Coronavirus prep

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  • MikePfirrman
    MikePfirrman Posts: 3,307 Member
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    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    Sure, Ann, I agree. It's just that we've had 200+ pages saying basically the same thing. "Wear your mask. Social distance."

    I guess my time in this thread is over. ::wavingslowly::

    That will be a loss to dialog, I think, but of course you should do what's best for you.

    I'd observe that some of the "Wear your mask. Social distance." here is people venting frustrations that are harder to vent safely in some daily lives. In that sense, it's a release valve.

    Wishing you well, always.

    Agree 100% with Ann. Enjoy reading your commentary. @ Ann - I hope I'm wrong about the A/C and indoor ventilation being so dangerous.

    Was curious (as I do a lot of advising/consulting with startups as part of my business) if there were companies that were utilizing UV light to disinfect air via air handlers in the mechanical systems of buildings. Found a really interesting article that one Seattle restaurant did just that. Seems that it's an older technology that was brought back. I'm not seeing a whole lot being done on this front and, quite frankly, it's surprising.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/13/890387205/coronavirus-sparks-new-interest-in-using-ultraviolet-light-to-disinfect-indoor-a
  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,013 Member
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    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    Sure, Ann, I agree. It's just that we've had 200+ pages saying basically the same thing. "Wear your mask. Social distance."

    I guess my time in this thread is over. ::wavingslowly::

    That will be a loss to dialog, I think, but of course you should do what's best for you.

    I'd observe that some of the "Wear your mask. Social distance." here is people venting frustrations that are harder to vent safely in some daily lives. In that sense, it's a release valve.

    Wishing you well, always.

    Agree 100% with Ann. Enjoy reading your commentary. @ Ann - I hope I'm wrong about the A/C and indoor ventilation being so dangerous.

    Was curious (as I do a lot of advising/consulting with startups as part of my business) if there were companies that were utilizing UV light to disinfect air via air handlers in the mechanical systems of buildings. Found a really interesting article that one Seattle restaurant did just that. Seems that it's an older technology that was brought back. I'm not seeing a whole lot being done on this front and, quite frankly, it's surprising.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/13/890387205/coronavirus-sparks-new-interest-in-using-ultraviolet-light-to-disinfect-indoor-a

    I just saw a TV commercial of a local nursing home showing they have started using some kind of industrial UV light disinfection system. Is it possible it's newly been "proven" to work for covid? I haven't seen anything about it recently.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    I would also add that it is misguided to assume that opening back up means saving the economy.

    If we get another 200,000 deaths through the fall, it will hurt the economy. If hundreds of thousands of people end up in the ER or ICU and are saddled with medical debt, it will hurt the economy. If small business owners are too sick to work for a month or two, they most likely will lose their business, which will hurt the economy. If a generation of 20 something's get asymptomatic cases but end up with a lifetime of diminished lung or kidney function, or an increased risk of stroke, which by the way could be considered a pre existing condition, so are constantly dealing with medical costs as they age, that will hurt the economy. If the 20% of the US population that is in an increased risk category continue to feel unsafe and don't participate in the economy, it will hurt the economy.

    There are obviously logical differences of opinion possible, but opening everything back up to normal before cases are declining and hospitalizations are dwindling, and without clear plans for how to deal with outbreaks that pop up, could tank the economy just as badly as another lockdown could. We needed to have a plan in March. We still don't have a plan in July. That is going to cost us royally, regardless of what else we do. Most people aren't adverse to getting back to close to normal, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Most people aren't adverse to sending kids back to school, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Everything here is just making up policy, throwing it at the wall, and seeing if it sticks.

    I think I said this long ago (not going back to find it)... there are basically 3 options:
    1. Shut everything down absolutely (like what Spain ended up doing) and contain the virus, but have huge economic losses.
    2. Keep everything open, have a lot of death, but not economic losses (aside form the indirect economic problems caused by all the death).
    3. Do a hybrid approach (half shutdown) that results in both lots of economic losses and lots of deaths.

    Most places did a half shutdown (option 3) and then went back to option 2 pretty quickly afterwards.
  • rheddmobile
    rheddmobile Posts: 6,840 Member
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    Sure, Ann, I agree. It's just that we've had 200+ pages saying basically the same thing. "Wear your mask. Social distance."

    I guess my time in this thread is over. ::wavingslowly::

    That will be a loss to dialog, I think, but of course you should do what's best for you.

    I'd observe that some of the "Wear your mask. Social distance." here is people venting frustrations that are harder to vent safely in some daily lives. In that sense, it's a release valve.

    Wishing you well, always.

    Agree 100% with Ann. Enjoy reading your commentary. @ Ann - I hope I'm wrong about the A/C and indoor ventilation being so dangerous.

    Was curious (as I do a lot of advising/consulting with startups as part of my business) if there were companies that were utilizing UV light to disinfect air via air handlers in the mechanical systems of buildings. Found a really interesting article that one Seattle restaurant did just that. Seems that it's an older technology that was brought back. I'm not seeing a whole lot being done on this front and, quite frankly, it's surprising.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/13/890387205/coronavirus-sparks-new-interest-in-using-ultraviolet-light-to-disinfect-indoor-a

    I just saw a TV commercial of a local nursing home showing they have started using some kind of industrial UV light disinfection system. Is it possible it's newly been "proven" to work for covid? I haven't seen anything about it recently.

    I read a study that found uv takes a really long time to kill covid. I’m wondering if this will work.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    edited July 2020
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    I would also add that it is misguided to assume that opening back up means saving the economy.

    If we get another 200,000 deaths through the fall, it will hurt the economy. If hundreds of thousands of people end up in the ER or ICU and are saddled with medical debt, it will hurt the economy. If small business owners are too sick to work for a month or two, they most likely will lose their business, which will hurt the economy. If a generation of 20 something's get asymptomatic cases but end up with a lifetime of diminished lung or kidney function, or an increased risk of stroke, which by the way could be considered a pre existing condition, so are constantly dealing with medical costs as they age, that will hurt the economy. If the 20% of the US population that is in an increased risk category continue to feel unsafe and don't participate in the economy, it will hurt the economy.

    There are obviously logical differences of opinion possible, but opening everything back up to normal before cases are declining and hospitalizations are dwindling, and without clear plans for how to deal with outbreaks that pop up, could tank the economy just as badly as another lockdown could. We needed to have a plan in March. We still don't have a plan in July. That is going to cost us royally, regardless of what else we do. Most people aren't adverse to getting back to close to normal, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Most people aren't adverse to sending kids back to school, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Everything here is just making up policy, throwing it at the wall, and seeing if it sticks.

    I think I said this long ago (not going back to find it)... there are basically 3 options:
    1. Shut everything down absolutely (like what Spain ended up doing) and contain the virus, but have huge economic losses.
    2. Keep everything open, have a lot of death, but not economic losses (aside form the indirect economic problems caused by all the death).
    3. Do a hybrid approach (half shutdown) that results in both lots of economic losses and lots of deaths.

    Most places did a half shutdown (option 3) and then went back to option 2 pretty quickly afterwards.

    But experience has shown this is not the case.

    (1) A lot of countries did this, they had to subsidize a lot and sustain economic losses in the short term, but cutting this short likely prevented a long term economic problem. This ranges from Spain/Italy (who got hurt before we understood what was coming) and Australia/NZ (who warded it off).

    (2) Sweden -- there is no indication that Sweden's decision not to lock down prevented economic losses.

    (3) Us, the UK -- not great. Likely we should have shut down by region or state and prevented travel, however.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
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    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I would also add that it is misguided to assume that opening back up means saving the economy.

    If we get another 200,000 deaths through the fall, it will hurt the economy. If hundreds of thousands of people end up in the ER or ICU and are saddled with medical debt, it will hurt the economy. If small business owners are too sick to work for a month or two, they most likely will lose their business, which will hurt the economy. If a generation of 20 something's get asymptomatic cases but end up with a lifetime of diminished lung or kidney function, or an increased risk of stroke, which by the way could be considered a pre existing condition, so are constantly dealing with medical costs as they age, that will hurt the economy. If the 20% of the US population that is in an increased risk category continue to feel unsafe and don't participate in the economy, it will hurt the economy.

    There are obviously logical differences of opinion possible, but opening everything back up to normal before cases are declining and hospitalizations are dwindling, and without clear plans for how to deal with outbreaks that pop up, could tank the economy just as badly as another lockdown could. We needed to have a plan in March. We still don't have a plan in July. That is going to cost us royally, regardless of what else we do. Most people aren't adverse to getting back to close to normal, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Most people aren't adverse to sending kids back to school, they're adverse to doing so without a plan. Everything here is just making up policy, throwing it at the wall, and seeing if it sticks.

    I think I said this long ago (not going back to find it)... there are basically 3 options:
    1. Shut everything down absolutely (like what Spain ended up doing) and contain the virus, but have huge economic losses.
    2. Keep everything open, have a lot of death, but not economic losses (aside form the indirect economic problems caused by all the death).
    3. Do a hybrid approach (half shutdown) that results in both lots of economic losses and lots of deaths.

    Most places did a half shutdown (option 3) and then went back to option 2 pretty quickly afterwards.

    But experience has shown this is not the case.

    (1) A lot of countries did this, they had to subsidize a lot and sustain economic losses in the short term, but cutting this short likely prevented a long term economic problem. This ranges from Spain/Italy (who got hurt before we understood what was coming) and Australia/NZ (who warded it off).

    (2) Sweden -- there is no indication that Sweden's decision not to lock down prevented economic losses.

    (3) Us, the UK -- not great. Likely we should have shut down by region or state and prevented travel, however.

    All fair points because these options all must assume that there is no travel nor trade among various states / countries that make different choices. Or to say that another way, this assumes everybody makes the same choice.
  • Gisel2015
    Gisel2015 Posts: 4,140 Member
    edited July 2020
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    Sure, Ann, I agree. It's just that we've had 200+ pages saying basically the same thing. "Wear your mask. Social distance."

    I guess my time in this thread is over. ::wavingslowly::

    That will be a loss to dialog, I think, but of course you should do what's best for you.

    I'd observe that some of the "Wear your mask. Social distance." here is people venting frustrations that are harder to vent safely in some daily lives. In that sense, it's a release valve.

    Wishing you well, always.

    Agree 100% with Ann. Enjoy reading your commentary. @ Ann - I hope I'm wrong about the A/C and indoor ventilation being so dangerous.

    Was curious (as I do a lot of advising/consulting with startups as part of my business) if there were companies that were utilizing UV light to disinfect air via air handlers in the mechanical systems of buildings. Found a really interesting article that one Seattle restaurant did just that. Seems that it's an older technology that was brought back. I'm not seeing a whole lot being done on this front and, quite frankly, it's surprising.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/13/890387205/coronavirus-sparks-new-interest-in-using-ultraviolet-light-to-disinfect-indoor-a

    I just saw a TV commercial of a local nursing home showing they have started using some kind of industrial UV light disinfection system. Is it possible it's newly been "proven" to work for covid? I haven't seen anything about it recently.

    I read a study that found uv takes a really long time to kill covid. I’m wondering if this will work.

    @rheddmobile

    The UV used used for disinfection is UV "C" not UV A or B (different wave length). It is the same kind of equipment used in the hospitals ORs between surgeries.

    Does UV light kill the new coronavirus?
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/does-uv-light-kill-the-new-coronavirus/ar-BB16DH58
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,467 Member
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    Oklahoma City just passed a mask mandate with many exceptions. Penalty for non-compliance = $9 fine.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,964 Member
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    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    If you look at that Johns Hopkins link I posted above, you'll see that our rate of death per case is 3.9% (edit - in the U.S.) and Germany's is 4.5%, so again - not sure what the point was there. Sweden is at 7.3%, UK at 15.4%.

    Death per cases is not a reliable stat, because many or most with coronavirus aren't being tested. That's why the best comparison is death per millions.

    In addition, deaths per cases is not a reliable stat because our incidence of new cases is rising so fast. The majority of our cases are not yet resolved. You cannot treat all those unresolved cases as cases that did not result in death. Many of them will still result in deaths (based on current figures on the Johns Hopkins site, as many as 11% of those unresolved cases in the U.S. will end in death -- and if you consider that rising cases means greater strain on the health care system and potentially poorer care and triaging, that rate could rise).

    I agree that deaths per millions is probably the best comparison between countries, but if you want to get some sense of the percentage of covid cases in a particular country are ending in death, you would do better to look at [deaths] divided by [deaths + recoveries]. Admittedly, that may be a little high, as it appears on average, from the (largely anecdotal) information I've seen, that average time to recovery is probably somewhat longer than average time to death. But it's going to be far closer to the truth than using a denominator in which two-thirds* of the cases have not yet resolved in either death or recovery



    *Two-thirds is the figure for unresolved cases to date for the U.S. YMMV in other countries.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,964 Member
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    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    Sure, Ann, I agree. It's just that we've had 200+ pages saying basically the same thing. "Wear your mask. Social distance."

    I guess my time in this thread is over. ::wavingslowly::

    That will be a loss to dialog, I think, but of course you should do what's best for you.

    I'd observe that some of the "Wear your mask. Social distance." here is people venting frustrations that are harder to vent safely in some daily lives. In that sense, it's a release valve.

    Wishing you well, always.

    Agree 100% with Ann. Enjoy reading your commentary. @ Ann - I hope I'm wrong about the A/C and indoor ventilation being so dangerous.

    Was curious (as I do a lot of advising/consulting with startups as part of my business) if there were companies that were utilizing UV light to disinfect air via air handlers in the mechanical systems of buildings. Found a really interesting article that one Seattle restaurant did just that. Seems that it's an older technology that was brought back. I'm not seeing a whole lot being done on this front and, quite frankly, it's surprising.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/13/890387205/coronavirus-sparks-new-interest-in-using-ultraviolet-light-to-disinfect-indoor-a

    The folks that installed my residential HVAC systems and do my seasonal inspections are always trying to convince me to add a UV light disinfecting unit. I have resisted as I have no allergies and live alone, but if I were in a multi-person household, I think I'd be tempted now in the covid end-times :smile:
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 9,964 Member
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    So, to go back to a more literal sense of "prepping," does anyone shop at Trader Joe's? It's not my regular grocery store, but I like to go a few times a year to stock up on some of their frozen and non-perishable foods that I especially like. The TJs near me are all pretty small (my sense is that that's true of the entire chain, but I don't know), and in the BC (before covid) they were always pretty crowded when I went in. We have capacity limits now for retailers where I live, and I have had to wait briefly to get into a Whole Foods once and into Home Depot once, but I'm more concerned about the conditions once I get inside than I am about the prospect of having to wait in line.

    For those of you who have capacity limits in place locally and shop at a TJs, have you felt like social distancing is a realistic possibility once you get inside?
  • paperpudding
    paperpudding Posts: 8,995 Member
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    lemurcat2 wrote: »
    I could disagree point by point but not with an attorney because I don't have that kind of time.

    Let's just say I disagree on most points you just made lemur, because all of them assume we are getting all the numbers - which we aren't - especially from countries that have socialist or communist governments.

    What's the basis for thinking we aren't getting the numbers from Germany or most other EU countries or Australia? Because that's what I have been focusing on.
    There isn't one country (such as Germany) who miraculously just isn't seeing any deaths (or such low deaths like China and Germany) unless there is a lot of deception going on or there is some genetic trait only prevalent in that population - which could turn out to be true, but right now is a wild speculation. Or they have governmental control over their citizens, which I find hard to believe in any country short of communist or dictatorships.

    On what basis do you think Germany is lying? Or Australia?


    Australia and NZ have relatively low Covid numbers - yes I get that their populations are lower but I mean low proportionate numbers.

    They are not communist countries.

    One could argue they are more socialist countries than US since they have things like universal medical care - but are you really suggesting that means their Covid numbers are falsified???