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Coronavirus prep

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  • mockchocmockchoc Member Posts: 6,407 Member Member Posts: 6,407 Member
    mockchoc wrote: »
    Yes I am sorry to read of situation in Victoria - and NSW sounds on same projectory.
    Hopefully nipped in bud better there

    Safe states like SA and WA need to keep tight borders and careful control of any exempted entrants.

    Things are almost normal here in SA and obviously we want to keep it that way.

    So do I so you are welcome to have the men kicking balls instead of us lol. Ok joking now but jez they can stay home. Make their millions down south somewhere.
    mockchoc wrote: »
    Yes I am sorry to read of situation in Victoria - and NSW sounds on same projectory.
    Hopefully nipped in bud better there

    Safe states like SA and WA need to keep tight borders and careful control of any exempted entrants.

    Things are almost normal here in SA and obviously we want to keep it that way.

    So do I so you are welcome to have the men kicking balls instead of us lol. Ok joking now but jez they can stay home. Make their millions down south somewhere.

    Haha. :D

    I'd love to get to an AFL match again, I usually go to a couple a year.

    Won't be happening this year with limited crowd numbers - and my team isn't worth watching this year anyway. :o;):*

    Hubby finally got to go to one but it didn't go the way he hoped.
  • mockchocmockchoc Member Posts: 6,407 Member Member Posts: 6,407 Member
    This is a scary story. Two deaths (one teacher and a teacher's brother) from a cluster apparently centered in a carefully socially distanced summer school remote team-teaching effort with three teachers in the same classroom, but keeping their distance and not sharing equipment. This is in what I would consider a smallish community (300 kids in the school district), facing a state mandate to bring kids back into the classroom in a few weeks. The superintendant is at a loss as to how to "prep" for that (tying this into the thread topic):

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/?arc404=true

    That was really sad. Poor guy. The story about what the shop worker was hard to read. My gosh the stress she is dealing with because of some customers. Just wow :(
  • GaleHawkinsGaleHawkins Member Posts: 7,938 Member Member Posts: 7,938 Member
    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    That’s a very selective thing to focus on. Sweden has about one and a half times the population of Tennessee, and many times the number of deaths. The most significant quote from the article is the last paragraph, pointing out that they have more deaths per capita than, hmm, pretty much every other nation which did have a lockdown.

    It makes sense that Sweden’s cases are dropping now, as their government belatedly freaks out and asks people to social distance, while the rest of Europe is rising as they open up.


    I think Sweden is interesting, and also not like the US in lots of important ways that make it incredibly possible that we would have had far worse results if we had done what they did, but I find the comparison of Sweden and IL interesting. (I think this is arguably more relevant than the comparison with TN, as it is unlikely that TN has peaked, and Sweden and IL likely have. On the other hand, Chicago got hit earlier than Sweden, so had less time to take precautions, and there are differences between the populations (such as areas of Chicago with serious poverty and other social problems, including distrust of authority and an apparent resistance to precautions based on a rumor that COVID was only a white problem, and those areas also happen to be the hardest hit areas).)

    Sweden has a population of 10.3 million, and an overall density of 60/sq mile.

    Its main big city, Stockholm, has a population (city center) of less than a million, with a density of about 11,000/sq mile. The metro area of Stockholm has a population of 1.37 m, with a density of 940/sq mile.

    Illinois has a population of 12.67 million, with an overall density of 232/sq mile.

    Its main big city, Chicago, has a population (city center) of 2.7 million, with an overall density of 11,850/sq mile. Getting stats for all of Chicago metro is complicated, as it is defined to go into IN and WI (and thus to be 9.5 million with a density of 1,300/sq mile), so I will use Cook County, which has a population of 5.15 million and density of 5,450/sq mile.

    Thus, looking at those numbers alone (pop and density), plus coronavirus hitting Chicago earlier, and before people knew to social distance (and they have been encouraging social distancing in Sweden throughout, even though they didn't lock down), plus the added issues in Chicago re poverty and related matters, you would expect Illinois to do worse. To date, it has:

    Sweden: 5,743 deaths [roughly, 56/million]. Illinois: 7,707 deaths (to date) [roughly, 60/million].

    BUT, Illinois shut down (to some extent, enforced/respected more in Cook Co than elsewhere). Our stay at home order was one of the earliest and Chicago schools shut down before NYC, and Archdiocese of Chicago schools shut down before CPS. Sweden has not shut down schools.

    Also, current deaths are extremely low (or even 0) in Sweden (perhaps similar to NYC metro where the shut down was way too late, deaths were worse than anywhere else in the US, but deaths are trending the same way). In Illinois, on the other hand, deaths have been more like 20 (and may well be picking up in the parts of the state outside of Chicago, although they remain too high in Chicago and Cook Co too).

    So does this show Illinois was right and Sweden was wrong? I am not sure. And you can't forget the basic differences between the US and Sweden (Sweden was confident their health care system would be able to manage, Sweden likely has a healthier overall population).

    Sweden is very interesting in that it is almost like a some what controlled human trial. I find it interesting that people have a lot of miss info about Sweden's COVID-19 containment efforts. I am starting to think Sweden may be looking OK but it will be Aug 2022 before we know with much validity what country(s) did the best and worse but currently they have only one clear peak and that was early on.

    Australia blows me away and gives some support for the Sweden approach at this point in time but as Sweden continues to openly state they failed to protect the senior living centers as they should have but in the USA with advanced warning we did the same thing.

    https://foxnews.com/world/australia-declares-state-of-disaster-in-victoria-coronavirus-cases-spike

    CORONAVIRUS Published 10 hours ago
    Australia declares 'State of Disaster' in Victoria after coronavirus cases spike continues
    The state recorded almost 700 new cases overnight from Saturday

    Just looking at the numbers it seems Australia does not have a problem compared to the USA (as of 2 Aug 2020) but as we all know today the virus does not spread much until it reaches critical mass but after it reaches critical mass (people with huge viral loads) Katie Bar The Door. Clearly little can be done to long term to "control" this virus but we have to keep trying but not necessary the same thing over and over.

    One thing that makes this pandemic so troublesome to the pro science folks is there is NO settled science when it comes to this virus and at best emotionalism is in control. When you have healthcare folks with terminal degrees saying opposite "facts" then clearly there is no settled science.

    https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html

    I think Sweden will be a key player in how pandemics can play out as time marches forward.



    edited August 3
  • ElioraFRElioraFR Member Posts: 61 Member Member Posts: 61 Member
    In as early as late January the Director of the WHO told us we had a chance to block the Pandemic by basically starving Sars Cov2 through lockdowns in order to prevent the disease from finding hosts for foddering and spreading SarsCov2.

    That would have been effective. We failed to do that. Mostly because we didn't lockdown long enough worldwide.

    Now we appear to be racing out toward the virus exposing ourselves to it in contradiction to basic survival instincts and have gone too far in our rebellion to render SarsCov2 extinct.

    Our only hope now is in worldwide vaccinations, provided that an effective and safe one is developed.

    No government is to blame. Blame belongs on the individuals who could not or would take the necessary measures to stop themselves from becoming fodder for the Covid 19 disease continuation. Shame on them.
  • ElioraFRElioraFR Member Posts: 61 Member Member Posts: 61 Member
    baconslave wrote: »
    ElioraFR wrote: »
    In as early as late January the Director of the WHO told us we had a chance to block the Pandemic by basically starving Sars Cov2 through lockdowns in order to prevent the disease from finding hosts for foddering and spreading SarsCov2.

    That would have been effective. We failed to do that. Mostly because we didn't lockdown long enough worldwide.

    Now we appear to be racing out toward the virus exposing ourselves to it in contradiction to basic survival instincts and have gone too far in our rebellion to render SarsCov2 extinct.

    Our only hope now is in worldwide vaccinations, provided that an effective and safe one is developed.

    No government is to blame. Blame belongs on the individuals who could not or would take the necessary measures to stop themselves from becoming fodder for the Covid 19 disease continuation. Shame on them.

    I don't think you meant to implicate shame on those who "could not." Like the essential workers and those deemed essential by the ridiculous too-soon push to get back to normal. Those folk should be given hazard pay. But def those who "won't," and those who are actively working against these necessary measures by perpetuating division and misinformation, they deserve disdain, IMO.

    Yes, essential workers can not isolate!
    We do need to know the reality about this disease. It has been told and we all know. Those who don't do their best to stop it ar at fault.

    People and some animals can be hosts for the Sarscov2.

    Getting rid of the bats would be a very good thing.

    Eradicate Ebola and other Sars virus strains by illiminating all the bats.
  • cwolfman13cwolfman13 Member Posts: 38,076 Member Member Posts: 38,076 Member
    hipari wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I live in AZ now, but I'm a huge (and hopeless) Bengals fan. NFL fans are hoping the season gets played and if you pay any attention to the draft, Joe Burrow is now a Bengal, so fans are even more excited about Cincinnati.

    I personally don't see an NFL season happening, as much as I'd like it to. They, like MLB and the NBA, are allowing players to "opt out" of the season. Here's the thing with football players. Be definition, O-linemen are obese. They have to be to be 300 plus pounds. It's part of the job.

    I'd be curious how other football fans feel. Though I'd love to see my team play this year, I have no desire for anyone to die for my entertainment.

    Every professional league and university athletic program is desperate for their seasons to start. Even if they can't host fans, they need the TV revenue. They are trying to preserve their profitability and their jobs, regardless of the risk to players and staff.

    So, far, the NBA and NHL have been successful in restarting their seasons ONLY because they are keeping players and staff in a quarantined "bubble" in host/hub cities. No travel, no going home, no outside food, no families, no women.

    MLB opted for allowing teams to play in their home ballparks, travel to other team's ballparks, stay at their own homes in their home cities. And now you see the Miami Marlins have a huge outbreak with at least 17 players testing positive. That was in the first week of play. This will happen to other baseball teams, and I will be very surprised if the MLB season plays through to its conclusion.

    The NFL will be in the same boat, since they are also allowing teams to play in their home facilities. They may have a slight advantage over MLB, with travel only once a week and far fewer games.

    I'm a sports fan, but I just don't see how any of this is going to work right now. As with many industries, shutting down is going to cost people their jobs, but at least they'll have their lives.

    As an NHL fan, I give them a slight edge in making it work as not only are they in a bubble but the two bubbles are in Canada.

    But as much as I will enjoy watching as many of any of these games as they can put out, I'm concerned by the sheer volume of testing supplies they are using for something that is just entertainment. Here in the US where there are still people waiting 7+ days for test results, it just doesn't seem responsible.

    The Cardinals just announced two players have tested positive, so here we go again. The worst case scenario for MLB is they don't even manage to play the season and several players or staff members see their careers ruined or even lose their lives. Not that completing the season would be worth it either, but you know what I mean.

    I keep waiting to hear the NFL cancel the season. Between the example baseball is setting, the fact you mentioned that there are obese football players, and the NFLs crappy history of taking care of their players long term, it just seems like a tragedy waiting to happen.

    At this point, the actual tests are pretty abundant...as for getting results back, that's really more of a lab thing. Places like urgent care facilities and pharmacies, etc do not have the ability to test in house, so those are sent to private labs. In New Mexico we have a number of testing places that are run by the DOH and Presbyterian hospital and those results usually come back within a day because they can do everything in house.

    Sports teams have the ability to do that lab work in house, so they really aren't taking away resources from the general public.

    If sports teams/leagues do have their own in-house labs and lab technicians, wouldn’t stopping all non-essential labwork* and reallocating those resources to covid testing be the most responsible thing to do? Probably good PR, too... From what I hear about the US situation, keeping any labs or technicians doing anything non-essential at this point sounds like taking resources away from the general public and common good, no matter who’s paying for it.

    *stopping all labwork that isn’t essential to players’ healthcare - at this point any and all performance-related testing, non-essential check-ups etc should be secondary to covid testing and care, I suppose.

    I was wrong about this...I was under the impression from several interviews I've heard that things were being done in house and that doesn't appear to be the case. The NBA and MLS anyway have contracted with BioReference Laboratories for their testing. Not sure about NFL and MLB. It does sound like they're getting preference over the general public given the large amount of money used to procure the contracts.

    BioReference has said that it isn't lagging on results for the general public, but the DOH in Florida just dumped them as their main provider as the state started seeing consistent delays with the general public. Both the NBA and MLS are in "bubbles" in Orlando. When the NFL gets going, they alone could be doing in the neighborhood of 24,000 tests per week.

    Another issue is that some states have laboratories at or over capacity for turning around results, while others have excess capacity...but testing isn't being diverted to those labs with excess capacity given that the overall response is on the state level, not the national level.
  • ElioraFRElioraFR Member Posts: 61 Member Member Posts: 61 Member
    The problem is that bats poo all over everything. There are a lot of pollinating imsects and animals, and the wind.
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