Coronavirus prep

Options
1378379381383384747

Replies

  • baconslave
    baconslave Posts: 6,956 Member
    Options
    I just had a cousin pass today who was only 32 with no pre existing conditions. She was in the hospital for almost 3 months. I am just devastated. She was so young. She was a NP.

    I'm so sorry for your loss, @Noreenmarie1234 :disappointed:
  • Gisel2015
    Gisel2015 Posts: 4,142 Member
    Options
    I just had a cousin pass today who was only 32 with no pre existing conditions. She was in the hospital for almost 3 months. I am just devastated. She was so young. She was a NP.

    Very, very sorry for your loss. May our cousin finally rest in piece without more suffering after spending almost three months in the hospital. Devastating.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,984 Member
    Options
    Here's another article on that same topic.

    https://wgntv.com/news/wgn-investigates/how-accurate-is-illinois-count-of-deaths-caused-by-coronavirus-we-asked-the-experts/

    This article points out that if someone dies from Covid-19 and there's been a positive diagnosis, it might possibly be counted as a Covid-19 death (which to some seems concerning). But what the article also points out is that many more aren't ever tested and pass away from Covid-19, so likely the numbers are much higher.

    Hunh? If "someone dies from Covid-19," why shouldn't it "be counted as a Covid-19 death." Why would someone find that "concerning"?
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    Options
    Here's another article on that same topic.

    https://wgntv.com/news/wgn-investigates/how-accurate-is-illinois-count-of-deaths-caused-by-coronavirus-we-asked-the-experts/

    This article points out that if someone dies from Covid-19 and there's been a positive diagnosis, it might possibly be counted as a Covid-19 death (which to some seems concerning). But what the article also points out is that many more aren't ever tested and pass away from Covid-19, so likely the numbers are much higher.

    Hunh? If "someone dies from Covid-19," why shouldn't it "be counted as a Covid-19 death." Why would someone find that "concerning"?

    Bad phrasing. If someone dies and had Covid-19, it's going to be counted as Covid-19, regardless of how much the other comorbidity contributed to the death, significantly or not. That is concerning for many, though, as the article points out, it's the best way to count people and many are not counted at all without testing.
  • ReenieHJ
    ReenieHJ Posts: 9,724 Member
    Options
    I just had a cousin pass today who was only 32 with no pre existing conditions. She was in the hospital for almost 3 months. I am just devastated. She was so young. She was a NP.

    I'm so sorry. :(
    There is no rhyme or reason. (HUGS)
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    Options
    Here's another article on that same topic.

    https://wgntv.com/news/wgn-investigates/how-accurate-is-illinois-count-of-deaths-caused-by-coronavirus-we-asked-the-experts/

    This article points out that if someone dies from Covid-19 and there's been a positive diagnosis, it might possibly be counted as a Covid-19 death (which to some seems concerning). But what the article also points out is that many more aren't ever tested and pass away from Covid-19, so likely the numbers are much higher.

    Hunh? If "someone dies from Covid-19," why shouldn't it "be counted as a Covid-19 death." Why would someone find that "concerning"?

    Bad phrasing. If someone dies and had Covid-19, it's going to be counted as Covid-19, regardless of how much the other comorbidity contributed to the death, significantly or not. That is concerning for many, though, as the article points out, it's the best way to count people and many are not counted at all without testing.

    From a public health standpoint, it is most likely valuable to understand which Covid-19-related deaths involve comorbidities and which don't. But when it comes to understanding the IMPACT this is having on our country, I don't see an honest way to count it without tracking how many people have died, including those with comorbidities.

    (I know you're not arguing otherwise, just adding my two cents).

    Agreed. It's likely very, very hard to figure out causation and this is the best way to count statistics. I can't imagine how political it would get without a uniform definition of fatalities that are Covid-19 related, no matter how imperfect. While I understand some saying this might inflate the numbers on occasion, it's more concerning that it might make many put their guards down.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,984 Member
    Options
    Here's another article on that same topic.

    https://wgntv.com/news/wgn-investigates/how-accurate-is-illinois-count-of-deaths-caused-by-coronavirus-we-asked-the-experts/

    This article points out that if someone dies from Covid-19 and there's been a positive diagnosis, it might possibly be counted as a Covid-19 death (which to some seems concerning). But what the article also points out is that many more aren't ever tested and pass away from Covid-19, so likely the numbers are much higher.

    Hunh? If "someone dies from Covid-19," why shouldn't it "be counted as a Covid-19 death." Why would someone find that "concerning"?

    Bad phrasing. If someone dies and had Covid-19, it's going to be counted as Covid-19, regardless of how much the other comorbidity contributed to the death, significantly or not. That is concerning for many, though, as the article points out, it's the best way to count people and many are not counted at all without testing.

    Ah. OK.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    Options
    Since there has been a lot of folks minimizing the Coronavirus as "the flu" or "a cold" again all over social media, though this is a horrific story, it's also a reminder anyone can die from this. This amazing young woman's family has been all over the news lately (likely not on certain networks, though, that like to underplay the virus).

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/28-year-old-doctor-dies-from-covid-19-family-says/ar-BB19jvRW?ocid=uxbndlbing
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    edited September 2020
    Options
    Good article from one of my Linkedin scientist contacts. Basically, from what I can gather from this because I haven't had time to digest it and my non-scientific mind can't grasp all of it, we're in this for the long haul and vaccines will only be a small part of keeping this thing at bay. It's also going to be around, though after this next Spring to a much lesser extent, for a long, long time (assuming you believe in science).

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/18/science.abd7343
  • AnnPT77
    AnnPT77 Posts: 32,267 Member
    Options
    In thinking about individual an herd immunity, I'm often hearing it spoken of as a binary: Either we have it - personal or herd immunity - or we don't.

    That isn't how I've been thinking about it, exactly. Wondering if anyone with actual science expertise can comment authoritatively.

    From what I'd heard/read, my impression was that there was at least some hope that individual immunity (from either disease or vaccine) might result in milder cases, and/or maybe a better chance to naturally fight off smaller viral loads, even if it wasn't able to fully prevent catching the virus. (Also, that if the immunity is limited-time, that that would eventually be declining immunity over a period of time, with possible partial effects later on, rather than "immune one day, not immune the next" kind of thing.)

    If that's true, it seems like the herd immunity might be more complicated than just "50% immunity" or "70% immunity" or whatever in the population, kind of in three ways:

    1. On the bad side, if people have partial iimmunity, perhaps there might be more incidence of asymptomatic (or near asymptomatic) cases, so that more people with mild cases might be walking around in regular life thinking they were well, or having a seasonal repiratory allergy bout, or something.
    2. On the plus side, it seems like if there are relatively fewer cases (because some individual people are fully immune, don't get it, can't spread it), that has the potential to reduce the effective spread in the population, even bif we haven't reached what we'd call full herd immunity. Bascially, it seems like that wider but not full-herd immunity would metaphorically make the virus walk a maze to find its next victim, instead of just barreling down the wide sidewalk full speed ahead hitting everyone and setting off new chains of cases along the way.
    3. Also on the plus side, and this would be minor for sure, if there are badly behaved people who are going to go out amongst others even with symptoms (which clearly there are), perhaps milder cases have a slightly lower communicability because the idiot in question isn't cough/sneeze-spewing into the environment quite as much, just breathing out the ick with less force.

    So, any authoritative opinions? Is partial immunity (milder cases) a useful thing, individually or for "the herd"? Is this a continuum of possible immunity, individual and herd, vv. a simple yes/no?
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    Options
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    In thinking about individual an herd immunity, I'm often hearing it spoken of as a binary: Either we have it - personal or herd immunity - or we don't.

    That isn't how I've been thinking about it, exactly. Wondering if anyone with actual science expertise can comment authoritatively.

    From what I'd heard/read, my impression was that there was at least some hope that individual immunity (from either disease or vaccine) might result in milder cases, and/or maybe a better chance to naturally fight off smaller viral loads, even if it wasn't able to fully prevent catching the virus. (Also, that if the immunity is limited-time, that that would eventually be declining immunity over a period of time, with possible partial effects later on, rather than "immune one day, not immune the next" kind of thing.)

    If that's true, it seems like the herd immunity might be more complicated than just "50% immunity" or "70% immunity" or whatever in the population, kind of in three ways:

    1. On the bad side, if people have partial iimmunity, perhaps there might be more incidence of asymptomatic (or near asymptomatic) cases, so that more people with mild cases might be walking around in regular life thinking they were well, or having a seasonal repiratory allergy bout, or something.
    2. On the plus side, it seems like if there are relatively fewer cases (because some individual people are fully immune, don't get it, can't spread it), that has the potential to reduce the effective spread in the population, even bif we haven't reached what we'd call full herd immunity. Bascially, it seems like that wider but not full-herd immunity would metaphorically make the virus walk a maze to find its next victim, instead of just barreling down the wide sidewalk full speed ahead hitting everyone and setting off new chains of cases along the way.
    3. Also on the plus side, and this would be minor for sure, if there are badly behaved people who are going to go out amongst others even with symptoms (which clearly there are), perhaps milder cases have a slightly lower communicability because the idiot in question isn't cough/sneeze-spewing into the environment quite as much, just breathing out the ick with less force.

    So, any authoritative opinions? Is partial immunity (milder cases) a useful thing, individually or for "the herd"? Is this a continuum of possible immunity, individual and herd, vv. a simple yes/no?

    There was an article written by a doctor in Sweden, I believe, that declares they have achieved herd immunity despite a rather low infection rate overall. This is based on not having many current cases that are severe, but that is not my understanding of what herd immunity means either. I agree it isn't a single thing we have or don't have. The gray area is going to become a debate - some will say reduced cases proves herd immunity before others.
  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
    Options
    Ann -- I believe you're spot on. I saw a scientist debate on Linkedin the other day where even the scientists can't agree. One scientist I'm connected to mentioned that vaccines will be a "part of" the 70% needed to reach herd immunity. The bulk of the debate was do we even need 70% with many having limited immunity or strong T Cell protection.

    I stayed away from this debate because I'm not a scientist. But it was the same debate we've had on here, even prior to seeing this on among the scientists. So, I guess no one knows for sure.