Coronavirus prep
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rheddmobile wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
Good points. I don't think a centralized plan needed to get too granular. More like guidance of how to organize, figure out how many doses they'd need and when, supply pacing, a framework and some kind of platform for communication and scheduling. And a shared database with statistics so areas that are struggling with the roll out could see where it was going more smoothly and maybe see how they were doing it.
I guess what bothers me is there are people who know how to do this, and in an organized federal system, that know how could be shared with everyone easier. I know that's asking a lot though
I know one of the problems with just giving the extra doses to anyone available is that people were using it as a way to skip the line. This is why we can’t have nice things! I don’t remember the details but they were actually discussing prosecuting one doctor who intentionally didn’t schedule enough qualified people, then called in a bunch of big money donors to fill the extra slots. Of course knowing that someone is getting prosecuted for giving the vaccine to the wrong people is going to make other doctors reluctant to do the common sense thing and use all the doses available rather than wasting them.
Yep. And then we get stuck in that philosophical trap where we're so busy trying to keep people from cutting the line that we slow down a process that needs to be fast and hurt everyone. If we knew for sure the vaccines were sterilizing, I'd say screw it just vaccinate whoever shows up because jabbing all the line cutters will still protect me. But since we're not sure and it could just be protecting the person getting vaxed, it makes fairness an issue. Oh well. Like Ann said, hopefully they will learn as they go.4 -
snowflake954 wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »Lining up for a repeat vaccine every 12 months would be no different to annual flu vaccine.
I don't see that as a big deal.
From what I've heard that's what it's going to be. May as well get used to it.
From what I've heard none of the variants so far have been shown to make the vaccines ineffective.
Better to wait and see rather than speculate or assume.
For example not seen any reliable source say that the new variant that emerged in England currently causing horrendous infection rates in the UK requires any change to the vaccines currently being rolled out.
Some good news.....
Vaccination is proceeding at a good pace in the UK, 2.4 million doses received by 2 million people. We don't seem to have the widespread fear of vaccination that are troubling others countries.
The article I linked to above and another one I read last night indicates the South African variant has initially shown some resistance to the antibodies produced by the vaccines. Lots more research is needed. The South African variant is known to be in 12 countries (according to the articles).7 -
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In California we initially did a great job of flattening the curve. But after six weeks, people were fed up with the restrictions and demanded to be able to reopen. Some just did it and continue to do so in spite of the regulations.
Our state and local governments were damned if they do and damned if they don’t. I feel bad for them.
We’re in a mess now because people have been ignoring health guidelines since mid-November. Either with small gatherings or large ones. And with so many asymptomatic people, they don’t know they have it and can make others sick.
There was a heart wrenching article in the LA Times yesterday about children and grandchildren apologizing to dying parents and grandparents for bringing the virus home to them.
I work on a college campus and we have mandatory testing of everyone once a week and we’re moving to twice weekly. Only a couple of my positives have had symptoms. When I call to place them In isolation, they say “but I feel fine.” And I tell them I hope they stay that way—that it’s an inconvenience for them and not an illness. And then everyone in their suite/wing is put into mandatory quarantine to prevent spread.
We were humming along just fine with a couple positive cases (in traditional residence halls with shared bathrooms) until after Thanksgiving. Holy crap! Our students really work hard to follow all the strict COVID policies. No in-person programming, only 4-6 allowed in the lounge at a time. And not any now, since things have gotten worse in the state. Not real college life, but they each have their own room, plenty of food, and great internet. For some, living on campus is the only way they can be in college when it’s online. All our classes are online. No campus life at all this year. The bunnies have completely taken over. It’s kinda cute!
We were told to make the lounge furniture inaccessible so people don’t congregate a few days before move in. We couldn’t relocate it all, so we saranwrapped it all together. They’ve made a game out of decorating the giant mounds of furniture and have had hall to hall competitions they voted for online. They’re so awesome!
And last week wasn’t fun either after the tests started coming back in—everyone needed to test within 48 hours of returning to campus. They didn’t get it on campus, they brought it back. Things will settle down. Likely until the week after spring break. 😬16 -
Let's face it; compliance will never be 100%, especially considering some of the role models we've had.
And even with limiting numbers of occupants anywhere, all it takes is that 1 person to be in denial or asymptomatic and there ya go with another spread. Then those people share and share....
All we can each personally do is the very best we can and be patient; pray the system will work along with the science. I see most people trying(maybe 90 %)and that 10% still want to do what they've always done.
I was talking with a daycare provider at the grocery store and we talked about Christmas. I told her how it was just dh and myself this year. She said she got together with her parents; my reply was 'yeh but you probably see them all the time'. 'Nope' she said, 'but I didn't reopen for a couple days after we got together.' And there you have another possible crack in the system.
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
Agreed. I think some entire states were caught unprepared. Definitely local county health departments and hospitals / EMS agencies, etc. were not ready. One thing that frustrates me is that first responders are given priority, but only through agencies. Those of us who have certifications as emergency medical responders and volunteer/unpaid are left off those lists.10 -
https://theconversation.com/americans-have-unrealistic-expectations-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-152745
This shares some vaccine expectations.1 -
https://www.studyfinds.org/depression-stress-weaken-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/
I had read the concerns over alcohol use but not this concern.1 -
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/moderna-ceo-says-the-world-will-have-to-live-with-the-coronavirus-forever.html
I guess we need to consider the source.2 -
Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?8 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »Lining up for a repeat vaccine every 12 months would be no different to annual flu vaccine.
I don't see that as a big deal.
From what I've heard that's what it's going to be. May as well get used to it.
It'll be a big deal if we have to wear masks and/or continue to social distance in addition to getting a vaccine every 6-12 months. And since we are still being told we need to do those things in addition to getting the vaccine I find this very likely.
Plus how many people don't get the flu vaccine? Most of the people I know who work for companies who do not require it don't bother with it. Plus you can still get the flu even if you do take it since it's a virus and they mutate.
In general we were told that a vaccine would get us back to "normal" but people are realizing that is not the case and is unlikely to be the case. Maybe we can't get back to "normal" ever again, but we aren't even going to be close to normal and for many this isn't acceptable.
I currently don't have a plan to get the vaccine. I'm all for those who wanting it to get it, but for me there's too much unknown about it and I'd rather wait until we actually know the long term effects and efficiency before committing to it. Though as I work in healthcare, though not front lines, I have a feeling work will require it as they do the annual flu shot.
To the person who posted about California - California has some of the strictest restrictions in the US so what's the explanation for why there is such a severe breakout there? Here in IN we seem to have gone through an outbreak, but when the pt's are questioned they all say they are compliant. Physicians are commenting on the fact that anecdotally they are not seeing non-compliant people getting Covid. My sister in law's mom was hospitalized for Covid after Thanksgiving - she social distanced, wore a mask when leaving the house, and washed her hands all the time but her son brought it home from work (they live together). And he's hugely into following all the restrictions so he wore his mask, washed his hands etc and so did the person who spread the Covid. If we are following the guidelines and still getting Covid which is going to make continuing to follow these guidelines very difficult for some people as why are they going through this and losing their livihood for nothing?
We (currently) have to do these things in addition to getting vaccinated because there are still so many unvaccinated people. If you're right and people don't bother to take basic precautionary steps like getting vaccinated, then this may be more drawn out.
If things aren't going "back to normal" due to low vaccination rates and that's unacceptable, what's the alternate plan being proposed? There are people who are complaining about things like wearing masks AND they're complaining about the unknowns of vaccinations. What's the alternative exactly?
Just turn unknowns into knowns by testing and peer reviews.
I don't know how this addresses people who insist that we get somehow get back to normal by ignoring the virus.7 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.5 -
In Indiana at the start the whole thing was 2 weeks to slow the spread - and then they kept extending it. When I go out places here everyone I see is wearing a mask and physicians are reporting both to pts and in their progress notes that the pt is compliant with the current guidelines. My sister in law's mother said when she was in the hospital her doctor said all his patients had reported following guidelines. Around here we have a few families who would normally have full driveways and cars on the street around the holidays which were completely absent this year - I'm not convinced that this new surge in cases is because of non-compliant people but instead that these measures don't really work as advertised and only serve to make us feel better and like we are doing something.
Regardless this isn't sustainable since we are in month 9-10 with no end in sight.
How many threads do you see on this site where people can't lose weight while eating 1200 calories. And generally the answer is that they are not eating 1200 calories. People are not good at self reporting behavior. My mother will tell you she is compliant, and she believes it. But she isn't.
It's still possible to get Covid even though you wear a mask and try to social distance. It's not 100 percent effective. But if you're saying only compliant people are getting it, that's ridiculous.
My mother also thinks she's compliant but isn't.- Her mask slips down under her nose and she doesn't realize it and doesn't pull it back up. I bought her one that has adjustable ear elastics.
- She is just terrible with staying 6' away from people.
On the plus side, for her doctor's appointments - they have stopped overbooking and now she can get in and out. But now I'm aware of the issue of medical overbooking and will be very annoyed by it when it starts happening again. I've been really enjoying all these mostly empty waiting rooms for my own medical issues.8 -
janejellyroll wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?
It sure sounded like it was going to be 2 weeks. The governor of my state repeatedly said 2 weeks to slow the spread - right up to the 2 week deadline and then he extended it, over and over and over again. Maybe you are right and that it would never have worked (though most people I know stayed home during that time, only going to the store and home and/or having things delivered. After the constant extensions in the spring, and the wishy-washing that many in state and local government had in regards to what was acceptable and what was not (for instance not condemning protesting, but not allowing a gym to open with a very limited capacity, either gathering is fine or it's not). So now of course it's going to be harder to convince people to continue complying. If they did what was asked and it was never enough and they kept moving the bar many people are rightfully frustrated.
It's a virus, it will spread, it will mutate. I don't know what the answer is, but many people are reaching the end of their ropes with all these restrictions. I've been accused of not having a suggestion since I don't think these restrictions are sustainable and that's true. I just don't know. But all the people saying we have to keep doing this...what are your suggestions on the fact that kids are falling behind in school (especially those who lack parental supervision or ability to help and primarily low income kids), mental health issues including suicide attemtps are on the rise and the job losses that have been suffered are hurting people immensely. What do you think we can do to support these issues if you insist we must continue the restrictions?7 -
janejellyroll wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?
It sure sounded like it was going to be 2 weeks. The governor of my state repeatedly said 2 weeks to slow the spread - right up to the 2 week deadline and then he extended it, over and over and over again. Maybe you are right and that it would never have worked (though most people I know stayed home during that time, only going to the store and home and/or having things delivered. After the constant extensions in the spring, and the wishy-washing that many in state and local government had in regards to what was acceptable and what was not (for instance not condemning protesting, but not allowing a gym to open with a very limited capacity, either gathering is fine or it's not). So now of course it's going to be harder to convince people to continue complying. If they did what was asked and it was never enough and they kept moving the bar many people are rightfully frustrated.
It's a virus, it will spread, it will mutate. I don't know what the answer is, but many people are reaching the end of their ropes with all these restrictions. I've been accused of not having a suggestion since I don't think these restrictions are sustainable and that's true. I just don't know. But all the people saying we have to keep doing this...what are your suggestions on the fact that kids are falling behind in school (especially those who lack parental supervision or ability to help and primarily low income kids), mental health issues including suicide attemtps are on the rise and the job losses that have been suffered are hurting people immensely. What do you think we can do to support these issues if you insist we must continue the restrictions?
I have no doubt that many of us personally experience the people around us doing the right things (at least the parts of their behavior we can observe), but in reality we know from many people are minimally compliant or not at all compliant. People are going to gyms and indoor dining when they can, they gather for holidays, they're having parties, some students had no option to do anything but in-person classes, and large gatherings were still happening in places where they were allowed.
I can't think of any problem impacting people that is made BETTER by hundreds of thousands of new cases and a couple thousand deaths every day. These people dying isn't going to help anyone with mental health issues. It appears we may be about to begin a situation with the government taking this actually seriously and also considering what steps we need to take to help people navigate the challenges of this situation, which will be a welcome change.19 -
snowflake954 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.
I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.
Also they had massive polio vaccinating at the public schools.
There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻♀️8 -
missysippy930 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.
I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.
There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻♀️
I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.0 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?
It sure sounded like it was going to be 2 weeks. The governor of my state repeatedly said 2 weeks to slow the spread - right up to the 2 week deadline and then he extended it, over and over and over again. Maybe you are right and that it would never have worked (though most people I know stayed home during that time, only going to the store and home and/or having things delivered. After the constant extensions in the spring, and the wishy-washing that many in state and local government had in regards to what was acceptable and what was not (for instance not condemning protesting, but not allowing a gym to open with a very limited capacity, either gathering is fine or it's not). So now of course it's going to be harder to convince people to continue complying. If they did what was asked and it was never enough and they kept moving the bar many people are rightfully frustrated.
It's a virus, it will spread, it will mutate. I don't know what the answer is, but many people are reaching the end of their ropes with all these restrictions. I've been accused of not having a suggestion since I don't think these restrictions are sustainable and that's true. I just don't know. But all the people saying we have to keep doing this...what are your suggestions on the fact that kids are falling behind in school (especially those who lack parental supervision or ability to help and primarily low income kids), mental health issues including suicide attemtps are on the rise and the job losses that have been suffered are hurting people immensely. What do you think we can do to support these issues if you insist we must continue the restrictions?
I have no doubt that many of us personally experience the people around us doing the right things (at least the parts of their behavior we can observe), but in reality we know from many people are minimally compliant or not at all compliant. People are going to gyms and indoor dining when they can, they gather for holidays, they're having parties, some students had no option to do anything but in-person classes, and large gatherings were still happening in places where they were allowed.
I can't think of any problem impacting people that is made BETTER by hundreds of thousands of new cases and a couple thousand deaths every day. These people dying isn't going to help anyone with mental health issues. It appears we may be about to begin a situation with the government taking this actually seriously and also considering what steps we need to take to help people navigate the challenges of this situation, which will be a welcome change.
If gyms and indoor dining, as examples, are allowed in your area by state and/or local government and you go, following the rules in place for these businesses, aren't people being compliant?
You're complying with the law, but not really acting wisely (for example, we know that indoor dining is a major risk factor for transmission). This is why it doesn't really make sense to cite all these people who claim to have been perfectly compliant and still getting sick. Even if it's legal to indoor dine in parts of the US, it's not safe.
If you're doing the bare minimum legally, some people are counting that as compliance and then wondering why compliance isn't working.21 -
Here is an actual "Coronavirus Prep" post. Hubby is flying home tomorrow after necessary travel. Once he arrives, we will both need to quarantine until he gets a negative COVID test. I have just finished pre-tracking all my food through next Friday so that I can grocery shop tomorrow and stay locked down for a week, minimum. If he gets a positive test, we will have a whole different problem.....9
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janejellyroll wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?
Not to mention, the "two week initiative" came out of the mouths of politicians. Dr. Fauci and other experts in the field of epidemiology were pretty quick to say that two weeks wouldn't do anything to flatten the curve. NM went into "lockdown" on March 10...there was no 2 weeks...it started with 4 weeks, but even then our local health officials and DOH said it would likely be longer. I appreciate that in NM, the governor and other politicians, while having to actually make the call on some tough decisions, really let the experts that we have take the lead in recommendations, as well as speaking to the public.
Still people here are tired and want restrictions lifted...and they point to neighboring states like AZ and TX as examples of just letting things fly. I'd wager the biggest difference is that NM has a total of 6 hub hospitals with ICU capacity for the entire state...some of our neighboring states have that for just one city. We are at 100% ICU capacity and have been now for a couple of months...for whatever reasons, there seems to be a lot of people around here who don't think that's really an issue. I know a quite a few people here in health care, including my step brother who is an ICU nurse and they've all said the same thing...they're used to running near capacity as that is how they make money...but they've never been maxed out for months, and they can usually rely on a high degree of turnover with discharges and new arrivals...but people are taking up beds for weeks and in some cases months.14 -
Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The 15 day slow the spread initiative never came from the professionals and experts...it came from a politician.12 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »In Indiana at the start the whole thing was 2 weeks to slow the spread - and then they kept extending it. When I go out places here everyone I see is wearing a mask and physicians are reporting both to pts and in their progress notes that the pt is compliant with the current guidelines. My sister in law's mother said when she was in the hospital her doctor said all his patients had reported following guidelines. Around here we have a few families who would normally have full driveways and cars on the street around the holidays which were completely absent this year - I'm not convinced that this new surge in cases is because of non-compliant people but instead that these measures don't really work as advertised and only serve to make us feel better and like we are doing something.
Regardless this isn't sustainable since we are in month 9-10 with no end in sight.
Have you ever seen the medical drama "House"? Patients lie.
I don't think it's necessarily even a "lie" really. I would wager that many people, while not reckless in their behavior, do make decisions that aren't 100% compliant given their own personal risk assessment and comfort levels.
If someone asked me straight out, are you compliant with the restrictions and guidelines set forth, my immediate response would be yes...as for the most part me and my family are. In reality though, we have taken certain risks along the way that aren't 100% compliant...my mom comes to visit every couple of weeks or so and we eat and hang out...no masks, etc. My kids have a small circle of friends that they are allowed to see on the somewhat regular in order to maintain their sanity...we don't have any big parties or anything, but we do have friends over from time to time for dinner...we did more of that in the summer as we could all sit outside around the pool.
At any rate, there are things that we do that we have assessed as relatively low risk...but there is risk there none the less.
Beyond that, it also becomes a question of compliant with what? My inlaws live in AZ and they tell us that they are compliant and being safe...they actually aren't lying in regards to the compliance aspect as they wear masks where they are required, etc...but everything is pretty open, so they're out and about and eating out, etc. Technically they are in compliance as those things are open for business...but much of what they do isn't particularly safe and it's not like it's an every once in awhile stuff either.10 -
Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.4
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Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.
What is this question in reference to on this thread? Little confused...
I've seen kids held back at my kids' school...it's not terribly common, but wasn't common when I was growing up either. There is a pair of twins down the street from us and they are separated and not in the same classroom. If you're talking about holding a twin back a grade so they aren't in the same classes and that being the only reasons...you'd have a major lawsuit on your hands.1 -
missysippy930 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.
I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.
There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻♀️
I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.
You’re not hallucinating, I was a child of the 70s too. We were supposed to put our heads under our desks to avoid a nuclear blast. That seems unlikely to work.
I also remember, during the Iran hostage crisis, one teacher telling us that the hostages weren’t allowed to talk, and having us “pretend to be hostages” to find out what that was like. I’m pretty sure that teacher was just a genius.8 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The 15 day slow the spread initiative never came from the professionals and experts...it came from a politician.
That was the surgeon general in the video. While not an epidemiologist, he is a doctor.2 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »rheddmobile wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.
I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.
There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻♀️
I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.
You’re not hallucinating, I was a child of the 70s too. We were supposed to put our heads under our desks to avoid a nuclear blast. That seems unlikely to work.
Just developing flexibility so you could give your *kitten* a proper kiss goodbye.
@theoldguy1 Sounds like what I vaguely remember. Funny thing is that I don't remember the training continuing into middle school and such. I am only remembering 6th grade when I would have been 10/11.
edit:
reading the posts in reverse
@rheddmobile I LOVE the hostage idea your teacher had. I'm betting that was not the excuse of my 3rd grade teacher that taped my mouth shut though. :P1 -
For curiosity, I looked up what Dr. Fauci was saying at the same point in time as the 15 day to slow the spread. That video above was March 18th. The following is from March 20th. IMO essentially the same point in time.
WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Friday that Americans will most likely have to continue staying at home and practicing social distancing for “at least several weeks " amid the coronavirus outbreak.
“If you look at the trajectory of the curves of outbreaks and other areas, at least going to be several weeks,” Fauci said in an interview with Savannah Guthrie on the “TODAY” show.
“I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now it's going to be over. I don't think there's a chance of that. I think it's going to be several weeks .”
Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak
When speaking about whether it’s time for President Donald Trump to use the Defense Production Act to produce critical supplies, Fauci suggested that the U.S. should be doing everything in its power to slow the outbreak.
“I think we should do everything we possibly can do. I mean, in all sectors, because obviously as I've said so many times, when you think you're maybe overreacting, you probably are not acting as forcefully as you should. So as we've always said, we've got to try very much to stay ahead of the curve.”
This week, Trump predicted that the outbreak could dissipate by July or August. The White House announced restrictive national guidelines that advise people to work from home for 15 days, postpone unnecessary travel and limit social gatherings to no more than 10 people.
“We’ll see what happens after that,” Trump said at the White House coronavirus task force briefing Tuesday. “If we do this right, our country — and the world, frankly — but our country can be rolling again pretty quickly. Pretty quickly.”
At the briefing Tuesday, Fauci, a key member of the task force, was asked how long will it take before officials will know whether the guidelines are actually flattening the curve.
“It probably would be several weeks and maybe longer before we know whether we're having an effect,” he said.
On Wednesday, a reporter asked Trump about a plan compiled by the Department of Health and Human Services that the outbreak could last as long as 18 months. Trump said, “No, we’re not seeing that at all,” when asked if he’s seen those estimates.
IMO we passed several weeks a long way back.5 -
Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.cwolfman13 wrote: »What is this question in reference to on this thread? Little confused...
I've seen kids held back at my kids' school...it's not terribly common, but wasn't common when I was growing up either. There is a pair of twins down the street from us and they are separated and not in the same classroom. If you're talking about holding a twin back a grade so they aren't in the same classes and that being the only reasons...you'd have a major lawsuit on your hands.
Probably this:janejellyroll wrote: »Catching up on the discussion.
Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.
@DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.
@ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.
@annpt77 Always said better than I can!
The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.
And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?
What exactly are you asking for here?
It sure sounded like it was going to be 2 weeks. The governor of my state repeatedly said 2 weeks to slow the spread - right up to the 2 week deadline and then he extended it, over and over and over again. Maybe you are right and that it would never have worked (though most people I know stayed home during that time, only going to the store and home and/or having things delivered. After the constant extensions in the spring, and the wishy-washing that many in state and local government had in regards to what was acceptable and what was not (for instance not condemning protesting, but not allowing a gym to open with a very limited capacity, either gathering is fine or it's not). So now of course it's going to be harder to convince people to continue complying. If they did what was asked and it was never enough and they kept moving the bar many people are rightfully frustrated.
It's a virus, it will spread, it will mutate. I don't know what the answer is, but many people are reaching the end of their ropes with all these restrictions. I've been accused of not having a suggestion since I don't think these restrictions are sustainable and that's true. I just don't know. But all the people saying we have to keep doing this...what are your suggestions on the fact that kids are falling behind in school (especially those who lack parental supervision or ability to help and primarily low income kids), mental health issues including suicide attemtps are on the rise and the job losses that have been suffered are hurting people immensely. What do you think we can do to support these issues if you insist we must continue the restrictions?2 -
missysippy930 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.
Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.
The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.
I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.
(This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)
I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)
One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.
The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.
Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.
The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.
I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.
No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.
There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)
There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.
I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆
I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.
Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.
As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.
I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.
There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻♀️
I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.
Remember that things I posted a few page back, about how so many people want a strong centralized Covid plan . . . but there's no assurance that that would be a good plan?
"Duck and cover" drills are an example of "maybe not a good plan" (also maybe an example of "best that could be done in circumstances", since effects of nuclear blasts are very large, and there may be a distant zone where this behavior would've protected a few people from some effects.
I was in school in the 1960s, still the thick of this stuff. There were also things that might arguably have been *a little* more helpful as part of an overall plan, BTW, such as very common public bomb shelters, with signage on street level, stocked with survival rations. But that's a digression.
P.S. As a child, I didn't find all of this particularly wounding, and it certainly wasn't long-term scarring. It was too abstract. I don't remember being afraid. The drills were just a thing we did. 🤷♀️ Some of this reaction, I'm sure, is an effect of individual psychological wiring. However, I think that how adults around the child talk about or react to these kinds of things can often be a more powerful influence on the child, than the things themselves. Possibly true of pandemic restrictions/cautions, too.7
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