Coronavirus prep
Replies
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cwolfman13 wrote: »Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
I am in no way an advocate for carelessly re-opening...I don't know about other states, but NM has a plan for phased re-opening...it's not like the flood gates will just be opened. It is already mandatory for employees of any business that is currently operating whether curbside or in store to wear masks and to keep the 6' social distance, and those things will go well into the multiple phases of re-open. I'm pretty sure social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing aren't going anywhere.
In regards to flattening the curve and there being a rebound once things start to open up...well, that is inevitable. A lot more people are going to get sick and a lot more people are going to die over the coming months and likely years. You can't quarantine the virus into oblivion. The virus is with us...it will be with us...it's not just going to vanish off the face of the earth. You can't shutter economies into perpetuity in some vain attempt to quarantine the virus away.
In New Mexico we are substantially increasing testing and contact tracing as part of a federal pilot program. If you want to be tested, you can get tested regardless of whether you've had known contact with coronavirus or have symptoms. That will go a long way in quickly isolating outbreaks and I think going forward, the state is going to need to address hot spots in isolation rather than painting the entire state with broad brushed restrictions.
I just wish more people understood this. It seems like a lot of people think this is something that will be a memory in a couple of months, and if we just flip the switch and get back to "real life" everything will be fine. Hopefully enough people do understand!
Yeah, I really don't get the logic. Viruses don't just vanish into thin air. It will likely take a couple of years just to develop some semblance of herd immunity to this thing. I am also not particularly confident in there ever being a vaccine. To my knowledge, we don't have any vaccines for other coronaviruses, so I guess I would be surprised if they come up with one for this. If coronaviruses were that easy to tackle, why wouldn't we have a vaccination for the common cold by now?
I am hopeful that this virus will act like many other viruses and recede to an extent in the summer, but I would also anticipate a resurgence in the fall...hopefully somewhat of a "summer break" will give the health care system ample time to ramp things up. I personally think we're somewhat fortunate in the US that this hit in late winter, going into spring...if this would have hit last September or October when regular cold and flu season picks up, I think things would be even worse.4 -
corinasue1143 wrote: »i need a haircut and my shop is still closed. Do I go elsewhere? Where? Or wait?
Saw a meme today. Won't repost here because not a meme thread. Two signs printed in huge font on white paper, put in a window, facing out:
"Your hair looks great!"
"I like how it saves lives."13 -
So which directive is Los Angeles County getting? Beach or stay home? can't have both at the same time.
https://patch.com/california/culvercity/s/h41wi/la-county-could-have-stay-at-home-order-through-august?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert2 -
Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
Agreed. I think unfortunately alot of people simply don't understand how a novel virus works. Anyone who's been studying pandemics and contagious disease professionally has been saying the most likely scenario is a series of tightening and loosening restrictions based on hospitalization numbers until a vaccine or treatment is widely available globally, which yes could be more than another year. Unfortunately, very few places around the world have leadership giving people a clear and realistic message of that. And people can't process the numbers - who can imagine what 200,000 people in the US dying of something in a 6 month period looks like? I don't know anyone whose lost someone to this, whose witnessed what a person who ends up in the ICU with this goes through and is left with even if they recover, who subscribes to others taking their chances with it.
I also think most people don't understand economics. Hundreds of thousands of people dying, more hundreds of thousands of people being sick or hospitalized for weeks, and more hundreds of thousands of people knowing they are at great risk so they should isolate themselves, means the economy isn't going to recover any time soon, open or closed. It can improve a little, but we're in a global recession now because of the pandemic, not because of social distancing. More than a third of Americans are obese, and obesity has been shown to be a pretty predictable vulnerability with this thing. Whatever policies we follow, it's going to be dicey until we get the virus generally under control somehow.
Sorry if I sound really negative, I'm just so disappointed right now. I'm trying to imagine some of these people 100 or so years ago, being drafted into a war happening on another continent, being told by the government to contribute to war supplies being manufactured rather than their usual jobs, standing in bread lines during the Depression. It required strong leadership and people willing to be asked to make sacrifices for the good of the nation and the world. Can you imagine if that happened today? People are fuming at the idea that their government might try to force them to wear a cloth mask in public.
I always enjoy reading your posts. Always sensible, concise, and thought provoking.
If I ever had questions you'd be the one I ask..
🙂9 -
corinasue1143 wrote: »i need a haircut and my shop is still closed. Do I go elsewhere? Where? Or wait?
Saw a meme today. Won't repost here because not a meme thread. Two signs printed in huge font on white paper, put in a window, facing out:
"Your hair looks great!"
"I like how it saves lives."
Feel free to post it here: https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/discussion/10789131/coronavirus-memes
There was a great Aquanet meme there recently which could use some company
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corinasue1143 wrote: »Just curious. Why were barber shops among the first to open here, among the last in other states? Did our governor need a haircut and your governor has a private barber?
What state are you in? If Georgia, or your state's reopening guidelines are similar to GA, I can PM you something that I can't post here lest it be deemed too political.
My OH taught himself to trim his hair, and he did a great job on my ends and bangs. I'm about ready to find some youtube videos and let him learn how to cut layers. If it doesn't work out, I'll be in a ponytail all summer
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paperpudding wrote: »RE: Churches. A lot of people are upset that in guidance, it is "churches" or "churches and synagogues" - the word "mosque" is never used. They should either say "religious gatherings" or name them all. It gives the impression that some religions are allowed to continue their services and others are not. I don't think that is the point of the ruling, but it gives that impression to a lot of people. Some governors have said they will shut down churches permanently if they break guidelines. This isn't applied to businesses, so it feels they are singling out churches.
Our state government has put up "guidance" for religious groups, and "directives" for all other groups. He said he understands that the government should not be governing how people worship, but the state does have authority and power over all the other industries. I respect that.
Yes i think they should use a general all encompassing term like Religious gatherings, in a secular country.
[snip] And it's also true I've been trying to follow the news less obsessively, since it was bad for my state of mind over the past month or so.)
[snip]
I also had to seriously moderate news consumption recently, and that included this thread. Fingers crossed.6 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
I am in no way an advocate for carelessly re-opening...I don't know about other states, but NM has a plan for phased re-opening...it's not like the flood gates will just be opened. It is already mandatory for employees of any business that is currently operating whether curbside or in store to wear masks and to keep the 6' social distance, and those things will go well into the multiple phases of re-open. I'm pretty sure social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing aren't going anywhere.
In regards to flattening the curve and there being a rebound once things start to open up...well, that is inevitable. A lot more people are going to get sick and a lot more people are going to die over the coming months and likely years. You can't quarantine the virus into oblivion. The virus is with us...it will be with us...it's not just going to vanish off the face of the earth. You can't shutter economies into perpetuity in some vain attempt to quarantine the virus away.
H
In New Mexico we are substantially increasing testing and contact tracing as part of a federal pilot program. If you want to be tested, you can get tested regardless of whether you've had known contact with coronavirus or have symptoms. That will go a long way in quickly isolating outbreaks and I think going forward, the state is going to need to address hot spots in isolation rather than painting the entire state with broad brushed restrictions.
I just wish more people understood this. It seems like a lot of people think this is something that will be a memory in a couple of months, and if we just flip the switch and get back to "real life" everything will be fine. Hopefully enough people do understand!
Yeah, I really don't get the logic. Viruses don't just vanish into thin air. It will likely take a couple of years just to develop some semblance of herd immunity to this thing. I am also not particularly confident in there ever being a vaccine. To my knowledge, we don't have any vaccines for other coronaviruses, so I guess I would be surprised if they come up with one for this. If coronaviruses were that easy to tackle, why wouldn't we have a vaccination for the common cold by now?
I am hopeful that this virus will act like many other viruses and recede to an extent in the summer, but I would also anticipate a resurgence in the fall...hopefully somewhat of a "summer break" will give the health care system ample time to ramp things up. I personally think we're somewhat fortunate in the US that this hit in late winter, going into spring...if this would have hit last September or October when regular cold and flu season picks up, I think things would be even worse.
Viruses sometimes do vanish into thin air, though, or rather, they mutate to be less infectious or less deadly. That’s what happened with SARS and the Spanish Flu and it’s the best possible resolution to Covid-19. But you can’t count on it.
Re: staged re-opening. My own county plan is a staged re-opening which looked good on paper. The reality turns out to be somewhat different. And I wonder, based on what you’re saying, if you are in the same sort of situation. Our stages are tied to the metric “percentage positive cases.” You can’t move to the next stage unless the percentage of positive cases have been level or going down for the past two weeks. Sounds great! But. It turns out that at the same time they moved into phase 1, they started making free testing for non-symptomatic people available. Also sounds great. But guess what? When you compare the percentage of positive cases of people who are being tested because they have symptoms with the percentage of positive cases of people who are being tested for no good reason at all, it looks like there are a lot fewer positive cases. It’s comparing apples to oranges. And I believe it was absolutely set up this way deliberately by someone in the government who understands how statistics work, to enable them to move ahead with the re-opening regardless. In total numbers, we have had two record-breaking days of new cases in the past week. But they are moving to phase 2 next week anyway, because they met their target of percentage.
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cwolfman13 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
I am in no way an advocate for carelessly re-opening...I don't know about other states, but NM has a plan for phased re-opening...it's not like the flood gates will just be opened. It is already mandatory for employees of any business that is currently operating whether curbside or in store to wear masks and to keep the 6' social distance, and those things will go well into the multiple phases of re-open. I'm pretty sure social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing aren't going anywhere.
In regards to flattening the curve and there being a rebound once things start to open up...well, that is inevitable. A lot more people are going to get sick and a lot more people are going to die over the coming months and likely years. You can't quarantine the virus into oblivion. The virus is with us...it will be with us...it's not just going to vanish off the face of the earth. You can't shutter economies into perpetuity in some vain attempt to quarantine the virus away.
H
In New Mexico we are substantially increasing testing and contact tracing as part of a federal pilot program. If you want to be tested, you can get tested regardless of whether you've had known contact with coronavirus or have symptoms. That will go a long way in quickly isolating outbreaks and I think going forward, the state is going to need to address hot spots in isolation rather than painting the entire state with broad brushed restrictions.
I just wish more people understood this. It seems like a lot of people think this is something that will be a memory in a couple of months, and if we just flip the switch and get back to "real life" everything will be fine. Hopefully enough people do understand!
Yeah, I really don't get the logic. Viruses don't just vanish into thin air. It will likely take a couple of years just to develop some semblance of herd immunity to this thing. I am also not particularly confident in there ever being a vaccine. To my knowledge, we don't have any vaccines for other coronaviruses, so I guess I would be surprised if they come up with one for this. If coronaviruses were that easy to tackle, why wouldn't we have a vaccination for the common cold by now?
I am hopeful that this virus will act like many other viruses and recede to an extent in the summer, but I would also anticipate a resurgence in the fall...hopefully somewhat of a "summer break" will give the health care system ample time to ramp things up. I personally think we're somewhat fortunate in the US that this hit in late winter, going into spring...if this would have hit last September or October when regular cold and flu season picks up, I think things would be even worse.
Viruses sometimes do vanish into thin air, though, or rather, they mutate to be less infectious or less deadly. That’s what happened with SARS and the Spanish Flu and it’s the best possible resolution to Covid-19. But you can’t count on it.
Re: staged re-opening. My own county plan is a staged re-opening which looked good on paper. The reality turns out to be somewhat different. And I wonder, based on what you’re saying, if you are in the same sort of situation. Our stages are tied to the metric “percentage positive cases.” You can’t move to the next stage unless the percentage of positive cases has been level or going down for the past two weeks. Sounds great! But. It turns out that at the same time they moved into phase 1, they started making free testing for non-symptomatic people available. Also sounds great. But guess what? When you compare the percentage of positive cases of people who are being tested because they have symptoms with the percentage of positive cases of people who are being tested for no good reason at all, it looks like there are a lot fewer positive cases. It’s comparing apples to oranges. And I believe it was absolutely set up this way deliberately by someone in the government who understands how statistics work, to enable them to move ahead with the re-opening regardless. In total numbers, we have had two record-breaking days of new cases in the past week. But they are moving to phase 2 next week anyway, because they met their target of percentage.
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The seasonal cold is the result of the action of several viruses (rhinoviruses), and the seasonal flu is caused by an ever-mutating virus. Hard to find a vaccine that covers all the angles successfully.cwolfman13 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
I am in no way an advocate for carelessly re-opening...I don't know about other states, but NM has a plan for phased re-opening...it's not like the flood gates will just be opened. It is already mandatory for employees of any business that is currently operating whether curbside or in store to wear masks and to keep the 6' social distance, and those things will go well into the multiple phases of re-open. I'm pretty sure social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing aren't going anywhere.
In regards to flattening the curve and there being a rebound once things start to open up...well, that is inevitable. A lot more people are going to get sick and a lot more people are going to die over the coming months and likely years. You can't quarantine the virus into oblivion. The virus is with us...it will be with us...it's not just going to vanish off the face of the earth. You can't shutter economies into perpetuity in some vain attempt to quarantine the virus away.
In New Mexico we are substantially increasing testing and contact tracing as part of a federal pilot program. If you want to be tested, you can get tested regardless of whether you've had known contact with coronavirus or have symptoms. That will go a long way in quickly isolating outbreaks and I think going forward, the state is going to need to address hot spots in isolation rather than painting the entire state with broad brushed restrictions.
I just wish more people understood this. It seems like a lot of people think this is something that will be a memory in a couple of months, and if we just flip the switch and get back to "real life" everything will be fine. Hopefully enough people do understand!
Yeah, I really don't get the logic. Viruses don't just vanish into thin air. It will likely take a couple of years just to develop some semblance of herd immunity to this thing. I am also not particularly confident in there ever being a vaccine. To my knowledge, we don't have any vaccines for other coronaviruses, so I guess I would be surprised if they come up with one for this. If coronaviruses were that easy to tackle, why wouldn't we have a vaccination for the common cold by now?
I am hopeful that this virus will act like many other viruses and recede to an extent in the summer, but I would also anticipate a resurgence in the fall...hopefully somewhat of a "summer break" will give the health care system ample time to ramp things up. I personally think we're somewhat fortunate in the US that this hit in late winter, going into spring...if this would have hit last September or October when regular cold and flu season picks up, I think things would be even worse.
The virus responsible for COVID-19 does not seem to be mutating too fast or at all. Researchers feel that this finding could help in the development of a vaccine. However, other researchers feel that a vaccine may never came to fruition due to the pathology of this particular corona virus.
This virus makes the cells in the lungs sick; it does not kill them. It produces an overactive immune response in the body that helps to develop a cytokine storm. It seems that this immune reaction is what is killing the patients. Besides, it seems to affect younger patients, including children, in a complete different way than older folks.
Any vaccine effective for the control of the infection has to be one that does not supper activate the immune system. This is also the reason why there are so many labs working on a vaccine; they are trying to tackle the virus from different ways. They need to make sure that when they test the vaccine, it will not be worse that the virus itself (safety), and that it provides long term immunity, specially for the older population. Just because scientist are familiar with the corona virus, doesn’t mean that they know how to stop it or control it.
If you would like more scientific information, check these links.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/no-vaccine-for-coronavirus-a-possibility/news-story/34e678ae205b50ea983cc64ab2943608
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-vaccine/art-20484859
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-04-06/why-will-it-take-so-long-for-a-covid-19-vaccine
Common Cold Causes: Coronavirus, RSV, Rhinovirus & More
https://www.webmd.com/Cold-and-flu/Cold-guide/Common_cold_causes
Just from today Senate meeting
:
Fauci emphasizes the need for more than one vaccine to be available.
Scientists hope to know by late fall or early winter whether they have at least one possible effective vaccine, Dr. Fauci told the senators. But he cautioned, “Even at the top speed we’re going, we don’t see a vaccine playing in the ability of individuals to get back to school this term.”
Dr. Fauci emphasized the importance of having “multiple winners,” meaning more than one vaccine available, to provide “global availability.” He repeated his cautious optimism that an effective vaccine would be developed but said there was no guarantee that would happen.
“You can have everything you think that’s in place, and you don’t induce the kind of immune response that turns out to be protective, and durably protective,” he said. “So, one, the big unknown is it will be effective.” Another concern is “disease enhancement,” the possibility that a vaccine could induce an immune response that would make the illness worse.
“We want to make sure that doesn’t happen,” Dr. Fauci said, adding that he was hopeful there would be a vaccine candidate with some degree of efficacy that would induce the kind of herd immunity that would protect the population as a whole. He said developing a vaccine in the next year to two years was “definitely not a long shot,” adding, “it is more likely than not that we will.”9 -
Call your shop or hairdresser. A rather large number of them are still secretly open.corinasue1143 wrote: »i need a haircut and my shop is still closed. Do I go elsewhere? Where? Or wait?
You are seriously suggesting people do this ???
If any shops are secretly and illegally operating I sure wouldn't be supporting or condoning that.
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Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
Flattening the curve is needed to keep the rate of new infections lower than the rate of recoveries. Less new infections give more time for medical personnel to devote care to those already sick and prevent deaths.2 -
corinasue1143 wrote: »Just curious. Why were barber shops among the first to open here, among the last in other states? Did our governor need a haircut and your governor has a private barber?
Just curious. Why do people need barbershops? I cut my own hair for 5 years, and my wife continued for the next 32 years after that. She never stopped during the lockdown.2 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »This news article has an interesting graphic to show Covid-19 daily deaths compared to other leading causes of death.
https://www.ketv.com/article/coronavirus-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-united-states/32380058?fbclid=IwAR0e55H7_PtwjICSDBgP8kIkVB0FmHF8AtAOTnxLNIi6DX761rHWe2KNJK4#
Very interesting!! So the numbers only sound high, while being very much in line with the other top leading causes of death. This will soon be so ordinary it won't even be news.
Hope you all heard the sarcasm in my voice.
Yes, but while it hovers day-to-day as one of the top few causes of death now, it may be successful in reaching #1 and staying #1 if people keep ignoring reasonable precautions like face coverings, social distancing, and frequent hand washing.
Yes. Just my point. We can reach the point where everybody becomes careless and complacent because they figure if you don't die from this, you're just as likely to die from something else anyway.1 -
https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.7
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runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
Ha! Interesting and enlightening. Apparently I didn't know at least a couple of factors that could affect R and how they might change things!3 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
I am forwarding this to every old person I know - most of them have been making noises like they are sick of lockdown and it’s never going to be any different anyway so they might as well just risk it now. This is the only thing I’ve seen that easily and clearly explains what it looks like when things get better.5 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
This is long, but explains everything so well---THANK YOU!!! It really gives hope at a time it's needed. Anyone who is depressed about the situation now should take a look.4 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
This is great. Everyone should see this. Thank you.5 -
I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.9
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