Coronavirus prep
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@JustSomeEm You're up bright and early. Me, too. Thanks for the link.0
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@Diatonic12 - I suspect I live in a timezone that is several hours ahead of yours. And if you are where I think you are, then you were certainly posting early.
I've been having to work from the office full-time (or nearly so) for several months. We just completed a major project, so have been able to dial it back to 50% from the home office, so I have a little more leeway to play on MFP during breaks.
Slightly off-topic, but I've discovered some interesting challenges thanks to working from home due to COVID. I tend to sit on a futon in my office with my laptop on a stool in front of me to work. One of my incredibly large dogs somehow managed to wedge herself between the back of the futon and me just now. She's lumpy, but surprisingly comfy and warm to lean on while I'm working. At least for now...14 -
Good news from Eli Lilly on its antibody development, but I'm being cautious. Even 72% reduction in risk is not enough IMO. Considering we are approaching 1 million world-wide deaths in a matter of months (not years), a 72% reduction is just not enough. It is a good start, though.
Ely Lilly Claims Experimental Drug Protects Covid-19 Patients https://nyti.ms/2FGW3Pg2 -
Related to what @T1DCarnivoreRunner posted the other day. Looking like we're all in good shape, LOL. It's the science deniers that are in big trouble. Could also mean that the vaccine search isn't going all that well.
https://news.yahoo.com/video/cdc-director-redfield-suggests-masks-164608773.html5 -
No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?5
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No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.11 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Some are saying only 43% now would be necessary. Look, I'm not for herd immunity. It's just happening as a result of very poor communicated messages on mask wearing and people just disregarding common sense. I do think we might hit 600K or 700K dead before it's all said and done, but I don't think that the original projections of 2M dead to reach Herd Immunity is accurate. And as far as the 70%, we simply don't know how many might have had enough exposure while wearing masks to already have immunity.
You could be right about exposure not meaning immunity. But I think with the T cell information (being more effective and longer term and antibodies), I do think that most that have had it will have long term protection. It seems to be gaining traction that this is the case.
Sweden's rates of infection are now below pre pandemic levels. Dropping rapidly.0 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."1 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
I certainly hope that's the case...I guess I'm just pessimistic lately. I didn't used to be; I've been an optimist all my life, but now I just expect the worst all the time.
I'm just worried that people will start to assume things about their potential immunity, and use that as an excuse to engage in risky behavior (not referring to you, personally, just "people" in general).
I have heard people say things like, "Oh, I had a sore throat back in April, so that was probably it, so now I'm probably immune". Even the antibody tests make me nervous...I think it can give people a false sense of security.
Any potential vaccine is going to be the same problem...if it's 50 percent effective, it can likely get approved. But, I see people who get the vaccine then thinking that they are invincible.
Ugh, this is why I can't sleep at night.10 -
@SuzySunshine99 - your pessimism is understandable, completely so. I worry about my siblings a lot. At least one, one of the most at risk, is also science denier (ironic because she's a nurse but believes politicians over science). All you can do is you. The good news is that if you're doing everything they recommend -- not eating inside, not going to a gym, not going to crowded events or parties and wearing a mask -- and it sounds like you follow all of those guidelines, then you're doing really well.
What's going to happen to many that think this is behind us this Fall and Winter will be terrible. But there's no stopping that train because it's long left the station. At this stage, if you still don't get how dangerous this is, as tragic as it sounds, the herd might need to be culled.
We are at Jonestown levels X 1000 here with the mass destruction/suicide. Except the Cool-Aid is not literal. One of my close relatives passed this past week. She was well over 80 and very few in her family believes this is serious stuff. No testing and no reason given why she passed except "she couldn't breathe". I can't be certain and I would never likely mention it, but I'm pretty sure I know what she had. It will never show up in the stats either.5 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@SuzySunshine99 - your pessimism is understandable, completely so. I worry about my siblings a lot. At least one, one of the most at risk, is also science denier (ironic because she's a nurse but believes politicians over science). All you can do is you. The good news is that if you're doing everything they recommend -- not eating inside, not going to a gym, not going to crowded events or parties and wearing a mask -- and it sounds like you follow all of those guidelines, then you're doing really well.
What's going to happen to many that think this is behind us this Fall and Winter will be terrible. But there's no stopping that train because it's long left the station. At this stage, if you still don't get how dangerous this is, as tragic as it sounds, the herd might need to be culled.
We are at Jonestown levels X 1000 here with the mass destruction/suicide. Except the Cool-Aid is not literal.
Unfortunately, the nature of this virus is that it's not necessarily the poorly-behaved/science deniers who are culled. Most people live through the virus, which includes most who get it because they're poorly behaved. The people they spread it to may be doing the right things, but happen to be a neighbor who is older and has a lung condition, or a teacher at the kids' school who is diabetic, or the care aide at their granny's assisted living facility. Who they infect is a crapshoot.
ETA: The local superspreader even in the college town bar started with 18-29 y/o people (or maybe it was 18-28). The secondary cases were age 16 to 60s, so scooped in people at higher risk of severe cases, but who didn't themselves do the stupid stuff. (I don't know if there were any fatalities in that group. Some of the anecdotes illustrated that they had no way to know what the young person had done, so were unaware of the increased risk.)8 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
I certainly hope that's the case...I guess I'm just pessimistic lately. I didn't used to be; I've been an optimist all my life, but now I just expect the worst all the time.
I'm just worried that people will start to assume things about their potential immunity, and use that as an excuse to engage in risky behavior (not referring to you, personally, just "people" in general).
I have heard people say things like, "Oh, I had a sore throat back in April, so that was probably it, so now I'm probably immune". Even the antibody tests make me nervous...I think it can give people a false sense of security.
Any potential vaccine is going to be the same problem...if it's 50 percent effective, it can likely get approved. But, I see people who get the vaccine then thinking that they are invincible.
Ugh, this is why I can't sleep at night.
My understanding from listening to people who have specialized in virus research and are working on covid is that herd immunity without a vaccine will take years and millions of deaths. They are however quite optimistic that a vaccine that is "effective enough" will start to be available next year. While it will shorten the time to reach possible herd immunity, that will still take longer than we want it to, but should dramatically reduce infections and deaths as we go. Regardless, masks will be an issue for the foreseeable future, so our ability to normalize them will be IMHO key!
As bad as things got in NY, I saw something extrapolating the numbers based on deaths, tests, and sewage testing suggested not even 30% of the population was infected. And the Red Cross just announced that less than 3% of the donors theyve tested for antibodies across the US were positive. Obviously that's a limited sample size of only healthy people who are willing and able to donate. But not an impressive number.
We need a vaccine and honestly I'm really optimistic we'll get it. I share your worry that not enough people will come around to accepting masking up and innovating distancing into our everyday lives until then though!7 -
@AnnPT77 -- I agree there will be lives lost that don't need to be lost and some by no fault of their own, tragically. No argument there. It's already happening now. I just don't see how it's avoidable in the current environment.0
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I took my dear sweet mother to the doctor. There's a person at the front desk who doesn't believe in any of this and everything else that's shared on this thread. She told my mother, 'You've got such a pretty face and you don't look your age but I can't see it.' You know me enough by now, I would fight like hail for any of my folkaronies. It took everything I had to keep my mouth shut. I knew what she was getting at but I love my mother. I'm headed over there to see her right now. What does it take before we start using our heads besides something to part our ears with. My father says that and he did cross over but I keep his words alive. I'm just carrying on in the family tradition. I will cabbage onto any and all optimism I can find here.
Thank you, MikeP.
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SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception2 -
White House abandoned plan to send 650 million face masks across the U.S. in April, report says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html
Key Points:- The U.S. Postal Service had drafted a press release announcing plans to send 650 million masks across the U.S. early in the coronavirus crisis, but the plan was abandoned, The Washington Post first reported.
- In April, Postal Service leaders drafted an announcement saying the USPS would deliver five reusable face masks to every residence and post office box in the country.
- The White House ultimately canceled the program, senior administration officials told the Post.
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In my alt world utopia back in January when China first shut down and extended their new year the entire WORLD took it seriously and face covers were mandatory. Being in industry our logistics folks started sending daily updates For them to shut down gave me chills and every update I saw from suppliers made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.4
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kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.5
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