Coronavirus prep

1333334336338339498

Replies

  • lokihen
    lokihen Posts: 382 Member
    Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    lokihen wrote: »
    Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.

    What is this question in reference to on this thread? Little confused...

    I've seen kids held back at my kids' school...it's not terribly common, but wasn't common when I was growing up either. There is a pair of twins down the street from us and they are separated and not in the same classroom. If you're talking about holding a twin back a grade so they aren't in the same classes and that being the only reasons...you'd have a major lawsuit on your hands.
  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,496 Member
    SModa61 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.

    Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.

    The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.

    I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.

    (This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)

    I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)

    One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.

    The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.

    Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.

    The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.

    I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.

    No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.

    There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)

    There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.

    I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆

    I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.

    Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.

    As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.

    I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.

    There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻‍♀️

    I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.

    You’re not hallucinating, I was a child of the 70s too. We were supposed to put our heads under our desks to avoid a nuclear blast. That seems unlikely to work.

    Just developing flexibility so you could give your *kitten* a proper kiss goodbye.
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 3,098 Member
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    Catching up on the discussion.

    Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
    I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.

    @DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.

    @ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.

    @annpt77 Always said better than I can!

    The 15 day slow the spread initiative never came from the professionals and experts...it came from a politician.

    That was the surgeon general in the video. While not an epidemiologist, he is a doctor.
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 3,098 Member
    edited January 2021
    Theoldguy1 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.

    Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.

    The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.

    I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.

    (This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)

    I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)

    One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.

    The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.

    Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.

    The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.

    I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.

    No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.

    There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)

    There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.

    I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆

    I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.

    Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.

    As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.

    I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.

    There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻‍♀️

    I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.

    You’re not hallucinating, I was a child of the 70s too. We were supposed to put our heads under our desks to avoid a nuclear blast. That seems unlikely to work.

    Just developing flexibility so you could give your *kitten* a proper kiss goodbye.

    @theoldguy1 Sounds like what I vaguely remember. Funny thing is that I don't remember the training continuing into middle school and such. I am only remembering 6th grade when I would have been 10/11.

    edit:
    reading the posts in reverse
    @rheddmobile I LOVE the hostage idea your teacher had. I'm betting that was not the excuse of my 3rd grade teacher that taped my mouth shut though. :P
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 28,052 Member
    edited January 2021
    lokihen wrote: »
    Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    What is this question in reference to on this thread? Little confused...

    I've seen kids held back at my kids' school...it's not terribly common, but wasn't common when I was growing up either. There is a pair of twins down the street from us and they are separated and not in the same classroom. If you're talking about holding a twin back a grade so they aren't in the same classes and that being the only reasons...you'd have a major lawsuit on your hands.

    Probably this:
    kushiel1 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    Catching up on the discussion.

    Anyhow, I too had forgotten about the original 2 week action plan until @kushie1 had mentioned it. But I am surprised that @JaneJellyRoll didn’t have a flashback and remember the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” initiative. If anyone else wants a reminder of where we were at last March, here is the surgeon general: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK2ypT2xweA
    I occasionally appreciate going back and listening to what various people had to say in those early days and each iteration since.

    @DNARules I totally agree with your comment about people stating or believing they are compliant when they are not. I can make a list of a few people right off the bat. I wonder if I technically should be on the list, though in my estimation I am making sincere efforts to follow guidelines.

    @ahoy_m8 Good question about second doses. The plus is, if I heard correctly, the second doses are not exact on timing. They cannot be done early, but can be delayed.

    @annpt77 Always said better than I can!

    The plan wasn't followed though. Even at the time, it was obvious that many people were unwilling to comply, so I'm not sure why anyone would have thought it was just going to be two weeks.

    And what's the proposal here? Even if some people did genuinely think that some people giving an effort for two weeks would be enough, do we just throw up our hands and refuse to do anything else when it became obviously that community spread was happening across the country?

    What exactly are you asking for here?

    It sure sounded like it was going to be 2 weeks. The governor of my state repeatedly said 2 weeks to slow the spread - right up to the 2 week deadline and then he extended it, over and over and over again. Maybe you are right and that it would never have worked (though most people I know stayed home during that time, only going to the store and home and/or having things delivered. After the constant extensions in the spring, and the wishy-washing that many in state and local government had in regards to what was acceptable and what was not (for instance not condemning protesting, but not allowing a gym to open with a very limited capacity, either gathering is fine or it's not). So now of course it's going to be harder to convince people to continue complying. If they did what was asked and it was never enough and they kept moving the bar many people are rightfully frustrated.

    It's a virus, it will spread, it will mutate. I don't know what the answer is, but many people are reaching the end of their ropes with all these restrictions. I've been accused of not having a suggestion since I don't think these restrictions are sustainable and that's true. I just don't know. But all the people saying we have to keep doing this...what are your suggestions on the fact that kids are falling behind in school (especially those who lack parental supervision or ability to help and primarily low income kids), mental health issues including suicide attemtps are on the rise and the job losses that have been suffered are hurting people immensely. What do you think we can do to support these issues if you insist we must continue the restrictions?
  • kushiel1
    kushiel1 Posts: 96 Member
    lokihen wrote: »
    Are students never held back a grade anymore? It wasn't uncommon when I was young. I even remember a set of twins being split up that way just so they wouldn't be in the same classes (which seems very questionable now). Students in my graduating HS class were anywhere in the 17-19 age range and it wasn't a big deal.

    They do occasionally hold kids back but it doesn't seem to be as common these days.

    However in regards to holding kids back because they aren't learning enough during this pandemic would create a whole other can of worms not the least of which would be class sizes would explode in some areas or if we pressed the pause button and had everyone just repeat this grade then that would still put some kids at a disadvantage. Because those held back would be in the lower income areas and the higher income areas would do whatever necessary to not hold kids back. Plus that would result in other unintended consequences as kids end up older than they should be at the time of graduation.
  • kushiel1
    kushiel1 Posts: 96 Member
    I would also add that some kids are still learning SOME but not necessarily as much as they would in a normal year. Yes there's reasons for that, some good, some I don't agree with but it's still a problem. For instance my kids private school both last spring and this fall did not get as far in several of the AP classes as they normally would. This might not sound terrible, but it makes it harder for them to get a good score on the AP exam. Even this semester now that we are back in physical school 4 days a week with 1 online day a week with much smaller class sizes which can make it more difficult to get into a class you want to take they are going fewer hours because they said that with the pandemic the kids are too stressed and they want to improve their mental, emotional, and spiritual health (with more prayer services etc). Like fine...but now instead of 5 days of 7.5 hour days they go 4 6 hour days which means they have fewer classes each week and learn less. And my kids are obviously very fortunate as they go to a private school and have involved parents (though I can't help with most of their homework anymore lol), kids who are less fortunate are having FAR more issues.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    kushiel1 wrote: »
    Lining up for a repeat vaccine every 12 months would be no different to annual flu vaccine.

    I don't see that as a big deal.

    From what I've heard that's what it's going to be. May as well get used to it.

    It'll be a big deal if we have to wear masks and/or continue to social distance in addition to getting a vaccine every 6-12 months. And since we are still being told we need to do those things in addition to getting the vaccine I find this very likely.

    Plus how many people don't get the flu vaccine? Most of the people I know who work for companies who do not require it don't bother with it. Plus you can still get the flu even if you do take it since it's a virus and they mutate.

    In general we were told that a vaccine would get us back to "normal" but people are realizing that is not the case and is unlikely to be the case. Maybe we can't get back to "normal" ever again, but we aren't even going to be close to normal and for many this isn't acceptable.

    I currently don't have a plan to get the vaccine. I'm all for those who wanting it to get it, but for me there's too much unknown about it and I'd rather wait until we actually know the long term effects and efficiency before committing to it. Though as I work in healthcare, though not front lines, I have a feeling work will require it as they do the annual flu shot.

    To the person who posted about California - California has some of the strictest restrictions in the US so what's the explanation for why there is such a severe breakout there? Here in IN we seem to have gone through an outbreak, but when the pt's are questioned they all say they are compliant. Physicians are commenting on the fact that anecdotally they are not seeing non-compliant people getting Covid. My sister in law's mom was hospitalized for Covid after Thanksgiving - she social distanced, wore a mask when leaving the house, and washed her hands all the time but her son brought it home from work (they live together). And he's hugely into following all the restrictions so he wore his mask, washed his hands etc and so did the person who spread the Covid. If we are following the guidelines and still getting Covid which is going to make continuing to follow these guidelines very difficult for some people as why are they going through this and losing their livihood for nothing?

    We (currently) have to do these things in addition to getting vaccinated because there are still so many unvaccinated people. If you're right and people don't bother to take basic precautionary steps like getting vaccinated, then this may be more drawn out.

    If things aren't going "back to normal" due to low vaccination rates and that's unacceptable, what's the alternate plan being proposed? There are people who are complaining about things like wearing masks AND they're complaining about the unknowns of vaccinations. What's the alternative exactly?

    Just turn unknowns into knowns by testing and peer reviews.

    I don't know how this addresses people who insist that we get somehow get back to normal by ignoring the virus.

    I was talking about health care professionals holding terminal degrees and are board certified need medical vaccine data so they can start recommending the vaccines to their own patients with good medical knowledge.

    Case in point from this week. An area doctor told one his autoimmune patients he was concerned about them getting the vaccine because it hasn't been tested on that population to determine the risk of a flair.

    He suggested an antibody test since it was free. Just before my appointment yesterday this therapist got the test results that they tested positive for the antibodies. Both of us were excited because this is a weekly exposure risk for me.
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 3,098 Member
    @kshama2001 and @cwolfman13 I respect both your replies pointing out how the surgeon general is part of an administration and is therefore not apolitical. But, the other part of the original comment, which I also addressed, was how the 15 days to slow the spread did not "come from Fauci". As I quoted above, at the same approximate point in time, Fauci was stating "several weeks". In the overcall experience we have had, the 15 days of the surgeon general vs the several weeks stated by Fauci were equally wrong.