Coronavirus prep

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  • missysippy930
    missysippy930 Posts: 2,577 Member
    How did Germany anticipate this well enough to have a good supply of tests available? Availability of the tests seems to be a major problem, at least in the US.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.

    Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.

    We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.

    Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).

    Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.

    A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.

    Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.

    Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.

    https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/

    "Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."

    Okay, then.

    "This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."

    Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).

    This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.

    We are looking forward to reading your better sources.

    I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.

    I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.

    How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.

    You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.

    I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.

    If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.

    He's only your "peer" in the sense that neither of you are doctors, epidemiologists, or virologists. Is that why you feel qualified to evaluate his work?

    Because your your first sentence is false the second one does not make sense.
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,865 Member
    mkculs13 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »

    Manufacturers have increased production and others are converting lines to help with production...but it's not like flipping a switch and all of a sudden ventilators and PPE equipment comes rolling off these lines. Also, these companies supply a global market, not just the USA. It's a global market and global demand for a global crisis.

    It's not quite as easy as snapping one's fingers and getting production to match worldwide demand. Not particularly a fan of this administration, but they're pretty limited in what they can really do here. The only thing they could really do is basically take control of the US stockpile as an emergency and distribute them where they see most fit...but at current, there would still be shortages around the country.

    There are numerous articles showing production of new ventilators has not started, at least as of a few days ago. Decisive action, based on the information coming out of China, would have made a difference.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/03/23/gm-and-ford-are-not-yet-making-ventilators-despite-trumps-assertion/#3e7ef6214784

    Also: "What is really needed, a number of public health experts and former government officials say, is for Washington to take control of the nation’s existing ventilator supply. Because peak coronavirus infections will hit cities and regions at different times in the coming months, a centralized federal effort could send unused machines to hospitals that need them most." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/health/ventilators-coronavirus.html



    Yeah...that's pretty much what I said...you don't just snap your fingers and convert manufacturing lines. It'll take weeks, if not months for Ford, GM, etc to convert lines. There has been some increased production as GE, the world's largest supplier of ventilators did start around the clock production. I also mentioned the federal government taking over the US stockpile...doing that will help in epicenters, but also leave others lacking. I think they should, but it still won't fully make up for a supply shortage.
  • bmeadows380
    bmeadows380 Posts: 2,981 Member
    supposedly, the virus has made it to my county; however, I could find only one report on it on one local tv station's website and cannot confirm it anywhere else.