Coronavirus prep
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bmeadows380 wrote: »
I do wonder if the hope that warmer weather will slow this thing down is too optimistic. My understanding is that this thing is closer to the common cold than it is to the flu, right? And I know that there are strains of the cold virus that lives just fine in hot temperatures - I've had a few summer colds in my lifetime.
Considering that it is summer/autumn in half of the world and the virus is spreading through those countries as well, I don't think that the weather has anything to do with it. Australia is just going into Autumn, so the virus spread here in Summer, and we have three confirmed deaths so far. We have schools closed down because people travelled in from overseas and didn't self-quarantine as they were instructed. And we have that stupid panic-buying paranoia throughout the country too - which is probably more dangerous than the virus itself.
I think the rest of the world is just about to realise how much we all rely on imports from China. I can only hope that causes a shift towards a more local-sourced attitude for shoppers, even once everything is back to normal.6 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »More on the St. Louis student (from the Chi Trib):
"Health officials in Illinois and Missouri are trying to track down who came into close contact with a St. Louis woman who tested positive for the coronavirus after flying into O’Hare International Airport, staying with a friend here, then taking an Amtrak train to her home last week.
The woman, in her 20s, flew into O’Hare on Monday and took an Amtrak train to St. Louis on Wednesday, according to Missouri and St. Louis County officials. Officials did not know where she stayed in the Chicago area, or how she got to Union Station to board the Amtrak 303 train....
Meanwhile, Amtrak issued a statement saying the rail service is “working in close contact with public health and emergency management teams to have the best available information to be able to share with our customers and employees who might be affected.”
Amtrak said it was notifying passengers and employees who may have been on the same train. “As a precaution, we have taken the train out of service for comprehensive cleaning and disinfection, and are also working to do a thorough disinfection of the Chicago and St. Louis stations,” the statement said."
Given the number of people who were brought home from programs in Italy, it seems like it would make sense to test them immediately (but we seem to not have enough tests for that). Locally, I know Loyola U brought home students who were studying in Rome, and so did various other local schools and U of I. And as mentioned earlier, one of the known cases in Chicago is a student who was brought home from a Vanderbilt (in Nashville) study abroad program in Italy.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-coronavirus-illinois-universities-20200301-qjd35y5e7zconarnyqrwuw6njq-story.html
AmTrak has a station a block away from where I live and that train goes through here (the train goes North-South from Chicago to New Orleans). Should I panic yet?!
If your daily routine includes hanging around the station and hugging randos getting off of the City of New Orleans then it might be OK to panic, otherwise you're probably still OK.
"Hugging on the City of New Orleans
Illinois Central, Monday morning rail..."
(I've always liked that the song mentions Kankakee.)
Since you're in Chi, I assume you know it was Steve Goodman, not Arlo Guthrie, and a real trip report.
Huge fan of Steve Goodman, but the sung version I think of is Willie Nelson, not Arlo.2 -
If anyone has trouble locating toilet paper, how about cleaning your closets of clothes that you don't intend to wear again & cut them into pieces, as a temporary replacement but be mindful, not to drop them into the toilet but the trash instead?1
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I haven't noticed any shortage of TP, but better than wasting old clothes, I have tons of mailings from political candidates that could be repurposed. Bloomberg alone (yeah, I know he's now out) is a huge supply and if I included local candidates I'd be great, and our primary isn't 'til next week (Ann, yours ends a whole week earlier, so I am kind of jealous, even if it would be nice to matter more than we normally do).
Steve Goodman song about something that is weirdly still an issue:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF3q7o8Yjrg
https://blockclubchicago.org/2018/09/12/lincoln-towing-gets-license-revoked-by-state-regulators/
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Truly, I'm at zero personal stress over this, so far.
That's admirable, and I mean that sincerely.
For some reason I'm overreacting compared to my normal type of response. A friend asked me where I was 1-10, and I said 6 - only 1 (vs. 0) about personal physical danger (although I find I am way more conscious of the fact I constantly touch my face and of all the other contact I have on the L, my most likely infection vector), more like 4 for my concern about high risk people (before she died 2 years ago my mom was in assisted living in WA state, which is probably making some of this hit home), and then the stock market has been freaking me out about the economy tanking (although I may refi to my own benefit even though I think the reduced interest rates are getting insane and irresponsible).5 -
I'd not, use mail because of 1: paper cuts {I don't wanna create open wounds, that especially feces might get into whilst wiping}, 2: if glossy, not absorbent or flexible enough to conform to bodily curves, waste might drip and/or fall via it & 3: plausible ink transfer.
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Truly, I'm at zero personal stress over this, so far.
That's admirable, and I mean that sincerely.
For some reason I'm overreacting compared to my normal type of response. A friend asked me where I was 1-10, and I said 6 - only 1 (vs. 0) about personal physical danger (although I find I am way more conscious of the fact I constantly touch my face and of all the other contact I have on the L, my most likely infection vector), more like 4 for my concern about high risk people (before she died 2 years ago my mom was in assisted living in WA state, which is probably making some of this hit home), and then the stock market has been freaking me out about the economy tanking (although I may refi to my own benefit even though I think the reduced interest rates are getting insane and irresponsible).
I’m more concerned about a severe global recession than the actual virus. Although my anxiety over the virus is about. 4 on a 1-10 scale. I live in a rural part of CA that hasn’t seen any cases yet, but we get a lot of visitors from the Bay Area, so only a matter of time. I am somewhat anxious about an upcoming trip to Carlsbad, where my sister want to go out partying.3 -
TwistedSassette wrote: »bmeadows380 wrote: »
I do wonder if the hope that warmer weather will slow this thing down is too optimistic. My understanding is that this thing is closer to the common cold than it is to the flu, right? And I know that there are strains of the cold virus that lives just fine in hot temperatures - I've had a few summer colds in my lifetime.
Considering that it is summer/autumn in half of the world and the virus is spreading through those countries as well, I don't think that the weather has anything to do with it. Australia is just going into Autumn, so the virus spread here in Summer, and we have three confirmed deaths so far. We have schools closed down because people travelled in from overseas and didn't self-quarantine as they were instructed. And we have that stupid panic-buying paranoia throughout the country too - which is probably more dangerous than the virus itself.
I think the rest of the world is just about to realise how much we all rely on imports from China. I can only hope that causes a shift towards a more local-sourced attitude for shoppers, even once everything is back to normal.
You have to remember that the vast majority of confirmed cases in Australia are from people that contracted it overseas and brought it back with them. There have only been a few cases of person to person spread on Australian soil. Those countries experiencing the most cases are all just leaving their winter. Time will tell on whether the northern hemisphere starts experiencing less and the southern hemisphere more as the season change.2 -
Reported that Italy is extending the travel restrictions to the whole country.
Not only travel restrictions--we're for all intents and purposes in quarantine. Yes, that's the entire country. No one is supposed to leave their home unless it's absolutely necessary. One can go to work, grocery shop, go to medical appointments, etc. The list is limited. The military will be called in. We have 22 prisons where the inmates are rioting and burning. They want to be set free. I used to believe that this is just another flu---it is not. News this morning from Northern Italy is that the virus is also targeting the 26-40 age group. Another myth shot down. It could be morphing.16 -
snowflake954 wrote: »I wrote the part about the government because they're trying to contain the northern outbreak by extending the quarantine. People found out about it late at night and those that live in the rest of Italy, especially college students, quickly packed up and flooded the train stations in the middle of the night and left Milan. They can be contagious and may spread the virus far and wide. Italians are used to doing what they want--the rules are for others, so now to see what happens.
I had to think of this when I saw the news of the nation wide lock down in Italy this morning.2 -
NYS now has the highest number of Coronavirus patients... it's ok though cause we have our own sanitizer now :laugh:
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snickerscharlie wrote: »
Then you won't get it again, guaranteed, eh?
Recently semi-diagnosed with maybe-COPD. Loving the timing wrt possible pneumonia-causing virus. Thanks, ironic universe! 🙄
Not that worried, really: Just the 🙄 .
I just got my pneumococcal vaccine injection at my check-up last month. Would this be of benefit to you? Here in Canada, it's recommended (and free of charge) for everyone over 65.0 -
We recorded our first death in Canada yesterday.
A man in his 80's at a care home facility in North Vancouver.
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snowflake954 wrote: »Reported that Italy is extending the travel restrictions to the whole country.
Not only travel restrictions--we're for all intents and purposes in quarantine. Yes, that's the entire country. No one is supposed to leave their home unless it's absolutely necessary. One can go to work, grocery shop, go to medical appointments, etc. The list is limited. The military will be called in. We have 22 prisons where the inmates are rioting and burning. They want to be set free. I used to believe that this is just another flu---it is not. News this morning from Northern Italy is that the virus is also targeting the 26-40 age group. Another myth shot down. It could be morphing.
I hope it gets better soon. I have some indoor rower friends in Italy that are on lockdown as well. They report similar things (and some worse). I honestly think if you see some younger folks getting it, it might help in the long run. So far, most of the attitude of younger folks I've spoken to is, "oh well, doesn't affect me, so carry on!".
If everyone takes a bit more cautious attitude, it helps the entire whole. One of my Italian friends wrote a very impassioned note not to take this lightly, like they did for a while.
They are talking a lot more on the news the tale of two cities during the Spanish Flu. One city, St Louis, took the early warnings and pretty much worked hard on social distancing. Philly ignored the warnings and had a lot more deaths. History teaches us lessons. Personally, I would like to see more consistent messaging on it in this regard.
My wife was talking about going to the gym (we're in Tucson). We've had our first confirmed cases. Without testing, if you have several confirmed cases, it's likely there's several 100 out there and spreading quickly. We won't know until there are millions of test kits how many have it.
Just in the news this morning. "Patient 1" in Italy was released from ICU, a small win for Italy. Patient 1 was found in the second to last week of February. That's how fast it spread in Italy. Two weeks before they knew it and it was already beyond containment into mitigation.5 -
Explication of mitigation:
Right now best knowledge is 80% of people have mild illness 15% have more significant illnesses required some medical care and 5% have very severe life threatening illnesses requiring things like respirators for a few week in order to live.
If a metro area only has X respirators and if the whole population that is going to get sick would result in 5x people being in the grpup that needs respirators if they all get sick at once many more people die from lack of respiration help then if they get sick over say 6 months and can all be treated. And 6 times as many people can use those respirators.9 -
Explication of mitigation:
Right now best knowledge is 80% of people have mild illness 15% have more significant illnesses required some medical care and 5% have very severe life threatening illnesses requiring things like respirators for a few week in order to live.
If a metro area only has X respirators and if the whole population that is going to get sick would result in 5x people being in the grpup that needs respirators if they all get sick at once many more people die from lack of respiration help then if they get sick over say 6 months and can all be treated. And 6 times as many people can use those respirators.
That's what one friend said in Italy which was sobering. It has been determined we only have enough Intubation equipment to treat a "moderate" breakout. Italy's is beyond moderate already. They are literally making hard decisions of who to Intubate and who to pray for. They don't have enough respiratory equipment for everyone (and we don't have close to enough in the US either, so it has nothing to do with socialized medicine). That's why taking this serious is so important now. Not later. We can't even get enough masks or sanitizer or test kits. Imagine when we realize (and I hope we don't get there), we don't have enough hospital beds or respiratory equipment.7 -
I was happy to see a pretty crowded gym this morning. It is nice to see people continuing on with their lives and their goals.
I have some upcoming travel plans that I really do not wish to cancel. However I am taking a beat to reconsider from a professional standpoint. It could hurt our careers if we get trapped somewhere and while I answer to myself my wife would have to answer to her company who may see this as unnecessarily inviting trouble. It would impact me too because I would miss deadlines but I am never worried about waves of downsizing. It sucks to even be thinking of cancelling. However, as of right now I am still going. I will make a final choice soon.8 -
snowflake954 wrote: »Reported that Italy is extending the travel restrictions to the whole country.
Not only travel restrictions--we're for all intents and purposes in quarantine. Yes, that's the entire country. No one is supposed to leave their home unless it's absolutely necessary. One can go to work, grocery shop, go to medical appointments, etc. The list is limited. The military will be called in. We have 22 prisons where the inmates are rioting and burning. They want to be set free. I used to believe that this is just another flu---it is not. News this morning from Northern Italy is that the virus is also targeting the 26-40 age group. Another myth shot down. It could be morphing.
I have a colleague from Wuhan, who reports her parents are not allowed outside at all. All grocery shopping must be done online with cashless transactions. Her mother spends a lot of time on the phone helping older people who don't know how to order online. She worries that there seems to be increased tension between her parents because of the strain of being cooped up together in a small flat. The virus might be the thing that pushes them to divorce.16 -
Another perspective from Italy:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=532587150786846&id=209790553066509
And thank you, @snowflake954 for your firsthand accounts. It's very enlightening and gives those of us where it's just ramping a lot to think about.7 -
sorry - computer hiccupped and double-posted0
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I live in a very small town in a pretty rural county, which is to my advantage, but we have a lot of tourists and temporary vacationers here on this end of the county because there are a lot of luxury 2nd homes here owned by people from the DC area and other areas. So there's opportunity for it to get into this area. Not to mention the number of people who are truckers and are driving all over the country and returning here on the weekends. It has me thinking of my grandparents - my dad's parents are both still living and are 90 and 88; my moms mother is 81. They all still live at home but do have their health issues. My dad's mom has mobility problems and doesn't go anywhere except to the doctor's, and my grandfather tends to stick close to home for her sake, which keeps them fairly isolated normally, and I'm starting to be very thankful for that! My mother's mom lives in a very rural community and also tends to keep to herself though she gets out more than my other set of grandparents.
It has already made me more aware when I go into a public place, such as the local Wendy's yesterday: I was looking at the crowds in the store, not to mention the people behind the counter preparing the food, and just wondering how many of them were ill or carriers of something, and how clean could the place really be? Especially during a lunch rush, when they are extremely busy. How often do they truly take time to clean up their work stations in the back? Or go out into the lobby and wipe tables down? Are they using a clean rag each time, or just keep using the same rag dipped in the same container of sanitizer?
Another source that people don't think about is cash money - cash dollars can be home to all kinds of illnesses. It's actually gotten me to thinking about my wallet and what's inside; I've never thought about wiping my credit and debit cards down, or making sure my wallet is clean. And yet I pull those cards out to pay for all sorts of things from stores to restaurants to gas, after touching all sorts of things first. And then I just stick them back into my wallet until I need them next. So I may go to the restroom when I get to the restaurant and wash my hands thoroughly, but then if I go and pay for my order as we do at fast food restaurants, then I'm touching cash or my debit card for the transaction and recontaminating my hands.
When you really start to think about it, you start to realize just how things like this spread so quickly!7 -
Explication of mitigation:
Right now best knowledge is 80% of people have mild illness 15% have more significant illnesses required some medical care and 5% have very severe life threatening illnesses requiring things like respirators for a few week in order to live.
If a metro area only has X respirators and if the whole population that is going to get sick would result in 5x people being in the grpup that needs respirators if they all get sick at once many more people die from lack of respiration help then if they get sick over say 6 months and can all be treated. And 6 times as many people can use those respirators.
Italy's death rate seems much higher, around 5% last I heard. My guess would be that's why. They literally don't have enough equipment to help all in need. We will be at that critical juncture very soon, especially if certain messaging is, "hey, it's not that serious...".
https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html
I live in an area where the age demographic is literally around 70. If I get that sick that I need intubation (or my wife), they will chose me or her over someone else in need (likely). I'd rather not go out in public and force that decision. Most here are like me already and being smart about it. The young, not so much.
Here's the good potential news. If we had consistent messaging now, because I think it will lessen temporarily over the Summer, we could be way more prepared in the Fall. But that takes monumental effort and leadership, neither of which I'm confident in currently.3 -
I did wash all my credit cards.
And then I take out the one I want to use before I go in the store. Then I put it back in my pocket and wash it again before it goes back in my wallet. I'm wearing gloves when I'm out and then washing them when I get home.
I would not eat in a restaurant right now. I worked in restaurants for years. You don't want to know.
SO many ways to touch the wrong thing, even if being careful.
The packaging on stuff - yogurt, eggs, bread, pasta, rice, oatmeal. The skins of fresh fruits and vegetables.
There is virtually no way to be completely protected. Especially since they're saying it lives for days on surfaces. Even though I'm trying really hard to practice good hygiene - I'm not going to be able to keep completely safe. It's definitely worrying. More worrying than it was on page one of this thread.
Please take this seriously.7 -
Just yesterday I cut into a fresh head of cabbage that I had washed. I immediately thought - "Hm, maybe I should have taken off a couple layers of leaves."3
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Went to pub trivia last night and the place was packed as usual. Wisconsin seems to be in non-panic mode right now. Only one case reported. There is plenty of water and TP on the shelves (although hand sanitizer is sold out). We had a couple of snowstorm false alarms so I think many are either well stocked still or being practical.
So far the only way it has affected me is indirectly. I am having a family dinner on Saturday. My niece was supposed to set up a big Wisconsin Cheese display at the big South by Southwest Festival in Austin, TX but the entire festival was cancelled by the city so she will be able to make the dinner.0 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »Explication of mitigation:
Right now best knowledge is 80% of people have mild illness 15% have more significant illnesses required some medical care and 5% have very severe life threatening illnesses requiring things like respirators for a few week in order to live.
If a metro area only has X respirators and if the whole population that is going to get sick would result in 5x people being in the grpup that needs respirators if they all get sick at once many more people die from lack of respiration help then if they get sick over say 6 months and can all be treated. And 6 times as many people can use those respirators.
That's what one friend said in Italy which was sobering. It has been determined we only have enough Intubation equipment to treat a "moderate" breakout. Italy's is beyond moderate already. They are literally making hard decisions of who to Intubate and who to pray for. They don't have enough respiratory equipment for everyone (and we don't have close to enough in the US either, so it has nothing to do with socialized medicine). That's why taking this serious is so important now. Not later. We can't even get enough masks or sanitizer or test kits. Imagine when we realize (and I hope we don't get there), we don't have enough hospital beds or respiratory equipment.
I went back to page one of this thread. You were correct then and now. What a difference a few days can make.
The biggest takeaway for me is that we can take nothing or anyone for granted. Humility is not overrated.
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I think the rate of smoking in certain countries may be strongly correlated to the severity of outbreaks and the progression of more serious cases. It sounds like having having pre-existing lung damage makes it easier for the disease to progress into the lower respiratory tracts and lungs causing the more serious cases. China and Italy have higher rates of smoking than the US. If that is true, the US may see slower spread in the community and fewer severe cases. I wonder if there has been enough data collected at this point to compare the risks between smokers and non-smokers.9
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I think the rate of smoking in certain countries may be strongly correlated to the severity of outbreaks and the progression of more serious cases. It sounds like having having pre-existing lung damage makes it easier for the disease to progress into the lower respiratory tracts and lungs causing the more serious cases. China and Italy have higher rates of smoking than the US. If that is true, the US may see slower spread in the community and fewer severe cases. I wonder if there has been enough data collected at this point to compare the risks between smokers and non-smokers.
I saw something about the Chinese cases having a much higher death rate for men than women and speculating that that was because smoking is very common for Chinese men and not Chinese women, but I don't know if any of that has actually proved to be true, or what we now know about the death rate. This was earlier so things could have changed.3 -
We have the first confirmed case in my town. A daycare worker. The next county over has a fire station that is under quarantine, because they attended to a teacher at a middle school who fainted on the job. The teacher tested positive in the hospital and that entire county's school system is shut down today.2
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Our state only has 1 confirmed case so far. Found out late last night (Mon) that the University in town successfully recalled 18 study-abroad students (Sun morning). That's nice. All 18 were in Italy, and they're now quarantined in one of the dormitories.
This is just the students in Italy. 0
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