Coronavirus prep
Replies
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@Gisel2015 - Yes, she does magnesium "oil" (magnesium dissolved in purified water) often. It's a trick we learned when she had severe fibromyalgia. It has helped some but until she got her blood sugar down, little was helping.
I can relate to what you went through with the OJ. She made chili last night and was talking about loading it up with saltines. I'm like, we don't need the saltines. It has beans in it already and we don't need a lot of crackers in it. I think she believes me about it but I can't wait till the doctor appointment and possibly to sit down with a Dietician. It won't be too hard for us, she quickly gave up a lot when she had Fibromyalgia to get out of pain but she held on to her sugar, just not realizing how much she was taking in.
I'm sorry @snowflake954 to hear about Italy again. So many places are like that in the US now, except I can't see us locking down again. We just have to decide what's worth it and protect ourselves. I wish masks were obligatory here. I just heard Russia made them mandatory yesterday as well. People would riot here if you make masks mandatory. Such emotional immaturity here.10 -
@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA0
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@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Probably not the scientific reason but would think virus fatigue would come into play. People tired of masks, social distancing etc.6 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Probably not the scientific reason nut would thint virus fatigue would come into play. People tired of masks, social distancing etc.
That was what was coming to my mind. Curious if there are biological components as well?0 -
@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Arizona during the heat of our Summer had the highest per capita on the planet. My strong belief is that when they opened up gyms, bars and restaurants it spread quickly indoors. While our numbers are slightly up again, nothing like they were in the Summer. I felt, even with a high amount of universities, that cooling temps would help and it seems like it has.
Contrast that with the Midwest and the Northeast. Schools and universities back in session, flu season and everyone indoors. Add to it the Holiday gatherings and the numbers from Spring will be dwarfed. The only good news is that Coronavirus has mutated to be less deadly, but also more contagious.
Like in AZ, the anti-maskers will soon get a sobering reality check when the hospitals start pulling up refrigerator trucks for extra morgues. They were ordering them in AZ when people all of a sudden started wearing masks. You used to go the grocery store here and see around 25% to 30% without masks (because the local govt refused to enforce it). Now, it's like the rare one or two people you see. Very few unmasked. And less that aren't wearing it properly.6 -
Nony_Mouse wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »You are assuming that this virus was controllable. Viruses like sharks have been around longer than man and both seem to control the responses of man more than the other way around. It has been said from the get go this coming winter was going to be very hard but hopefully the experts are wrong. You are correct often the second and third waves are worse.
Out of the UK last week we heard Covid-19 may be with us for years to come. Keep in mind most of what we have heard since March 2020 has been filtered by non medical people.
We now understand the lack good health practices invites pandemics historically speaking.
It was. Several countries have done it/are doing it. But as the person above you said, it's too late for those that didn't get control of it early. The horse has well and truly bolted.
Will you please share the current Covid-19 stats for 3 of the several countries that you claim have done it/are doing it?
China has claimed the virus behind Covid-19 was the work of the USA and that may have some merit but most nations are pointing fingers towards mainland China. Assuming the virus did come from China once it was exported by plane directly to the USA west coast and to the east coast way of Italy medically speaking Covid-19 was not controllable in the USA or other countries period.
Today in the USA alone we are certain millions are walking around spreading the virus with no outward symptoms. A killer virus that can hide undetected by outward signs in infected humans is NOT controllable period. It can be Managed but not Controlled.
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Masking up is much better here than when our governor first mandated it. There are still those lone rangers out there, who for whatever reason still refuse. The other night I was at the grocery store and all the workers had on masks.....except one. I almost asked him why. Maybe it was health reasons? But honestly, people who cannot wear one due to health reasons can't wear the shield? IDK. But I stayed clear.5
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MikePfirrman wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Arizona during the heat of our Summer had the highest per capita on the planet.
Probably not. The early outbreaks were way undercounted due to a severe shortage of testing. Just look at the death rates in the early states (esp NY/NJ).My strong belief is that when they opened up gyms, bars and restaurants it spread quickly indoors. While our numbers are slightly up again, nothing like they were in the Summer. I felt, even with a high amount of universities, that cooling temps would help and it seems like it has.
Contrast that with the Midwest and the Northeast. Schools and universities back in session, flu season and everyone indoors. Add to it the Holiday gatherings and the numbers from Spring will be dwarfed. The only good news is that Coronavirus has mutated to be less deadly, but also more contagious.
I think they will be up vs the summer, because of the weather, as you say, but I would be shocked if the areas that got very hard hit in the spring (the NE, parts of the midwest like Chicago, perhaps Michigan) actually got hit harder than in the spring. Then, we had had lots of unchecked spreading with no precautions at all before the outbreak started to hit. Even with the uptick, NY's numbers (such as positivity rate) is still extremely good, and absolutely nothing compared with the spring. Chicago's uptick and deaths still leave us looking much better off than in the spring and early summer.
Knock on wood and all that.2 -
@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
To some extent, I think it's an assumption and we will have to see.
Part of it is that with influenza it is worse in colder weather and tends to go away in hotter weather, so there were claims from the beginning -- without any actual evidence -- that covid would go away in the heat. That was clearly not the case, but it has been generally easier to control when weather makes it easier to spend lots of time outdoors.
There's also the second wave idea from the 1918-19 flu, where the second wave was much worse since it evolved to be deadlier. I don't think that's generally the case with viruses or there's any reason to assume that's happening here.
I also would question whether "second wave" is accurate within the US, as we've only really had one wave that's simply bounced around the country. If things got really bad in NYC again, that could probably be caused a second wave, but a lot of what's happened is the wave that was already here responding to reopenings, not a true second wave.
That aside, winter could be bad because of people being indoors more, holiday season, covid fatigue (as Theoldguy said), and especially because it will also be flu season.
Here's a discussion of the second wave concerns: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus
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@lemurcat2 -- the strain that hit NY and NJ early was a much more deadly one that mutated quite a bit before AZ got hit. I was talking more in terms of cases per capita at the time. NY, as far as fatalities, had around 1 death for 600 population. AZ had 1 for 1000 population, not terribly far behind. We only have 7 million residents and around 7000 deaths, worse than Italy per capita, which is shocking considering the Italian strain was said to have been much more deadly. Italy has 9 times the population of AZ. They had 35K deaths, considerably lower per capita.
What's completely infuriating to anyone with a lick of sense is Italy rallied behind their healthcare workers and sang songs of support. In AZ, we had anti-maskers threaten them and yell in their faces. Not a good look. My Italian clients were aghast (I work a lot with Italian based companies as a consultant).8 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »https://www.wkdzradio.com/2020/10/25/sunday-kentucky-covid-19-update/
From the news it sounds like Covid-19 number of cases are setting records in USA and Europe. The USA had some hot spots 6 months ago but now is wide spread with more nursing home involvement than ever in our region. Hope the talk of turning the corner in 2022 turns out to be correct.
i am so hoping you meant to type 2021.
I don't have a whole lot of hope that 2021 is going to be better...if anything, I think it may be worse. It's only October and we're already seeing record numbers across the US and Europe. In NM we hit a new record of cases every single day right now and we're at record hospitalizations. Mortality seems to be down, but our hospitals are around 90% capacity right now for intensive care and they're talking about setting up the army tent hospitals again...I just don't think that's going to miraculously go away in the coming months as we head into 2021.
I have to go get tested again...I went into the office on Monday and popped on the thermometer 4 times with a temp of 100.5...I don't have any other symptoms, but I have to have a negative test before they will allow me to go back to work...unfortunately, the number of people I know personally who have contracted the virus is growing as well. I was supposed to get tested today, but we had a big freak snow storm and everything is closed, so I have to wait until Thursday.7 -
@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
@Theoldguy1 point is very valid in a practical sense.
I see getting Covid-19 and getting pregnant as being similar in a math sense.
A 100 million sperm released in an ovulating female may lead to a pregnancy where a release of one million most likely would not.
As late as mid March 2020 in my area there were no reported cases of Covid-19 so a trip to church or WalMart was almost risk free as far as getting Covid-19 but that is not the case today even though we are thought to still be in the first wave in the USA. The number of cases in hospitals and nursing homes are continuing to climb daily.
The higher viral load we are exposed to the more likely we are to get Covid-19. Every public building today I just assume contains the virus. Outside is relatively safe unless you are in a riot, protest or rally of some sort.
In the USA I do not think there is one person not being exposed to the virus. Our health status is key where we get Covid-19 and its impact if we do get it.
Yesterday we voted and I paid our property taxes for 2020 since I was at the courthouse to vote. I did not want to go but the wife and daughter did. KY is a red state clinging to guns and bibles so there is no way to flip the state blue so why vote in this pandemic was my thinking but we all know women run the world. Most were my age or older and some were on walkers and the main door is not handicap friendly so they were for some reason motivated voters. Yes is see getting in line to vote as a super spreader event. Masks were mandatory and enforcers were wearing real guns with real bullets so there was 100% compliance without being asked.
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@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
I know they're calling it the 2nd or 3rd wave, but frankly, I don't think the US even dealt with the first wave. Numerous states started opening everything up in May/June and have continued now into the fall with schools and Universities also being open. Basically, there are a whole lot of people and states out there running around as if we are in a pre-COVID environment.8 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@Gisel2015 - Yes, she does magnesium "oil" (magnesium dissolved in purified water) often. It's a trick we learned when she had severe fibromyalgia. It has helped some but until she got her blood sugar down, little was helping.
I can relate to what you went through with the OJ. She made chili last night and was talking about loading it up with saltines. I'm like, we don't need the saltines. It has beans in it already and we don't need a lot of crackers in it. I think she believes me about it but I can't wait till the doctor appointment and possibly to sit down with a Dietician. It won't be too hard for us, she quickly gave up a lot when she had Fibromyalgia to get out of pain but she held on to her sugar, just not realizing how much she was taking in.
I'm sorry @snowflake954 to hear about Italy again. So many places are like that in the US now, except I can't see us locking down again. We just have to decide what's worth it and protect ourselves. I wish masks were obligatory here. I just heard Russia made them mandatory yesterday as well. People would riot here if you make masks mandatory. Such emotional immaturity here.
Oh man, I would not eat saltines if you paid me! Different people are different obviously but I was shocked at how much they spiked my bg.
One thing I wish someone had told me when I first got my type 2 diagnosis - a lot of the time doctors won’t give you a meter if you’re type 2. Get one if you have to use your own money, and use it often until you learn your own tolerances! Funny how those saltines seem so little when they cross your mouth but not so little when you’re looking at 160 bg an hour later. And some of the canned goods which look bad on paper because of the added sugar turn out to be just fine because the added fat makes them hit your bloodstream more slowly. Every diabetic is different! Of course still crossing my fingers your wife doesn’t have it, but...
Honestly if she does have it, a lot of the symptoms of uncontrolled bg for me were similar to fibromyalgia. My hands and feet used to hurt a lot but it was just the glucose. And getting it under control feels so much better.7 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
I know they're calling it the 2nd or 3rd wave, but frankly, I don't think the US even dealt with the first wave. Numerous states started opening everything up in May/June and have continued now into the fall with schools and Universities also being open. Basically, there are a whole lot of people and states out there running around as if we are in a pre-COVID environment.
Two agree with you.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/anthony-fauci-cdc-covid19-pandemic-first-wave-case-numbers-b1349492.html0 -
rheddmobile wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »@Gisel2015 - Yes, she does magnesium "oil" (magnesium dissolved in purified water) often. It's a trick we learned when she had severe fibromyalgia. It has helped some but until she got her blood sugar down, little was helping.
I can relate to what you went through with the OJ. She made chili last night and was talking about loading it up with saltines. I'm like, we don't need the saltines. It has beans in it already and we don't need a lot of crackers in it. I think she believes me about it but I can't wait till the doctor appointment and possibly to sit down with a Dietician. It won't be too hard for us, she quickly gave up a lot when she had Fibromyalgia to get out of pain but she held on to her sugar, just not realizing how much she was taking in.
I'm sorry @snowflake954 to hear about Italy again. So many places are like that in the US now, except I can't see us locking down again. We just have to decide what's worth it and protect ourselves. I wish masks were obligatory here. I just heard Russia made them mandatory yesterday as well. People would riot here if you make masks mandatory. Such emotional immaturity here.
Oh man, I would not eat saltines if you paid me! Different people are different obviously but I was shocked at how much they spiked my bg.
One thing I wish someone had told me when I first got my type 2 diagnosis - a lot of the time doctors won’t give you a meter if you’re type 2. Get one if you have to use your own money, and use it often until you learn your own tolerances! Funny how those saltines seem so little when they cross your mouth but not so little when you’re looking at 160 bg an hour later. And some of the canned goods which look bad on paper because of the added sugar turn out to be just fine because the added fat makes them hit your bloodstream more slowly. Every diabetic is different! Of course still crossing my fingers your wife doesn’t have it, but...
Honestly if she does have it, a lot of the symptoms of uncontrolled bg for me were similar to fibromyalgia. My hands and feet used to hurt a lot but it was just the glucose. And getting it under control feels so much better.
We're gluten free, because I'm Celiac, which is worse, believe it or not. GF products are loaded with rice and corn starch instead of wheat. I'm going to likely lean a bit on your insight. Been reading through the Diabetic support group. Thanks!3 -
Some more information that came out today and a link abotu the Oxford vaccine.
Oxford vaccine:
https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27B0L7
The US has seen almost half a million new coronavirus cases in one week as the dreaded fall surge continues to grow, and some places could be close to what former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb called “an exponential spread.” That’s not the only bad news: A new British study has shown a decline in coronavirus antibodies over three months -- a sign that immunity to Covid-19 wanes. This aligns with other studies that showed people who tested positive but had no symptoms are likely to lose antibodies faster than people with more severe symptoms. The American Academy of Pediatrics says it's seen a 14% increase in child Covid-19 cases over the last two weeks, and pediatric cases now make up more than 10% of all US cases.4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@lemurcat2 -- the strain that hit NY and NJ early was a much more deadly one that mutated quite a bit before AZ got hit. I was talking more in terms of cases per capita at the time. NY, as far as fatalities, had around 1 death for 600 population. AZ had 1 for 1000 population, not terribly far behind. We only have 7 million residents and around 7000 deaths, worse than Italy per capita, which is shocking considering the Italian strain was said to have been much more deadly. Italy has 9 times the population of AZ. They had 35K deaths, considerably lower per capita.
I don't think we know that it was a more deadly strain. What we certainly don't know is how many cases NY had per capita, because they were extremely undertested, which is why their death per case looks much worse, and we've also learned some about how to treat it. Comparing case tallies now or even during the summer to the spring is misleading (you definitely see this in my city and state). Death tallies is a better way to compare like to like, although it lags.
Anyway, here are the stats for deaths (per 100K), with NYC of course much higher than NY as a whole:
1) NJ: 183
2) NY: 172
3) MA: 142
9) AZ: 80
10) IL: 76 [IL is weird because Chicago got hit hard early but most of the state was barely hit at all, and now cases are picking up around the state and upticking some from a comparatively low number in Chicago, but still in Chicago they are way less than at the worst, when overall cases--as with the NE--were way understated due to inadequate testing]What's completely infuriating to anyone with a lick of sense is Italy rallied behind their healthcare workers and sang songs of support. In AZ, we had anti-maskers threaten them and yell in their faces. Not a good look. My Italian clients were aghast (I work a lot with Italian based companies as a consultant).
We did the song thing too, here in Chicago. Wouldn't be surprised if it was happening in NYC and elsewhere in the NE too.5 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
I know they're calling it the 2nd or 3rd wave, but frankly, I don't think the US even dealt with the first wave. Numerous states started opening everything up in May/June and have continued now into the fall with schools and Universities also being open. Basically, there are a whole lot of people and states out there running around as if we are in a pre-COVID environment.
I saw a headline earlier today where Dr. Fauci is saying this is still first wave.3 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »Yesterday we voted and I paid our property taxes for 2020 since I was at the courthouse to vote. I did not want to go but the wife and daughter did. KY is a red state clinging to guns and bibles so there is no way to flip the state blue so why vote in this pandemic was my thinking but we all know women run the world. Most were my age or older and some were on walkers and the main door is not handicap friendly so they were for some reason motivated voters. Yes is see getting in line to vote as a super spreader event. Masks were mandatory and enforcers were wearing real guns with real bullets so there was 100% compliance without being asked.
I voted a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed quite safe where I am. The whole thing took 15 minutes, with only a couple of minutes in line, the line socially distanced (as were the voting booths), and of course masks required. I could have voted by mail, but I preferred going in person.
I was concerned that it might be more of a wait on voting day, although I am lucky enough to live in an area where we don't have the kinds of insane lines we see some places (it's not really luck, of course, but local policy, but can't say more about that, as it would be political).8 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Arizona during the heat of our Summer had the highest per capita on the planet.
Probably not. The early outbreaks were way undercounted due to a severe shortage of testing. Just look at the death rates in the early states (esp NY/NJ).My strong belief is that when they opened up gyms, bars and restaurants it spread quickly indoors. While our numbers are slightly up again, nothing like they were in the Summer. I felt, even with a high amount of universities, that cooling temps would help and it seems like it has.
Contrast that with the Midwest and the Northeast. Schools and universities back in session, flu season and everyone indoors. Add to it the Holiday gatherings and the numbers from Spring will be dwarfed. The only good news is that Coronavirus has mutated to be less deadly, but also more contagious.
I think they will be up vs the summer, because of the weather, as you say, but I would be shocked if the areas that got very hard hit in the spring (the NE, parts of the midwest like Chicago, perhaps Michigan) actually got hit harder than in the spring. Then, we had had lots of unchecked spreading with no precautions at all before the outbreak started to hit. Even with the uptick, NY's numbers (such as positivity rate) is still extremely good, and absolutely nothing compared with the spring. Chicago's uptick and deaths still leave us looking much better off than in the spring and early summer.
Knock on wood and all that.
Michigan cases do appear to be rising, with daily new-case counts now reaching and exceeding what we saw in Spring. According to Bridge Michigan (generally regarded as a sound news source), the 7-day average new case count is the highest ever.
But that's statewide. The per-capita regional patterns are very different.
Of course the raw case numbers are high in the densely-populated Detroit area (where Spring's Covid impact was profound). But per capita, the case levels are highest now in some medium-density and low-density regions that were not hit hard as hard in Spring. Among those are the upper peninsula (very sparsely populated by most people's standards, around 300k people spread over a very large region, bigger than some states) and West to Southwest Michigan (probably medium density population with some cities like Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and others).
Of the areas with high per capita rates, I believe (relying on memory, not data) the greater Grand Rapids area had a meaningful outbreak in the Spring (GR = 200k population, Kent County, where it's located, 657k). I believe most of the other regions with high per capita rates now were quite low in Spring.
To a cynic (me) who lives here, the geographic pattern looks not so much like a 2nd wave in Michigan, as a "people don't learn from other people's experience" kind of thing. There are also some demographic and political dynamics that would amplify that effect, with outstate Michigan (perhaps especially the West and far North) inclined to see greater Detroit as "those people", not "us". When "they" were dying in Spring, hospitals, morgues and funeral homes getting overwhelmed, I believe many would've seen that as something that couldn't happen in their part of the state, for a variety of reasons.6 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »Yesterday we voted and I paid our property taxes for 2020 since I was at the courthouse to vote. I did not want to go but the wife and daughter did. KY is a red state clinging to guns and bibles so there is no way to flip the state blue so why vote in this pandemic was my thinking but we all know women run the world. Most were my age or older and some were on walkers and the main door is not handicap friendly so they were for some reason motivated voters. Yes is see getting in line to vote as a super spreader event. Masks were mandatory and enforcers were wearing real guns with real bullets so there was 100% compliance without being asked.
I voted a couple of weeks ago, and it seemed quite safe where I am. The whole thing took 15 minutes, with only a couple of minutes in line, the line socially distanced (as were the voting booths), and of course masks required. I could have voted by mail, but I preferred going in person.
I was concerned that it might be more of a wait on voting day, although I am lucky enough to live in an area where we don't have the kinds of insane lines we see some places (it's not really luck, of course, but local policy, but can't say more about that, as it would be political).
I voted by mail, which normally wouldn't be allowed here (TN) without a valid reason. One of the reasons we can use is for medical reasons. Having an underlying health condition that increases my risk of severe illness from Covid is a qualifying medical reason.8 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
Arizona during the heat of our Summer had the highest per capita on the planet.
Probably not. The early outbreaks were way undercounted due to a severe shortage of testing. Just look at the death rates in the early states (esp NY/NJ).My strong belief is that when they opened up gyms, bars and restaurants it spread quickly indoors. While our numbers are slightly up again, nothing like they were in the Summer. I felt, even with a high amount of universities, that cooling temps would help and it seems like it has.
Contrast that with the Midwest and the Northeast. Schools and universities back in session, flu season and everyone indoors. Add to it the Holiday gatherings and the numbers from Spring will be dwarfed. The only good news is that Coronavirus has mutated to be less deadly, but also more contagious.
I think they will be up vs the summer, because of the weather, as you say, but I would be shocked if the areas that got very hard hit in the spring (the NE, parts of the midwest like Chicago, perhaps Michigan) actually got hit harder than in the spring. Then, we had had lots of unchecked spreading with no precautions at all before the outbreak started to hit. Even with the uptick, NY's numbers (such as positivity rate) is still extremely good, and absolutely nothing compared with the spring. Chicago's uptick and deaths still leave us looking much better off than in the spring and early summer.
Knock on wood and all that.
Michigan cases do appear to be rising, with daily new-case counts now reaching and exceeding what we saw in Spring. According to Bridge Michigan (generally regarded as a sound news source), the 7-day average new case count is the highest ever.
But that's statewide. The per-capita regional patterns are very different.
Of course the raw case numbers are high in the densely-populated Detroit area (where Spring's Covid impact was profound). But per capita, the case levels are highest now in some medium-density and low-density regions that were not hit hard as hard in Spring. Among those are the upper peninsula (very sparsely populated by most people's standards, around 300k people spread over a very large region, bigger than some states) and West to Southwest Michigan (probably medium density population with some cities like Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and others).
Of the areas with high per capita rates, I believe (relying on memory, not data) the greater Grand Rapids area had a meaningful outbreak in the Spring (GR = 200k population, Kent County, where it's located, 657k). I believe most of the other regions with high per capita rates now were quite low in Spring.
To a cynic (me) who lives here, the geographic pattern looks not so much like a 2nd wave in Michigan, as a "people don't learn from other people's experience" kind of thing. There are also some demographic and political dynamics that would amplify that effect, with outstate Michigan (perhaps especially the West and far North) inclined to see greater Detroit as "those people", not "us". When "they" were dying in Spring, hospitals, morgues and funeral homes getting overwhelmed, I believe many would've seen that as something that couldn't happen in their part of the state, for a variety of reasons.
Yeah, that's similar to here, and what's generally happening around the country, as areas not hit before and non large cities get hit. NPR had an interesting piece on that: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/22/914578634/americas-200-000-covid-19-deaths-small-cities-and-towns-bear-a-growing-share
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/22/926264615/covid-19-surges-in-rural-communities-overwhelming-some-local-hospitals
Re: cases vs deaths, back on April 28, Illinois had 2,219 new cases and 144 deaths (with a large portion, around half, in Chicago, with the next largest amount being in suburban Cook Co and then other suburban Chicago counties like DuPage). Most of the state had few cases.
Now, today we announced 4000 new cases, and 46 deaths, so you can see the numbers aren't the same. Chicago itself had 652 new cases but only 3 new deaths -- so very different than in the spring even though total state cases are higher and Chicago cases aren't too different than they were back then on many days.
What is worrisome is that our local positivity rate (which had been hovering just below 5% for some time) is spiking up to 7.8%, but back in the spring it was more like 25% or more, and in NY was at 50% for some time.
That said, even if we do get another bad outbreak in Chicago, I don't think it would qualify as a second wave, but the first wave continuing to bounce around the state and the country.2 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »https://www.wkdzradio.com/2020/10/25/sunday-kentucky-covid-19-update/
From the news it sounds like Covid-19 number of cases are setting records in USA and Europe. The USA had some hot spots 6 months ago but now is wide spread with more nursing home involvement than ever in our region. Hope the talk of turning the corner in 2022 turns out to be correct.
i am so hoping you meant to type 2021.
I don't have a whole lot of hope that 2021 is going to be better...if anything, I think it may be worse. It's only October and we're already seeing record numbers across the US and Europe. In NM we hit a new record of cases every single day right now and we're at record hospitalizations. Mortality seems to be down, but our hospitals are around 90% capacity right now for intensive care and they're talking about setting up the army tent hospitals again...I just don't think that's going to miraculously go away in the coming months as we head into 2021.
I have to go get tested again...I went into the office on Monday and popped on the thermometer 4 times with a temp of 100.5...I don't have any other symptoms, but I have to have a negative test before they will allow me to go back to work...unfortunately, the number of people I know personally who have contracted the virus is growing as well. I was supposed to get tested today, but we had a big freak snow storm and everything is closed, so I have to wait until Thursday.
SD is the same with daily record breaking. One difference is October has been, by far, the deadliest month.
The trending data shows pretty clearly that this is the first wave here.
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GaleHawkins wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »You are assuming that this virus was controllable. Viruses like sharks have been around longer than man and both seem to control the responses of man more than the other way around. It has been said from the get go this coming winter was going to be very hard but hopefully the experts are wrong. You are correct often the second and third waves are worse.
Out of the UK last week we heard Covid-19 may be with us for years to come. Keep in mind most of what we have heard since March 2020 has been filtered by non medical people.
We now understand the lack good health practices invites pandemics historically speaking.
It was. Several countries have done it/are doing it. But as the person above you said, it's too late for those that didn't get control of it early. The horse has well and truly bolted.
Will you please share the current Covid-19 stats for 3 of the several countries that you claim have done it/are doing it?
China has claimed the virus behind Covid-19 was the work of the USA and that may have some merit but most nations are pointing fingers towards mainland China. Assuming the virus did come from China once it was exported by plane directly to the USA west coast and to the east coast way of Italy medically speaking Covid-19 was not controllable in the USA or other countries period.
Today in the USA alone we are certain millions are walking around spreading the virus with no outward symptoms. A killer virus that can hide undetected by outward signs in infected humans is NOT controllable period. It can be Managed but not Controlled.
You are correct, managed is what I was meaning.
FWIW, New Zealand's current cases (as of yesterday). That one new case is someone in Managed Isolation (ie someone who has just arrived from overseas and is in mandatory MIQ for 14 days - yes, we have the audacity to confine anyone coming into the country to a 4/5 star hotel for a couple of weeks after arrival). The current community cases stem from someone who does some sort of repair work or something on ships, who contracted it on a ship they worked on recently, and close contacts of that person:
Australia is also doing well. The state of Victoria had a nasty re-emergence starting a few months back, and have just now come out of a very strict 12 week lockdown to get that under control (which they have).
Yes, both of these countries are islands. So's the UK. We most certainly had some advantages, but mostly our success in managing the pandemic was down to swift and decisive action by our leaders.18 -
@GaleHawkins Can you tell me why a second and third wave can be worse than the first? Curious what factors lead to this. TIA
I think this is an assumption, and as someone else said, if it turned out to be the case, I'd bet it was due to pandemic fatigue. If this is a second wave, I'd also guess it could be worse because it is happening during flu season, which makes hospital overcrowding and healthcare rationing more likely. Also, since it is happening all across the country at once, it will be less likely that different states can help each other by sending doctors/nurses/equipment to hard hit areas. There is no virology or epidemiology based reason why subsequent waves would be worse.4 -
@snowflake954 Will you be doing all of your cooking at home for awhile. No more wonderful meals out. Sigh.
Sidenote: I like the sound of boosted immunity for the elderly. Who in the kale would argue with that. Really.3 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@lemurcat2 -- the strain that hit NY and NJ early was a much more deadly one that mutated quite a bit before AZ got hit. I was talking more in terms of cases per capita at the time. NY, as far as fatalities, had around 1 death for 600 population. AZ had 1 for 1000 population, not terribly far behind. We only have 7 million residents and around 7000 deaths, worse than Italy per capita, which is shocking considering the Italian strain was said to have been much more deadly. Italy has 9 times the population of AZ. They had 35K deaths, considerably lower per capita.
I don't think we know that it was a more deadly strain. What we certainly don't know is how many cases NY had per capita, because they were extremely undertested, which is why their death per case looks much worse, and we've also learned some about how to treat it. Comparing case tallies now or even during the summer to the spring is misleading (you definitely see this in my city and state). Death tallies is a better way to compare like to like, although it lags.
Anyway, here are the stats for deaths (per 100K), with NYC of course much higher than NY as a whole:
1) NJ: 183
2) NY: 172
3) MA: 142
9) AZ: 80
10) IL: 76 [IL is weird because Chicago got hit hard early but most of the state was barely hit at all, and now cases are picking up around the state and upticking some from a comparatively low number in Chicago, but still in Chicago they are way less than at the worst, when overall cases--as with the NE--were way understated due to inadequate testing]What's completely infuriating to anyone with a lick of sense is Italy rallied behind their healthcare workers and sang songs of support. In AZ, we had anti-maskers threaten them and yell in their faces. Not a good look. My Italian clients were aghast (I work a lot with Italian based companies as a consultant).
We did the song thing too, here in Chicago. Wouldn't be surprised if it was happening in NYC and elsewhere in the NE too.
Doctors have learned a great deal about how covid actually harms and kills patients, and have several treatments they are now saving those lives with. In the beginning, they were treating critical cases as a respiratory issue and putting people on ventilators. Now they are treating inflammation with steroids and only using ventilators when absolutely necessary. Unfortunately, there were probably a lot of patients who died in March and April who if treated with current protocols would have survived. I don't think hospitalization rates have dropped out of proportion with cases, so it could be we are simply saving lives we weren't in the beginning. My understanding is viruses mutate to improve their ability to survive. As covid has been spreading quite easily and most people were already surviving to spread it, even if they eventually died, I'm not sure it's clear that covid has mutated to be less deadly.
And like you mentioned, the data we have to work with is suspect at best. It will be years before scientists can go through all the data, weight the numbers based on uncovered biases and policies, and say definitively what the timeline really was. Just like people who talk about aiming for natural herd immunity - herd immunity isn't a finish line you celebrate as you run across. It's something you look back on and notice we must've gotten there within the last several years.10 -
Diatonic12 wrote: »@snowflake954 Will you be doing all of your cooking at home for awhile. No more wonderful meals out. Sigh.
Sidenote: I like the sound of boosted immunity for the elderly. Who in the kale would argue with that. Really.
My husband loves pizza and we usually go out Friday and Saturday nights (he's also sweet, he wants me to get a break from cooking). He was complaining that we couldn't go because of the 6 o'clock closing. I just looked at him sideways and asked why we couldn't go to our favorite places for lunch on those days and I'd prepare the evening meal at home. There's more than one way to skin a cat, and we don't want our favorite restaurants closing, especially since they've spent money and bent over backwards to comply with COVID laws.17 -
Some more information that came out today and a link abotu the Oxford vaccine.
Oxford vaccine:
https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27B0L7
The US has seen almost half a million new coronavirus cases in one week as the dreaded fall surge continues to grow, and some places could be close to what former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb called “an exponential spread.” That’s not the only bad news: A new British study has shown a decline in coronavirus antibodies over three months -- a sign that immunity to Covid-19 wanes. This aligns with other studies that showed people who tested positive but had no symptoms are likely to lose antibodies faster than people with more severe symptoms. The American Academy of Pediatrics says it's seen a 14% increase in child Covid-19 cases over the last two weeks, and pediatric cases now make up more than 10% of all US cases.
It does seem likely that it will require a specifically engineered vaccine to provide lasting immunity, and it might take a booster or two to make it stick long term.
Also, I heard a discussion on the antibody cocktail Trump received. The antibodies are not expected to teach your body to create it's own antibodies, in fact your body most likely won't since the injected antibodies eliminate the virus before your body has the chance to "learn". So it's expected the antibody cocktail will only provide a few months of protection until those antibodies are gone and then you are susceptible again.8
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