Coronavirus prep

1415416418420421498

Replies

  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 3,115 Member
    SModa61 wrote: »
    I'm not sure if I have shared this already - apologies if so.

    Data from a few days ago
    Latest outbreak in NSW (state of Australia)

    Deaths: 13
    Vaccinated: 0
    Unvaccinated: 13

    Currently in ICU's: 54
    Vaccinated: 4
    Unvaccinated:50

    What's the vaccination rate in NSW? Without knowing that, one cannot logically draw any conclusions from the above data.

    OK, for those of you who disagree:

    Assume a population of 10,000 with only 10% of the population vaccinated. That means the vaccinated have a 0.4% (4/1000) chance of ending up in the ICU, and the unvaccinated have 0.6% chance (54/9000) of ending up in the ICU. Not nearly as big a difference as suggested by just looking at the raw numbers of cases.

    The lower the percentage of the population that is vaccinated the less convincing these numbers are. You need to know the vaccination rate to draw conclusions.

    For ease of reading, using the same common denominators is best. The two numbers you are comparing are actually 36/9000 vs 54/9000 and easier to see the point you are making. :)

    I would think it's more helpful to use the actual raw numbers in the example for people who don't understand why you need to know the vaccination rate to usefully compare the raw numbers. Why throw even more arithmetic at people for whom basic statistics is not intuitively obvious? If I had posted what you suggest, I would have expected the response to be, "Where the heck did you get 36 from? You're changing the numbers. It was just four vaccinated people in the ICU."

    I see your point about the raw number data and not altering it. I still think the differing denominators can unfortunately be missed by people like me.
  • Gisel2015
    Gisel2015 Posts: 4,191 Member
    mph323 wrote: »
    Regarding masking: I think we've hit a point where science is clashing with implementation. Up until now, mask mandates have been based on the science of how the virus is transmitted, evolving as we learned more about the virus but still basically applicable to most of the population.

    Now the science says unvaccinated people are mostly safe not wearing a mask but vaccinated people must continue. It's impossible to enforce this without going to the kind of extreme measures that would probably lead to (even more) violent demonstrations on one side or another. I just don't see a resolution.

    @mph323
    I am also puzzled about this statement. Could you please clarify if this is a typo or where did you get this information? We are pretty overwhelmed with good, bad and in between reports, and we shouldn't add more confusion to an already upside down world.

  • ythannah
    ythannah Posts: 4,371 Member
    I don't know where you are or what conditions are like there, but where I am, we are not "coming out" of anything. We just moved from moderate to substantial virus transmission levels in my area, and we're going back to mask mandates in all indoor public spaces tomorrow.

    I'll answer on behalf of Gail since I know she's in the same province as I am, Ontario. Mask mandates have never been dropped here, nor are we fully re-opened, although we're in a looser stage of restrictions than we've seen in a long time.

    Cases are starting to climb again in some areas. Positivity rate is 1.4%.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    kimny72 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I'm listening to a TWIV from the weekend and they mentioned they get lots of emails asking why they haven't done an episode about Delta. And they said that's because there is no scientifically verifiable data about it yet. It's too new. The data available is mostly anecdotal. The actual scientific study papers note that the data is insufficient to draw a solid conclusion, but articles draw conclusions anyway. But it's important to remember that public health officials can't wait for scientific conclusions, they see cases rising, they see ICUs filling up, and they have to do something. So the rely on the anecdotal or incomplete data as best they can.

    They touched on the MA outbreak. They noted that most Covid tests are measuring viral particles in the nose. They noted most of the vaccinated people who get sick at all get upper respiratory symptoms. They wonder if perhaps what the vaccine immunity is doing is blocking the viral particles from working their way down from the nasal passage, to the upper respiratory tract, and down into the lungs. If that's the case, the fact that vaxxed folks have particles in their nose triggering a positive test isn't useful info. They weren't sure what conclusions to draw from that yet though.

    I know you follow the science on this stuff closely, so this really is a question -- I was under the impression the vaccines work by preventing the virus from getting into our cells to replicate, not that they did much if anything about the initial particles in the virus you inhale, rub into your eyes, etc.? Am I way off base on this?

    I don't 100% understand either, but yes I think that's how I understand it. I think the question is.. where does the virus get the toehold it needs to get into your cells, start replicating in overdrive, and do whatever damage it's going to do? And what is the best way to test whether the virus has done that or not? It seems like the public information out there is assuming that a positive test showing high level of virus in your nose means you're infected, but researchers don't actually know that's the case. I think, lol.

    Thanks!
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    SModa61 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    I'm not sure if I have shared this already - apologies if so.

    Data from a few days ago
    Latest outbreak in NSW (state of Australia)

    Deaths: 13
    Vaccinated: 0
    Unvaccinated: 13

    Currently in ICU's: 54
    Vaccinated: 4
    Unvaccinated:50

    What's the vaccination rate in NSW? Without knowing that, one cannot logically draw any conclusions from the above data.

    OK, for those of you who disagree:

    Assume a population of 10,000 with only 10% of the population vaccinated. That means the vaccinated have a 0.4% (4/1000) chance of ending up in the ICU, and the unvaccinated have 0.6% chance (54/9000) of ending up in the ICU. Not nearly as big a difference as suggested by just looking at the raw numbers of cases.

    The lower the percentage of the population that is vaccinated the less convincing these numbers are. You need to know the vaccination rate to draw conclusions.

    For ease of reading, using the same common denominators is best. The two numbers you are comparing are actually 36/9000 vs 54/9000 and easier to see the point you are making. :)

    I would think it's more helpful to use the actual raw numbers in the example for people who don't understand why you need to know the vaccination rate to usefully compare the raw numbers. Why throw even more arithmetic at people for whom basic statistics is not intuitively obvious? If I had posted what you suggest, I would have expected the response to be, "Where the heck did you get 36 from? You're changing the numbers. It was just four vaccinated people in the ICU."

    I see your point about the raw number data and not altering it. I still think the differing denominators can unfortunately be missed by people like me.

    Sorry. It may be a situation where it's hard to find a way to talk about it that communicates well to everyone.
  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,011 Member
    edited August 2021
    ahoy_m8 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I'm listening to a TWIV from the weekend and they mentioned they get lots of emails asking why they haven't done an episode about Delta. And they said that's because there is no scientifically verifiable data about it yet. It's too new. The data available is mostly anecdotal. The actual scientific study papers note that the data is insufficient to draw a solid conclusion, but articles draw conclusions anyway. But it's important to remember that public health officials can't wait for scientific conclusions, they see cases rising, they see ICUs filling up, and they have to do something. So the rely on the anecdotal or incomplete data as best they can.

    They touched on the MA outbreak. They noted that most Covid tests are measuring viral particles in the nose. They noted most of the vaccinated people who get sick at all get upper respiratory symptoms. They wonder if perhaps what the vaccine immunity is doing is blocking the viral particles from working their way down from the nasal passage, to the upper respiratory tract, and down into the lungs. If that's the case, the fact that vaxxed folks have particles in their nose triggering a positive test isn't useful info. They weren't sure what conclusions to draw from that yet though.

    I know you follow the science on this stuff closely, so this really is a question -- I was under the impression the vaccines work by preventing the virus from getting into our cells to replicate, not that they did much if anything about the initial particles in the virus you inhale, rub into your eyes, etc.? Am I way off base on this?

    I don't 100% understand either, but yes I think that's how I understand it. I think the question is.. where does the virus get the toehold it needs to get into your cells, start replicating in overdrive, and do whatever damage it's going to do? And what is the best way to test whether the virus has done that or not? It seems like the public information out there is assuming that a positive test showing high level of virus in your nose means you're infected, but researchers don't actually know that's the case. I think, lol.

    Not a virologist...I did read that sinuses have structures a bit like coral reefs that do not get a lot of blood flow. (For DD who had chronic sinus infections, this is why increasingly strong antibiotics by mouth didn't really do anything for a year. The antibiotics never reached the coral-like structures.) This allows the virus to multiply unencumbered by antibodies in the blood. When viral particles travel towards the lungs, though, they encounter all the blood borne defenses (antibodies, t cells) and get wiped out.

    Again, not a virologist, but I would call this nasal "toehold" an infection even though it is not in the lungs. FWIW, the Delta strain is also reported to replicate in the throat, but I've read nothing about the tissue structures that permit this. But I do know DD with the chronic infections had massively inflamed and infected adenoids (prior to their surgical removal), so somehow bacteria was able to evade antibiotics there, too. Maybe it is a similar mechanism?

    Interesting, thanks. I know the TWIV folks are skeptical of vaccinated people being just as infectious as unvaxxed but don't seem really clear yet on why if they are carrying as much virus in the nose, so obviously there's still a lot they have to learn about this thing!
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
    Xikaiden wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    On messaging: It sure doesn't help when messaging from the CDC and media outlets focus on a statistical outlier like Provincetown where the vaccinated proved to be more likely to get sick than the unvaccinated. I just can't believe the data or it must be an outlier, so why focus on it so much?!

    I think it's getting more attention because it provided substantial new data on how the virus may behave among those who are vaccinated, adding to our knowledge on that aspect. I don't think the attention is primarily due to the size/scope of that outbreak.

    I never assumed it was due to the size of that outbreak, but more so that it is the only case I've heard about where the data shows that a vaccinated person is more likely to get Covid than an unvaccinated person. That's why I think it is a statistical outlier or possibly bad data. Nowhere else have I seen data that shows people are more likely to get Covid if they are vaccinated.

    You're assuming there were equal numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated people around to get infected. Imagine an outbreak with 30 cases, 10 unvaccinated and 20 vaccinated. You might go HEY WAIT BEING VACCINATED MADE YOU TWICE AS LIKELY TO GET COVID. But if the population was almost entirely vaccinated people - say, 20 unvaccinated, 2000 vaccinated. Then fully half the unvaccinated people caught it but only 10% of the vaccinated did.

    I dunno how vaxxed the guys at Bear Week at P-Town were :) But you see what I'm saying?

    No, I am not assuming that.

    Here's what we know from the MMWR: 69% of MA residents are vaccinated. 74% of the people who got Covid in this outbreak were vaccinated. If a vaccinated person is less likely to get Covid, the percentage of vaccinated people who got Covid should be less than the percentage of vaccinated people in the population as a whole.

    If the vaccination rate was 50%, then it would be far worse than what I'm seeing from the available data.

    ETA: If vaccinated rate was 75%, then it proves vaccinations help reduce risk of getting Covid. Or if 68% of those infected are vaccinated. The numbers to compare are vaccinated rate of population vs. rate of infection amongst those vaccinated.

    Does any of that data takes into consideration whether those that were vaccinated had other pre-existing health conditions or were fully healthy when catching covid post vaccine. Just curious.

    Work started requiring employee's mask up again (I personally never stopped) but most them are back to chin diapers again making it kinda pointless.....

    The MMWR only mentions underlying conditions for those who were hospitalized. 50% of the vaccinated who were hospitalized had underlying conditions. 100% of the unvaccinated who were hospitalized had multiple underlying conditions.

    Once again, data shows the vaccinated group was in worse shape here. Either the data is bad or vaccinations increase risk... or this is a statistical outlier. Since other data from other places shows different results, I strongly believe the CDC and media would stop focusing on this case and acting like it is a bellwether for future Delta variant outbreaks.

    I see a lot of people clicking Disagree. Here is the MMWR for those who haven't yet looked at it: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

    Tell me where my statistics are wrong...

    Again, this is a case where the vaccinated have been shown to have a statistically increased risk of getting Covid.

    Here are the possible conclusions that I can think of:
    1. Vaccinated people are more likely to get Covid (that's what this data shows - just take it at face value).
    2. This case is a statistical outlier. In most outbreaks, vaccinated people are less likely to get Covid.
    3. The data is wrong, there is an error in data collection, etc.

    I'm pro-vaccine, so I really don't want to promote any of the above conclusions. Best case scenario in my mind is that the data is wrong. In that case, the CDC and media should not have focused on it. Next best case is that this is a statistical outlier. If so, the CDC and media should not have focused on it. Finally, there is the highly unlikely, yet possible situation that vaccinated people really are more likely to get Covid. If true, the CDC and media really should gather more information to be sure before they start focusing on this outbreak.
  • The_Enginerd
    The_Enginerd Posts: 3,982 Member
    edited August 2021
    Xikaiden wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    On messaging: It sure doesn't help when messaging from the CDC and media outlets focus on a statistical outlier like Provincetown where the vaccinated proved to be more likely to get sick than the unvaccinated. I just can't believe the data or it must be an outlier, so why focus on it so much?!

    I think it's getting more attention because it provided substantial new data on how the virus may behave among those who are vaccinated, adding to our knowledge on that aspect. I don't think the attention is primarily due to the size/scope of that outbreak.

    I never assumed it was due to the size of that outbreak, but more so that it is the only case I've heard about where the data shows that a vaccinated person is more likely to get Covid than an unvaccinated person. That's why I think it is a statistical outlier or possibly bad data. Nowhere else have I seen data that shows people are more likely to get Covid if they are vaccinated.

    You're assuming there were equal numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated people around to get infected. Imagine an outbreak with 30 cases, 10 unvaccinated and 20 vaccinated. You might go HEY WAIT BEING VACCINATED MADE YOU TWICE AS LIKELY TO GET COVID. But if the population was almost entirely vaccinated people - say, 20 unvaccinated, 2000 vaccinated. Then fully half the unvaccinated people caught it but only 10% of the vaccinated did.

    I dunno how vaxxed the guys at Bear Week at P-Town were :) But you see what I'm saying?

    No, I am not assuming that.

    Here's what we know from the MMWR: 69% of MA residents are vaccinated. 74% of the people who got Covid in this outbreak were vaccinated. If a vaccinated person is less likely to get Covid, the percentage of vaccinated people who got Covid should be less than the percentage of vaccinated people in the population as a whole.

    If the vaccination rate was 50%, then it would be far worse than what I'm seeing from the available data.

    ETA: If vaccinated rate was 75%, then it proves vaccinations help reduce risk of getting Covid. Or if 68% of those infected are vaccinated. The numbers to compare are vaccinated rate of population vs. rate of infection amongst those vaccinated.

    Does any of that data takes into consideration whether those that were vaccinated had other pre-existing health conditions or were fully healthy when catching covid post vaccine. Just curious.

    Work started requiring employee's mask up again (I personally never stopped) but most them are back to chin diapers again making it kinda pointless.....

    The MMWR only mentions underlying conditions for those who were hospitalized. 50% of the vaccinated who were hospitalized had underlying conditions. 100% of the unvaccinated who were hospitalized had multiple underlying conditions.

    Once again, data shows the vaccinated group was in worse shape here. Either the data is bad or vaccinations increase risk... or this is a statistical outlier. Since other data from other places shows different results, I strongly believe the CDC and media would stop focusing on this case and acting like it is a bellwether for future Delta variant outbreaks.

    I see a lot of people clicking Disagree. Here is the MMWR for those who haven't yet looked at it: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

    Tell me where my statistics are wrong...

    Again, this is a case where the vaccinated have been shown to have a statistically increased risk of getting Covid.

    Here are the possible conclusions that I can think of:
    1. Vaccinated people are more likely to get Covid (that's what this data shows - just take it at face value).
    2. This case is a statistical outlier. In most outbreaks, vaccinated people are less likely to get Covid.
    3. The data is wrong, there is an error in data collection, etc.

    I'm pro-vaccine, so I really don't want to promote any of the above conclusions. Best case scenario in my mind is that the data is wrong. In that case, the CDC and media should not have focused on it. Next best case is that this is a statistical outlier. If so, the CDC and media should not have focused on it. Finally, there is the highly unlikely, yet possible situation that vaccinated people really are more likely to get Covid. If true, the CDC and media really should gather more information to be sure before they start focusing on this outbreak.
    I was reading an interview with one of the people who tested positive and he mentioned something that no one else has seemingly noticed yet, which strikes me as very significant.

    He talks about himself and his husband going into a crowded venue which they HAD TO SHOW THEIR VACCINE CARD TO ENTER. If everyone there had to be vaccinated, then that automatically overrides any info about local vaccine rates, etc. It would be exactly the type of situation which would lead to these numbers - the unvaccinated people would be a small minority who were exposed outside, while the vaccinated were in the clubs, etc.

    I also wonder, since this was an event specifically for older gay men, how many of the breakthrough cases were HIV positive and therefore immunocompromised. We already know that being immunocompromised causes the two dose vaccine not to work in a majority of cases, and older gay men are more likely to have lived through the time period when HIV was rampant in the gay community.

    This article speaks to one those involved and the citizen scientists that helped alert the CDC to the outbreak early on and the high incidence in vaccinated individuals. One of the bright sides about this was the gay community's willingness to work with the medical community and CDC for contact tracing.

    The article doesn't speak to the incidence of HIV and weakened immune systems in those with breakthrough infections, and it also was not mentioned in the CDC study. I expect the CDC would have considered that factor in their investigation before they made the decision to revise the masking guidance for all vaccinated individuals, and it would have been mentioned in the study if it was determined to be a significant factor.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/06/1025553638/how-a-gay-community-helped-the-cdc-spot-a-covid-outbreak-and-learn-more-about-de
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 3,115 Member
    When we talk about large maskless events, I am going to be very curious about what we might see after a large 60th birthday party on Martha's Vineyard this weekend.
  • lynn_glenmont
    lynn_glenmont Posts: 10,097 Member
    SModa61 wrote: »
    When we talk about large maskless events, I am going to be very curious about what we might see after a large 60th birthday party on Martha's Vineyard this weekend.

    It's been announced that it has been cancelled/scaled down, depending on how one wants to look at it.
  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,497 Member
    SModa61 wrote: »
    When we talk about large maskless events, I am going to be very curious about what we might see after a large 60th birthday party on Martha's Vineyard this weekend.

    Won't see anything if you haven't already. Social media reports/pictures from the party have been taken down. Apparently not setting a good example.
  • GaleHawkins
    GaleHawkins Posts: 8,159 Member
    https://bit.ly/3hDquW5

    Sad when we assume vaccine stops Covid-19 risk.