Coronavirus prep
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bmeadows380 wrote: »spinnerdell wrote: »The brothels in rural Nevada, which initially stayed open with extra safeguards, have now been shut down as nonessential.
*raises eyebrow* I mean, how would you even begin to practice 6 ft minimum social distance in this case? Actually, I take that back - I really don't want to know.......lolBut businesses that need to be open to survive are lobbying to be declared essential -- I got an email from a pet grooming place (which I have never used, I have cats and they would be horrified) that claimed pet grooming had been declared essential in NY and they they were still trying to change IL's mind, and a landscaper/yard care place I used one emailed relieved that they had been declared essential.
I've got a cat that gets himself shaved once or twice a year. 3 of my 5 have maine coon in them and have that thick, long fur with a dense undercoat. 1 almost never gets mats at all; I've probably only had to cut one off of her in her 8 year lifetime. The 2nd will get them near her tail, and I sometimes have to pin her down to clip the fur in that area for hygiene reasons but that's because she is so darned fat that she can't reach that area very well to groom herself (how do you put a fat cat on a diet when she's the kind that hovers like a vulture just waiting for food while you've got 2 skittish ones that want to graze a little now and then and you aren't home all day?) Anyway, the 3rd one never bathes himself. I can probably count on one 1 hand the number of times I've actually seen this cat give himself a minor licking. He gets really grungy and since I don't have 8 arms to be able to hold him down and clip him myself, he goes to the vet and gets shaved in the summer.moonangel12 wrote: »My husband is considered essential, and was trying to figure out just who wasn’t included on the list
He was working from home so we drove into town during his lunch to check things out (didn’t get out of the car), but yeah, most everything was open minus a few storefronts (hair, consignment, can’t remember what else). Everything else had lights on and running (mostly restaurants, pharmacies, and banks I guess).
yup; not very many places are actually under that order when you look at the list, including places of worship (cause its not like the old timers like my 90 year old grandfather won't stubbornly go to church on Sunday if the doors are open, stay in place orders or no.....)
The Beckley Crossroads Mall is closed except for Rural King and Pet Smart, and I get why places like those or Tractor Supply and such are open because of feed needs for various pets and farm animals, and spring planting and such still need supplies. And I also understand grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations and convenience stores staying open.
I also understand the need and desire to keep as many places open as possible and retain as many jobs as possible, even if the hours are shortened - I guess some sort of paycheck is better than none at all!
However, the flip side is that people are people and my life's philosophy has always been that people are stupid, and its one thing that I have yet to see proven wrong. There are a good many people in my area that don't care about the orders for social distancing; if there's a place to go, they're going to go just because. And I'm not sure really how you can control that; even if you had the police and national guard making patrols in a martial law like situation, all they have to say is that they are going to the grocery/pharmacy/pet store whatever for "essentials".
Here, in Italy, you need permission to go many places that are still open. The permission is downloaded from internet and you need to print it with all your data, and where you are going--example: bank or your doctor, or work. If you are stopped by the police, you must produce the document and they will sometimes call to verify that you really have that appointment. The fine runs from $400--$3000. My husband announced that he was going to the bank the next day. I said "I hope you've got your permission slip filled out" He replied "But I have an appointment". I said " Good, then get that paper filled out". This is a very smart man. Sigh. I told him that if he was stopped, it was like throwing money out the window.6 -
paperpudding wrote: »I can see that pet grooming is sort of essential - not the fancy stuff but basic cutting of dogs with fur that needs cutting.
Also landscaping - if we want people to stay home and do home things we would be contradicting that if garden shops were closed.
I think garden shops here are closed. I've been sad for a brand new gardening shop I was excited about in my neighborhood who were just on the verge of their big time of year (they also do a lot of Christmas related stuff too, however). I should see if they are doing online business.
Edit: just checked and their storefronts are closed, but they are doing contactless delivery and Zoom consultations, which is great, and both of which I will definitely use.5 -
paperpudding wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »I can see that pet grooming is sort of essential - not the fancy stuff but basic cutting of dogs with fur that needs cutting.
Also landscaping - if we want people to stay home and do home things we would be contradicting that if garden shops were closed.
As well as basic repairs of hoses, fences etc. and basic equipment like weeding implements, buckets, etc.
Landscaping yes, and they can do it entirely outside, but I'm skeptical about pet grooming. But they could do it with complete social distancing.
some dogs dont shed hair and it needs to be cut (eg poodles) For the dog's health and comfort, not appearance.
Okay. I didn't know it was needed for heath or comfort.
It should be pretty easy for them to operate like my vet is, with curbside handoffs, even in places where they are open.0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Here, in Italy, you need permission to go many places that are still open. The permission is downloaded from internet and you need to print it with all your data, and where you are going--example: bank or your doctor, or work. If you are stopped by the police, you must produce the document and they will sometimes call to verify that you really have that appointment. The fine runs from $400--$3000. My husband announced that he was going to the bank the next day. I said "I hope you've got your permission slip filled out" He replied "But I have an appointment". I said " Good, then get that paper filled out". This is a very smart man. Sigh. I told him that if he was stopped, it was like throwing money out the window.
Wow - definitely not even close to that here yet. My sister was told to make sure she had her apron with her and was supposed to be given a letter if anyone asked, and my own employer (the local electric utility) stated that if we needed to head out somewhere for work to make sure we had our badges with us and were issuing letters to contractors and suppliers, but there hasn't been any indication yet that we will be pulled over and questioned by the state government, let alone fined. Course where I live, internet connectivity is extremely limited and very few households actually have it at home, so printing out a proof form would be very difficult for many people.
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I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.20
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I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.
Not getting political about it, just a general observation. In all walks of life, there are people who have the experience and executive functioning skills to respond well and appropriately in a crisis, like taking appropriate safety measures and helping others: we see them on the news all the time.
Some folks just don't have those tools: we see them on the news all the time, too. The only thing the appropriate people can do is support each other and set boundaries as best as can do for those who are not. It's not ideal, but it's what we have.13 -
I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.
Not getting political about it, just a general observation. In all walks of life, there are people who have the experience and executive functioning skills to respond well and appropriately in a crisis, like taking appropriate safety measures and helping others: we see them on the news all the time.
Some folks just don't have those tools: we see them on the news all the time, too. The only thing the appropriate people can do is support each other and set boundaries as best as can do for those who are not. It's not ideal, but it's what we have.
Thank you; that's helpful. I'm still wondering why those with the skills are not having more of an impact on those without.3 -
Follow up to the posts yesterday about people continuing to play sports in the parks and be in groups on the lakefront parks and the trail: Chicago mayor has closed the lakefront and certain (maybe all) parks and trails. Trib is reporting this, but says they don't yet know whether all city parks were closed or just the ones along the lakefront.
I'm going to be sad if they are all closed, as I don't live close to the lakefront anyway, but am close to a river trail that has been much less populated, and I haven't seen big groups there at all. It's no harder to avoid people running there than in my neighborhood.3 -
All parks in my county are closed. ☹️ I can't go run the track6
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Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.29 -
I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.
Not getting political about it, just a general observation. In all walks of life, there are people who have the experience and executive functioning skills to respond well and appropriately in a crisis, like taking appropriate safety measures and helping others: we see them on the news all the time.
Some folks just don't have those tools: we see them on the news all the time, too. The only thing the appropriate people can do is support each other and set boundaries as best as can do for those who are not. It's not ideal, but it's what we have.
Thank you; that's helpful. I'm still wondering why those with the skills are not having more of an impact on those without.
What's really frustrating is that it seems the decision not to order manufacturers to convert to producing necessary items was made at least partially because some affected companies lobbied against it. There are corporations volunteering though, like the auto industry. Hopefully as it becomes clear this situation will not resolve quickly on it's own, more companies will realize there is greater cost in business as usual than there is in pausing business as usual and contributing. Unfortunately I'm not the least bit surprised self preservation is the primary driver of most corporations' behavior, even in such dire times
On the state level, there are limits to what you can force citizens and companies to do. But I would hope state govt and public health officials are lobbying corporations that do business in their state to contribute.
Here in VA, our increased cases seem pretty reasonable in light of increased availability of testing, and reported deaths are at 13 I think. Most activity is still in clusters in more populous areas. UVA got their own covid-19 test approved - they can process a good amount of them daily with about a 2 hour wait for results, and have been shipping them out to other hospitals across the state. They say they are currently working on getting the wait time down under an hour. I'm really hopeful that with VA holding back the spread as well as we have so far, and several research-focused healthcare systems in state, they will be better prepared and stocked when and if we get a surge.
Out here in rural central VA, the stores have not yet restocked, and there are still semi-crowded stores at the popular shopping times, I think because the empty shelves still have folks in desperation mode. I try to go @ 9AM after any senior hours but hopefully before any rush. I pulled into the parking lot of one store, saw all the damn cars, and got right back on the road. Just looking for fresh items, and I'd like some rice and some more pasta, both of which are hard to come by right now.
I go into work twice a week for an hour or so, and downtown Charlottesville is pretty much a ghost town. I try to take a walk around town when I'm there for a little variety to my walks around the apartment complex. If I could get a bit more control over my anxiety, the introvert in me would be otherwise enjoying this social distancing thing! But it's tough to ignore the reasons for it for very long.12 -
DancingMoosie wrote: »All parks in my county are closed. ☹️ I can't go run the track
Apparently here so far it's just the lakefront (trail, beaches, and adjoining park), the downtown riverwalk, and another very popular trail (the 606) and not all trails and parks. Too many people go to those places when weather is nice and make social distancing impossible, and people were continuing to do things like play soccer in a group.3 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/1 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.23 -
janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.0 -
janejellyroll wrote: »"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
Current data in the US is that 40% of those who have been hospitalized as a result of coronavirus are 20-54 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html).
Yes, most of them do recover, and the risk of dying is much higher in elderly people in general. But if the hospitals are overwhelmed and lack ventilators, the risk to even those 20-54 who end up hospitalized is much higher.17 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.22 -
Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.19
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GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
You're going to find all sorts of people jumping on the bandwagon, giving predictions of how this is all going to play out. No one really knows yet. There are too many variables. The virus seems to attack certain countries and not let go. Even within a country some areas will be harder hit than others. The numbers are all over the place, and many cases and deaths are uncounted. In the end, all the data will tell the tale. So please take all these articles with a grain of salt.14 -
My uncle that I previously mentioned in this thread for being hospitalized (thank you for the many hugs!) has been sent home because they had no tests available and couldn’t really do much for him (and it makes me wonder - not available at all, or just not available to someone ederly and high risk ). So even someone hospitalized with COVID symptoms might not even be getting tested. 21
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I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.
Manufacturers have increased production and others are converting lines to help with production...but it's not like flipping a switch and all of a sudden ventilators and PPE equipment comes rolling off these lines. Also, these companies supply a global market, not just the USA. It's a global market and global demand for a global crisis.
It's not quite as easy as snapping one's fingers and getting production to match worldwide demand. Not particularly a fan of this administration, but they're pretty limited in what they can really do here. The only thing they could really do is basically take control of the US stockpile as an emergency and distribute them where they see most fit...but at current, there would still be shortages around the country.6 -
I think the Mayor of Albuquerque is going to need to close the Bosque trails down that run along the river. I drove by last weekend on my way to the store and the Alameda parking lot was completely full as it would be on any other spring afternoon. They are quite popular and busy for walking, jogging, and cycling...I actually don't ride them much in general because it's so crowded that you can't really get in a good hard ride without running someone over.
I'm still cycling and whatnot, but I typically either road ride on one of the slow roads that meanders through our sleepy little village or hit some more obscure trails that aren't particularly busy on my mountain bike.6 -
janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
Yes, certainly people under 60 are dying who have no known pre-existing conditions, according to news reports, for example one of the Detroit police officers:The captain was in his 50s, Chief James Craig said Tuesday. He was not believed to have had any underlying health issues."
https://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/michigan-police-captain-dies-from-covid-19-complications
I've also read what appear to be genuine first person accounts online, of recovery from near-fatal disease among young people with no known pre-existing conditions; and getting reports from a mother/daughter I know in London UK, the daughter in her 30s, and both have symptoms much worse than "respiratory tract infection that is not very severe". Yes, they have not been tested, but the symptom set is textbook.
To be fair, though, I didn't read Gale as saying that everyone under 60 who died had pre-existing conditions. Maybe I'm incorrect, but I read him as meaning "people under 60 who've gotten the disease have illustrated that many in those younger age groups have previously-unknown risk factors that can increase severity of COVID-19 for them".
I agree that the article link (Israeli structural biochemist) that started this sub-thread is irresponsible crap. But maybe millions won't die. That would be good.
Edited: Miscellaneous messy quick-typing errors.
Editing again to add: I'm not enough of a biochemist to evaluate, but the article does contain some interesting observations from this dude, within his realm of expertise, about certain issues related to the structure of the virus and technical avenues for countering it. In that sense it's worth reading. He has no business making predictions outside his expertise, and the article click-baited that aspect (surprise!
), and the interviewer seems to have provoked the click-bait headline quote by catastrophizing, and he countered with "millions won't die". 7 -
janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Update from Italy---things in the North are a bit better. New cases are down for the second day in a row. Deaths are still high. The people coming out of this that have been on ventilators have been in the hospital for a month. It's a long process, hence the overload in the hospitals.
Now, we're having small towns crop up with clusters of infection. They are quickly all quarantined, the town is isolated, and everyone is tested. More and more nursing homes are centers for the virus.
We have been in Lockdown 2 weeks now. Next week will tell the tale.
Russia has sent 100 doctors and supplies, Cuba has sent doctors, China has sent doctors and supplies, Germany has sent ventilators,The States has just sent help (hope we'll be repaying you down the line if this lets up for us).
Many small factories have started making masks and hazemat suits. We should all have masks next week.
A small sandwich shop on the ground floor of our building just reopened for takeout. Rome is still doing OK. Unless we have an explosion of cases. It's been 2 weeks now and that's encouraging, but if it happens, it will in the next few days.
Sorry about New York. You guys are strong. You'll come through.
Thanks for the detailed up date that does give some peace of mind about our future. I found the article below encouraging in all of the gloom.
https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-scientist-youre-not-going-to-see-millions-of-people-die-from-covid-19/
"Okay, so let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and I may not even be considered a virologist per se."
Okay, then.
"This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe . . ."
Except this doesn't seem to be true. A 36-year-old high school principal in New York has died. A 59-year-old chef has died. A 34-year-old in Los Angeles has died. 26% of the children who tested positive in Spain had to be hospitalized (as of three days ago).
This guy doesn't seem to know the basics of how this is impacting people, I think there are better sources available.
We are looking forward to reading your better sources.
I think we are all taken back with how many younger people had unknown preexisting health issues making the impact of COVID-19 worse.
I agree with this scientist instead of you about we are not going to see millions die from COVID-19.
How do you know that everyone hospitalized under sixty had a previously unknown underlying condition? You're moving the goalposts here because your source said specifically that "to people who are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe." You don't even agree with your own source here.
You're putting your trust in someone just because they're a scientist, even though they admittedly have no special knowledge of medicine and no specific research done on this virus. Knowing science generally doesn't make someone an expert on all topics related to medicine. The best scientists (and doctors) know what they don't know and they don't use their expertise on another topic to pretend to certainty they can't possibly justify.
I am not arguing that millions will die. I am arguing that I don't buy this guy's expertise and I think it's irresponsible for him to tell people this is no big deal.
If he did not pass your peer review I am OK with that. He passed my peer review because is replies indicated what he could and could not answer. There just are no one who can fully speak to what is or is going to happen to this new strain of virus.2 -
To be fair, though, I didn't read Gale as saying that everyone under 60 who died had pre-existing conditions. Maybe I'm incorrect, but I read him as meaning "people under 60 who've gotten the disease have illustrated that many in those younger age groups have previously-unknown risk factors that can increase severity of COVID-19 for them".
I think the issue is that to believe this non-doctor and non-epidemiologist is right when he says "This is a disease that mostly afflicts the elderly, not that one does not care about the elderly. But to people that are not classified as elderly, this generates a respiratory tract infection that is not very severe" we have to accept that everyone who is not elderly who has a more serious or even fatal reaction to infection is either doesn't exist or had an underlying health condition. If one wasn't previously diagnosed, then they must have one that is unknown.
It's the "no true Scotsman" of virus management. It's only dangerous to the elderly and those vulnerable through pre-existing health conditions, so if it's dangerous to you and you're not elderly, then you must have a pre-existing health condition. (Note: I don't think you're arguing this at all).
My response is that we have no good evidence that this disease mostly impacts the elderly. What we know so far is that there is very good evidence it is more often more serious to the elderly, but that doesn't rule out the possibility that it will be dangerous for others as well. In fact, evidence is now showing that it is apparently dangerous to the non-elderly at rates that are not insubstantial.
Besides, even if it is true that everyone who has been seriously impacted had a previously unknown health condition, that should still be concerning to everyone. If these people all had conditions that were unknown to their doctors and themselves and were only made apparent upon exposure to this virus, well, every person on earth could fall into that category. We have no way of knowing if we're one of these mysteriously compromised people, so we should still all take this very seriously.
6 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »I had trouble sleeping last night and woke up with a headache. I cannot imagine how the people of New York are feeling right now. Cuomo said on Tuesday that they anticipate needing 33,000 more ventilators. That number may be down to 26,000; I don't know. But the solution has been in the hands of one person for weeks--order the manufacture of ventilators and PPE. Americans could have produced hundreds of thousands in the time we have known about this, and still could have produced thousands when Cuomo asked for them. But nothing. Nothing from our administration. The only conclusion I can draw is that he intends to let people die. Someone please tell me I am wrong, and explain it to me. I'm sick about this.
Manufacturers have increased production and others are converting lines to help with production...but it's not like flipping a switch and all of a sudden ventilators and PPE equipment comes rolling off these lines. Also, these companies supply a global market, not just the USA. It's a global market and global demand for a global crisis.
It's not quite as easy as snapping one's fingers and getting production to match worldwide demand. Not particularly a fan of this administration, but they're pretty limited in what they can really do here. The only thing they could really do is basically take control of the US stockpile as an emergency and distribute them where they see most fit...but at current, there would still be shortages around the country.
Elon Musk estimated 8-10 weeks for before they would be on line with new ventilators. He did fly over 1100 ventilators from China to the west coast as a stop gap action. I think they are looking at NY factory to produce the new ventilators.
0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?1 -
I think too that a lot of these numbers are skewed. Until and unless we get a broad swath of tests across the entire demographic of sick AND WELL people, we won't know.
In Washington state, our death numbers are really skewed. The first major outbreak was in a hospice/nursing home. Something like 37 people have died of COVID 19 related illness from one facility, including a hospital physician in his forties from the hospital where they were all sent.
We have 100 deaths. 37 of them are from that one outbreak.
A hospice/nursing home. Old people, who were very sick to start with. That skews the numbers to the elderly. I think this is going to even out quite a lot more in coming days when more positive tests are reported. Hopefully not a lot of young people will die, but I wouldn't want to place a bet on that. It just makes sense to be as careful as possible and beat this back.
9 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Spoke too soon. After 2 days of a downward trend in new cases, the North jumped again. Sigh.
Do you hear any reasons why Germany has a much lower death rate than Italy?
Because Germany has been way more proactive in testing and tracking, not just social distancing and shutting things down. The last I checked, Germany was testing 160K + per day and immediately quarantining those infected and then tracing their movements and contacts and quarantining those individuals as well. From what I understand in Italy, it was much the same as the USA...an early laissez faire approach and attitude and only really testing when people are symptomatic to leave a whole bunch of non symptomatic people who are infected running around and infecting others
South Korea had the same general approach as Germany, and both of those countries have fared far better than anyone else in this.19 -
In case we needed more reasons to love hockey: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/nhs-bauer-to-switch-from-making-hockey-helmets-to-coronavirus-face-shields/2097293/
And this has some good tips and resources for people caring for disabled adults and kids, including how to explain Covid-19 to them without terrifying them. It's California based, so may have suggestions or resources that other states don't offer.
https://cainclusion.org/resources/camap/newsletter-archive/202003-newsletter7
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