many years to come.
My family had been fortunate in avoiding this virus until the start of December. My 91 year old mother regrettably in a care home, since the 30th of November tested positive for her birthday 17th December, when she had been negative for 5 days, tested daily before and after transfer. Fortunately she is said to be asymptomatic. My son has avoided hospitalisation and is back at work at the chalk face, having tested positive on the 23rd. My second grandson aged 18 just, on the 16th December, has lost his sense of taste and smell along side his fathers more dramatic, worrying symptoms, He is in college. Thanks Boris for being so slow off the mark, accepting teaching and support staff need protection as well as those in the NHS and Care workers. Yes, we've got of lightly, many have faired much worse. I want an end to this thing and prevention of any other problem which could arise if hygiene standards globally remain the same as pre 2019. My hope is Governments can work together to improve Global standards.10 -
Good source for state data: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
Given the differences in testing, I continue to think the main useful numbers are positivity rate (and yes, SD is still bad) and deaths per capita.
While acknowledging that you've been following the statistics very carefully and thoughtfully, and I haven't, I've wondered about the effects of testing rules and test availability on positivity rate - how comparable the positivity rates are from place to place.
Locally, we've had various changes in test availability (simple supply issues) and in rules (whether you needed a doctor's prescription, needed to be symptomatic, that sort of thing) here, and it has sometimes seemed to have a modest effect on positivity rates. (I'd expect the statistical impact to be spread out somewhat, from a change in a localized area, since there are issues of communication and understanding that may change prospective testees' behavior: Not everyone becomes aware instantly that tests are easier or harder to get, basically. In terms of generalized conclusions from statistics, I'd expect some of that localized timespan spreading-out effect to drop out of significance as numbers might be rolled up to look at a variety of places with similar test availability/uptake).
Do you have a perspective on issues of positivity rates vs. test availability, in terms of impact on comparability across areas?2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Vaccinations are a wonderful possibility, but If you consider how long it took to eradicate smallpox I hope it will not take anything like as long as the 200 years. To take as long with covid is unthinkable. It seems ultimately even when most of the population were covered by vaccine it was only when a doctor in some really remote place was faced with a massive outbreak and only relatively few vaccines available with no extra supplies due. he/she did the only thing they could, prioritise. They sought out all the active cases and then vaccinated those people round them and eventually each case was ringfenced and the virus was ultimately eliminated because it had no where to go. This is possibly the way we need to go in each and every country because with our more mobile populations reinfection with covid could so easily occur.
To those who say these vaccines have been produced too quickly to be safe. The issue comes down to the amount of money and scientific experience has been directed towards this result. in the region of 200 years working on different viruses, that makes a mountain of knowledge.
Thankfully this is the first time a rogue virus has gone international, not been stopped by the intense actions in/of the first infected country. Ebola was a hard fought battle because of some extended spread, with international help it has been stopped. Then the one which was a virus rife in South America which was a problem for pregnant mothers and their neonates. There have been others stopped by prompt action.
This time, many of the world governments have thrown money at the problem. From the outset scientists have provided information to each other so they all could bring their areas of expertise to the international effort. There are quite a few vaccines on the horizon, each one will be being assessed at each and every step. This means that with continuous on going assessment progress is quicker. Unlike in the past many companies do not need to wait for funding at each and every stage because research is not one companies property, the process has been able to be much more efficient.
The best thing about the second vaccine I know of is, it will be produced and supplied at cost, said to be between £3 or £4 UK, per dose, to many countries once production is scaled up sufficiently with other production facilities coming on line, this one gives more hope because it can also be stored in clinic fridges and for a while in cool boxes rather than at -70 degrees C
Best wishes to every one.
You do realize that animals can get this virus also? Animals don't get polio.
How do you think it can be eradicated? Sorry, but COVID is going to stay with us--like the flu. We will be getting vaccinations every autumn (as we do the flu) for a long time to come. If you have studies to the contrary, I'd love to see them.
It really all depends on how long vaccinated immunity lasts, how many people refuse to get vaccinated, and whether any of the vaccines turn out to be sterilizing or not. All of which will probably take several years to figure out. There is also no conclusion yet whether getting it once leads to life long antibody production. If you can get it twice, and no vaccine is sterilizing, it will not be eradicated and there will not really be herd immunity. It will still be circulating, just not making vaccinated people sick, and anyone who doesn't keep up with their shots could get it and get sick.
The first trials started when, September or so? By the end of this year they should be able to start testing for antibody levels in the first folks who got the vaccines and see whether it will be annual or maybe (hopefully) last longer.
Yes, all valid. What I'm asking is something else. How can you eradicate COVID if it has the ability to mutate and is circulating in certain animal populations? Look at the minks in Denmark. The idea that we can hope it will disappear with time, just doesn't seem realistic to me.5 -
My parents had to take their cat to the vet yesterday. They called ahead to learn the covid procedure...there was none. Everything running like it was 2019. They wore masks of course, but will be isolating from me for a couple weeks just in case.
Sadly, it was feline leukemia so they are grieving for her also.22 -
My parents had to take their cat to the vet yesterday. They called ahead to learn the covid procedure...there was none. Everything running like it was 2019. They wore masks of course, but will be isolating from me for a couple weeks just in case.
Sadly, it was feline leukemia so they are grieving for her also.
Oh, I'm so sorry for their bad news. It's always hard to lose an animal companion.6 -
Vaccinations are a wonderful possibility, but If you consider how long it took to eradicate smallpox I hope it will not take anything like as long as the 200 years. To take as long with covid is unthinkable. It seems ultimately even when most of the population were covered by vaccine it was only when a doctor in some really remote place was faced with a massive outbreak and only relatively few vaccines available with no extra supplies due. he/she did the only thing they could, prioritise. They sought out all the active cases and then vaccinated those people round them and eventually each case was ringfenced and the virus was ultimately eliminated because it had no where to go. This is possibly the way we need to go in each and every country because with our more mobile populations reinfection with covid could so easily occur.
To those who say these vaccines have been produced too quickly to be safe. The issue comes down to the amount of money and scientific experience has been directed towards this result. in the region of 200 years working on different viruses, that makes a mountain of knowledge.
Thankfully this is the first time a rogue virus has gone international, not been stopped by the intense actions in/of the first infected country. Ebola was a hard fought battle because of some extended spread, with international help it has been stopped. Then the one which was a virus rife in South America which was a problem for pregnant mothers and their neonates. There have been others stopped by prompt action.
This time, many of the world governments have thrown money at the problem. From the outset scientists have provided information to each other so they all could bring their areas of expertise to the international effort. There are quite a few vaccines on the horizon, each one will be being assessed at each and every step. This means that with continuous on going assessment progress is quicker. Unlike in the past many companies do not need to wait for funding at each and every stage because research is not one companies property, the process has been able to be much more efficient.
The best thing about the second vaccine I know of is, it will be produced and supplied at cost, said to be between £3 or £4 UK, per dose, to many countries once production is scaled up sufficiently with other production facilities coming on line, this one gives more hope because it can also be stored in clinic fridges and for a while in cool boxes rather than at -70 degrees C
Best wishes to every one.
This is not the first time a virus has gone rogue.....HIV is a good example. It's still an issue, with no vaccine yet.
Like there is Safe Sex of HIV control we may need to follow Safe Social Distancing for Covid-19 long term. Covid-19 does not seem to mutate like HIV however. It will be interesting to see if the new Covid-19 mutation out of Africa responds well to the current vaccines.1 -
Good source for state data: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
Given the differences in testing, I continue to think the main useful numbers are positivity rate (and yes, SD is still bad) and deaths per capita.
While acknowledging that you've been following the statistics very carefully and thoughtfully, and I haven't, I've wondered about the effects of testing rules and test availability on positivity rate - how comparable the positivity rates are from place to place.
Locally, we've had various changes in test availability (simple supply issues) and in rules (whether you needed a doctor's prescription, needed to be symptomatic, that sort of thing) here, and it has sometimes seemed to have a modest effect on positivity rates. (I'd expect the statistical impact to be spread out somewhat, from a change in a localized area, since there are issues of communication and understanding that may change prospective testees' behavior: Not everyone becomes aware instantly that tests are easier or harder to get, basically. In terms of generalized conclusions from statistics, I'd expect some of that localized timespan spreading-out effect to drop out of significance as numbers might be rolled up to look at a variety of places with similar test availability/uptake).
Do you have a perspective on issues of positivity rates vs. test availability, in terms of impact on comparability across areas?
I think rules about who can be tested do affect positivity rate, but they have a much greater effect on the total number who test positive, which is why I think the rate is more useful (although I wouldn't focus on it alone) than total numbers.
Some states with super high positivity rates are places where it is hard to get tested, so I would put that in context, but also a high rate will put overall numbers in context. Death rate seems most reliable, but is a lagging indicator.
One issue with comparisons is between April and May and now, and lots of places that were badly hit early have much higher total numbers now, but that needs to be taken in context of the fact that early on people weren't able to be tested so often.6 -
snowflake954 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Vaccinations are a wonderful possibility, but If you consider how long it took to eradicate smallpox I hope it will not take anything like as long as the 200 years. To take as long with covid is unthinkable. It seems ultimately even when most of the population were covered by vaccine it was only when a doctor in some really remote place was faced with a massive outbreak and only relatively few vaccines available with no extra supplies due. he/she did the only thing they could, prioritise. They sought out all the active cases and then vaccinated those people round them and eventually each case was ringfenced and the virus was ultimately eliminated because it had no where to go. This is possibly the way we need to go in each and every country because with our more mobile populations reinfection with covid could so easily occur.
To those who say these vaccines have been produced too quickly to be safe. The issue comes down to the amount of money and scientific experience has been directed towards this result. in the region of 200 years working on different viruses, that makes a mountain of knowledge.
Thankfully this is the first time a rogue virus has gone international, not been stopped by the intense actions in/of the first infected country. Ebola was a hard fought battle because of some extended spread, with international help it has been stopped. Then the one which was a virus rife in South America which was a problem for pregnant mothers and their neonates. There have been others stopped by prompt action.
This time, many of the world governments have thrown money at the problem. From the outset scientists have provided information to each other so they all could bring their areas of expertise to the international effort. There are quite a few vaccines on the horizon, each one will be being assessed at each and every step. This means that with continuous on going assessment progress is quicker. Unlike in the past many companies do not need to wait for funding at each and every stage because research is not one companies property, the process has been able to be much more efficient.
The best thing about the second vaccine I know of is, it will be produced and supplied at cost, said to be between £3 or £4 UK, per dose, to many countries once production is scaled up sufficiently with other production facilities coming on line, this one gives more hope because it can also be stored in clinic fridges and for a while in cool boxes rather than at -70 degrees C
Best wishes to every one.
You do realize that animals can get this virus also? Animals don't get polio.
How do you think it can be eradicated? Sorry, but COVID is going to stay with us--like the flu. We will be getting vaccinations every autumn (as we do the flu) for a long time to come. If you have studies to the contrary, I'd love to see them.
It really all depends on how long vaccinated immunity lasts, how many people refuse to get vaccinated, and whether any of the vaccines turn out to be sterilizing or not. All of which will probably take several years to figure out. There is also no conclusion yet whether getting it once leads to life long antibody production. If you can get it twice, and no vaccine is sterilizing, it will not be eradicated and there will not really be herd immunity. It will still be circulating, just not making vaccinated people sick, and anyone who doesn't keep up with their shots could get it and get sick.
The first trials started when, September or so? By the end of this year they should be able to start testing for antibody levels in the first folks who got the vaccines and see whether it will be annual or maybe (hopefully) last longer.
Yes, all valid. What I'm asking is something else. How can you eradicate COVID if it has the ability to mutate and is circulating in certain animal populations? Look at the minks in Denmark. The idea that we can hope it will disappear with time, just doesn't seem realistic to me.
So this is totally getting into the weeds, but I'm not sure that just because covid is circulating in animal populations and circulating in human populations necessarily means it will jump back and forth. First, it is I believe an unusual event for a virus to jump species, and depending on what species you are talking about can sometimes jump one way but not the other. Mind you, I am completely out of my depth here just piecing together things I think I've learned
. There was actually little scientific support for the mink culling in Denmark, and I read the government official that pushed the policy has since apologized for over reacting. Mink farms in the US have basically been told that there is no reason to think the minks could spread it to humans and gotten some general guidelines from the CDC just in case.
Considering we keep seeing a new avian flu or swine flu pop up, I guess viruses can mutate enough in animals that can transmit viruses to humans to no longer be protected by the old vaccine. I don't know if the other coronaviruses (either the common less dangerous ones or the uncommon but scary ones) are likely to do that or not - I'd bet the answers are in that history and hopefully being studied.
I think also "eradicated" is probably a loosey goosey term anyway. Alot of the stuff we don't have to worry about anymore isn't 100% gone. It's just we have generations of vaccine induced immunity and it gets stuck circulating in some small animal population that can't transmit to humans or is hiding in some permafrozen ice at the pole somewhere. <gulp>
I'm totally not disagreeing with you, just thinking out loud. It would prob be best for all of us to get right with the idea of this being another annual vaccine we'll have to get, and we can be pleasantly surprised if it's not.
ETA: You now have me fascinated by species-jumping viruses and I will probably go aGoogling lol10 -
Early on it was reported 12 people got Covid-19 from mink farms but then there is not solid science when it comes to Covid-19 today.0
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A local news report just stated that due to changes that went into effect on Jan. 1, not all covid tests will be covered by insurance. If not, the average cost is $260.3
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A local news report just stated that due to changes that went into effect on Jan. 1, not all covid tests will be covered by insurance. If not, the average cost is $260.
Here, in Italy, pharmacies are doing testing for $20, as well as other testing centers. Usually they have a tent right outside and one registers, pays, and stands in line. It's quick and doesn't cost much and the results are also immediate (quick testing). If you get a positive, you can go to get a more thorough test at a center.2 -
A local news report just stated that due to changes that went into effect on Jan. 1, not all covid tests will be covered by insurance. If not, the average cost is $260.
Where are you located? Hubby and I have done some of the Massachusetts free, but then opted into some of the asymptomatic "paid" options. Hubby went to one place, $150, then I found a better - same day PCR for $120. Excellent response. He will be using that source in two weeks after traveling home again.
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Getting thoughts on behalf of daughter. Yesterday, she came to me (I was babysitting during their work from home) and said she had a question and was stressing. Basically, her boss wants all staff to get the COVID vaccine now (she works for a hospital, but does not have contact with any patients). DD wants the vaccine, but feels very guilty accepting it as she feels that she would be taking a vaccination from someone in more critical need. I don't want to bias your responses, so I will not share my response. Curious what yours might be.0
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Getting thoughts on behalf of daughter. Yesterday, she came to me (I was babysitting during their work from home) and said she had a question and was stressing. Basically, her boss wants all staff to get the COVID vaccine now (she works for a hospital, but does not have contact with any patients). DD wants the vaccine, but feels very guilty accepting it as she feels that she would be taking a vaccination from someone in more critical need. I don't want to bias your responses, so I will not share my response. Curious what yours might be.
IMHO, anyone that can get a vaccine should. Some of the news this morning is that there was never really a plan to distribute the vaccine at the Federal level. If that's the case, it's not terribly surprising, but incredible. The only way to put this thing behind us all is if we can get people vaccinated in high numbers. Too many vaccines are being wasted by government incompetence.14 -
RE: testing and positivity rates...
Since I've returned to work about a month ago, my company has been testing us twice a week, using a private lab. I imagine a lot of companies are doing the same. Im curious if they report the results, both positive and negative, to the local heath authorities. I just wonder if it's up to the private company if they want to report their numbers, or if they are required to.
The results from a private company, who is testing everyone, would actually give you a better idea of the community positivity rate. Most people who are getting tested at public sites are going because they have symptoms or have been exposed, which is going to skew the numbers.3 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »RE: testing and positivity rates...
Since I've returned to work about a month ago, my company has been testing us twice a week, using a private lab. I imagine a lot of companies are doing the same. Im curious if they report the results, both positive and negative, to the local heath authorities. I just wonder if it's up to the private company if they want to report their numbers, or if they are required to.
The results from a private company, who is testing everyone, would actually give you a better idea of the community positivity rate. Most people who are getting tested at public sites are going because they have symptoms or have been exposed, which is going to skew the numbers.
That may depend on where you are. Hubby and I have never been exposed, but between us, we have done 3 tests and 4th in two weeks. All have been precautionary due to travel. And given the state of my county, travel is IMO less concerning than just living at home, so a little illogical in our case, but following state guidelines.
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