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  • kshama2001kshama2001 Member Posts: 22,481 Member Member Posts: 22,481 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Agreed to not let's do that :)
  • ahoy_m8ahoy_m8 Member Posts: 2,136 Member Member Posts: 2,136 Member
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    Don’t modern vaccines use adjuvants to enhance immune response ? Wouldn’t that be more protective than casual exposure?
  • JustSomeEmJustSomeEm Member, MFP Moderator, Greeter, Premium Posts: 18,366 MFP Moderator Member, MFP Moderator, Greeter, Premium Posts: 18,366 MFP Moderator


    Hey folks - just a reminder for users who may be new to the thread or community, please review community guidelines (link below). One of those guidelines prohibits divisive topics in the main community (if you'd like to discuss something like politics here at MFP, please create or find a group).

    https://www.myfitnesspal.com/community-guidelines

    Stay healthy,
    Em
    edited September 18
  • MikePfirrmanMikePfirrman Member Posts: 1,961 Member Member Posts: 1,961 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.

    And the latest models on Herd Immunity have said that (likely) 43% or less need to be infected and we might have herd immunity. I'm just pointing out the obvious. People aren't doing what they are supposed to be doing. The mask deniers and the college students are spreading it rapidly. The CDC talking about comorbidities was the last straw of control that was lost. These are just facts. I still pray, against all odds, that we'll have a vaccine, but I'm not counting on it. I think we'll reach herd immunity first, to be completely honest. But I don't think 2 million will die. At least I hope not. I think Fall, Winter and early Spring will have horrific numbers of dead and, like the Spanish Flu, will taper out late Spring and it will be mostly in our rear view mirror by Summer.

    If you add in the fact that many might potentially have immunity from exposure with masks (and low viral loads building immunity) to the fact that many, many more could have had it than official numbers indicate, we could be at 20% to 25% now. That wouldn't entirely shock me. Antibodies don't last, so antibody tests might not show if someone has T Cells that will protect them, so the antibody testing as a litmus test for how much of the population has had isn't an accurate measure. Not at all.

    Let me have my dark optimism. Because we're not all of a sudden going to all start listening, have 100% mask compliance and mature up 20 somethings. It's not happening. Even if we had consistency of messaging from the top, local authorities would not enforce a national mask mandate because of politics.

    Here's a decent article on the Antibodies versus T Cells on fighting Covid-19.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122807223/coronavirus-us-research-suggests-bigger-role-for-t-cells-than-antibodies-in-fighting-off-covid19

    As this article points out, as you age, your T Cells dwindle. That's why this is such an efficient killer of the elderly.

    Here's a good article on the 43% versus 70% for herd immunity. A few scientists think it might be 20%.

    https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/08/17/herd-immunity
    edited September 18
  • MikePfirrmanMikePfirrman Member Posts: 1,961 Member Member Posts: 1,961 Member
    @T1DCarnivoreRunner -- yeah, there were several early scenarios with the worst one being that this would be around forever, like the seasonal flu, with no true long term vaccine ever found. It's shaping up like that. When I say "herd immunity", I'm talking not loss of massive life -- 100's or 1000's a day. I think we're going to have to keep protections in place for the elderly for years. With their lack of T Cells, it's going to be hard. But with time, the virus has mutated to be more contagious but much less deadly. The strain that hit NYC on was much more deadly than the one that hit CA and the West Coast, though those were more contagious. I'm hoping it continues that way. SARS wasn't nearly as contagious.

    Where the antibodies could come into play (if they never find a long term vaccine) is for added protection for the elderly. I could see that as a game plan. I'm not convinced they have any vaccine that has lasting effects.
    edited September 18
  • MikePfirrmanMikePfirrman Member Posts: 1,961 Member Member Posts: 1,961 Member
    This is a great article on the overview of where we're at. It's a long one but a good one on the challenges and the stark reality that we may never find the "silver bullet" vaccine.

    https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/the-state-of-the-fight-against-covid-19
  • T1DCarnivoreRunnerT1DCarnivoreRunner Member Posts: 10,958 Member Member Posts: 10,958 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.

    I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.

    I agree completely. The only reason I kept bringing it up is all people were talking about is antibodies and saying things like, "the antibodies are short lived, so immunity won't last". I had to keep pointing out that antibodies are great, but the T-Cells is where the long lasting immunity comes from.

    And related to Herd Immunity, if what you're saying about some not even exposed to Covid-19 have T-Cells that are protecting them (and again I agree 100% with you and the science on it), then that's precisely why we might not have to get to 70% of the population having Covid-19 to get to herd immunity.

    So I think we're in total agreement except you're assuming that these are well known facts. Obviously, they aren't or we wouldn't still be hearing about antibodies as the only defense and 70% of the population needs to get Covid-19 to get to Herd immunity. Neither of which I believe is true and it sounds like you support that?

    You likely know science more than the rest of us, which is great. It's helpful to the rest of us.

    None of that explains the re-infections, though. If T-Cells were good enough after anti-bodies are gone, we wouldn't see re-infections... and that is something that indicates herd immunity cannot be achieved over several years.
  • MikePfirrmanMikePfirrman Member Posts: 1,961 Member Member Posts: 1,961 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.

    I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.

    I agree completely. The only reason I kept bringing it up is all people were talking about is antibodies and saying things like, "the antibodies are short lived, so immunity won't last". I had to keep pointing out that antibodies are great, but the T-Cells is where the long lasting immunity comes from.

    And related to Herd Immunity, if what you're saying about some not even exposed to Covid-19 have T-Cells that are protecting them (and again I agree 100% with you and the science on it), then that's precisely why we might not have to get to 70% of the population having Covid-19 to get to herd immunity.

    So I think we're in total agreement except you're assuming that these are well known facts. Obviously, they aren't or we wouldn't still be hearing about antibodies as the only defense and 70% of the population needs to get Covid-19 to get to Herd immunity. Neither of which I believe is true and it sounds like you support that?

    You likely know science more than the rest of us, which is great. It's helpful to the rest of us.

    None of that explains the re-infections, though. If T-Cells were good enough after anti-bodies are gone, we wouldn't see re-infections... and that is something that indicates herd immunity cannot be achieved over several years.

    So far, I've only read about one documented reinfection, at least in the US. There haven't been a ton to my knowledge.

    There have been some, but not a lot.

    https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/08/24/1933220/first-covid-19-reinfection-has-been-documented

    If I'm not mistaken, what I think they are saying in this article is that most that have been reinfected are asymptomatic, which is potentially dangerous to those that haven't been exposed yet. And I also believe they are saying the T Cells won't keep you from getting it, they just keep you from getting as seriously ill if you get it.

    Now, as you age and your T Cells naturally dwindle, that's the concern.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

    If I'm off base with anything I'm saying, I'm not a scientist. That's the way I'm understanding it.
    edited September 19
  • T1DCarnivoreRunnerT1DCarnivoreRunner Member Posts: 10,958 Member Member Posts: 10,958 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.

    I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.

    I agree completely. The only reason I kept bringing it up is all people were talking about is antibodies and saying things like, "the antibodies are short lived, so immunity won't last". I had to keep pointing out that antibodies are great, but the T-Cells is where the long lasting immunity comes from.

    And related to Herd Immunity, if what you're saying about some not even exposed to Covid-19 have T-Cells that are protecting them (and again I agree 100% with you and the science on it), then that's precisely why we might not have to get to 70% of the population having Covid-19 to get to herd immunity.

    So I think we're in total agreement except you're assuming that these are well known facts. Obviously, they aren't or we wouldn't still be hearing about antibodies as the only defense and 70% of the population needs to get Covid-19 to get to Herd immunity. Neither of which I believe is true and it sounds like you support that?

    You likely know science more than the rest of us, which is great. It's helpful to the rest of us.

    None of that explains the re-infections, though. If T-Cells were good enough after anti-bodies are gone, we wouldn't see re-infections... and that is something that indicates herd immunity cannot be achieved over several years.

    So far, I've only read about one documented reinfection, at least in the US. There haven't been a ton to my knowledge.

    There have been some, but not a lot.

    https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/08/24/1933220/first-covid-19-reinfection-has-been-documented

    If I'm not mistaken, what I think they are saying in this article is that most that have been reinfected are asymptomatic, which is potentially dangerous to those that haven't been exposed yet. And I also believe they are saying the T Cells won't keep you from getting it, they just keep you from getting as seriously ill if you get it.

    Now, as you age and your T Cells naturally dwindle, that's the concern.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

    If I'm off base with anything I'm saying, I'm not a scientist. That's the way I'm understanding it.

    I'll admit there aren't a lot of cases to review, but 1 of the 4 in this article was significantly worse the 2nd time. That's not re-assuring: https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-twice-experts-discuss-cases-154834889.html
  • lemurcat2lemurcat2 Member Posts: 5,727 Member Member Posts: 5,727 Member
    Just saw a set of "man-on-the-street" interviews about covid deaths in the U.S. on NBC News. Obviously, not a scientific survey, and you don't know how many people they asked to find the uninformed ones they broadcast, but people were saying they thought "thousands," "1900" and "tens of thousands" of people have died in the U.S. so far from covid (it's actually just shy of 200,000 as of today). How can we expect people to take it seriously if they don't know that it's on target to be one of the top three causes of death this year, behind heart disease and cancer?

    How do we deal with the fact that people don't apparently know the facts about a lot of things? We probably can't. It just is, upsetting as that may be.
  • lemurcat2lemurcat2 Member Posts: 5,727 Member Member Posts: 5,727 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    Gisel2015 wrote: »
    No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." >:) All is good, isn't it?

    I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.

    The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.

    Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.

    Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

    It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.

    Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.

    I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.

    I agree completely. The only reason I kept bringing it up is all people were talking about is antibodies and saying things like, "the antibodies are short lived, so immunity won't last". I had to keep pointing out that antibodies are great, but the T-Cells is where the long lasting immunity comes from.

    And related to Herd Immunity, if what you're saying about some not even exposed to Covid-19 have T-Cells that are protecting them (and again I agree 100% with you and the science on it), then that's precisely why we might not have to get to 70% of the population having Covid-19 to get to herd immunity.

    So I think we're in total agreement except you're assuming that these are well known facts. Obviously, they aren't or we wouldn't still be hearing about antibodies as the only defense and 70% of the population needs to get Covid-19 to get to Herd immunity. Neither of which I believe is true and it sounds like you support that?

    You likely know science more than the rest of us, which is great. It's helpful to the rest of us.

    None of that explains the re-infections, though. If T-Cells were good enough after anti-bodies are gone, we wouldn't see re-infections... and that is something that indicates herd immunity cannot be achieved over several years.

    It so far doesn't seem like there are a lot of reinfections, though, and the one big example that was confirmed as a reinfection was someone who had it badly before and asymptomatically later, which is not bad news.

    I'm on the "we don't know enough to claim to know anything" train, but I do wonder about examples like NYC and Sweden, where I think there may be some form of herd immunity. Current upticks in Italy and Spain (I think the same regions that were hit before, but would love correction), suggest otherwise. I'd heard London was doing well, but am interested in what's going on there.
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