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Coronavirus prep
Replies
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »So in the latest TWIV they interviewed Paul Bieniasz and Theodora Hatziiouannou, virologists who are renowned for working on HIV but obviously right now are focused on covid. This one was really fascinating and I'll probably listen to it again because it was more conversational and I def missed some stuff. Anyway...
They noted that declining antibodies months after vaxx is normal. The point of vaxx is not to have permanently circulating antibodies but for your body to know how to make the antibodies. They said that if your goal is just to reduce hospitalizations, then skip boosters and make sure everyone gets their two shots, but if your goal is to reduce transmission, boosters are a good idea. If I'm understanding correctly, they were saying that if you get the standard dose and 8 months later you don't have antibodies, you may become infected and be contagious for a short time before your body creates antibodies to keep you from getting really sick. But if you get a booster and have circulating antibodies when you get infected, they will eliminate the infection before you have a chance to spread.
Basically, every time you get vaxxed or get infected, it prompts your body to create more antibodies, and every time your body gets better and faster at doing so. So they expect that people who get vaxxed and then get a breakthrough infection, that infection is like a booster, except of course there is the risk that the infection may still be powerful enough to do damage in a small percentage of people.
The confounding factor is the high percentage of unvaxxed people. They said the possibility of more dangerous variants emerging as the unvaxxed continue to incubate the virus makes boosters to provide ex"ftra protection for the vaxxed an even better idea.
The other point that stuck with me was that covid tests are measuring viral RNA load in the nose, but they don't believe viral RNA load is a good way to measure transmissibility. In a vaxxed person, that RNA being measured could be in deactivated virus, not contagious viral particles. And the viral RNA load declines much more rapidly in a vaxxed person. They think time will show that vaxxed people are much less infectious and only for a short period of time, and that a vaxxed person infecting another vaxxed person is not much of a danger.
I think they touched on the case of Israel, but I don't remember what they be said. It doesn't seem from the stuff I do remember that they feel it is an accurate picture of vaccine effectiveness though.
A big focus on every episode of TWIV now is that almost all widely available vaccines do NOT stop infection, they prevent illness and greatly reduce spread. Their almost total effectiveness is reached because of herd immunity. If we want to stop having to worry about COVID-19, we need more people vaxxed asap. Which is a sobering thought. I will happily get a booster whenever it's recommended until more people come around.
I don't follow this stuff as closely as you do, and obviously don't want to argue with the actual experts you listened to (although I'm curious what "focused on covid" actually means -- have they been doing research on covid, or just talking about it on podcasts?) -- but, anyway, the impression I had in the discussions I've seen about the possible need for boosters was that epidemiologists and public health officials, as well as researchers following the early-vaccinated subjects from the clinical trials, were seeing a falling efficacy in terms of preventing infections and, in the face of the delta variant, a falling efficacy in terms of preventing varying degrees of symptomatic cases. I don't recall hearing or reading any suggestion that experts considering the need for boosters were doing so based on antibody levels, which as you say and which, even with my limited knowledge, I knew was to be expected and not a cause for concern.
Pertaining to TWIV, they are all virologists. The two guests they had in this episode do work on CoVid. They regularly have guests who work on this virus. Every week he hosts an infectious disease doc who updates everyone on the clinical aspects of Covid. These episodes generally drop on Saturdays I believe.
The episode Kimny discussed was a great one. I'm currently getting caught up now that I'm commuting again.2 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »So in the latest TWIV they interviewed Paul Bieniasz and Theodora Hatziiouannou, virologists who are renowned for working on HIV but obviously right now are focused on covid. This one was really fascinating and I'll probably listen to it again because it was more conversational and I def missed some stuff. Anyway...
They noted that declining antibodies months after vaxx is normal. The point of vaxx is not to have permanently circulating antibodies but for your body to know how to make the antibodies. They said that if your goal is just to reduce hospitalizations, then skip boosters and make sure everyone gets their two shots, but if your goal is to reduce transmission, boosters are a good idea. If I'm understanding correctly, they were saying that if you get the standard dose and 8 months later you don't have antibodies, you may become infected and be contagious for a short time before your body creates antibodies to keep you from getting really sick. But if you get a booster and have circulating antibodies when you get infected, they will eliminate the infection before you have a chance to spread.
Basically, every time you get vaxxed or get infected, it prompts your body to create more antibodies, and every time your body gets better and faster at doing so. So they expect that people who get vaxxed and then get a breakthrough infection, that infection is like a booster, except of course there is the risk that the infection may still be powerful enough to do damage in a small percentage of people.
The confounding factor is the high percentage of unvaxxed people. They said the possibility of more dangerous variants emerging as the unvaxxed continue to incubate the virus makes boosters to provide ex"ftra protection for the vaxxed an even better idea.
The other point that stuck with me was that covid tests are measuring viral RNA load in the nose, but they don't believe viral RNA load is a good way to measure transmissibility. In a vaxxed person, that RNA being measured could be in deactivated virus, not contagious viral particles. And the viral RNA load declines much more rapidly in a vaxxed person. They think time will show that vaxxed people are much less infectious and only for a short period of time, and that a vaxxed person infecting another vaxxed person is not much of a danger.
I think they touched on the case of Israel, but I don't remember what they be said. It doesn't seem from the stuff I do remember that they feel it is an accurate picture of vaccine effectiveness though.
A big focus on every episode of TWIV now is that almost all widely available vaccines do NOT stop infection, they prevent illness and greatly reduce spread. Their almost total effectiveness is reached because of herd immunity. If we want to stop having to worry about COVID-19, we need more people vaxxed asap. Which is a sobering thought. I will happily get a booster whenever it's recommended until more people come around.
I don't follow this stuff as closely as you do, and obviously don't want to argue with the actual experts you listened to (although I'm curious what "focused on covid" actually means -- have they been doing research on covid, or just talking about it on podcasts?) -- but, anyway, the impression I had in the discussions I've seen about the possible need for boosters was that epidemiologists and public health officials, as well as researchers following the early-vaccinated subjects from the clinical trials, were seeing a falling efficacy in terms of preventing infections and, in the face of the delta variant, a falling efficacy in terms of preventing varying degrees of symptomatic cases. I don't recall hearing or reading any suggestion that experts considering the need for boosters were doing so based on antibody levels, which as you say and which, even with my limited knowledge, I knew was to be expected and not a cause for concern.
Pertaining to TWIV, they are all virologists. The two guests they had in this episode do work on CoVid. They regularly have guests who work on this virus. Every week he hosts an infectious disease doc who updates everyone on the clinical aspects of Covid. These episodes generally drop on Saturdays I believe.
The episode Kimny discussed was a great one. I'm currently getting caught up now that I'm commuting again.
Interestingly, it seems at least in my limited exposure to the field, that many of the specialists currently all in on covid-19 were previously focused on HIV. Not sure if their is something the two viruses have in common or just the sudden global need for rapid answers. Now that I think about it, I may have heard that the mRNA vaccine technology had researchers hoping for an mRNA vaccine for HIV before covid-19 emerged and opened the door to grant money and study volunteers. Don't quote me in that though
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »So in the latest TWIV they interviewed Paul Bieniasz and Theodora Hatziiouannou, virologists who are renowned for working on HIV but obviously right now are focused on covid. This one was really fascinating and I'll probably listen to it again because it was more conversational and I def missed some stuff. Anyway...
They noted that declining antibodies months after vaxx is normal. The point of vaxx is not to have permanently circulating antibodies but for your body to know how to make the antibodies. They said that if your goal is just to reduce hospitalizations, then skip boosters and make sure everyone gets their two shots, but if your goal is to reduce transmission, boosters are a good idea. If I'm understanding correctly, they were saying that if you get the standard dose and 8 months later you don't have antibodies, you may become infected and be contagious for a short time before your body creates antibodies to keep you from getting really sick. But if you get a booster and have circulating antibodies when you get infected, they will eliminate the infection before you have a chance to spread.
Basically, every time you get vaxxed or get infected, it prompts your body to create more antibodies, and every time your body gets better and faster at doing so. So they expect that people who get vaxxed and then get a breakthrough infection, that infection is like a booster, except of course there is the risk that the infection may still be powerful enough to do damage in a small percentage of people.
The confounding factor is the high percentage of unvaxxed people. They said the possibility of more dangerous variants emerging as the unvaxxed continue to incubate the virus makes boosters to provide ex"ftra protection for the vaxxed an even better idea.
The other point that stuck with me was that covid tests are measuring viral RNA load in the nose, but they don't believe viral RNA load is a good way to measure transmissibility. In a vaxxed person, that RNA being measured could be in deactivated virus, not contagious viral particles. And the viral RNA load declines much more rapidly in a vaxxed person. They think time will show that vaxxed people are much less infectious and only for a short period of time, and that a vaxxed person infecting another vaxxed person is not much of a danger.
I think they touched on the case of Israel, but I don't remember what they be said. It doesn't seem from the stuff I do remember that they feel it is an accurate picture of vaccine effectiveness though.
A big focus on every episode of TWIV now is that almost all widely available vaccines do NOT stop infection, they prevent illness and greatly reduce spread. Their almost total effectiveness is reached because of herd immunity. If we want to stop having to worry about COVID-19, we need more people vaxxed asap. Which is a sobering thought. I will happily get a booster whenever it's recommended until more people come around.
I don't follow this stuff as closely as you do, and obviously don't want to argue with the actual experts you listened to (although I'm curious what "focused on covid" actually means -- have they been doing research on covid, or just talking about it on podcasts?) -- but, anyway, the impression I had in the discussions I've seen about the possible need for boosters was that epidemiologists and public health officials, as well as researchers following the early-vaccinated subjects from the clinical trials, were seeing a falling efficacy in terms of preventing infections and, in the face of the delta variant, a falling efficacy in terms of preventing varying degrees of symptomatic cases. I don't recall hearing or reading any suggestion that experts considering the need for boosters were doing so based on antibody levels, which as you say and which, even with my limited knowledge, I knew was to be expected and not a cause for concern.
Pertaining to TWIV, they are all virologists. The two guests they had in this episode do work on CoVid. They regularly have guests who work on this virus. Every week he hosts an infectious disease doc who updates everyone on the clinical aspects of Covid. These episodes generally drop on Saturdays I believe.
The episode Kimny discussed was a great one. I'm currently getting caught up now that I'm commuting again.
Interestingly, it seems at least in my limited exposure to the field, that many of the specialists currently all in on covid-19 were previously focused on HIV. Not sure if their is something the two viruses have in common or just the sudden global need for rapid answers. Now that I think about it, I may have heard that the mRNA vaccine technology had researchers hoping for an mRNA vaccine for HIV before covid-19 emerged and opened the door to grant money and study volunteers. Don't quote me in that though
Also - and this is just a suspicion - I think HIV may have been one of the more interesting, high-value research targets among virologists before this pandemic, so probably many working on that pre-Covid. HIV's been a tough and therefore interesting challenge, with many lives affected; and much has been learned and developed.
At risk of feeding the conspiracy theorists, I also wonder if - in the US at least - the relatively close attention to HIV within NIH, FDA, etc., over the last few decades, may've strengthened communication channels and relationships between virologists/administrators in the governmental health institutions, and the HIV researchers, via grant reviews, conferences, etc., etc.3 -
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/new-covid-variant-detected-in-south-africa-most-mutated-variant-so-far-678011
Someday maybe the world will be vaccinated so Covid-19 mutations slowly stops happening.8 -
I have friends who specifically drove to the next state for all their shopping during the first COVID peak because no masks were required at that time. Couple months later they hosted a large outdoor baby shower at which our state still required masks for outdoor gatherings. I was one of the few following the state requirement. Even the mother-to-be an NP was maskless and going around greeting all the fellow maskless guests. This surprised even me.10
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Area HS, central IL, going to full remote learning today due to Covid cases. Didn't take long, opening day was 2 weeks ago.
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LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »
Going to another state every time you want a coffee at a Cafe or items from the supermarket seems a tad impractical.
Sure. For many. However, I live in a historically democratic state and live about 8 miles from a republican state. So there is that! Summer 2020 looked very different just 8 miles away.
In some cases, it's not about moving states. There are cities that have one set of rules and another very nearby that has a different set. If a person is against wearing a mask to shop, it's very easy to drive a few more miles to go to a location without the rule.
Those people who reject wearing masks would be very much less likely to visit a place for vacation with a mask mandate.
That goes both ways. Had I not had so much non-refundable money invested in my vacation to Florida in late July, I would have cancelled the trip and gone elsewhere. When we booked it, things were very much looking on the up...by the time the trip occurred it was a *kitten* show down there.10 -
In other news, both of my kids tested negative. Have to say I was a little surprised...my youngest was pretty sick and just kept getting sicker by the day for about 4 days straight before he started to turn the corner over this past weekend.19
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cwolfman13 wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »
Going to another state every time you want a coffee at a Cafe or items from the supermarket seems a tad impractical.
Sure. For many. However, I live in a historically democratic state and live about 8 miles from a republican state. So there is that! Summer 2020 looked very different just 8 miles away.
In some cases, it's not about moving states. There are cities that have one set of rules and another very nearby that has a different set. If a person is against wearing a mask to shop, it's very easy to drive a few more miles to go to a location without the rule.
Those people who reject wearing masks would be very much less likely to visit a place for vacation with a mask mandate.
That goes both ways. Had I not had so much non-refundable money invested in my vacation to Florida in late July, I would have cancelled the trip and gone elsewhere. When we booked it, things were very much looking on the up...by the time the trip occurred it was a *kitten* show down there.
We have a Florida vacation scheduled for late September with another vaccinated couple. We have a condo on the beach snd and our purpose in going is to hang on the beach. If situation warrents it can do very well without going out to restaurants etc.12 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »Area HS, central IL, going to full remote learning today due to Covid cases. Didn't take long, opening day was 2 weeks ago.
we start next week. my son is starting high school (fully vaccinated). he did SO poorly in virtual. went from A/B to failing math and barely passing everything else. We live in a deep red area, and I know most of these kids nor their parents are likely vaccinated. Masks are mandated in schools, so, we at least have that, i guess.
im not religious so i dont pray but im really hoping things dont go too FUBAR this year and that they manage to stay in school...12 -
https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU
UK has decided the Pandemic is past and will stop testing people not seeking medical treatment. Germany stops paying for Covid-19 testing in October since all humans will have Covid-19 sooner or later and that herd immunity is a medical myth.4 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU
UK has decided the Pandemic is past and will stop testing people not seeking medical treatment. Germany stops paying for Covid-19 testing in October since all humans will have Covid-19 sooner or later and that herd immunity is a medical myth.
Disagreeing with their decision, not with your post (just clarifying my disagree there LOL)4 -
callsitlikeiseeit wrote: »GaleHawkins wrote: »https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU
UK has decided the Pandemic is past and will stop testing people not seeking medical treatment. Germany stops paying for Covid-19 testing in October since all humans will have Covid-19 sooner or later and that herd immunity is a medical myth.
Disagreeing with their decision, not with your post (just clarifying my disagree there LOL)
I never thought it would be so easy to stop a pandemic by calling it in an endemic.
While medically I can understand what they're saying what is sad is all these nations that do not have access to vaccine and it will take many of them out while they're building natural immunity.
I wonder if this means restrictions and mask mandates are over?0 -
GaleHawkins wrote: »https://youtu.be/JhRb5hnTseU
UK has decided the Pandemic is past and will stop testing people not seeking medical treatment. Germany stops paying for Covid-19 testing in October since all humans will have Covid-19 sooner or later and that herd immunity is a medical myth.
My understanding was that Germany will stop offering free rapid tests to everyone in a bid to encourage wider vaccination.
The logic is, I thought, that by October everyone would have the possibility to be vaccinated so after that point, those who voluntarily choose not to get the vaccine will need to pay for tests when a negative test or vaccine certificate is required to attend an event or venue. People who cannot be vaccinated e.g. for medical reasons could still be tested for free, as well as those who are tested due to having symptoms or for contact tracing rather than to gain access to an event.13 -
If we are all now bound to get it what on earth have the last 18 months been all about in the UK.5
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Interesting about limiting testing use. I've wondered how long insurance would cover asymptomatic testing. There are essential situations, e.g. known close exposure to a teacher or health care worker or other essential worker who could perpetuate asymptomatic spread if not caught prophylactically.
Then there are purely recreational uses. E.g. my college age daughter's living group of 8 probably once/month scheduled a purely discretionary outing, usually gathering with one other living group of the same size or travelling as a group to one of the roommate's parents' homes. In either case, they all tested before the event and again 5 days after. They made the before and after testing appointments at the same time upon scheduling whatever it was they planned to do. It was just to keep each other and whoever they were visiting safe.
On one such occasion, one person in DD's living group tested positive after getting together with the other living group. (They found out after getting together that one person in the other group had an unwitting exposure several days before.) It was a little frantic for a couple days keeping everyone apart until they could get PCR results. Amazingly, after one roommate tested positive, the university contact tracers stepped in and got PCR results for the other roommates in about 3 hours. Maddeningly, the university wanted the negative girls to quarantine together with the sick girl. The parents felt otherwise. The one sick girl stayed in the apartment and the others drove separately to one of the roommate's parent's second homes to wait out the quarantine period. They tested a couple times during the wait, too. In the end, only 1 of the 8 got sick from that encounter. Ok, really long anecdote, but on the one hand the testing was purely recreational. I could see insurance declining that sort of thing in the future. I mean, they could have, hypothetically, just isolated for a whole year. On the other hand, the prophylactic testing did contain the spread. The same actions would have resulted in more infection if not for having testing as a tool. I'm really glad they had that access.2 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »
Going to another state every time you want a coffee at a Cafe or items from the supermarket seems a tad impractical.
Sure. For many. However, I live in a historically democratic state and live about 8 miles from a republican state. So there is that! Summer 2020 looked very different just 8 miles away.
In some cases, it's not about moving states. There are cities that have one set of rules and another very nearby that has a different set. If a person is against wearing a mask to shop, it's very easy to drive a few more miles to go to a location without the rule.
Those people who reject wearing masks would be very much less likely to visit a place for vacation with a mask mandate.
That goes both ways. Had I not had so much non-refundable money invested in my vacation to Florida in late July, I would have cancelled the trip and gone elsewhere. When we booked it, things were very much looking on the up...by the time the trip occurred it was a *kitten* show down there.
We have a Florida vacation scheduled for late September with another vaccinated couple. We have a condo on the beach snd and our purpose in going is to hang on the beach. If situation warrents it can do very well without going out to restaurants etc.
The only time we really felt overly "exposed" was in the evenings in Key West walking around upper Duvall after sunset. If that was low season, I can't imagine high season. Whole street just jam packed with people. We were staying on the southern side and it was much quieter and the majority of our activities were outside.
September should be nice...it was hot AF at the end of July.2 -
If we are all now bound to get it what on earth have the last 18 months been all about in the UK.
Until the data came in from Israel it was thought that the virus was something that man could control.
Now we understand that we will continue to get covid-19 over and over into the future like other types of flu.
The positive seems to be every time we get it again it'll be the same thing as getting a booster.
We should be hearing from North and South America as well as Asia on the subject in the coming weeks.2 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »Theoldguy1 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »paperpudding wrote: »LiveOnceBeHappy wrote: »
Going to another state every time you want a coffee at a Cafe or items from the supermarket seems a tad impractical.
Sure. For many. However, I live in a historically democratic state and live about 8 miles from a republican state. So there is that! Summer 2020 looked very different just 8 miles away.
In some cases, it's not about moving states. There are cities that have one set of rules and another very nearby that has a different set. If a person is against wearing a mask to shop, it's very easy to drive a few more miles to go to a location without the rule.
Those people who reject wearing masks would be very much less likely to visit a place for vacation with a mask mandate.
That goes both ways. Had I not had so much non-refundable money invested in my vacation to Florida in late July, I would have cancelled the trip and gone elsewhere. When we booked it, things were very much looking on the up...by the time the trip occurred it was a *kitten* show down there.
We have a Florida vacation scheduled for late September with another vaccinated couple. We have a condo on the beach snd and our purpose in going is to hang on the beach. If situation warrents it can do very well without going out to restaurants etc.
The only time we really felt overly "exposed" was in the evenings in Key West walking around upper Duvall after sunset. If that was low season, I can't imagine high season. Whole street just jam packed with people. We were staying on the southern side and it was much quieter and the majority of our activities were outside.
September should be nice...it was hot AF at the end of July.
We're in the Panhandle, Destin/Ft Walton Beach area, things are pretty spread out there, plus low season. Highs supposed to be around 84 when we're there. Just hope for everyone's sake no hurricanes.1 -
We all (in the US and Canada and Europe, etc) have the ability to be vaxxed, and the only places where people are likely to be hospitalized in large numbers are those where they are voluntarily choosing not to be vaxxed. We also should soon have the option to have a booster. So I don't think negatively of Germany at all.4
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