Coronavirus prep

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  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    I can't find a free link to the study in LA County but here's a brief outline of the results.

    On Monday, an initial report from that study was released. Based on their findings, researchers estimate that about 4.1% of the county’s adult population could have an antibody to the virus. After adjusting that estimate for the statistical margin of error, their findings suggest that somewhere between 2.8% and 5.6% of adults in the county have antibodies to the virus in their blood.

    As my colleague Melanie Mason explains in her story, that would translate to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who had recovered from an infection in L.A. County by early April. But at the time researchers were conducting the study, there were fewer than 8,000 confirmed cases in the county. One doesn’t need a PhD to know that these are staggeringly different numbers.

    So, what does all this mean? The study suggests that the coronavirus is much more widespread than originally known, but also potentially much less lethal.


    We're waiting for more access to anti-body testing here. I'm fairly confident that both our daughter in SF and my husband had it at the end of Feb or early March. If my husband did have it I may have also and been asymptomatic. Not hanging all our hopes on it but it would be nice to know and help us relax things a bit here maybe.

    Cases in Riverside County CA, where I live are still increasing everyday as are hospitalizations, Icu bed #'s and deaths so we're still on the upswing side of things unfortunately. They did open the golf courses, tennis courts and some of the trails yesterday though. Lots of precautions in place though still.

    Not quite as high as the Santa Clara County results, but still much more than 50% of cases are asymptomatic.
  • smithker75
    smithker75 Posts: 80 Member
    jo_nz wrote: »
    smithker75 wrote: »
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    New Zealand had it's announcement on moving from Level 4 to Level 3 (which is a slight loosening of our quite strict lockdown rules) this afternoon. We were originally scheduled to come out of Level 4 this coming Thursday at the earliest. Level 3 comes in on Tuesday week, which gives an additional five days of hard core lockdown to really solidify the low transmission/new case numbers, and also means that those businesses that can resume are doing so at the start of the work week (Monday is a public holiday for ANZAC Day).

    People who are able to work from home must continue to do so, retail, bars, cafes, restaurants etc remain physically closed to the public, but any of them who can trade without physical interaction with the public are able to (so, all online shopping can resume - previously only essential goods were available/able to be delivered, restaurants can do delivery or contactless pick up, etc), early childhood centres and school for up to Year 10 is available for those who need it (ie parents going back to work with no other options for childcare), strict requirements for distancing and hygiene in place for any operational businesses, we can venture a little further afield for recreation/exercise but still expected to be at home the majority of the time if not working away from home.

    ETA: NZ is in really good shape, our number of new daily cases is down to single digits (actually oscillating between high single and low to mid teens), our number of recovered cases is nearly double the number of active (which sits at 454 as of this morning).

    I'd have liked to see Level 4 continued for an additional week longer (and coming out of it on May the 4th would have just been cool), but I think so long as people get the message that Level 3 is not a licence to go out and start socialising, we'll be fine.

    It will be interesting to see how Australia rolls back restrictions now that NZ have started. I know we are a ways behind, and that it will vary from state to state when it does.
    Schools are open here for children of essential workers and others are learning remotely at home. Do you know what the reasoning is for NZ schools to open only for students up to Year 10? Just curious as I work in education management (Aus) and this hasn't been something I've heard discussed here.

    The limitation for up to Year 10 is due to the fact that kids over 14 can be legally left home alone here.

    We have received notification from my son's high school and daughter's primary school that for the kids attending school (kids of workers who can't work from home) that they will still be receiving the same online programmes as those at home. They will just be in a classroom supervised by a teacher, not actually being taught in person.

    Aha, I see. The delivery of school work here is the same for those attending 'in person' or online too.
  • JeromeBarry1
    JeromeBarry1 Posts: 10,179 Member
    Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.
  • TonyB0588
    TonyB0588 Posts: 9,520 Member
    Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.

    Are you also watching the rate of new infections? How many days between doubling of total infections?

    Where I live, very few are dying, so that's not an interesting figure to watch. The number of recoveries per day compared to the number of new infections per day is my benchmark now.
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,267 MFP Moderator
    Another metric for those in the US, but again, dependent upon testing. https://rt.live/ This link shows graphs measuring the effective reproduction rate of the virus.
  • TonyB0588
    TonyB0588 Posts: 9,520 Member
    TonyB0588 wrote: »
    Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.

    Are you also watching the rate of new infections? How many days between doubling of total infections?

    Where I live, very few are dying, so that's not an interesting figure to watch. The number of recoveries per day compared to the number of new infections per day is my benchmark now.

    The problem with using infections as a benchmark is that it’s entirely dependent on testing. It’s impossible to know whether infections are increasing because of increased testing, or falling because testing has stalled for some reason such as lack of swabs.

    Yes I see your point. But I'm certainly happy to see the majority of confirmed infections here actually recovering instead of dying.
  • amusedmonkey
    amusedmonkey Posts: 10,330 Member
    TonyB0588 wrote: »
    TonyB0588 wrote: »
    Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.

    Are you also watching the rate of new infections? How many days between doubling of total infections?

    Where I live, very few are dying, so that's not an interesting figure to watch. The number of recoveries per day compared to the number of new infections per day is my benchmark now.

    The problem with using infections as a benchmark is that it’s entirely dependent on testing. It’s impossible to know whether infections are increasing because of increased testing, or falling because testing has stalled for some reason such as lack of swabs.

    Yes I see your point. But I'm certainly happy to see the majority of confirmed infections here actually recovering instead of dying.

    Yes, same here. We haven't had a death in a good while, so that's not a useful metric. In our case, new infections is also not a useful metric right now because of policy changes. All drivers of trucks bringing import items are to be tested at borders and are counted toward the cases even if they were to deliver their shipment and immediately leave the country. They will also be gradually flying back tens of thousands of students who are studying abroad in the near future. These will be quarantined before they're released so although anyone who tests positive will count toward cases, they aren't really a meaningful risk.

    I currently measure progress by the nature of new cases. They usually mention the number of cases daily then list the details such as if the case was imported, close contact of a known case, or unknown source of transmission. The fewer unknowns the better, in my opinion.

    With lockdown being rolled back slowly, they have been increasing testing, and plan to keep increasing it the more things open up, so we might see larger numbers in the future. Our curve will not look like the typical bell curve because of all of the above.
  • Nony_Mouse
    Nony_Mouse Posts: 5,646 Member
    TonyB0588 wrote: »
    TonyB0588 wrote: »
    Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.

    Are you also watching the rate of new infections? How many days between doubling of total infections?

    Where I live, very few are dying, so that's not an interesting figure to watch. The number of recoveries per day compared to the number of new infections per day is my benchmark now.

    The problem with using infections as a benchmark is that it’s entirely dependent on testing. It’s impossible to know whether infections are increasing because of increased testing, or falling because testing has stalled for some reason such as lack of swabs.

    Yes I see your point. But I'm certainly happy to see the majority of confirmed infections here actually recovering instead of dying.

    Yes, same here. We haven't had a death in a good while, so that's not a useful metric. In our case, new infections is also not a useful metric right now because of policy changes. All drivers of trucks bringing import items are to be tested at borders and are counted toward the cases even if they were to deliver their shipment and immediately leave the country. They will also be gradually flying back tens of thousands of students who are studying abroad in the near future. These will be quarantined before they're released so although anyone who tests positive will count toward cases, they aren't really a meaningful risk.

    I currently measure progress by the nature of new cases. They usually mention the number of cases daily then list the details such as if the case was imported, close contact of a known case, or unknown source of transmission. The fewer unknowns the better, in my opinion.

    With lockdown being rolled back slowly, they have been increasing testing, and plan to keep increasing it the more things open up, so we might see larger numbers in the future. Our curve will not look like the typical bell curve because of all of the above.

    Our lovely bell curve may not continue to look like that as things increasingly open up, either. Though if the numbers are going up once we're in Level 2, we'll presumably go back into alert Level 3, depending on where those cases are coming from. We'll continue to have cases coming in from overseas in small numbers (returning NZers, who go into mandatory quarantine if they are symptomatic, or managed self-isolation if they are not).
  • paperpudding
    paperpudding Posts: 9,281 Member
    yes that is why I am confident we do have it under control in South Australia - and most other australian states.

    Because very low number of new cases is not a reflection of less testing - in fact the opposite - as of a week ago, anyone with any flu like symptoms, no matter how mild, can be tested.

    Of course there is the possibility of infected people not getting tested - but given high numbers of tests being done and very low numbers of community transmission, that would seem unlikely.

    There is also possibility of false negatives - but I guess one has to have some trust in the system - and again very low numbers of community transmission would suggest it is extremely unlikely people are falsely testing negative - because if that were so, they would falsely be getting all clear to go to work etc - and we would see more flow on cases with no known contact cause.

    Social restrictions remain in place - but not as tight as some places, including eastern states of Australia.

    All incoming people , with very few exceptions, whether from overseas or interstate, must self quarnatine for 14 days.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    edited April 2020
    lkpducky wrote: »
    In Los Angeles County our numbers are going up (16,435 cases, 729 deaths) as our testing numbers are going up. At least more are being tested. We'll have to see day by day if the May 15 end of the stay in place will still be that date.

    Yeah, same here. The numbers were staying steady, but they have been trying to increase testing (eliminated the requirement of a dr referral and also and added a bunch more sites in apparently more affected areas (South and West sides of Chicago and East St. Louis)), and the numbers jumped again. It feels really discouraging although I know increased testing is the key to being able to open up more quickly.

    2049 more known cases today, and 98 more deaths. Totals (for IL) of 35,108 cases, and 1,565 deaths.

    Chicago is at 14,394 and 604, with Cook County as a whole at 24,546 and 1072.

    I find the differences between the numbers in various places (for example, NY and CA), even places following basically the same policies for the same amount of time intriguing, although no idea what the answers are.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,464 Member
    JustSomeEm wrote: »
    Some people are only counting people who have a positive test followed by 2 negative tests 2 weeks apart. In other words, no one has recovered yet.
    On the news last night, a man with leukemia went to his usual hospital with symptoms he had before and they treated before. The hospital was full so they redirected him to another hospital, where they promptly sent him straight to the corona ward. He got worse and worse and was found dead the next morning, untreated for leukemia. Was he counted as a Corona death? He died in the corona ward. (Just an interesting aside, the hospital didn’t notify the family he died. The family is still trying to get info from the hospital, but they won’t talk to the family.)
    That is incredibly sad and very concerning. There's a lot going on here - where did this happen, and do you have a link to the article? I'd like to read it if you do.

    Oops! Non-hodgens, not leukemia.
    Sorry, I don’t know how to post links, but maybe you can google it from this.

    0ffyvf660ll1.png
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 34,416 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    yes that is why I am confident we do have it under control in South Australia - and most other australian states.

    Because very low number of new cases is not a reflection of less testing - in fact the opposite - as of a week ago, anyone with any flu like symptoms, no matter how mild, can be tested.

    Of course there is the possibility of infected people not getting tested - but given high numbers of tests being done and very low numbers of community transmission, that would seem unlikely.

    There is also possibility of false negatives - but I guess one has to have some trust in the system - and again very low numbers of community transmission would suggest it is extremely unlikely people are falsely testing negative - because if that were so, they would falsely be getting all clear to go to work etc - and we would see more flow on cases with no known contact cause.

    Social restrictions remain in place - but not as tight as some places, including eastern states of Australia.

    All incoming people , with very few exceptions, whether from overseas or interstate, must self quarnatine for 14 days.

    Yep, same for NZ - so much as a sniffle and you can get tested, and that will continue as restrictions lift. People are being encouraged to contact their GP or Healthline as soon as they feel unwell, because maintaining control requires identifying and isolating any new cases plus close contacts as quickly as possible.

    We had a bit of a dip in numbers being tested (Australia did too), simply because there are fewer respiratory illnesses circulating due to the restrictions in place. We haven't actually had any days where full testing capacity was reached (day before yesterday was the highest, with 5289 tests processed, only 6 came back positive).

    Here, we have a category of 'probable', for where a test result has come back negative, but all clinical signs point to COVID-19. So of our 1451 total, 338 are probable cases.

    Wait. Are you saying they think the testing is not catching the Covid 19 cases, or....what does this mean? I mean, the virus is sequenced..it is or it isn't - pretty cut and dry. I don't get that "probable."

    Of course, "probably" a lot of not-tested infected people and a lot who had it and recovered and never got tested.

    Lots of ways this can be an majorly imperfect test system because people and chaos.

  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    Apparently there are a number of false negatives. Ross Douthat (the conservative NYT columnist) thinks he, his wife, and his son all had it, but Ross's test came back negative and his son's inconclusive, and at that point they were on the mend so did not retest. He was discussing the false negative issue on one of the episodes of his podcast (The Argument).
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    edited April 2020
    JustSomeEm wrote: »
    Some people are only counting people who have a positive test followed by 2 negative tests 2 weeks apart. In other words, no one has recovered yet.
    On the news last night, a man with leukemia went to his usual hospital with symptoms he had before and they treated before. The hospital was full so they redirected him to another hospital, where they promptly sent him straight to the corona ward. He got worse and worse and was found dead the next morning, untreated for leukemia. Was he counted as a Corona death? He died in the corona ward. (Just an interesting aside, the hospital didn’t notify the family he died. The family is still trying to get info from the hospital, but they won’t talk to the family.)
    That is incredibly sad and very concerning. There's a lot going on here - where did this happen, and do you have a link to the article? I'd like to read it if you do.

    Oops! Non-hodgens, not leukemia.
    Sorry, I don’t know how to post links, but maybe you can google it from this.

    0ffyvf660ll1.png

    Here's a link: https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/he-did-not-deserve-to-die-like-he-did-cancer-patient-dies-in-covid-19-unit-while-family-waits-on-test/

    Looks like this was a month ago, not counted as COVID. Probably not a death related to COVID either, but sad for the family.