Coronavirus prep
Replies
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We went to Walmart this afternoon to pick up a prescription. The store was not as busy as usual and the shelves were mostly filled. Still no TP, of course. I think 50% of those in the store were over 70. Only one person was wearing a mask. We only have 5 cases in the County and none are hospitalized, so people may not be all that worried.2
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I am heading out tomorrow for the first time in almost 2 weeks - the local farm has increased their hours so I am hoping to get things like potatoes, greens, carrots, beans, etc. from there (the farmer is 83, hopefully he is practicing 6’ social distancing). Then to the grocery store for a few things to restock the fridge. Made some winner meals by branching out from my usual, but lunches for the kids are getting harder as the bread/tortillas dwindle.7
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bmeadows380 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Actually, they did quarantine and track the first cases, and put them in strict quarantine. A Chinese couple came down with COV19 in Rome in the very beginning. The entire hotel was tested and quarantined, as was the rest of their group that had proceeded on in their travels. That's why everyone thought it was under control, that and "it's just the flu". Suddenly the virus exploded in the North and snowballed fast. To be fair, no one yet knew how contagious this was and how fast it could spread. There is talk here that Germany had a case in November. So maybe they knew more before we did.
What I meant was that Germany was/is providing testing even for those without symptoms or anything to suggest they have the virus. South Korea has done much the same.
We're testing and quarantining and tracking as well...but we in the US aren't testing until someone is symptomatic.
And in some areas, not testing all those who are symptomatic, if tests are still in short supply - some areas seem still to be testing just severe symptoms.
That's the way it is still here in WV. I think when I looked at the state health department website this morning, we had tested just over 1,000 people. There are still all sorts of stories of people who have all the symptoms but aren't considered bad enough to test.
On another note, I noticed today on the John Hopkins map, which is now doing county level in the US, that there is a case cropped up less than an hour away from me and in the town in which my brother and sister in law and niece live, though for my brother's sanity, I truly hope my sister in law doesn't find out. She's already panicking as it is!
I was on a call today with my alderman and others who were volunteering to reach out (by phone) to those in the neighborhood (well, the ward, there are 50 wards in the city) who might need information/help. We are doing it with neighborhood email groups and FB and NextDoor too, but not everyone is on the internet, was the idea, especially some seniors who might easily be able to get out to get supplies, also. Someone asked if the alderman knew if anyone in the ward had it, and he mentioned that he did know that as of a week and a half ago there was a couple who was self-quarantining because they did, but he didn't know if they'd picked it up outside the city (like with the first few known cases here) or what. But then he said (paraphrased): "of course we have over 1100 cases in Chicago now, so I'd imagine we must."3 -
paperpudding wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »I can see that pet grooming is sort of essential - not the fancy stuff but basic cutting of dogs with fur that needs cutting.
Also landscaping - if we want people to stay home and do home things we would be contradicting that if garden shops were closed.
As well as basic repairs of hoses, fences etc. and basic equipment like weeding implements, buckets, etc.
Landscaping yes, and they can do it entirely outside, but I'm skeptical about pet grooming. But they could do it with complete social distancing.
some dogs dont shed hair and it needs to be cut (eg poodles) For the dog's health and comfort, not appearance.
Okay. I didn't know it was needed for heath or comfort.
It should be pretty easy for them to operate like my vet is, with curbside handoffs, even in places where they are open.
yes - apart from whether it is essential service or not - it is easy thing to do without human contact.
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JRsLateInLifeMom wrote: »Gale bet your right . Say Italy said they’ve stopped counting the dead
Because there are no universal rules there is next to no meaning to the data we are seeing. In Kentucky there is no testing unless you have a clear connection with another person who tested positive. If you have the high temp, etc you are told to not come in to test and just stay home until you do not show any signs for the corona virus. If you never need to be put in the hospital to keep from dying then you just drop off the face of the earth in that you just become a NON STAT.
The positive side is the Governor looks good because that is another case that never gets reported by the state of KY.8 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Russia only has 800 or so cases right now (only about 100 more cases than were on one cruise ship, the Diamond Princess) and 3 deaths, with a population nearly twice that of Germany (about 44,000 cases/267 deaths) and about three times that of South Korea (about 9,000 cases/139 deaths).
I just noticed that on the Johns Hopkins covid tracker site, and got curious how they were handling it. There's an interesting New Yorker piece speculating on whether they're just lucky or doing a great job.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-is-russias-coronavirus-case-count-so-low
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Russia only has 800 or so cases right now (only about 100 more cases than were on one cruise ship, the Diamond Princess) and 3 deaths, with a population nearly twice that of Germany (about 44,000 cases/267 deaths) and about three times that of South Korea (about 9,000 cases/139 deaths).
I just noticed that on the Johns Hopkins covid tracker site, and got curious how they were handling it. There's an interesting New Yorker piece speculating on whether they're just lucky or doing a great job.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-is-russias-coronavirus-case-count-so-low
Russia just went under Lockdown for a week starting yesterday. Putin spoke to the country, saying it was necessary.1 -
543k world 86k USA 24k world deaths as of now.
How sad is it I expect we will hit 1M world by Monday and 100k usa by end of today Friday2 -
This' just inhumane, to do to heroes. It's horrifically true, no good deed goes unpunished:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-nurses-face-eviction-housing-discrimination-from-scared-landlords?via=twitter_page2 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.
He's only your "peer" in the sense that neither of you are doctors, epidemiologists, or virologists. Is that why you feel qualified to evaluate his work?19 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »[
Russia only has 800 or so cases right now (only about 100 more cases than were on one cruise ship, the Diamond Princess) and 3 deaths, with a population nearly twice that of Germany (about 44,000 cases/267 deaths) and about three times that of South Korea (about 9,000 cases/139 deaths).
I just noticed that on the Johns Hopkins covid tracker site, and got curious how they were handling it. There's an interesting New Yorker piece speculating on whether they're just lucky or doing a great job.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-is-russias-coronavirus-case-count-so-low
Russia is lying. And/or not testing. He would not be locking down the country if they had this contained.16 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Russia only has 800 or so cases right now (only about 100 more cases than were on one cruise ship, the Diamond Princess) and 3 deaths, with a population nearly twice that of Germany (about 44,000 cases/267 deaths) and about three times that of South Korea (about 9,000 cases/139 deaths).
I just noticed that on the Johns Hopkins covid tracker site, and got curious how they were handling it. There's an interesting New Yorker piece speculating on whether they're just lucky or doing a great job.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-is-russias-coronavirus-case-count-so-low
Or cooking the books.
I assume that Russia has tighter controls on who goes in and out of the country, and is in a better position to force someone who arrives in the country to be tested and effectively quarantined. That, the state controlled media, and the vast sparsely populated areas would IMHO make it likely to be one of the last European countries to show outwardly obvious signs of clusters and overwhelm. Just my barely informed view from across the pond though!9 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.
Russia only has 800 or so cases right now (only about 100 more cases than were on one cruise ship, the Diamond Princess) and 3 deaths, with a population nearly twice that of Germany (about 44,000 cases/267 deaths) and about three times that of South Korea (about 9,000 cases/139 deaths).
I just noticed that on the Johns Hopkins covid tracker site, and got curious how they were handling it. There's an interesting New Yorker piece speculating on whether they're just lucky or doing a great job.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-is-russias-coronavirus-case-count-so-low
Or cooking the books.
I assume that Russia has tighter controls on who goes in and out of the country, and is in a better position to force someone who arrives in the country to be tested and effectively quarantined. That, the state controlled media, and the vast sparsely populated areas would IMHO make it likely to be one of the last European countries to show outwardly obvious signs of clusters and overwhelm. Just my barely informed view from across the pond though!
I'd be inclined to agree on the cooking the books. While I completely disagree with my best friend who thinks all the numbers are bogus and being ramped high to scare the world into crashing the economy (we have agreed to disagree on this one), I also don't believe all the numbers I see, such as the numbers given for Iran. I don't trust anything coming from a regime known to lie in the past and to oppress their people. (not meant to start a political discussion!) And as we've seen here in the US, it also depends on how well and how many people they are testing. WE know the actual number of cases in the US is already higher because of the lack of testing and the restraints that many states are putting on testing - such as only testing those with symptoms or, as in the case in WV, only testing those with symptoms that are life threatening.6 -
How did Germany anticipate this well enough to have a good supply of tests available? Availability of the tests seems to be a major problem, at least in the US.3
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missysippy930 wrote: »How did Germany anticipate this well enough to have a good supply of tests available? Availability of the tests seems to be a major problem, at least in the US.
Because Germany didn't have leadership that decided we didn't need to worry about this.26 -
missysippy930 wrote: »How did Germany anticipate this well enough to have a good supply of tests available? Availability of the tests seems to be a major problem, at least in the US.
THAT my dear is everyone's question. Or they are prepared for this. Most governments were caught with their pants down and no plan. I don't understand it because at least 15 years ago The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta was working on the possibility of an unstoppable virus. I read many articles on the topic and how they went into remote areas of the world to collect samples to try and stay ahead of any virus. What happened? I am dissapoint.
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missysippy930 wrote: »How did Germany anticipate this well enough to have a good supply of tests available? Availability of the tests seems to be a major problem, at least in the US.
Angela Merkel is a scientist. She accepted the WHO's help at first offer and listened to the science. She went into their house of parliment and told them that 60% to 70% of the population would get it. Reportedly, they sat in stunned silence and listened to her. Bottom line, they believed the science and weren't too arrogant to accept WHO's help.37 -
janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.
He's only your "peer" in the sense that neither of you are doctors, epidemiologists, or virologists. Is that why you feel qualified to evaluate his work?
Because your your first sentence is false the second one does not make sense.2 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.
He's only your "peer" in the sense that neither of you are doctors, epidemiologists, or virologists. Is that why you feel qualified to evaluate his work?
Because your your first sentence is false the second one does not make sense.
Neither one of you are MDs. Neither one of you are epidemiologists. Neither one of you are virologists. He's at least candid about his lack of experience, although it's disappointing that it doesn't stop him from making false claims that only the elderly will be seriously impacted by this virus.
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@MikePfirrman Very interesting. Such leadership. Really don't know what there is to disagree with your comment.
Pandemics are pretty bad times to try to "go it alone" in the world. I think the US is going to learn a very difficult lesson. Right now we are "winning" at total cases, if we can trust any of these numbers. How many people have the virus and have not been included in the numbers due to lack of testing. I do hope that they develop a seralogic test that can be easily taken to see who had it. I know that they are working on it.6
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