Coronavirus prep
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rheddmobile wrote: »While there are lots of scary articles about the south African variant, they are based on very limited data. Most of the pros I follow on social media are saying that while this is concerning, other variants have been concerning and turned out to not be a problem.
From what I understand, any new variant has to be more transmissible than the current dominant variant, otherwise it can't get a foothold and dies out. So even if this new guy is better at evading vaccines, if it is less transmissible than Delta it won't matter. Also, it "looks" like it "may" be able to evade vaccines, that's not for sure yet.
The South African scientific community did a fabulous service to the world by identifying and sharing news of this variant so quickly!
That was yesterday’s news - today’s says that the new variant has taken over 75% of new South American cases in a week and is well on it’s way to being 100% in short order. Unless there’s been a mistake made, it looks super transmissible. And there are four cases in HK in fully vaxxed people. I think the only reason I’m not panicking is that my adrenaline system is so worn out from the past two years that I’m now incapable of panic. The good news, such as it is, is that the vax makers think it would “only” take about three months to get a new vax out tailor made for this variant.
Like I said, not panicking - just really really tired of this and wanting to hear some good news.
I haven't seen anything saying it has hit South America that hard. Do you mean South Africa?
Oops, sorry this was a brain fart! Yes, South Africa.2 -
This new variant is called Omicron and has 50 mutations making it unlike the original one that the vaccine was modeled on. Stay safe everyone vaccinated or not it is spreading very fast.1
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If you assume a 1% fatality rate, 777,000 deaths means roughly 78 million Americans have had Covid, which is what, about 23%? If you assume Covid is less fatal than that, it means even more people have had it.Theoldguy1 wrote: »SummerSkier wrote: »@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus.
I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website)
Columbia thinks 1/3 of the US had Covid by the end of 2020. Who know what it is almost a year later.
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-2020
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spiriteagle99 wrote: »Me too.
And I'm reading the same information you are. We had a stock market crash in Europe yesterday due to news of the SA variant. My husband says that means it's definitely worth watching. My family in Minnesota want me to come home. Since we don't know where this is going, I'm on the fence.
One of the lessons of this whole debacle is that life is uncertain. I would go see your family while you still can. In February of 2020 I went to visit my 95 year old father in Texas as he had some serious health concerns. I am very glad I did as he died a year later, in a nursing home where we would not have been able to visit him.
At this point, I have become a lot more fatalistic. I feel like I will eventually get some variant of Covid. All I can do is try to live a healthy lifestyle, get vaccinated and boosted, and hope I'm not one of the unlucky ones who end up with long Covid or worse. I am not willing to put my life on hold forever and I'm not going to waste a lot of energy stressing about it.
Everything you've said has value. Did you fly to Texas? How long was the flight? For me to go home means at least a 13 or 14 hr flight, changing planes somewhere because there is no direct flight Rome--Minneapolis. The possibilities for acquiring COVID on route are endless. What if I bring the SA variant home to Mom (she's on a farm and fairly isolated)? She could die because I go home to visit. The SA variant has been confirmed in Rome. 2 weeks ago a man returned from Mozambique. His entire family has it.
So, yes, I'm weighing my options very carefully. Things will be completely different in a month or month and a half.11 -
When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.13 -
snowflake954 wrote: »When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.
That is a lot of variables to weigh. I don't envy you that tough calculus. Especially when people in the same living group don't have the same risk tolerance (or approach to risk entirely). The public messaging here has been to plan your togetherness around the risk to the most vulnerable person. Maybe the unvaccinated brother can plan his trip to be away for the duration of the covid spike? Not sure about Mexico (maybe someone on the thread knows), but many countries require proof of vaccination in addition to proof of negative test result to enter.2 -
snowflake954 wrote: »When I said things will probably be entirely different in a month and a half, I should explain that the forecast is not for the better. The experts here expect a spike in cases in January. That's when my SIL said they'd like me to come home, because my brother (who lives with my mother and is a NVax) always goes to Mexico for a month or two in January and February. My SIL said that they are also planning a trip for FEB.
My husband (who loves my family) said "Are they nuts? January and February are the absolute worse 2 months to go to Minnesota", and of course, COVID will be spiking. Also, there are 7 of us. Being the oldest, I always feel responsible. It's easy to guilt-trip me.
First of all, I agree with your husband; I live in South Dakota and would never choose to come here in the dead of winter. Personally, I'd try to wait for more information before making travel plans. How fast will omicron spread in places with better vaccine uptake? Will it be milder illnesses or more severe?5 -
BurnTheButter wrote: »Good God people just buy what you need! If everyone just buys what they need we will all be ok!
This thread was started in the spring of 2020 as the first wave of COVID-19 hit the US when everything shut down and nobody knew what was going to happen.6 -
One of the most diligent people I know, just told me she's tested positive. She got her booster a couple weeks ago, hardly goes anywhere that's not important and if she does go out, it's always masked. It's getting so discouraging.14
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The gov of NY declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Omicrons arrival. It goes into effect Dec 3. 🥵
In one way.. preemptively declaring a SOE allows for a faster response and is highly diligent.. on the other hand.. I’m asking myself - what do they know about Omicron that we don’t?
There is so much we don’t know about the new variant. Only thing to do in is keep taking precautions. IMHO
I and my spouse used to do well over a dozen international flights+ per year pre Covid. Now… it’s a tap dance of regulations and being anxious.
I’m married to a European and going to see relatives internationally is complicated to say the least. We rapid test, PCR test, quarantine. Repeat.
@snowflake954 - there is a PCR test center at MSP airport similar to Fiumicino & JFK.
If it’s helpful - https://www.mspairport.com/airport/covid-19-testing-site
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The following is just my summary of what I read this afternoon from virologists/epidemiologists I follow on twitter and FB, so please feel free to take it with a grain of salt!
Don't know if/how much omicron might evade vaccines. Remember that vaccine protection is not all or nothing. At most, it would just make vaxxed people slightly more likely to get infected. It's not like everyone goes back to square one.
It is not known if omicron will out compete Delta, as there wasn't much Delta in S Africa. If omicron IS becoming dominant in SA, it's out competing whatever variant they had.
Not enough data to judge severity of omicron, but the small initial sample size is promising. In fact, it would actually be good if omicron out competes Delta but is less severe, which is possible.
Vaccines would most likely just need to be tweaked, if even that is necessary. Initial data sounds like still all (or practically all) hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
Also remember there have been other variants of concern that looked dangerous in one place they got a foothold but never managed to get traction anywhere else.11 -
Yep, if Omicron is more transmissible but milder, it could be a blessing. Praying!The following is just my summary of what I read this afternoon from virologists/epidemiologists I follow on twitter and FB, so please feel free to take it with a grain of salt!
Don't know if/how much omicron might evade vaccines. Remember that vaccine protection is not all or nothing. At most, it would just make vaxxed people slightly more likely to get infected. It's not like everyone goes back to square one.
It is not known if omicron will out compete Delta, as there wasn't much Delta in S Africa. If omicron IS becoming dominant in SA, it's out competing whatever variant they had.
Not enough data to judge severity of omicron, but the small initial sample size is promising. In fact, it would actually be good if omicron out competes Delta but is less severe, which is possible.
Vaccines would most likely just need to be tweaked, if even that is necessary. Initial data sounds like still all (or practically all) hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
Also remember there have been other variants of concern that looked dangerous in one place they got a foothold but never managed to get traction anywhere else.
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Our Omicron cases (a man who works for an Italian petrol company in Mozambique and his family) have been whisked off to a special center for quarantine and study. He and his family were all vaccinated. Their symptoms are mild and he says that it's thanks to the vaccine. This is just one family, and further study is needed. It's all over the News this morning.
Yesterday they had Open Day for the booster 40yrs and up. The centers were crowded with long lines.
Will keep you informed of new developments.11 -
so long as toilet paper stays available I will have no complaints.4
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Just had a letter from the NHS saying I'm (still) eligible for the booster, we have been for a month, they told me then. There is nowhere to say, we are trying but there are none available in our area. We can't take a holiday to go somewhere better provided for because we child mind the ggs. Its not as if we've not tried to get an appointment both on line and by phone its a lottery. Then the powers that be keep opening up the age groups who are eligible. It sounds good but their is no substance to the offer as it is.
I'm hacked off, tucked up with arthritic pain on a day off the chill got into my knees and I'm unable to take standard pain relief because of salicylate intolerance and paracetamol use corn binders!! Corn = Salicylate for the uninitiated, I do use alternative supplements and have tracked down the upper levels of mg advised. I was not permitted to get help with the Salicylate rubbish because the dr's did not believe me and knew better than a professor in immunology. I hate Britain right now.8 -
The following is just my summary of what I read this afternoon from virologists/epidemiologists I follow on twitter and FB, so please feel free to take it with a grain of salt!
Don't know if/how much omicron might evade vaccines. Remember that vaccine protection is not all or nothing. At most, it would just make vaxxed people slightly more likely to get infected. It's not like everyone goes back to square one.
It is not known if omicron will out compete Delta, as there wasn't much Delta in S Africa. If omicron IS becoming dominant in SA, it's out competing whatever variant they had.
Not enough data to judge severity of omicron, but the small initial sample size is promising. In fact, it would actually be good if omicron out competes Delta but is less severe, which is possible.
Vaccines would most likely just need to be tweaked, if even that is necessary. Initial data sounds like still all (or practically all) hospitalizations are unvaxxed.
Also remember there have been other variants of concern that looked dangerous in one place they got a foothold but never managed to get traction anywhere else.
Yeah, I've been following those TWiV scientists for a long time too.
They aren't (yet) concerned about omricon, and think the vaccines will continue to do the job. TWiV will have an episode about it this week. They continue to say, "Don't listen to the 10 seconds of fear-selling on the news. The vaccines are very good."
They continue to hit on a couple things: the sooner you're vaxxed up the better. It takes about six months post-vaccination to produce the strongest array of B and T cells that are the defense against serious lower respiratory disease. If you've had covid, get vaccinated. They call that a Superpower of protection - the vast library of B & T cells produced from infection then vaccination is the best protection possible.
Just finding the virus in your nose in a rapid test (or even in PCR) is not reason to panic for most people if they're vaccinated. IF you're in a high risk group and you test positive ask for monoclonal antibodies right away, don't wait to get sicker.9 -
Quoting myself here, I'm a bit over my head on this virology science.It takes about six months post-vaccination to produce the strongest array of B and T cells
I may have this time line wrong...it could be just a couple months. I'm re-listening to that episode. They have no good way of measuring, but they're still studying the severe disease response once regular antibodies contract. In any case, it's not antibodies but B & T cells that will be doing the work going forward and they're apparently not measureable in living animals.
He says, "If you're fully vaccinated, don't worry about any variant that comes along." ~Vincent R. Racaniello
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Racaniello
(he's 68 and he's not even getting the third dose)
My take on it is we can't keep getting mass inoculations every six months forever just because there's another variant, and they don't believe that will be necessary. Once some time has passed post-vaccination then the antibodies aren't the most important thing, it's the B & T cells which take a little while to develop in the spleen and lymph nodes.
Antibodies are flame-throwers, B & T cells are the Navy Seals. (my analogy)
On that note, I'm staying out of this! Again! I'm trying to be smarter than I actually am.
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Found out this morning that my cousin and her family have Covid. Not sure if all of them have tested positive, but I know she, her husband, and the youngest have. She and her husband are vaccinated but no boosters. None of the kids are vaccinated, but 2 of them are still too young and the other 2 would have been just able to get it. So far none have had serious symptoms. They only got tested because of the "what if" and her husband works outside of the home (his job also requires him to go into other people's homes).
I do have an appointment for my booster on Saturday. I will be getting Pfizer even though I had Moderna for my first 2. That is what the location nearest me had.6 -
cmriverside wrote: »Quoting myself here, I'm a bit over my head on this virology science.It takes about six months post-vaccination to produce the strongest array of B and T cells
I may have this time line wrong...it could be just a couple months. I'm re-listening to that episode, and it might be two months. They have no good way of measuring, but they're still studying the severe disease incidence once regular antibodies contract. In any case, it's not antibodies but B & T cells that will be doing the work going forward.
We can't keep getting mass inoculations every six months forever just because there's another variant, and they don't believe that will be necessary.
I think the worst misinformation out there, which is repeated by lots of doctors of other specialties in the media unfortunately, is that everything is about the antibodies. And virologists are just flummoxed by how the development of memory cells is just completely ignored, when that's really what long term immunity is all about.
What my understanding from them is, and I wonder if you'd agree, is that we may need boosters now to keep antibody levels up until it's been long enough to make sure the vaccines are leaving us with those B&T cells to protect us for the long haul.
On a slightly related note, TWIV recently mentioned a NYT article that quoted a doctor saying we'll be wearing masks for the rest of our lives. The doctor was a cardiologist, and they had a chuckle at a legit news source quoting a heart doctor about a respiratory virus
To be clear, they strongly disagreed with that idea. 7 -
cmriverside wrote: »Quoting myself here, I'm a bit over my head on this virology science.It takes about six months post-vaccination to produce the strongest array of B and T cells
I may have this time line wrong...it could be just a couple months. I'm re-listening to that episode, and it might be two months. They have no good way of measuring, but they're still studying the severe disease incidence once regular antibodies contract. In any case, it's not antibodies but B & T cells that will be doing the work going forward.
We can't keep getting mass inoculations every six months forever just because there's another variant, and they don't believe that will be necessary.
I think the worst misinformation out there, which is repeated by lots of doctors of other specialties in the media unfortunately, is that everything is about the antibodies. And virologists are just flummoxed by how the development of memory cells is just completely ignored, when that's really what long term immunity is all about.
What my understanding from them is, and I wonder if you'd agree, is that we may need boosters now to keep antibody levels up until it's been long enough to make sure the vaccines are leaving us with those B&T cells to protect us for the long haul.
On a slightly related note, TWIV recently mentioned a NYT article that quoted a doctor saying we'll be wearing masks for the rest of our lives. The doctor was a cardiologist, and they had a chuckle at a legit news source quoting a heart doctor about a respiratory virus To be clear, they strongly disagreed with that idea.
That's exactly what I am understanding, too.
Since it takes some time to develop those B & T cells, the third shot vaccinations are buying us that time and then we'll be as well protected as we are going to be AND it's a super high level of protection.
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On a slightly related note, TWIV recently mentioned a NYT article that quoted a doctor saying we'll be wearing masks for the rest of our lives. The doctor was a cardiologist, and they had a chuckle at a legit news source quoting a heart doctor about a respiratory virus To be clear, they strongly disagreed with that idea.
Oh I dunno, I think I'd happily wear a mask for the rest of my life. It hides my RBF and the spinach stuck in my teeth, adds a layer of sun protection in summer and keeps my nose warm in our subzero temperatures.
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On a slightly related note, TWIV recently mentioned a NYT article that quoted a doctor saying we'll be wearing masks for the rest of our lives. The doctor was a cardiologist, and they had a chuckle at a legit news source quoting a heart doctor about a respiratory virus To be clear, they strongly disagreed with that idea.
Oh I dunno, I think I'd happily wear a mask for the rest of my life. It hides my RBF and the spinach stuck in my teeth, adds a layer of sun protection in summer and keeps my nose warm in our subzero temperatures.
I have used A LOT less makeup 7 -
Had a heartwarming encounter yesterday. Was giving advent calendars to the neighborhood children, and a little girl excitedly told me she and her little sister were getting jabs today. She had such a gleam in her eye, it made me wonder what exactly it meant to her and her social experience. She also wanted to talk about planning the holiday party our block usually has but obviously did not last year. I thought that was so sweet, too. She asked if it was ok to hug.
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Thank you for the suggestion, Theoldguy1.
There are simply not enough appointments for the size of population available anywhere within 50 Miles possibly 100 miles. The powers that be do not seem to care that there are insufficient appointments/vaccines for those who are now able to enter the lottery. They increased the numbers eligible for vaccines earlier today, just heard its everyone over 18. We became eligible for boosters as the numbers were first opened up and then able to book with a month to go. Neither of us have time to sit with fingers the last time we tried there were thousands ahead of my husband in the queue. There are even care staff who can't get vaccines and they can't work after the turn of the year if they are not completely covered by the vaccine. This incentive will back fire when they can't legally work. The country is in one heck of a mess.
The letter from the NHS made me feel as if it were my/our fault that we can't get a vaccine anywhere. We seem to have small pop up clinics which do may be 60 in an afternoon when there could be a 100000 on the doorstep.
I know only too well that if either of us go down with the virus in any of its guises we will be unable to look after the kids. Thank you, I need no reminding. I worked in care, the NHS and Public and Private premises as well as clerical staff at different times over the years. I had a flu vaccine for the sake of an elderly lady, I know my responsibilities. I know if my knees are not up to climbing the two flights of stairs up to their flat at 7-30 in the morning I should not be looking after the kids. Its what I do. Keep the parents in work to keep their bills paid. I grew up in a Public Health workers home, I know about the need for hygiene.
I just want there to be some order to this chaos.8 -
My take on it is we can't keep getting mass inoculations every six months forever just because there's another variant, and they don't believe that will be necessary
It seems highly likely to me that the long term maintenance will be annual jabs.
Even though immunity might wane somewhat after, say, 9 months, for reasons of real life practicality I think it will be annual thing like flu vaccine.2 -
Might be making our presence felt in the highest levels. Actually in Parliament with the Secretary of State! My/our battle is not just for ourselves its for all the others across Dorset. possibly into Wiltshire and beyond who also can't find slots through the national booking scheme. True our situation is complicated because we are spending so many hours with little children when we can't watch the national website all day long for the 30 or so booster vaccines which may crop up at some future date for what seems like minutes to be taken by goodness knows who.
The medical practices who prepared the original system for both first and second vaccine for the over 50's and vulnerable in descending order from over 80's through care homes and staff, to us and younger persons now have to prioritise everyday medical care and not permitted to get involved in boosters and last minute first and second vaccines. I know these staff are rushed off their feet and suffering the stresses and strains of the pandemic too, like hospitals, ambulance service, and other emergency teams. The local Marine base became involved as volunteer vaccinators. The army base is further away across the county. Our local medical practices pulled out all the stops, local knowledge makes all the difference.
The message we received this morning form our MP's team member, did contain some possibly useful information, a possibly point of contact I shared with my mothers care home, they have staff also looking for booster vaccines using this inefficient lottery system. My hope is by contacting the central point for care home residents and staff they might be able to come up with something. My hope is they might also share any positive information between their group of care homes and possibly with other care home groups in the area.
I suppose its just possible the care staff may be able to register their NHS numbers with a local booster set up and possibly were there to be any booster vaccines unallocated at the end of the day, about to be binned the care staff could be called at on to be there in 10 minutes, making best use of what is available.
I just hope we, the general elderly population can get out of this mess. Possibly the system could be altered to accept our personal NHS numbers in age priority and only when these are covered by appointments release to those who are in lesser need. I'm sure there are some system teams available who could make the thing work more effectively. If the worst comes to the worst we have large companies, systems and networks locally, who might be pleased to help.5 -
Are they still giving the 'dig into your skull' Covid test?? My poor neighbor had to have one yesterday and he's already suffering anxiety/agitation(he's 88) and it was he!! for him. 2
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Are they still giving the 'dig into your skull' Covid test?? My poor neighbor had to have one yesterday and he's already suffering anxiety/agitation(he's 88) and it was he!! for him.
It depends...some places still do that deep swab because it's supposed to be the most accurate.
I'm tested twice a week for work, two tests each time (a rapid test and a PCR), and they are nasal swabs, but not deep ones. Probably about halfway up the nose. They are not terribly comfortable, but also not painful and only take a few seconds.4 -
Are they still giving the 'dig into your skull' Covid test?? My poor neighbor had to have one yesterday and he's already suffering anxiety/agitation(he's 88) and it was he!! for him.
I had to get tested about a month ago as I came down with some bug and my work requires a negative test for me to come back to work. It was a self administered nose swab, but just inside the nostrils2 -
rheddmobile wrote: »
If you assume a 1% fatality rate, 777,000 deaths means roughly 78 million Americans have had Covid, which is what, about 23%? If you assume Covid is less fatal than that, it means even more people have had it.Theoldguy1 wrote: »SummerSkier wrote: »@spiriteagle99 I hear you. It seems like we are in an endless cycle with this virus. I was just looking at some #s. US Pop 333.7M, and identified 49.05M cases. Is that really possible that almost 14.7% of the US pop has had a case? Did I math that right? As far as World total 261.2M cases vs 7,846M Pop seems 3.3% (just using the data from the NYT website)
Columbia thinks 1/3 of the US had Covid by the end of 2020. Who know what it is almost a year later.
https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/one-three-americans-already-had-covid-19-end-2020
I'd be very cautious of any numbers coming from the US. There are several states here that flat out lie about their numbers. How many have tested positive, number hospitalized, number of deaths, etc.
The CDC does the best it can in reporting numbers, but they can't report on numbers they don't have.5
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