Coronavirus prep

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  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    yes that is why I am confident we do have it under control in South Australia - and most other australian states.

    Because very low number of new cases is not a reflection of less testing - in fact the opposite - as of a week ago, anyone with any flu like symptoms, no matter how mild, can be tested.

    Of course there is the possibility of infected people not getting tested - but given high numbers of tests being done and very low numbers of community transmission, that would seem unlikely.

    There is also possibility of false negatives - but I guess one has to have some trust in the system - and again very low numbers of community transmission would suggest it is extremely unlikely people are falsely testing negative - because if that were so, they would falsely be getting all clear to go to work etc - and we would see more flow on cases with no known contact cause.

    Social restrictions remain in place - but not as tight as some places, including eastern states of Australia.

    All incoming people , with very few exceptions, whether from overseas or interstate, must self quarnatine for 14 days.

    Yep, same for NZ - so much as a sniffle and you can get tested, and that will continue as restrictions lift. People are being encouraged to contact their GP or Healthline as soon as they feel unwell, because maintaining control requires identifying and isolating any new cases plus close contacts as quickly as possible.

    We had a bit of a dip in numbers being tested (Australia did too), simply because there are fewer respiratory illnesses circulating due to the restrictions in place. We haven't actually had any days where full testing capacity was reached (day before yesterday was the highest, with 5289 tests processed, only 6 came back positive).

    Here, we have a category of 'probable', for where a test result has come back negative, but all clinical signs point to COVID-19. So of our 1451 total, 338 are probable cases.

    Wait. Are you saying they think the testing is not catching the Covid 19 cases, or....what does this mean? I mean, the virus is sequenced..it is or it isn't - pretty cut and dry. I don't get that "probable."

    Of course, "probably" a lot of not-tested infected people and a lot who had it and recovered and never got tested.

    Lots of ways this can be an majorly imperfect test system because people and chaos.

    IIRC there was an article somewhere about the portable testing equipment. I'll try to explain what I read, as I don't remember which news site I saw this on... I think it is the Roche portable tester that takes 5+ min. It can only be used to test 1 sample at a time and there were places with swabs waiting to be testes. They were keeping the swabs in some type of solution that is normally able to keep any viruses intact while waiting, but the solution causes a false negative in this case. The machine manufacturer put out an alert about this, so I guess they need to either wait to take a swab until the machine is available or keep the swab somewhere without anything added. After all, we know this virus survives on surfaces for a long time, so not sure why they needed to keep in any solution in the first place, but I admit I'm not exactly an expert in medical laboratory science.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    edited April 2020
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I didn't have a chance to look back through all the posts today but wondered if anyone highlighted the fact that here in CA (Santa Clara County) bases on autopsy results of people who died at home, we had a COVID-19 death on Feb 7 and another on Feb 17 as confirmed by the CDC. The virus was here earlier than we thought apparently.

    I just read a article on that. It spreading in CA by Jan seems somewhat likely at this point, and the first (2/7) death was someone who traveled a lot and worked for a company with people who traveled from Wuhan, as I understand it. So seems plausible.

    The first identified case of person to person spread in Chicago (a man whose wife traveled to Wuhan) was on Jan 30, so it being earlier in CA seems quite likely to me and I'm not sure why this is being presented as surprising.

    Unfortunately, the current discussion also seems to be that having it, especially a mild case, quite likely does not convey immunity.

    Both of the early deaths in CA that were just discovered by autopsy were people with no travel history, which means it had to have been community spread.

    ETA Source:
    Coronavirus Death in California Came Weeks Before First Known U.S. Death https://nyti.ms/3atiJvW
  • cmriverside
    cmriverside Posts: 34,817 Member
    Thanks for all the varied responses to my false negative question.


    It's a fascinating and frustrating thing, all of it. Regardless, the horse has left the barn. Or, herding cats, or whatever antropomorphic phrase applies here - and I thought of several!
  • snowflake954
    snowflake954 Posts: 8,399 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    ...I find the differences between the numbers in various places (for example, NY and CA), even places following basically the same policies for the same amount of time intriguing, although no idea what the answers are.

    My understanding is that CA started the mandatory social distancing policies several days before NY. Every day makes a huge difference in slowing things down. I think another big difference is that NY has a huge population all jammed up together in close quarters with a large share of that population using mass transit. CA has a huge number of people, but they are more spread out, and public transportation isn't used by the majority.

    Yes, I see those explanations, but the difference still seems huge. This article: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224944/coronavirus-hot-spots-covid-new-york-michigan-florida poses a number of reasons, including those, but it just doesn't seem entirely sufficient to me.

    And based on the new possible infection rate numbers for LA County (which are pretty iffy still from what I've read), it would be less so:

    "Skeptics have noted that the conclusions seem at odds with some basic math. In New York City, where more than 10,000 people, or about 0.1 percent of the population, have already died from Covid-19, this estimated fatality rate [based on the new LA numbers] would mean nearly everyone in the city has already been infected. That’s unlikely, since the number of new cases, and deaths, is still mounting, fast."

    From here: https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

    There's a new studies out of China that suggest that not only are there numerous strains of the virus, but that some of the mutations are more virulent: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

    "The study could have future implications on the treatment of coronavirus, as several different strains have been found throughout the world. The United States, which has the world's worst death toll at 42,897, and 799,515 overall cases, has been struck by different mutations. New York, which itself had the worst death rate in the US, and the eastern coast show a strain of coronavirus similar to that found in Europe, whereas the western US has shown similarities with strains found in China."

    I'm not sure I believe that (more confirmation necessary), but I do wonder.

    On CA shutting down early, the Vox piece says: "The Bay Area issued the first shelter-in-place order in the US on March 16, and California issued a statewide stay-at-home order three days later — while New York didn’t impose its own mandate until March 22."

    However, Chicago (and IL as a whole) imposed our shelter-in-place at the same time as CA, and yet the outbreak here seems much worse, even though it also seems likely it was spreading in CA earlier.

    CA has had 35,396 positive cases, and 1354 deaths vs. 35,108 cases and 1565 deaths in IL, even though CA has 3 times the population of IL. (CA has tested more, but not if you adjust for it having more than 3x the population.)

    Maybe weather is part of it (FL has had a lot of cases, but given many other factors, seems like more would have been expected), and Chicago relies more on public transportation, but it still seems odd.

    I'm wondering about climate a bit because of the big difference in number of cases between North and South Italy.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,887 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I didn't have a chance to look back through all the posts today but wondered if anyone highlighted the fact that here in CA (Santa Clara County) bases on autopsy results of people who died at home, we had a COVID-19 death on Feb 7 and another on Feb 17 as confirmed by the CDC. The virus was here earlier than we thought apparently.

    I just read a article on that. It spreading in CA by Jan seems somewhat likely at this point, and the first (2/7) death was someone who traveled a lot and worked for a company with people who traveled from Wuhan, as I understand it. So seems plausible.

    The first identified case of person to person spread in Chicago (a man whose wife traveled to Wuhan) was on Jan 30, so it being earlier in CA seems quite likely to me and I'm not sure why this is being presented as surprising.

    Unfortunately, the current discussion also seems to be that having it, especially a mild case, quite likely does not convey immunity.

    Both of the early deaths in CA that were just discovered by autopsy were people with no travel history, which means it had to have been community spread.

    ETA Source:
    Coronavirus Death in California Came Weeks Before First Known U.S. Death https://nyti.ms/3atiJvW

    The earliest one, at least, worked for an international company, which makes it likely she could have come into contact with someone who had traveled to China (or from China) in Jan. It doesn't necessarily mean it was widespread in CA in Jan (although I've always thought that was possible, even likely, given the lag between catching it and symptoms and the amount of travel between China and CA and work-related connections).

    From the NYT piece I referenced before (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/santa-clara-county-coronavirus-death.html):

    "A longtime friend said that on Feb. 2, Ms. Dowd had complained of flulike symptoms. Four days later, he said, she was working from home, still feeling under the weather. Her daughter came home and found her collapsed at the breakfast bar in her kitchen, according to the friend, who asked not to be identified.

    Family members said they initially had wondered if Ms. Dowd had been suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Her work as a company auditor for her firm, they said, brought her into contact with employees from all over the world and involved frequent travel."
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,887 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    jenilla1 wrote: »
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    ...I find the differences between the numbers in various places (for example, NY and CA), even places following basically the same policies for the same amount of time intriguing, although no idea what the answers are.

    My understanding is that CA started the mandatory social distancing policies several days before NY. Every day makes a huge difference in slowing things down. I think another big difference is that NY has a huge population all jammed up together in close quarters with a large share of that population using mass transit. CA has a huge number of people, but they are more spread out, and public transportation isn't used by the majority.

    Yes, I see those explanations, but the difference still seems huge. This article: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224944/coronavirus-hot-spots-covid-new-york-michigan-florida poses a number of reasons, including those, but it just doesn't seem entirely sufficient to me.

    And based on the new possible infection rate numbers for LA County (which are pretty iffy still from what I've read), it would be less so:

    "Skeptics have noted that the conclusions seem at odds with some basic math. In New York City, where more than 10,000 people, or about 0.1 percent of the population, have already died from Covid-19, this estimated fatality rate [based on the new LA numbers] would mean nearly everyone in the city has already been infected. That’s unlikely, since the number of new cases, and deaths, is still mounting, fast."

    From here: https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

    There's a new studies out of China that suggest that not only are there numerous strains of the virus, but that some of the mutations are more virulent: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

    "The study could have future implications on the treatment of coronavirus, as several different strains have been found throughout the world. The United States, which has the world's worst death toll at 42,897, and 799,515 overall cases, has been struck by different mutations. New York, which itself had the worst death rate in the US, and the eastern coast show a strain of coronavirus similar to that found in Europe, whereas the western US has shown similarities with strains found in China."

    I'm not sure I believe that (more confirmation necessary), but I do wonder.

    On CA shutting down early, the Vox piece says: "The Bay Area issued the first shelter-in-place order in the US on March 16, and California issued a statewide stay-at-home order three days later — while New York didn’t impose its own mandate until March 22."

    However, Chicago (and IL as a whole) imposed our shelter-in-place at the same time as CA, and yet the outbreak here seems much worse, even though it also seems likely it was spreading in CA earlier.

    CA has had 35,396 positive cases, and 1354 deaths vs. 35,108 cases and 1565 deaths in IL, even though CA has 3 times the population of IL. (CA has tested more, but not if you adjust for it having more than 3x the population.)

    Maybe weather is part of it (FL has had a lot of cases, but given many other factors, seems like more would have been expected), and Chicago relies more on public transportation, but it still seems odd.

    I'm wondering about climate a bit because of the big difference in number of cases between North and South Italy.

    Yes, that also supports that theory.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,460 Member
    @justsomeem and those in the medical field. Do you think the cause of painful toes could possibly be (at least partially ) poor circulation and the nerve pain and tingling it causes. My circulation is not the best, I have post shingles pain, and anything that causes me to go to bed a day or two means pain in the toes on the shingles side. Just a thought.
  • jseams1234
    jseams1234 Posts: 1,219 Member
    edited April 2020
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    Apparently there are a number of false negatives. Ross Douthat (the conservative NYT columnist) thinks he, his wife, and his son all had it, but Ross's test came back negative and his son's inconclusive, and at that point they were on the mend so did not retest. He was discussing the false negative issue on one of the episodes of his podcast (The Argument).

    Actual REAL false negatives or someone like Douthat insisting that he is right and the test is wrong. I mean, that's pretty arrogant.





    Kind of like me insisting me and my cat had it even though we didn't get tested? :lol:

    I got sick in February - I live in the Bay Area and pretty close to Santa Clara. My job requires me to interact with foreign researchers - many of them Chinese nationals who travel here directly to consult with me. Anyhow, I got pretty darned sick and missed more than week of work. My wife caught it too and also spent a couple of weeks out. Seemed like influenza to me, even though I had my vaccination - constant mid grade fever for an entire week. My wifes version progressed into her lungs and she was hacking for quite a while and ended up with both a sinus infection and bronchitis from it. Took her about a month to stop hacking and took me just about as long to feel normal and not out of breath doing normal activities.

    Was it Covid-19? Considering the testing Stanford has been doing it is more than a small possibility. However, it could of just been the Flu. People are forgetting that the regular rhinovirus and influenza are still out there and people are still just as likely to catch one of those.
  • JRsLateInLifeMom
    JRsLateInLifeMom Posts: 2,275 Member
    Coriandue- That’s what I was wondering if it could be mini blood clots since the virus has caused heart issues . Also their saying foggy brain to trouble with emotions after. Might not be effecting things but causing blood clots all over leading to more noticeable issues.
  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,010 Member
    I'm not happy about the fact we are opening recreation first (according to the Washington governor.)

    Makes no sense. People are going to flock to parks and beaches and playgrounds.

    I guess there's some reasoning behind it - not sure what. If you're going to let people get together in recreational ways, let them work. Much more important in my view.

    I know I know, no one asked me.

    It also flies in the face of the argument that the important reason to get back to normal is economic. I agree, it makes no sense. But then, very little of this mess makes sense to me :confused:
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 37,225 Community Helper
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    Our governor is catching quite a bit of flack for extending to May 15 before starting to roll out a soft opening. IMO, this is prudent and follows the guidelines set out by the White House to have 14 days of declining numbers before phasing in openings.

    State wide, our curve has flattened, but we're not seeing overall declining numbers yet. There are currently two counties that are seeing a substantial surge in cases and a third that is still seeing increases, but starting to flatten out. Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, and Taos County are currently seeing new cases and hospitalizations on the decline, but that has only been the last few days.

    To me, this is all very promising and I'm optimistic that we will indeed begin to re-open after May 15th. Another thing that a lot of people don't seem to get is that we can't just open the flood gates...it's not going to go back to January on May 16...it will be quite a long time before things return to that kind of operation, but a lot of people here responding on social media seem to think "opening" is going to be just flipping a switch to full operations overnight even though the governor has repeatedly said that this will all happen in phases.

    The bolded seems sensible on the technical front, maybe less so politically (not saying that politics should drive!).

    I can see the need to release opening-up rules somewhat before the actual event, to give businesses a little more planning/readiness time (something many haven't gotten with the steady march of quickly-imposed restrictions, in some regions).

    But waiting as long as practical gives the opening-up rules the benefit of planning task forces having observed the states/countries that have opened up earlier, and maybe adjusting plans based on others' good or bad ideas.
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,313 MFP Moderator
    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    @JustSomeEm

    Okay, I just shared this with the folks and first thing came to their minds about Covid toes, sounds like symptoms of pneumonic plague.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/plague/symptoms-causes/syc-20351291


    Then we took a trip down memory lane and they reminded me of a childhood friend and mother who died of the plague. They had rabbits/fleas and they carried it to the family. Their toes turned black/blue and their entire bodies before they died. It was a sad day.

    @Diatonic12 - From your link, it looks like Septicemic plague (not bubonic) caused extremities blackened skin issues, but yikes! I'd never actually looked at the list of symptoms for any plague before. Thankfully COVID is a virus that might, maybe, possibly cause circulation issues, while the Plague was a bacteria that was waaaaaaay worse. Lets hope the symptoms for COVID19 don't end up including things like bleeding from orifices. :confused:

  • Diatonic12
    Diatonic12 Posts: 32,344 Member
    @JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
    Thanks much.
    https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe :'(
  • JustSomeEm
    JustSomeEm Posts: 20,313 MFP Moderator
    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    @JustSomeEm Back then, they did identify it as a case of bubonic plague. I was just a small kid but have never ever forgotten it. I look at their house every time I drive by. He had a chemistry set he let us play with and we watched him do experiments, wanted to be a scientist. I have two cousins who died of hantavirus. They were cleaning out old sheds after my aunt died. I'm not taking any of this lightly but we really do appreciate your links.
    Thanks much.
    https://torringtontelegram.com/article/coronavirus-blamed-in-death-of-four-members-of-northern-arapaho-tribe :'(

    I believe you - I was just commenting on the different types of plague in your link, and being thankful that COVID19 isn't as bad as any of them. :) Your link really put into perspective for me that things could be worse. I've been too focused on the bad when there is plenty of 'not as bad as it could be'.

    Really tactless questions: When did your friend and their mother pass (meaning how long ago was it), and where were you? I'm very sorry that happened to you.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    Our governor is catching quite a bit of flack for extending to May 15 before starting to roll out a soft opening. IMO, this is prudent and follows the guidelines set out by the White House to have 14 days of declining numbers before phasing in openings.

    State wide, our curve has flattened, but we're not seeing overall declining numbers yet. There are currently two counties that are seeing a substantial surge in cases and a third that is still seeing increases, but starting to flatten out. Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County, and Taos County are currently seeing new cases and hospitalizations on the decline, but that has only been the last few days.

    To me, this is all very promising and I'm optimistic that we will indeed begin to re-open after May 15th. Another thing that a lot of people don't seem to get is that we can't just open the flood gates...it's not going to go back to January on May 16...it will be quite a long time before things return to that kind of operation, but a lot of people here responding on social media seem to think "opening" is going to be just flipping a switch to full operations overnight even though the governor has repeatedly said that this will all happen in phases.

    The bolded seems sensible on the technical front, maybe less so politically (not saying that politics should drive!).

    I can see the need to release opening-up rules somewhat before the actual event, to give businesses a little more planning/readiness time (something many haven't gotten with the steady march of quickly-imposed restrictions, in some regions).

    But waiting as long as practical gives the opening-up rules the benefit of planning task forces having observed the states/countries that have opened up earlier, and maybe adjusting plans based on others' good or bad ideas.

    From what I understand, the next few weeks will be spent in talks with the business community about what businesses will be allowed to re-open in phase I and what the rules and restrictions will be. This probably won't be communicated to the general public until there is more certainty that we will actually start opening things up a bit.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,460 Member
    There was a protest here, wanting things to open sooner. 10 people showed up. There’s supposed to be an online protest tomorrow, wanting the governor to keep things locked down longer. Do you think it will be better attended, since people won’t actually have to get up and get dressed. Lol. It will be interesting to see.
  • spiriteagle99
    spiriteagle99 Posts: 3,819 Member
    Some good news in our county. Our death toll jumped on Monday from 0 to 10. Today it dropped back to 1. It turns out they were counting possible cases as actual. After objections from the Coroner,the number was dropped.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,887 Member
    Unfortunately there are continued questions about the accuracy of the coronavirus antibodies test, but if it is generally accurate, this new study showing 21% of people in NYC infected already and 14% in NYS is positive, as it certainly reduces the death rate stats a lot.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

    Of course the problem remains that if it spreads so much and if the antibodies don't prevent subsequent infection, it's going to be a lot of people dead anyway (and many not dead but very sick and possibly with ongoing effects, including lung damage).

    Also, the LA study increased infection rates a bunch (to the extent that if NYC had increased that much it would have meant everyone in NYC had it, apparently), but it was still only at 4.5%, which likely means most of the country still has pretty low infection rates (outside of certain kinds of group living situations like nursing homes and jails and prisons).
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,887 Member
    Interesting analysis showing likely persistent undercounting of corona deaths:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

    Here, our stay at home order has been extended from 4/30 to 5/30, but with modifications that loosen the restrictions somewhat in some cases, but also will require masks as of 5/1. The hope is that warmer weather is going to help too.
  • rheddmobile
    rheddmobile Posts: 6,839 Member
    Diatonic12 wrote: »
    @JustSomeEm

    Okay, I just shared this with the folks and first thing came to their minds about Covid toes, sounds like symptoms of pneumonic plague.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/plague/symptoms-causes/syc-20351291


    Then we took a trip down memory lane and they reminded me of a childhood friend and mother who died of the plague. They had rabbits/fleas and they carried it to the family. Their toes turned black/blue and their entire bodies before they died. It was a sad day.
    Petechiae and purpura are pretty common in severe infections - this sounds a lot like purpura to me, which is basically blood blisters under the skin on the extremities. Purpura is usually caused by the failure of blood to clot, while it sounds like they think the covid issues are caused by excess clotting. In any case, when an infection is in your bloodstream messing up your coagulation, the extremities are usually where you see it first.

    That’s interesting and sad about the childhood friend. Not too many people today have had the experience of knowing someone with plague.
  • TonyB0588
    TonyB0588 Posts: 9,520 Member
    There was a protest here, wanting things to open sooner. 10 people showed up. There’s supposed to be an online protest tomorrow, wanting the governor to keep things locked down longer. Do you think it will be better attended, since people won’t actually have to get up and get dressed. Lol. It will be interesting to see.

    Glad it was only 10. At least it made social distancing more practical.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,460 Member
    Lol
  • ReenieHJ
    ReenieHJ Posts: 9,723 Member
    Cordera, he just had a leg amputated and is currently in a coma, due to Covid-19. When he first got sick, he tested negative twice for Covid and on the 3rd try, tested positive. That's too many false negatives. :(

    Had to have AAA jump my car yesterday and I asked the guy who came, if all his family/friends were staying healthy. He said 'oh we all had this back in December, we all got sick then and the media is over-playing all of this.' :(

    Last thought but certainly not least.....I'm now afraid too many desperate people will be self-administering antiseptic solutions, hoping to kill any possible virus. :(:( People are so afraid now, so willing to try any possible thing.

    We all need to remain cautious and smart about this. I saw pictures on MSN this a.m. of a firefighter's 5 month old baby girl who died from Covid. So much sadness. I know babies die from the flu every year. It doesn't matter to me; it's all sad and if any way can be seen to prevent a death or a million, I'll cautiously and intelligently do it.
  • ReenieHJ
    ReenieHJ Posts: 9,723 Member
    I'm not happy about the fact we are opening recreation first (according to the Washington governor.)

    Makes no sense. People are going to flock to parks and beaches and playgrounds.

    I guess there's some reasoning behind it - not sure what. If you're going to let people get together in recreational ways, let them work. Much more important in my view.

    I know I know, no one asked me.

    I think(JMO) that places and businesses do need to reopen BUT with restrictions applied. If you're going to flock the beach, you MUST keep your distance, wear a mask, etc., etc. People need to be doing these things, keeping businesses alive once again, but in a whole different way. It is certainly the epitome of a double-edged sword. :(