Coronavirus prep
Replies
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Diatonic12 wrote: »@JustSomeEm
Okay, I just shared this with the folks and first thing came to their minds about Covid toes, sounds like symptoms of pneumonic plague.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/plague/symptoms-causes/syc-20351291
Then we took a trip down memory lane and they reminded me of a childhood friend and mother who died of the plague. They had rabbits/fleas and they carried it to the family. Their toes turned black/blue and their entire bodies before they died. It was a sad day.
@Diatonic12 - From your link, it looks like Septicemic plague (not bubonic) caused extremities blackened skin issues, but yikes! I'd never actually looked at the list of symptoms for any plague before. Thankfully COVID is a virus that might, maybe, possibly cause circulation issues, while the Plague was a bacteria that was waaaaaaay worse. Lets hope the symptoms for COVID19 don't end up including things like bleeding from orifices.
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@JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
Thanks much.
https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe
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Diatonic12 wrote: »@JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
Thanks much.
https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe
I believe you - I was just commenting on the different types of plague in your link, and being thankful that COVID19 isn't as bad as any of them.
Your link really put into perspective for me that things could be worse. I've been too focused on the bad when there is plenty of 'not as bad as it could be'.
Really tactless questions: When did your friend and their mother pass (meaning how long ago was it), and where were you? I'm very sorry that happened to you.1 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »Our governor is catching quite a bit of flack for extending to May 15 before starting to roll out a soft opening. IMO, this is prudent and follows the guidelines set out by the White House to have 14 days of declining numbers before phasing in openings.
State wide, our curve has flattened, but we're not seeing overall declining numbers yet. There are currently two counties that are seeing a substantial surge in cases and a third that is still seeing increases, but starting to flatten out. Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, and Taos County are currently seeing new cases and hospitalizations on the decline, but that has only been the last few days.
To me, this is all very promising and I'm optimistic that we will indeed begin to re-open after May 15th. Another thing that a lot of people don't seem to get is that we can't just open the flood gates...it's not going to go back to January on May 16...it will be quite a long time before things return to that kind of operation, but a lot of people here responding on social media seem to think "opening" is going to be just flipping a switch to full operations overnight even though the governor has repeatedly said that this will all happen in phases.
The bolded seems sensible on the technical front, maybe less so politically (not saying that politics should drive!).
I can see the need to release opening-up rules somewhat before the actual event, to give businesses a little more planning/readiness time (something many haven't gotten with the steady march of quickly-imposed restrictions, in some regions).
But waiting as long as practical gives the opening-up rules the benefit of planning task forces having observed the states/countries that have opened up earlier, and maybe adjusting plans based on others' good or bad ideas.
From what I understand, the next few weeks will be spent in talks with the business community about what businesses will be allowed to re-open in phase I and what the rules and restrictions will be. This probably won't be communicated to the general public until there is more certainty that we will actually start opening things up a bit.2 -
@JustSomeEm I'd like to say but I'm from such a small community. Everyone literally freaked out when it happened back then. People wondered if it was catchy. In some ways we've advanced but lately I've been thinking we've really been caught flat-footed with this thing. There's more I'd like to say but you know, six degrees of separation is more like one or two these days.
The half has not been told.
I'm always grateful for the give-N-take discussion. My relatives are scared. It's on their faces. The outbreak has not reached us but with the influx and steady stream of tourists from all over the country, it's going to hit. We don't have the facilities to handle any of this. They're swarming this place looking for shelter in a storm but they're bringing it here. It gives me a really big pinch.7 -
There was a protest here, wanting things to open sooner. 10 people showed up. There’s supposed to be an online protest tomorrow, wanting the governor to keep things locked down longer. Do you think it will be better attended, since people won’t actually have to get up and get dressed. Lol. It will be interesting to see.4
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I had an antibody test for it and tested negative (assuming the test is accurate or has any meaning at all). I was wondering if either the horrible flu or the horrible cold I'd had in February and March were coronavirus and no, they weren't. I travel a lot and work with the public so I've been exposed to a lot of diseases and germs.
Admittedly, I don't think anybody knows how accurate the antibody test is and if it is accurate, if the existence of antibodies confers any sort of immunity at all, but I did want the information for information's sake.
I think if I'd tested positive, I probably would have continued my "Safer at Home" lockdown, and continued wearing mask and gloves to the store and washing my hands repeatedly, but I probably would stop disinfecting my groceries and wearing a mask to exercise outside. And I would worry less when it's time to go back to work.9 -
Some good news in our county. Our death toll jumped on Monday from 0 to 10. Today it dropped back to 1. It turns out they were counting possible cases as actual. After objections from the Coroner,the number was dropped.0
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Unfortunately there are continued questions about the accuracy of the coronavirus antibodies test, but if it is generally accurate, this new study showing 21% of people in NYC infected already and 14% in NYS is positive, as it certainly reduces the death rate stats a lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html
Of course the problem remains that if it spreads so much and if the antibodies don't prevent subsequent infection, it's going to be a lot of people dead anyway (and many not dead but very sick and possibly with ongoing effects, including lung damage).
Also, the LA study increased infection rates a bunch (to the extent that if NYC had increased that much it would have meant everyone in NYC had it, apparently), but it was still only at 4.5%, which likely means most of the country still has pretty low infection rates (outside of certain kinds of group living situations like nursing homes and jails and prisons).1 -
Interesting analysis showing likely persistent undercounting of corona deaths:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
Here, our stay at home order has been extended from 4/30 to 5/30, but with modifications that loosen the restrictions somewhat in some cases, but also will require masks as of 5/1. The hope is that warmer weather is going to help too.2 -
Petechiae and purpura are pretty common in severe infections - this sounds a lot like purpura to me, which is basically blood blisters under the skin on the extremities. Purpura is usually caused by the failure of blood to clot, while it sounds like they think the covid issues are caused by excess clotting. In any case, when an infection is in your bloodstream messing up your coagulation, the extremities are usually where you see it first.Diatonic12 wrote: »@JustSomeEm
Okay, I just shared this with the folks and first thing came to their minds about Covid toes, sounds like symptoms of pneumonic plague.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/plague/symptoms-causes/syc-20351291
Then we took a trip down memory lane and they reminded me of a childhood friend and mother who died of the plague. They had rabbits/fleas and they carried it to the family. Their toes turned black/blue and their entire bodies before they died. It was a sad day.
That’s interesting and sad about the childhood friend. Not too many people today have had the experience of knowing someone with plague.
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corinasue1143 wrote: »There was a protest here, wanting things to open sooner. 10 people showed up. There’s supposed to be an online protest tomorrow, wanting the governor to keep things locked down longer. Do you think it will be better attended, since people won’t actually have to get up and get dressed. Lol. It will be interesting to see.
Glad it was only 10. At least it made social distancing more practical.2 -
Lol0
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Cordera, he just had a leg amputated and is currently in a coma, due to Covid-19. When he first got sick, he tested negative twice for Covid and on the 3rd try, tested positive. That's too many false negatives.
Had to have AAA jump my car yesterday and I asked the guy who came, if all his family/friends were staying healthy. He said 'oh we all had this back in December, we all got sick then and the media is over-playing all of this.'
Last thought but certainly not least.....I'm now afraid too many desperate people will be self-administering antiseptic solutions, hoping to kill any possible virus. People are so afraid now, so willing to try any possible thing.
We all need to remain cautious and smart about this. I saw pictures on MSN this a.m. of a firefighter's 5 month old baby girl who died from Covid. So much sadness. I know babies die from the flu every year. It doesn't matter to me; it's all sad and if any way can be seen to prevent a death or a million, I'll cautiously and intelligently do it.3 -
cmriverside wrote: »I'm not happy about the fact we are opening recreation first (according to the Washington governor.)
Makes no sense. People are going to flock to parks and beaches and playgrounds.
I guess there's some reasoning behind it - not sure what. If you're going to let people get together in recreational ways, let them work. Much more important in my view.
I know I know, no one asked me.
I think(JMO) that places and businesses do need to reopen BUT with restrictions applied. If you're going to flock the beach, you MUST keep your distance, wear a mask, etc., etc. People need to be doing these things, keeping businesses alive once again, but in a whole different way. It is certainly the epitome of a double-edged sword. 0 -
A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”
Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?21 -
Economic repercussions from this are going to be staggering for a very long time. It’s important to get people back to work, making sure to do so in the safest possible way. The health and safety of people needs to be a priority over anything else. Slowly returning only with safety precautions in place and observations and reporting of employees health daily. There cannot be too much caution.3
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SuzySunshine99 wrote: »A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”
Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?
I agree with you.
This is a very common thing, for people not to grasp that taking action looks like no result. Because we'll never know how it would have gone the other way. And it's very, very, so easy to argue that what we did didn't change the result, because we'll never know what would have happened otherwise. But I agree, this was and is the right thing to do, and absolutely did reduce deaths.
Some people will always find ways to justify their beliefs, even if their justifications are nonsense.10 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”
Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?
Yes, I have seen people complaining online about restrictions in our area (Minnesota) because they don't know anyone who has been sick. I don't understand how they can't put two and two together.9 -
janejellyroll wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”
Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?
Yes, I have seen people complaining online about restrictions in our area (Minnesota) because they don't know anyone who has been sick. I don't understand how they can't put two and two together.
Agreed, we have "only" 19 confirmed cases in my county, but that's likely because the disease didn't reach us before stay-at-home orders were put in place due to our largest metros in the state being hit hard.5 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”
Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?
Absolutely, they are that clueless.
It was not (mostly) a deadly situation, but I keep trying to tell young'uns about the parallel with the year 2000 panic: Lots (lots) of doom talk in advance (for several years), talking about how the power grid could drop, banking system collapse, rioting and looting result, etc. There were conspiracy theorists and preppers filling up bunkers with shelf-stable food and ammo, at the fringe - no lie.
That didn't happen, because the people who needed to work their (bleeps) off - like me and my IT colleagues - beat the bejeepers out of ourselves working hard and steadily for several years, collaborating to test things across industries and supply chains, change or replace all the systems that might fail so they wouldn't, stay up all night at the end to monitor and fix anything missed, etc.
Aftermath: A little bit of surprise, a lot of popular "see, it wasn't really a crisis after all, it was just a big lie". I literally (and I mean "literally" literally, not figuratively!) foam at the mouth if someone my own age tries to say that, these days.
If some people don't see something, it's unpersuasive. And seeing "people not dying from a virus" or "hospitals not being overwhelmed in most places" is not "seeing something". Seeing nothing is unpersuasive.
Sometimes, it goes beyond that: For some people, if they don't suffer personally because of something, it's unpersuasive, even if they see other people suffer. (AIDS crisis, back in the 1980s, anyone? 🙄 Thousands dying awful deaths. General societal "meh" reaction, for way too long.)
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@AnnPT77 I don’t want to derail this thread but I personally would be very interested in hearing more about your experience with the “year 2000” panic. Don’t know if you’ve ever talked about this in depth on one of these boards, but if you were to post about it it would be very interesting! I was 4 at the time so have only vague memories of my mom sending me in to the basement to dip into her stockpile in the months after whatever should have happened, did not lol1
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MarieBuch10 wrote: »@AnnPT77 I don’t want to derail this thread but I personally would be very interested in hearing more about your experience with the “year 2000” panic. Don’t know if you’ve ever talked about this in depth on one of these boards, but if you were to post about it it would be very interesting! I was 4 at the time so have only vague memories of my mom sending me in to the basement to dip into her stockpile in the months after whatever should have happened, did not lol
If you have specific questions beyond this one post, feel free to send me a friend request and message me. I'd answer questions on this thread if they have any relevance to the current situation, but I'm not sure what you have in mind.
I'm not sure what else I can say without prompting by questions: What it amounts to is that literally thousands (probably tens or hundreds of thousands) of IT professionals spent quite literally millions of person-years and dollars, to make sure the technology-enabled parts of the world kept ticking along reliably. That effort was invisible to people outside that group (and maybe their families, because often long hours on the job!). The doom-predicting nonsense, on the other hand, was very visible to the average person.
When doom didn't occur, the average person was inclined to think there had been no reason for worry. In one sense, there hadn't been great reason to worry, because behind the scenes smart, hardworking people were doing what needed to be done. But it wasn't unusual for non-IT-connected people to think, afterwards, it was just that there had never been a problem in the first place.
The core of the problem was this: In the very early days of data systems, data storage (like disks) was very limited, and very, very expensive (hard to believe now, but true). Many systems started out on computer cards, literally paper cards, each of which could only handle 80 characters of data (half a pre-character-increase Tweet, approximately ). One method for minimizing need for storing data was to store dates with a 2 digit year, the US form being like YYMMDD. Few systems had data going back to pre-1900; those very few that did might have used YYYYMMDD instead.
The systems that needed to know relative timing of things (basically all of them, right down to every piece of networking hardware, for reasons I won't go into) sorted and compared on the 2 YY digits. At January 1, 2000, the date would've been 010101. Systems needed to know that that's later than 991231, but it would look like it was earlier if just compared/sorted numerically. Very bad consequences, if that happened. All the doom-y stuff.
Early system designers weren't idiots; they were working within the constraints of the technology at the time, never imagining that systems from the 1950s would be kept around until after 1999, patched with the technology equivalent of baling twine and duct tape to keep running.
But businesses don't like to spend money on stuff that's "already working fine" unless they must, so data storage was conserved stingily early on, and the old card systems were eventually put onto disks without the very-expensive redesign and rebuilding to modernize them. They were just transferred over as is, onto a new medium. (Many people don't realize that a normal business system represent the same scale of person-hours to create and update as it takes to design, build and remodel giant office buildings, because the systems are invisible, but they can see the buildings.)
Everything had to be revamped to use YYYYMMDD. It required changes in pretty much every program everywhere, except for a few more recently-programmed systems, then retesting all the interconnections of programs (including the newer ones) globally to make sure they still played together nicely. Took absurd amounts of time. But it worked. Doom was averted, and disbelievers (who in their guts knew better than experts, just as they do today) sprouted like Spring dandelions.
So, that's my insider version of the story. On this thread, if there are questions that seem quite related to the current crisis, I'll answer them. Otherwise, please friend me (so PM is more likely to work) and PM me.
One relevant aside: The things we're hearing lately, about the unemployment compensation systems failing under overload, and a call for programmers who know the antique COBOL programming language in order to help fix them, is an example of a consequence of organizations being willing to limp along with old systems as long as they keep working, rather than spending lotsa money to do pretty much the same thing, but in a more catastrophe-resistant way. Organizations prefer to spend money on systems that will deliver new services or features; they don't want to spend on back-office stuff that appears from the executive suite (or legislature, or average taxpayer perspective) to be working just fine. If these were buildings, folks would see them crumbling. Systems are invisible.18 -
"Fun" fact about Y2K: due to bureaucracy and it's occasional lack of agility, updates to government documents on dealing with the potential bug were still being updated in 2017.6
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“Many of you continue to disregard the safety of our elders by not adhering to these measures,” he said. “Your grandparents love you unconditionally, and depend on the love you have for them to conduct yourself and behave in a proper way."
“It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that the Northern Arapaho tribe confirms the deaths of four of our own who tested positive for coronavirus,” Lee Spoonhunter said. “Two of the four were precious elders who were fortunate to have reached their fourth ridge of life."
I drove by the grocery store and the parking lot was loaded with in-state and out-of-state vehicles. I found it repulsive. There's no social distancing. It's been a free-for-all situation since the beginning. We don't have a stay at home order. Hair salons and gyms will be opening back up. If you think about it, the same plastic capes are used, arm rests aren't wiped down. I can't tell you how many use the same pair of scissors, same combs and brushes on customer after customer. I've been going to these places for years and haven't witnessed any of their tools changed out between customers while I've been waiting.
This is just one small item swimming in the sharky waters. Manicures. Pedicures. No cures. I know some want to jump right back in for the economy but I don't think rushing is worth our safety and comfort.
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MarieBuch10 wrote: »@AnnPT77 I don’t want to derail this thread but I personally would be very interested in hearing more about your experience with the “year 2000” panic. Don’t know if you’ve ever talked about this in depth on one of these boards, but if you were to post about it it would be very interesting! I was 4 at the time so have only vague memories of my mom sending me in to the basement to dip into her stockpile in the months after whatever should have happened, did not lol
One relevant aside: The things we're hearing lately, about the unemployment compensation systems failing under overload, and a call for programmers who know the antique COBOL programming language in order to help fix them, is an example of a consequence of organizations being willing to limp along with old systems as long as they keep working, rather than spending lotsa money to do pretty much the same thing, but in a more catastrophe-resistant way. Organizations prefer to spend money on systems that will deliver new services or features; they don't want to spend on back-office stuff that appears from the executive suite (or legislature, or average taxpayer perspective) to be working just fine. If these were buildings, folks would see them crumbling. Systems are invisible.
Nice summary. I worked doing financial support for the IT area of a multi-national corporation. Our IT budget was close to $1B a year. Like most companies we had a lot of COBOL. I believe even now COBOL still processes 70-80% of business related transactions in the world.
Seems I read at one time it would cost somewhere north of 2 TRILLION dollars to replace all the COBOL programs worldwide. It's not sexy but someone who can program/fix COBOL can make bank.
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Theoldguy1 wrote: »MarieBuch10 wrote: »@AnnPT77 I don’t want to derail this thread but I personally would be very interested in hearing more about your experience with the “year 2000” panic. Don’t know if you’ve ever talked about this in depth on one of these boards, but if you were to post about it it would be very interesting! I was 4 at the time so have only vague memories of my mom sending me in to the basement to dip into her stockpile in the months after whatever should have happened, did not lol
One relevant aside: The things we're hearing lately, about the unemployment compensation systems failing under overload, and a call for programmers who know the antique COBOL programming language in order to help fix them, is an example of a consequence of organizations being willing to limp along with old systems as long as they keep working, rather than spending lotsa money to do pretty much the same thing, but in a more catastrophe-resistant way. Organizations prefer to spend money on systems that will deliver new services or features; they don't want to spend on back-office stuff that appears from the executive suite (or legislature, or average taxpayer perspective) to be working just fine. If these were buildings, folks would see them crumbling. Systems are invisible.
Nice summary. I worked doing financial support for the IT area of a multi-national corporation. Our IT budget was close to $1B a year. Like most companies we had a lot of COBOL. I believe even now COBOL still processes 70-80% of business related transactions in the world.
Seems I read at one time it would cost somewhere north of 2 TRILLION dollars to replace all the COBOL programs worldwide. It's not sexy but someone who can program/fix COBOL can make bank.
I was thinking about learning Python (I work in corporate financial management). But maybe COBOL is the way to go after all. 🤔1 -
One relevant aside: The things we're hearing lately, about the unemployment compensation systems failing under overload, and a call for programmers who know the antique COBOL programming language in order to help fix them, is an example of a consequence of organizations being willing to limp along with old systems as long as they keep working, rather than spending lotsa money to do pretty much the same thing, but in a more catastrophe-resistant way. Organizations prefer to spend money on systems that will deliver new services or features; they don't want to spend on back-office stuff that appears from the executive suite (or legislature, or average taxpayer perspective) to be working just fine. If these were buildings, folks would see them crumbling. Systems are invisible.
I think that’s valid, but only half the story. The other half has to do with software companies forcing regular upgrades on us in order to extort more money, and everyone getting used to hearing, “oh, it’s not working today, we ‘upgraded’ and now that feature isn’t working anymore.” End users are repeatedly told to stay up to date to avoid disaster, but then have the actual experience of the latest update bricking their expensive phone, making their printer driver incompatible etc. I personally have three scanners and I can’t count how many printers made by major manufacturers sitting in my attic which had to be replaced because the manufacturer never made a compatible driver when the operating system was upgraded. It’s not surprising that most businesses don’t see the need to throw out perfectly good hardware which worked yesterday because of a software upgrade. Not to mention replacing thousands of dollars worth of plugins, or tracking down new plugins to do the same thing, when a new version of my rendering software comes out. I work with a lot of guys whose philosophy is, “Don’t touch anything, it may be old but it’s working right now.”3 -
My mom just got tested. We should have results by Monday. I'm interested to see what they are.11
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If some people don't see something, it's unpersuasive. And seeing "people not dying from a virus" or "hospitals not being overwhelmed in most places" is not "seeing something". Seeing nothing is unpersuasive.
Ann I haven't quoted your whole post and its interesting paralells to Covid 19 crisis - but yes I can see exactly this same phenomenon in area in which I work
Vaccinations: what can be seen: minor side effects like sore arm, redness, swelling, muscle ache
What can't be seen; no case of polio, tetanus, measles etc
Along with, like Covid restrictions, some The government cant tell me what to do, its not a nanny state, type thinking
So I won't get my children/myself vaccinated because I had a really sore arm afterwards and the government cant tell me what to do and and nobody gets polio/tetanus/measles these days anyway
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