Coronavirus prep
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I don't think it's fair to say we "blew through quicker game" when other countries majorly locked down and now are still having a massive Covid upswing.
There's also no way of knowing what the actual death % rate is as I'm sure that there are many more cases of Covid than have been reported from people with little to no symptoms. Is it sad that people are dying? Absolutely. But I don't think that it's unreasonable that people are unhappy with the idea that is just now getting floated around that we will be doing this for another year. We are being told in one breath that we should give up holidays this year so that we can do them next year and then also being told well....a vaccine will be available but you will still have to social distance and wear a mask for another year at least (I've seen articles where they are saying it'll be late 2021 or even 2022 before we get back to normalcy...didn't Fauci say that recently?). That for many is unacceptable - not just economically (though that's a huge issue) but mentally as well. The rise of depression, anxiety, suicide, abuse, drug and alcohol abuse have already risen and if we can't get back to "normal" soon there's going to be a huge issue. Is it worth isolating and following covid restrictions if it leads to a rise in deaths due to mental health issues? Isn't the point to reduce deaths or long term effects?
People, especially on this forum and vocally on all social media, are so concerned with preventing Covid deaths that they are forgetting that there's big risks and issues with other health issues. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the cure can not be worse than the disease and we have already gone past that point where it's worse for many people.5 -
janejellyroll wrote: »SummerSkier wrote: »I was looking thru the posts here and it seems like we know so little about this virus even after a year.
One thing that bothers me is folks saying that the vaccine will GIVE you the virus so you will be contagious, I don't think that is the way it works. You might feel a little ill for 24-48 hrs - which is how the shingles shot effected me, but I don't think I was contagious for shingles after I had the shot. Just as I don't think the flu shot gives you the flu and you are contagious or the tetanus shot gives you tetanus. etc... I realize that this is a brand new type RNA of vaccine but I am pretty sure that no where is anyone saying you actually GET COVID from it.
Hope I am not wrong here.
My understanding is that there are two types of vaccines -- those that result in potential "shedding" of the live virus and those that don't. I don't believe we have yet been informed which category these two potential options fall in.
Even if you're shedding the virus, it wouldn't be accurate to say you "got" the disease in question. It would just mean you would need to be cautious, like people had to be careful back when they gave the live polio vaccine prior to 2000. People who received the live vaccine didn't "get polio," but vaccine-derived polio (someone getting it from someone who had received a live vaccination) was a thing, although rare.
If you go back a page or 2, I think it was here that there was an article posted yesterday from the Moderna CEO explaining that their vaccine allows for shedding of the virus.3 -
I don't think it's fair to say we "blew through quicker game" when other countries majorly locked down and now are still having a massive Covid upswing.
There's also no way of knowing what the actual death % rate is as I'm sure that there are many more cases of Covid than have been reported from people with little to no symptoms. Is it sad that people are dying? Absolutely. But I don't think that it's unreasonable that people are unhappy with the idea that is just now getting floated around that we will be doing this for another year. We are being told in one breath that we should give up holidays this year so that we can do them next year and then also being told well....a vaccine will be available but you will still have to social distance and wear a mask for another year at least (I've seen articles where they are saying it'll be late 2021 or even 2022 before we get back to normalcy...didn't Fauci say that recently?). That for many is unacceptable - not just economically (though that's a huge issue) but mentally as well. The rise of depression, anxiety, suicide, abuse, drug and alcohol abuse have already risen and if we can't get back to "normal" soon there's going to be a huge issue. Is it worth isolating and following covid restrictions if it leads to a rise in deaths due to mental health issues? Isn't the point to reduce deaths or long term effects?
People, especially on this forum and vocally on all social media, are so concerned with preventing Covid deaths that they are forgetting that there's big risks and issues with other health issues. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the cure can not be worse than the disease and we have already gone past that point where it's worse for many people.
So...exactly what is your solution? I don't get your point. You seem to think a free-for-all is better? You say you're in health care. What exactly do you do? I'm trying hard to understand your position, but it's hard hon. There is no normal anymore whichever way you turn. We are in this soup together. I see a lot of arguing and complaining, but no solutions. Frankly, it's useless. Give us some good ideas to go forward and we'll discuss it.19 -
snowflake954 wrote: »I don't think it's fair to say we "blew through quicker game" when other countries majorly locked down and now are still having a massive Covid upswing.
There's also no way of knowing what the actual death % rate is as I'm sure that there are many more cases of Covid than have been reported from people with little to no symptoms. Is it sad that people are dying? Absolutely. But I don't think that it's unreasonable that people are unhappy with the idea that is just now getting floated around that we will be doing this for another year. We are being told in one breath that we should give up holidays this year so that we can do them next year and then also being told well....a vaccine will be available but you will still have to social distance and wear a mask for another year at least (I've seen articles where they are saying it'll be late 2021 or even 2022 before we get back to normalcy...didn't Fauci say that recently?). That for many is unacceptable - not just economically (though that's a huge issue) but mentally as well. The rise of depression, anxiety, suicide, abuse, drug and alcohol abuse have already risen and if we can't get back to "normal" soon there's going to be a huge issue. Is it worth isolating and following covid restrictions if it leads to a rise in deaths due to mental health issues? Isn't the point to reduce deaths or long term effects?
People, especially on this forum and vocally on all social media, are so concerned with preventing Covid deaths that they are forgetting that there's big risks and issues with other health issues. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the cure can not be worse than the disease and we have already gone past that point where it's worse for many people.
So...exactly what is your solution? I don't get your point. You seem to think a free-for-all is better? You say you're in health care. What exactly do you do? I'm trying hard to understand your position, but it's hard hon. There is no normal anymore whichever way you turn. We are in this soup together. I see a lot of arguing and complaining, but no solutions. Frankly, it's useless. Give us some good ideas to go forward and we'll discuss it.
Sweden, BTW, tried that and is now doing more like the rest of Europe. So much for the free for all...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/sweden-toughens-up-coronavirus-rules-as-infections-and-deaths-rise.html
Sweden is doing similar to what we are doing in the US. Until a vaccine comes out, other than telling people to go into large rooms and breathe on each other to see who dies, there's no "easy button" as @baconslave mentioned. And we can't do that.
IF the death rate was .03%, which it assuredly is not, simple math. If 100% of the US population had it, 95,000 would die. Around 10% to 15% have had it and we're over 260K, so .03% is a number that was thrown around by media channels to minimize (intentionally misleading) the fatalities.10 -
janejellyroll wrote: »If we can't get back to "life as usual" then what is the point of taking the vaccine? A vaccine that can have serious side effects at that. There's going to be a TON of pushback on this if true...I mean that's not what's been being told to us here in the US, until very recently, and there's going to be many who refuse to do so if we can't leave the masks and social distancing behind.
The "point" would be that an effective vaccine would result in fewer people dying, which seems like a great outcome even if we do have to wear a mask in some situations.
But we already have far fewer people dying without a vaccine. They have learned to treat it, what to do and what not to do and several medicines have been shown to help already. Overall the death toll was pretty low - wasn't it .03%? And now fewer people are dying, fewer vents are being utilized (at 1 of the large hospital chains in my state current vent usage is 37% and that's for everyone, not just Covid patients), and there are overall better outcomes. If life will stay the same whether we get the vaccine or not I think you'll find it hard to convince the majority to get a vaccine, especially one where we can't know it's long term effects and that gives side effects but doesn't result in a return to normal (which is what has been being sold to the average American, that we need a vaccine to get back to normal).
Really???
The US reported more than 2,100 deaths in a single day. Things are projected to get worse
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/25/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html18 -
SummerSkier wrote: »I was looking thru the posts here and it seems like we know so little about this virus even after a year. One thing that bothers me is folks saying that the vaccine will GIVE you the virus so you will be contagious, I don't think that is the way it works. You might feel a little ill for 24-48 hrs - which is how the shingles shot effected me, but I don't think I was contagious for shingles after I had the shot. Just as I don't think the flu shot gives you the flu and you are contagious or the tetanus shot gives you tetanus. etc... I realize that this is a brand new type RNA of vaccine but I am pretty sure that no where is anyone saying you actually GET COVID from it.
Hope I am not wrong here.
I'm anxious about the vaccine more because it hasn't been tested very long and I anticipate it being promoted very aggressively. I am for taking experts' advice in some areas like mask wearing and social distancing, but for vaccines I would take a wait and see approach.
I think that with COVID, people have been quick to say that they are trusting science, but I don't see where we have had time to actually follow the scientific method. In science, you are supposed to make observations, then test a hypothesis. After testing and analyzing, you don't actually prove that your hypothesis is true-- you fail to reject your hypothesis.
After many failures to reject a hypothesis, it becomes a theory. And a theory isn't proven, you just fail to reject your theory. I think that people are working hard to get this solved and I definitely understand the urgency, but I hope that there is some patience with those of us who don't rush out to get the vaccine.3 -
Fewer %age wise at least...far more have also contracted the virus than before. It's a virus, it's spreads. That's what viruses do. I don't know the solution, but this whole lockdown, isolate, social distance thing is harming people just as much as Covid is and most people don't want to acknowledge that the cure is turning as bad or worse than the disease.
I'm in medical coding - specifically I'm a reviewer for Inpatient coding for a large hospital chain. I see alot of Covid charts - basically every chart that has a covid+ code on it (U07.1) flags/stops prior to billing and we review it to be sure it's correctly coded, that the pt has a positive covid test, to be sure that the new tech codes for the new treatments are properly applied if applicable. They also send us the numbers/% of bed, vent, HFNC usage for the prior week. Admits are up but vent and HFNC use is down and they know how to treat it now so outcomes are better. So I have no hands on Covid treatment experience but do have a very good grasp on the treatments used and how many are being admitted each day/week. Over the summer and early fall Covid admits were down and in the last month they have gone up quite a bit.
On the other hand psych admits are up and many people list Covid (both fear of and restriction related) as a contributing factor.4 -
janejellyroll wrote: »If we can't get back to "life as usual" then what is the point of taking the vaccine? A vaccine that can have serious side effects at that. There's going to be a TON of pushback on this if true...I mean that's not what's been being told to us here in the US, until very recently, and there's going to be many who refuse to do so if we can't leave the masks and social distancing behind.
The "point" would be that an effective vaccine would result in fewer people dying, which seems like a great outcome even if we do have to wear a mask in some situations.
But we already have far fewer people dying without a vaccine. They have learned to treat it, what to do and what not to do and several medicines have been shown to help already. Overall the death toll was pretty low - wasn't it .03%? And now fewer people are dying, fewer vents are being utilized (at 1 of the large hospital chains in my state current vent usage is 37% and that's for everyone, not just Covid patients), and there are overall better outcomes. If life will stay the same whether we get the vaccine or not I think you'll find it hard to convince the majority to get a vaccine, especially one where we can't know it's long term effects and that gives side effects but doesn't result in a return to normal (which is what has been being sold to the average American, that we need a vaccine to get back to normal).
Really???
The US reported more than 2,100 deaths in a single day. Things are projected to get worse
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/25/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
If you assume for a second that .03% was the death rate, if 100% of the current US population got Covid-19, 95K would have died. Since it's obviously not .03%, we are already way above those numbers.
That .03% figure was being thrown out by certain media outlets and sons of politicians to minimize the notion of it.
So yeah, you're right, .03% is a gigantic incorrect number.14 -
SummerSkier wrote: »I was looking thru the posts here and it seems like we know so little about this virus even after a year. One thing that bothers me is folks saying that the vaccine will GIVE you the virus so you will be contagious, I don't think that is the way it works. You might feel a little ill for 24-48 hrs - which is how the shingles shot effected me, but I don't think I was contagious for shingles after I had the shot. Just as I don't think the flu shot gives you the flu and you are contagious or the tetanus shot gives you tetanus. etc... I realize that this is a brand new type RNA of vaccine but I am pretty sure that no where is anyone saying you actually GET COVID from it.
Hope I am not wrong here.
So far it is known that a vaccine will block infection and viral reproduction in the vaccinated person by activating the immune system before the virus attacks the body; however, there is not proof yet that the vaccine can actually kill the virus and avoid shedding and population infection.
Moderna boss says COVID shot not proven to stop virus spread
https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/moderna-boss-says-covid-shot-not-proven-to-stop-virus-spread/
What this means is not that the vaccine "gives the virus", what is saying is that if a vaccinated person gets infected by the virus, he/she doesn’t get sick because of the vaccine, but can she/he still shed that virus and infect another non-vaccinated person???? or does the vaccine actually kills the virus or reduce infectivity????
We still don't have a complete answer to that question, but maybe the scientific community has it. However, if everybody gets vaccinated, eventually we will not have to worry about it.
The virus is a parasite that can only survive when it takes hold of a host (in this case us). If everybody gets vaccinated, then the virus will have nobody to help it reproduce, so we get herd immunity. So if it decides to come back for a visit, it will not have a host to feast on.
What about mutations? Well, I am sure that the scientific community will be in a permanent watch modifying vaccines accordingly, and if needed. That is what we do with the flu virus anyway.
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Fewer %age wise at least...far more have also contracted the virus than before. It's a virus, it's spreads. That's what viruses do. I don't know the solution, but this whole lockdown, isolate, social distance thing is harming people just as much as Covid is and most people don't want to acknowledge that the cure is turning as bad or worse than the disease.
I'm in medical coding - specifically I'm a reviewer for Inpatient coding for a large hospital chain. I see alot of Covid charts - basically every chart that has a covid+ code on it (U07.1) flags/stops prior to billing and we review it to be sure it's correctly coded, that the pt has a positive covid test, to be sure that the new tech codes for the new treatments are properly applied if applicable. They also send us the numbers/% of bed, vent, HFNC usage for the prior week. Admits are up but vent and HFNC use is down and they know how to treat it now so outcomes are better. So I have no hands on Covid treatment experience but do have a very good grasp on the treatments used and how many are being admitted each day/week. Over the summer and early fall Covid admits were down and in the last month they have gone up quite a bit.
On the other hand psych admits are up and many people list Covid (both fear of and restriction related) as a contributing factor.
Countries that didn't isolate, lockdown, or social distance are now doing that--Sweden, England,...... NOT doing it didn't work. Their healthcare was overwhelmed. Again--what exactly do you propose?14 -
Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.7
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SummerSkier wrote: »I was looking thru the posts here and it seems like we know so little about this virus even after a year. One thing that bothers me is folks saying that the vaccine will GIVE you the virus so you will be contagious, I don't think that is the way it works. You might feel a little ill for 24-48 hrs - which is how the shingles shot effected me, but I don't think I was contagious for shingles after I had the shot. Just as I don't think the flu shot gives you the flu and you are contagious or the tetanus shot gives you tetanus. etc... I realize that this is a brand new type RNA of vaccine but I am pretty sure that no where is anyone saying you actually GET COVID from it.
Hope I am not wrong here.
So far it is known that a vaccine will block infection and viral reproduction in the vaccinated person by activating the immune system before the virus attacks the body; however, there is not proof yet that the vaccine can actually kill the virus and avoid shedding and population infection.
Moderna boss says COVID shot not proven to stop virus spread
https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/moderna-boss-says-covid-shot-not-proven-to-stop-virus-spread/
What this means is not that the vaccine "gives the virus", what is saying is that if a vaccinated person gets infected by the virus, he/she doesn’t get sick because of the vaccine, but can she/he still shed that virus and infect another non-vaccinated person???? or does the vaccine actually kills the virus or reduce infectivity????
We still don't have a complete answer to that question, but maybe the scientific community has it. However, if everybody gets vaccinated, eventually we will not have to worry about it.
The virus is a parasite that can only survive when it takes hold of a host (in this case us). If everybody gets vaccinated, then the virus will have nobody to help it reproduce, so we get herd immunity. So if it decides to come back for a visit, it will not have a host to feast on.
What about mutations? Well, I am sure that the scientific community will be in a permanent watch modifying vaccines accordingly, and if needed. That is what we do with the flu virus anyway.
Yes, this is not talking about spread from a Covid infection that the vaccine CREATES in a person, the thing that a PP was worried about.
This is about particular cases: Someone who's been vaccinated, and becomes exposed (community exposure of some sort) to the point where Covid is in their body, but in whom the virus causes no symptoms, no infection essentially. The question is whether a person like that can spread the infection to others (kind of as if the person were a bus, and the virus a passenger, metaphorically.) It's unproven that the virus CANNOT be spread in circumstances like that, by a person who's been vaccinated.
This is an exaggeration, but: If everyone got vaccinated (they won't), and the vaccine were 100% effective (it won't be), it would literally not matter if we kept passing the virus around in the population, because people wouldn't be getting sick, let alone dying. In that imaginary nirvana, the virus would just become like gazillions of other microbes we carry around in/on our bodies and transfer to others, that don't cause any notable problems.
In reality, everyone won't get vaccinated (some can't, medically); it will not be equally effective in everyone; its effect is likely to fade with time (and we don't have details about that); and more . . . so it's an important question whether a vaccinated person can get the virus and spread it for a short time to others, despite being protected themselves. But the fact that we don't know the answer yet is not some huge flaw in the vaccine program or any specific vaccine. The trials don't test for everything. They've been focused on safety and effectiveness in the vaccinated individual.
Underscoring: The Modern chief medical officer is NOT saying that people can get this particular vaccine, get the disease from this vaccine (WTF?!), then pass that vaccine-caused disease to others. No.
I admit I'm not a biological scientist of any sort, but based on my limited understanding of how the mRNA vaccines work in general, I can't see how the vaccine could literally cause the actual Covid virus. (That's a theoretical possibility with some other types of vaccines, if there's been a manufacturing problem of a very specific sort.) IMU, the mRNA vaccine is causing our body to manufacture a protein that's on the surface of the virus, a subpart of the virus (not manufacture a whole virus). That protein in our body gets our immune system mobilized to attack future actual viral bits that might later enter our body "dressed" in that protein.6 -
Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
Our governor put us back into stay at home orders and shut everything down again except essentials...not because we can't allow people to die of COVID....but because we don't have any stinkin' ICU beds left, so there's nowhere to take the heart attack patient or the family that gets into a terrible car accident, etc. All of the states around us are pretty much in the same situation, so there's literally nowhere to treat patients who need critical care.
Most people I know think that the deaths from COVID are tragically sad...but they aren't that myopic in their thinking to think that these restrictions are strictly to prevent death...logically that doesn't even make sense...a lot of us are worried about where we'll go if we need critical medical care...'cuz right now, we're pretty SOL in NM.23 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »SummerSkier wrote: »I was looking thru the posts here and it seems like we know so little about this virus even after a year. One thing that bothers me is folks saying that the vaccine will GIVE you the virus so you will be contagious, I don't think that is the way it works. You might feel a little ill for 24-48 hrs - which is how the shingles shot effected me, but I don't think I was contagious for shingles after I had the shot. Just as I don't think the flu shot gives you the flu and you are contagious or the tetanus shot gives you tetanus. etc... I realize that this is a brand new type RNA of vaccine but I am pretty sure that no where is anyone saying you actually GET COVID from it.
Hope I am not wrong here.
My understanding is that there are two types of vaccines -- those that result in potential "shedding" of the live virus and those that don't. I don't believe we have yet been informed which category these two potential options fall in.
Even if you're shedding the virus, it wouldn't be accurate to say you "got" the disease in question. It would just mean you would need to be cautious, like people had to be careful back when they gave the live polio vaccine prior to 2000. People who received the live vaccine didn't "get polio," but vaccine-derived polio (someone getting it from someone who had received a live vaccination) was a thing, although rare.
If you go back a page or 2, I think it was here that there was an article posted yesterday from the Moderna CEO explaining that their vaccine allows for shedding of the virus.
I missed that - thanks!0 -
Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
Who is arguing that we shouldn't worry about other causes of death during this period?
Who is saying that we shouldn't care about and try to address the negative consequences of social distancing?
You're arguing against something I haven't seen anyone argue.
You can understand that Covid is a real threat to our health and economy that deserves real responses AND also acknowledge that we need to do more to address the unfortunate side effects of the actions we're taking to address that. I would argue that is what many people are doing. I don't see anyone saying "Just mask and isolate and ignore everything else."
I DO see people saying "Let's not mask and let's get back to normal" without addressing the consequences of that. How would that not be harmful to businesses and mental health?23 -
People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
You seem to be operating on some pretense that if the local officials did not encourage social distancing and masks, if there was no partial shut down (in many places this is simply no indoor dining/bars and reducing the number of people in stores, in others it's even less), that everything would be "normal." That's clearly not the case. Large events started to be canceled before any official shutdowns, and a lot less people than normal are going to be willing to go out and behave as if there was no virus, especially as rates and deaths would increase by a lot as people did, if local officials just did -- as you seem to want -- throw up their hands and say "everything is open 100%, act normally!" I mean, there are people who would do so as a political statement, no doubt, but the idea that everything would just be normal just doesn't seem based in reality at all.
The way things CAN be normal is if the vaccines work and we quickly get them to a high enough percentage of the population or if we had perhaps done more to prevent it getting to this widespread level of spread (for example, it seems that other than short term shut downs in response to any community spread, NZ and Aus are largely able to operate much more normally).
IMO,those who most loudly demand (including by their behavior) that we pretend this virus does not matter are the very ones who are responsible for it going on as long and as badly as it has.21 -
Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
This isn’t an either/or situation. I have a friend here who just ran an in-person race with 15,000 people. This happened because she lives in New Zealand, where they have been taking lockdowns and contact tracing so seriously that they are, in fact, now able to go back to normal.
Pretending the virus doesn’t exist and isn’t serious and that efforts to mitigate it are pointless leads to more virus, which leads eventually to less normalcy, because eventually things get so bad (no hospital beds, businesses shut down because of infected workers) that they can’t be ignored even by the most stubborn among us. Taking the virus seriously and behaving in a reality-informed fashion over the short term to do things that work, in the long term results in no virus and people living normal lives.
Also, the list of things that work includes support for those who have to deal with shut downs - emotional and financial support. Funny how the people who are most loudly complaining about being hurt by shut downs are also opposing relief.17 -
People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
You seem to be operating on some pretense that if the local officials did not encourage social distancing and masks, if there was no partial shut down (in many places this is simply no indoor dining/bars and reducing the number of people in stores, in others it's even less), that everything would be "normal." That's clearly not the case. Large events started to be canceled before any official shutdowns, and a lot less people than normal are going to be willing to go out and behave as if there was no virus, especially as rates and deaths would increase by a lot as people did, if local officials just did -- as you seem to want -- throw up their hands and say "everything is open 100%, act normally!" I mean, there are people who would do so as a political statement, no doubt, but the idea that everything would just be normal just doesn't seem based in reality at all.
The way things CAN be normal is if the vaccines work and we quickly get them to a high enough percentage of the population or if we had perhaps done more to prevent it getting to this widespread level of spread (for example, it seems that other than short term shut downs in response to any community spread, NZ and Aus are largely able to operate much more normally).
IMO,those who most loudly demand (including by their behavior) that we pretend this virus does not matter are the very ones who are responsible for it going on as long and as badly as it has.
This. So much this.
And yes, life in NZ is 'new normal' - https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/alert-level-1/
Basically, keep track of where you've been, maintain good hand hygiene, practice distancing where you can. Everything is open (except the border). And no, neither New Zealand or Australia achieved this by virtue of being islands with low population density (Auckland is actually hella dense, as are several cities in Aus). We achieved it by all doing what was needed, when it was needed.
I despair for the US, I really do. Because in all likelihood there are going to be too many people who refuse to get the vaccine for it to be effective. They're mostly the same people who are the reason the US is currently in such bad shape.22 -
Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
This is a thread about Covid per se, which might explain why we keep talking predominantly about the virus, less about the social and economic effects of the virus and/or related behavioral restrictions.
I don't know why you'd assume that people don't care about the (seeming) related rise in domestic violence, food insufficiency in subgroups, suicide risk, small-business impact, loss of jobs; the implications for housing insufficiency in context of job loss and the expiration of eviction moratoriums in many places; the impact on socialization of many children by loss of in-person school and play groups, plus the disparate impact on some of them from the reduced learning effectiveness, and the related amplifications of economic advantage/disadvantage disparities on children's learning; the effects of isolation on the elderly and others in care homes, as well as others in extra-limited social contexts to start with; the increased risk (and possible under-access because of fear or under-availability because of overcrowding) when people have health care needs; . . . and I could go on, and on, and on.
I care about quite a few things, personally; and do what I can to mitigate, in my particular circumstances. I assume others do likewise (I could be wrong, of course). But I'm not going to be talking much about that here because it's not the core focus of the thread; let alone be all crowing about any of that mitigation stuff, because I think that would be seriously crass. I'm also hearing lots about those things (in the previous paragraph) in the sources of news that I follow, including how communities are balancing those many with Covid restrictions as much as possible, and figuring out how to mitigate the problems in other ways. Those strategies are far from perfect, and I'm not pretending they wipe out the impact, but that level of coverage does seem to imply that "people" notice and care.
However, if you think it would be useful to talk more here about any of those other Covid-related social problems, in a concrete and factual way, and about what we can do (including how to open up, but also about how to mitigate better until we can open up), it seems like it's within the scope of the thread.
I can't speak for the people you know IRL, or how much you know about how much they care, or about what they're thinking. Assuming that *here* "People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions" . . . well, I think that's making a conceptual leap.20 -
I think most people are aware of and care about all the effects from this Covid crisis. The big question is how do we, as a country, keep people the healthiest that we can while opening up again, keeping people employed, keeping businesses running, etc. How do we handle the increased child abuse, domestic abuse, suicides, mental health issues, etc., while trying to keep Covid from spreading further and stressing out the last of our medical workers?
I don't see any quick and easy answers to any of this except each and every one of us has to make better decisions for the common good. Be more vigilant as to how you feel; how many people are still going into work, thinking they've just got a cold? How many people who are supposed to be in quarantine but choose to go out into public anyways? How many people are being unknowingly exposed to asymptomatic people?
There was a news story today about a family that got together earlier this month(in Texas I believe) for a birthday party. One of the women infected due to the get-together has pneumonia and is in ICU. IIRC, most everyone(15) at the party contracted Covid. While trying to breathe, she cautioned everyone to not do what they did. Unfortunately, so many people won't listen until it becomes real for them because we've heard this same type of story repeated over and over since this all began. People wishing they'd done things differently. 17 -
There is no normal until a majority of people are vaccinated. Full stop. Restrictions are meant to limit sickness and death until that happens. It's a fairy tale to think if we just stop fighting it everything will go back to "normal".
I can't even fathom the effect on the US economy if we just gave up and stopped trying to limit spread. A million people dying of covid over the course of a year, some racking up medical bills, others just dying at home because the hospital in their area was overcrowded. All the lost incomes, the grieving families, the exploding level of medical debt, the healthcare workers burning out or getting sick, the lost work hours of people dealing with longhaul symptoms (Constant fatigue, migraine, breathing issues lingering for months are being reported by a not-inconsequential percentage of survivors, many of whom had very mild cases). This too would lead to more deaths due to cancer, heart attacks, strokes due to overwhelmed hospitals and emergency services, more depression and suicides due to grieving families. And a lot of people would stay home anyway, it's not like everyone would just throw their masks away and go to a bar. Not to mention the disproportionate costs to minority communities and the poor, which would be devastated.
Better government financial assistance would've helped a lot, and still could. Countries that did a better job of supporting people staying home have "generally" had lower case numbers and deaths, and less economic hardship. They also got a little bit of a break over the summer before people started to let down their guard. They are seeing a spike now, but that's after they got down to very low numbers for several weeks, and did loosen their restrictions for a bit. We never got that break, because too many people weren't following restrictions in the first place, either because they chose not to, or because they had no choice (like those who couldn't work from home and couldn't afford to lose their jobs).
There is now light at the end of the tunnel. To think we might actually be able to defeat a novel virus in less than two years time is a historic success for humanity. Giving up now because it's not easy, rather than gaining momentum from the progress we've made would be a mistake. I'd say IMHO, but honestly I think this is just objectively true. I'm surprised there isn't this rising pride in our medical community and healthcare R&D, this should be huge news. We haven't done a great job societally, but if we can hold on for a few more months, things will slowly start improving. And we will find a new normal, just like we always do. How the heck did I become the pollyana in the thread by the end of this post???
37 -
I remember when this thread was toilet paper and eating cat food 😂😜14
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janejellyroll wrote: »If we can't get back to "life as usual" then what is the point of taking the vaccine? A vaccine that can have serious side effects at that. There's going to be a TON of pushback on this if true...I mean that's not what's been being told to us here in the US, until very recently, and there's going to be many who refuse to do so if we can't leave the masks and social distancing behind.
The "point" would be that an effective vaccine would result in fewer people dying, which seems like a great outcome even if we do have to wear a mask in some situations.
But we already have far fewer people dying without a vaccine. They have learned to treat it, what to do and what not to do and several medicines have been shown to help already. Overall the death toll was pretty low - wasn't it .03%? And now fewer people are dying, fewer vents are being utilized (at 1 of the large hospital chains in my state current vent usage is 37% and that's for everyone, not just Covid patients), and there are overall better outcomes. If life will stay the same whether we get the vaccine or not I think you'll find it hard to convince the majority to get a vaccine, especially one where we can't know it's long term effects and that gives side effects but doesn't result in a return to normal (which is what has been being sold to the average American, that we need a vaccine to get back to normal).
kushiel1, fewer vents are being used because they are not a good idea to use on many patients doctors have now realised and not because things are getting better. Read this article or Google why ventilators not being used as often for Covid. I would have thought in your line of work you might have know about this already. I honestly don't see how you are thinking fewer people are dying. It's worse than ever over there. Here in Australia we are doing better every day and are opening up many boarders we had closed since there is almost no Covid, zero Covid in my state and most others. We are living mask free because we hit the virus hard with lockdowns and all the rest as soon as a small cluster arises.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-analysis-recommends-less-reliance-on-ventilators/
22 -
rheddmobile wrote: »Clearly though the measures we have in place aren't working either - I'm sure there are a large number of cases that are due to engaging in large groups, no masks, etc but I'm also sure that I saw on this very forum that there's also plenty of cases that came from people who said that they do mask. It's a virus, it spreads, and I've always found it an interesting argument that a mask is supposed to help stop the spread. I think it's pretty clear that the virus isn't going to go away and that we can't expect people to keep up this level of restriction - let's say that every single case right now is due to people not following restrictions (which I don't believe) - how long exactly do you think people can keep this up? The economy is down, people are losing jobs that won't come back, small businesses are closing, mental health issues are massively on the rise. Do you really think that current conditions are sustainable for another year while we wait for enough people to get a vaccine that we dont' know the long term effects of and have no guarantee will work as advertised before we can get back to something approaching normal? Why is it only acceptable to prevent Covid deaths and not worry about other deaths that are results of the affects of covid - suicide, etc? People keep insisting that we have to do this because we can't allow people to die of Covid, but seem to not care about what is happening as a result of the restrictions.
This isn’t an either/or situation. I have a friend here who just ran an in-person race with 15,000 people. This happened because she lives in New Zealand, where they have been taking lockdowns and contact tracing so seriously that they are, in fact, now able to go back to normal.
Pretending the virus doesn’t exist and isn’t serious and that efforts to mitigate it are pointless leads to more virus, which leads eventually to less normalcy, because eventually things get so bad (no hospital beds, businesses shut down because of infected workers) that they can’t be ignored even by the most stubborn among us. Taking the virus seriously and behaving in a reality-informed fashion over the short term to do things that work, in the long term results in no virus and people living normal lives.
Also, the list of things that work includes support for those who have to deal with shut downs - emotional and financial support. Funny how the people who are most loudly complaining about being hurt by shut downs are also opposing relief.
Agree @rheddmobile
Here is a link to government data re mental health and suicide outcomes (to date) during 2020 here in Australia. It largely attributes our lockdowns, 'all in this together' approach and government financial support to maintaining almost the same rate of suicide as 2019. Mental Health care seeking has increased but that's not surprising.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/covid-1911 -
I wanted to come on and wish everyone (at least in the US) a Happy Thanksgiving.
Please be understanding. I likened this whole thing, early on, to the stages of grief. Many emotionally aren't capable of getting beyond shock, denial and anger (the first 3 stages of Grief). Most on here are already to Acceptance (the final stage). This sucks for everyone. Some much more than others.
Two bits of bad news today in terms of the fighting Coronavirus. One was AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. Some of their protocol coming out are extremely concerning and going to come under a lot more scrutiny. The other one was SCOTUS ruling in a 5-4 decision that NY State could not limit the number of people gathering in churches. Working mostly in NYC as a consultant, I can tell you that this is seriously contentious in NYC. The orthodox Jewish community there has been gathering in church, maskless, with as many as 7K people under one roof -- all signing and such. Just a superspreader event on steroids. Culturally, they aren't going to follow guidelines. NY State tried to limit the spread and make that type of activity illegal. SCOTUS shut that down and said that's not within states' rights, which I'm having a real hard time understanding. These are the types of decisions (more by the community in NYC) that are just mind blowing to me.
Oh, and Phoenix (I'm in Tucson) is hosting a gigantic soccer tourny with 500 teams. I was a soccer parent for 15 years. I get how important that is for kids. But it's also HUGE money to local economies. This is more about the coaches, directors (who get paid up to six figures) and local communities to get a huge influx of needed cash. But it's also one of those things you say, well, this isn't going to go well.19 -
I saw that too @MikePfirrman1
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MikePfirrman wrote: »The other one was SCOTUS ruling in a 5-4 decision that NY State could not limit the number of people gathering in churches.
Just to clarify a bit, this blocks the NY executive order temporarily, as the case works its way up to the 2nd Cir and likely the SC again. And the issue is lack of neutrality: "The court explained that Cuomo’s order does not appear to be neutral, but instead “singles out houses of worship for especially harsh treatment.” For example, although a synagogue or a church in a red zone is limited to 10 people at a service, there are no limits on how many people a nearby “essential” business – which can include acupuncture or a camp ground – can admit."
It also suggests less restrictive rules, like a number based on the size of the church/synagogue building, would be okay.
That means the issues with the EO from the SC's perspective seem to be fixable, if Cuomo wants to fix it.
Good analysis, from which I took the quote: https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/11/justices-lift-new-yorks-covid-related-attendance-limits-on-worship-services/#more-29790511 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I wanted to come on and wish everyone (at least in the US) a Happy Thanksgiving.
Please be understanding. I likened this whole thing, early on, to the stages of grief. Many emotionally aren't capable of getting beyond shock, denial and anger (the first 3 stages of Grief). Most on here are already to Acceptance (the final stage). This sucks for everyone. Some much more than others.
Two bits of bad news today in terms of the fighting Coronavirus. One was AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. Some of their protocol coming out are extremely concerning and going to come under a lot more scrutiny. The other one was SCOTUS ruling in a 5-4 decision that NY State could not limit the number of people gathering in churches. Working mostly in NYC as a consultant, I can tell you that this is seriously contentious in NYC. The orthodox Jewish community there has been gathering in church, maskless, with as many as 7K people under one roof -- all signing and such. Just a superspreader event on steroids. Culturally, they aren't going to follow guidelines. NY State tried to limit the spread and make that type of activity illegal. SCOTUS shut that down and said that's not within states' rights, which I'm having a real hard time understanding. These are the types of decisions (more by the community in NYC) that are just mind blowing to me.
Oh, and Phoenix (I'm in Tucson) is hosting a gigantic soccer tourny with 500 teams. I was a soccer parent for 15 years. I get how important that is for kids. But it's also HUGE money to local economies. This is more about the coaches, directors (who get paid up to six figures) and local communities to get a huge influx of needed cash. But it's also one of those things you say, well, this isn't going to go well.
This is so sad to me. God is everywhere isn't he? Well he is to me so I can't understand the maskless spreading of this with large numbers of people involved. I wish they'd stop. I'm busting to go to Israel. Guess it's the same there as NY??? I hope not.2
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