Coronavirus prep
Replies
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80% chance of rain here every day between now and FridayIf it is a nice day where you are can I encourage you all to get outside even if just to your yard or local park. I am not sure and the evidence is not in for covid-19 but Vitamin D in normal get some sun every day levels been shown to help immune system fight off other viruses. Also a bit of fresh air and exercise helps with anxiety, depression. So yeah get outside if at all possible at least 20 minutes a day.
Netflix and Vit D supplements it is! 12 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »hmmm. a post I put up an hour ago never appeared here. My luck, it'll show up tomorrow and be repeated 6 times.....
pi day, but I didn't have any pie ;(
I was in McDonald's today and was just wondering if they would go to drive thru only. I would be behind that - they could focus on the kitchen and prep areas and not have to worry about constantly trying to keep the lobby clean, and they would be limiting the number of people the crew would be exposed to. That particular McDonald's actually did that last summer during their remodel, as did the local Arby's, so the precedent and procedures are there for it.
I think that's a great idea.
I wonder if they would allow pedestrians in the drive-through? Because otherwise *someone's* gonna get their panties in a twist about it being discriminatory to the car-less.3 -
Good point. Maybe carry out only? Pedestrians in the drive-thru seems like a recipe for disaster.snickerscharlie wrote: »bmeadows380 wrote: »hmmm. a post I put up an hour ago never appeared here. My luck, it'll show up tomorrow and be repeated 6 times.....
pi day, but I didn't have any pie ;(
I was in McDonald's today and was just wondering if they would go to drive thru only. I would be behind that - they could focus on the kitchen and prep areas and not have to worry about constantly trying to keep the lobby clean, and they would be limiting the number of people the crew would be exposed to. That particular McDonald's actually did that last summer during their remodel, as did the local Arby's, so the precedent and procedures are there for it.
I think that's a great idea.
I wonder if they would allow pedestrians in the drive-through? Because otherwise *someone's* gonna get their panties in a twist about it being discriminatory to the car-less.4 -
Good point. Maybe carry out only? Pedestrians in the drive-thru seems like a recipe for disaster.snickerscharlie wrote: »bmeadows380 wrote: »hmmm. a post I put up an hour ago never appeared here. My luck, it'll show up tomorrow and be repeated 6 times.....
pi day, but I didn't have any pie ;(
I was in McDonald's today and was just wondering if they would go to drive thru only. I would be behind that - they could focus on the kitchen and prep areas and not have to worry about constantly trying to keep the lobby clean, and they would be limiting the number of people the crew would be exposed to. That particular McDonald's actually did that last summer during their remodel, as did the local Arby's, so the precedent and procedures are there for it.
I think that's a great idea.
I wonder if they would allow pedestrians in the drive-through? Because otherwise *someone's* gonna get their panties in a twist about it being discriminatory to the car-less.
for those restaurants who have two drive through signs, I supposed they could mark the outer one for pedestrians, and then direct them to walk to the closest door for pickup.....
But it doesn't matter what they do, someone is going to get their knickers in a knot - whether they stay open, don't stay open, be drive through only, etc lol
Just like I was going to say that with mobile ordering now a thing, they could direct foot traffic to order through the app and pick up at the door, but then there'd be all those people who don't have the app, don't have smart phones, or don't have internet access (which is actually a pretty big thing where I live - cell service is very spotty, and decent, reliable internet access is only available to a fraction of people)6 -
I belong to an international online group for "Elder Orphans": People over 55 living alone, with no spouse, partner, children, parents, siblings - at least not any close enough (geographically or emotionally) or able to be a support systems.
We have a number of issues that those with families don't (health care power of attorney, will and estate issues, even logistical stuff like making it to outpatient surgery if there's no one to drive us there and wait while the surgery happens, as many medical facilities now require; and much more).
I'm not whining at all, just describing; mostly, this is manageable. It's just non-standard.
In one of the local branches of my "Elder Orphan" group, a nurse/member is setting up pairs of people (who ask for this) to get each other's contact information, and commit to check in daily or on some other agreed basis, with instructions between the two of them about what to do if that contact can't be made.
This group includes people so isolated that they have few/no real-life relationships (sometimes because reasons
). But of course there are similar people without even online connections.
@AnnPT77 I never knew something like this existed. I am married and have young children. However my extended family is both small and a sad, fractured, alienated mess.
Husband's family has issues too. There are most definitely reasons (birds of a feather flocked together in our case, part of why we hit it off initially). Having a good spouse is definitely a source of support. But raising young children with zero extended family support... you have more energy going out than coming in.
I wonder if there is something like this for me. I'm 40 so maybe not in the required age range for that group.
It's times like this that a support system or lack of is something you really start to feel.10 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I had been hearing and reading statements from medical authorities saying they hoped, based on other viruses, that those who recover from covid 19 would have immunity for some period of time, but that so far they didn't have any idea how long that immunity might last. Lay questioners on talk shows seemed to assume that it was a question of whether immunity would last for just a few years (like vaccines that you need boosters for) or for essentially your whole life. but I noticed the experts' responses didn't seem to commit to even "a few years." I guess they were right.
ETA: on the other hand, from the article PAV8888 posted, it appears they've only seen one case of presumed reinfection so far, and it's not clear that this individual ever tested negative. just that they were discharged from the hospital after "showing signs of recovery." I don't know how they decide whether it's a (so-far) rare case of reinfection, or a (rare?) case of an individual who has remained infected for a long time without fully recovering, just going through ups and downs as their body fights the disease.
EATA: Unlike the headline and the paraphrasing by the writer, the actual quotes from medical experts in the story PAV8888 linked seem to be speaking about relapse, not reinfection from another individual.
Thanks for posting this...I feel the same way about the scare-mongering "news" articles but I'm tired and when I started posting a rebuttal to that, "You will re-catch it!!!!!!!!" article I was so tired yesterday...you said it all. That article was badly written and had zero science behind the known facts we have about how virus immunity works.
@MikePfirrman
Maybe you missed Just Em (moderator) who came in on the last page telling us to keep politics out of this.
I'm going to make an attempt today to not get into the "discussion" about it. Seattle continues to be scared. I have enough food and TP for a month.
Yeah. I need to stay out of this thread.
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cmriverside wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I had been hearing and reading statements from medical authorities saying they hoped, based on other viruses, that those who recover from covid 19 would have immunity for some period of time, but that so far they didn't have any idea how long that immunity might last. Lay questioners on talk shows seemed to assume that it was a question of whether immunity would last for just a few years (like vaccines that you need boosters for) or for essentially your whole life. but I noticed the experts' responses didn't seem to commit to even "a few years." I guess they were right.
ETA: on the other hand, from the article PAV8888 posted, it appears they've only seen one case of presumed reinfection so far, and it's not clear that this individual ever tested negative. just that they were discharged from the hospital after "showing signs of recovery." I don't know how they decide whether it's a (so-far) rare case of reinfection, or a (rare?) case of an individual who has remained infected for a long time without fully recovering, just going through ups and downs as their body fights the disease.
EATA: Unlike the headline and the paraphrasing by the writer, the actual quotes from medical experts in the story PAV8888 linked seem to be speaking about relapse, not reinfection from another individual.
Thanks for posting this...I feel the same way about the scare-mongering "news" articles but I'm tired and when I started posting a rebuttal to that, "You will re-catch it!!!!!!!!" article I was so tired yesterday...you said it all. That article was badly written and had zero science behind the known facts we have about how virus immunity works.
@MikePfirrman
Maybe you missed Just Em (moderator) who came in on the last page telling us to keep politics out of this.
I'm going to make an attempt today to not get into the "discussion" about it. Seattle continues to be scared. I have enough food and TP for a month. I live alone and if I die and no one knows, meh - lots of people have big families and still die alone. I am not sure what that comment was supposed to be about. "Oh, I have lots of people - too bad for those poor people if you die alone." Yeah. You might drive off the highway and not be found for two weeks.
Stay in your lane. We all die alone.
Yeah. I need to stay out of this thread.
I agree with EM that politics will lock this thread and should be avoided. However, we have to dance around it somehow because the decisions from "up top" and how quickly they move and adapt will have great effect on the spread of the virus. I would just like to say that I am older--65, and when I was still in the States over 30 years ago I can remember a word called "bipartisan" used to work together when we were under threat. Maybe we could ask our leaders to dust that old fashioned word off and use it right now. Gets off soapbox and slinks back into Italian quarantine........
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I belong to an international online group for "Elder Orphans": People over 55 living alone, with no spouse, partner, children, parents, siblings - at least not any close enough (geographically or emotionally) or able to be a support systems.
We have a number of issues that those with families don't (health care power of attorney, will and estate issues, even logistical stuff like making it to outpatient surgery if there's no one to drive us there and wait while the surgery happens, as many medical facilities now require; and much more).
I'm not whining at all, just describing; mostly, this is manageable. It's just non-standard.
In one of the local branches of my "Elder Orphan" group, a nurse/member is setting up pairs of people (who ask for this) to get each other's contact information, and commit to check in daily or on some other agreed basis, with instructions between the two of them about what to do if that contact can't be made.
This group includes people so isolated that they have few/no real-life relationships (sometimes because reasons ). But of course there are similar people without even online connections.
@AnnPT77 I never knew something like this existed. I am married and have young children. However my extended family is both small and a sad, fractured, alienated mess.
Husband's family has issues too. There are most definitely reasons (birds of a feather flocked together in our case, part of why we hit it off initially). Having a good spouse is definitely a source of support. But raising young children with zero extended family support... you have more energy going out than coming in.
I wonder if there is something like this for me. I'm 40 so maybe not in the required age range for that group.
It's times like this that a support system or lack of is something you really start to feel.
I didn't know such things existed, either, but would really be interested in knowing if such a group was something that is available in my state. Right now my parents are right across the road with my sister, but they are getting on in years, aren't the best of health, and my sister is completely unreliable. My brother is about 1 hour's drive away, but I don't know if I could depend on him, either. I have acquaintances, but very few that I'd consider close enough to call for help, and my church is made up of a lot of older people.
I'm also thinking of my best friend; I'm her only point of contact for help. She is not close to her brothers, and the one brother that she would be willing to work with is a couple of states away and has his own problems and wouldn't be able to come if she needed him.
I do think about the future as a single person with little family, no spouse, and no children, what I will do if I get in the shape I can't easily care for myself any longer. I hope I will be like my grandparents - my dad's parents are in their late 80's/90's and still living at home and independent, as is my mom's 81 year old grandmother, but I also know I can't depend on being able to be like that if I get to their age.7 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
As one of those people, I'm OK with that thought (for myself, anyway). I would call for an ambulance if I started having difficulty breathing. I telecommute, and a telecommuting colleague I email scores of times every day who lives nearby has promised to come over if I stop responding and pull me out when the corpse-barrow rolls by. ("But I'm not dead yet!").
We were talking about apocalypse movies and books...in the U.S. Monty Python In Search of the Holy Grail is on Netflix - I'm watching that today!!2 -
@Snowflake954, I'm so sorry Italy is suffering so badly with this. I appreciate your posts from there and commend you for sticking with us here at MFP and for being an honest information gatherer. Passing on what you know and have learned is invaluable. I fear we here in the US are still on the upward swing of this thing and perhaps some of us are much more aware of the dangers facing us because of the warnings you are giving us. It's time for all us to focus on what we can do regardless of what the Federal Government is saying and doing.
Yesterday my husband and I, 72 and 70, decided that even though we are at lower risk because of our general good health (although he is slightly more at risk than I) we would adhere to the general consensus that we should just stay home unless it is essential we leave the house. We run a small business here in So Cal and will continue to ship product and go to the post office and bank only as financially necessary. We are going out for a few supplies here and there, but no big shopping trips or waiting in lines. We are not eating out at all or attending any social functions. We had a family gathering scheduled for Easter weekend which we have cancelled and that includes some flights for family members. I have a Dr. appointment tomorrow which I will keep as I've waited 3 months for it but I will take extra precautions while there. We believe it is our responsibility to not spread the virus or take up precious medical resources that others will need more than we might.
@psychgrrl, thanks for the well wishes re our daughter.
She was tested Friday at a drive thru testing site in SF. She tested negative for COVID-19 (thank goodness). Her doctor has instructed her to stay home while she is ill and perhaps beyond in the hopes she won't be exposed, especially since she is already sick and her lungs are compromised from 40 years of asthma. They may re-test her in the weeks to come. Her boss delivered a laptop and a few essential supplies to their apartment on Friday so she will be able to work from home until things improve. Her husband is legally blind and relies on her for transportation, grocery shopping and other essentials things that are difficult for him so she needs to continue with some of those things but only as necessary. He's a lawyer and will be going to work 2 days but staying home the other 3.
With the help of a neighbor and some online shopping they were able to stock some essentials so should be fine for a couple of weeks. They were unable to find TP, hand soap and hand sanitizers, so we sent them what we had and I made our own sanitizer and saved enough of our TP supply so we don't temporarily run out. She was able to get the last 3 canister case of sanitizing wipes delivered from their local Costco. She thinks these are important since her husband is still working with the public.
Anyway, that's what's happening in our neck of the woods. I'm feeling confident that my husband and I will not become ill for now, but I do think that eventually most of us will contract the virus. Maybe by then we'll know more and be better prepared to take care of everyone. Perhaps even a treatment or some sort of vaccine will be available who knows?
Stay safe and well!
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I started "buying ahead" staples a few weeks ago and so by the time this week's frenzy started we were in pretty good shape. My husband had a stroke last weekend (is home from the hospital and doing really well) so my focus now really is on staying as healthy as possible for as long as possible. This means that I am not planning to go out much and will avoid making any grocery runs at peak hours. I think that once the stocking up frenzy is over, this will be easier.
My city In Wisconsin, US is taking "social distancing" very seriously and various neighborhood groups have loosely organized so that folks can help each other out with errands, food, childcare and even cash as needed. This kind of community vs. individual focus is great ... it not only is beneficial in the larger social sense, it provides individuals with a way of being useful, which helps keep the panic down.
The # of confirmed cases has been steadily rising, and I expect that as testing becomes more widely available there will be an exponential increase. I expect the curve to continue rising for another 6-8 weeks, hopefully not sharply, and then begin to fall - if other countries' experience holds true here. An area of research that I am looking at is the stuff coming out on "virus shed" windows, or the # of days a person is still able to pass the virus on once they have recovered in terms of symptoms. I find stuff like this very interesting. As the data come out and reasonable conclusions can be drawn, it will help guide people who are in the most vulnerable populations to plan how long to be "careful" about moving around in the general population. The Lancet is my source for this info. Preliminary data from China suggests that the "shedding" window is the longest in patients who have been the most severely ill, which makes total sense.
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If people are being confronted with empty supermarket shelves, I notice that in London at least, hoarding behaviour hasn't hit the asian grocer's yet. I've been to two this week and they were both well stocked.10
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If people are being confronted with empty supermarket shelves, I notice that in London at least, hoarding behaviour hasn't hit the asian grocer's yet. I've been to two this week and they were both well stocked.
Around here the "mass market" grocery stores were hit first and hard. The smaller "mom and pop" and ethnic ones were not hit very hard at all.3 -
Washington state representing.
I'm old, so I've stopped playing around with my diet. Baked chicken (the dirty bird, yes, I know) three times a week, eggs and bacon twice a week. Lots of potatoes and veggies, as always. A gallon of water a day.
Basically, loading up on traditional protein and keeping my calories to under 2400. When this crisis is over, I'll go back to screwing with my diet.
I usually go to the YMCA to use their cardio in the winter--I have a home weight room--but that's out. I'll survive this cold snap without cardio and then hit the bicycle trails twice as hard.
My neighbors always laughed at me and my healthy habits, but who is laughing now! HA!7 -
If people are being confronted with empty supermarket shelves, I notice that in London at least, hoarding behaviour hasn't hit the asian grocer's yet. I've been to two this week and they were both well stocked.
Around here the "mass market" grocery stores were hit first and hard. The smaller "mom and pop" and ethnic ones were not hit very hard at all.
Same here, from what I've seen. My neighborhood meat market (which has a full range of foods) was normal on Friday.3 -
I'm in Washington state, pretty close to the confirmed cases and yes, I'm a tad worried. Not in a panic, but being cautious. I have little kids and have asthma myself so I don't want any of us catching ANYTHING that could land us in the hospital.
I'm wondering why is everyone stockpiling toilet paper?!?! That is selling out as quick as water around here!
I read that it is a herd-type panic thing. Like chickens flocking together and running thing.
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Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick (but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing![:\](https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/resources/emoji/confused.png ":\")
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.13 -
Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick (but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.
I know this is hard for a lot of people. Just take things a day at a time and you'll be fine. It just takes some organizing and you're doing what you can. Do you have a mask? They will be impossible to find and if you absolutely need to go out you should have one. Here in Italy it's impossible to find them and the Chinese experts that arrived the other day say that they see too many people without. You've done your best--you can do no more.3 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »Chinese billionaire Jack Ma is donating a million face masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the US. I'm grateful for the support and hope that our government can work with people like him to tap into international sources for desperately needed medical supplies.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/tech/jack-ma-face-masks-us-donation/index.html
This is really out there and sounds like a bonkers conspiracy theory, but can anyone shoot down my thought that testing is being throttled not just for lack of resources but because the fewer people who get tested, the lower the number of confirmed cases and the better the numbers look politically?
It's dark and rainy here, and I've been sitting by myself all day recovering from trying to find tomato sauce for dinner and finding the apocalypse playing out at Safeway. My thoughts are dark.
I guess it's just me, but I think that would require a pretty large-scale, multi-participant conspiracy, a thing that humans are historically pretty bad at sustaining for very long.
And it would have to happen, now, in a leak-ridden political environment where plenty of journalists (and journalistic bottom-feeders besides) would be all too happy to find an break a well-documented version of that story . . . maybe even a poorly-documented one.
If that political conspiracy is happening, it can't hold, IMO.
There's already been reporting on it. And yes, it was reported that they decided not to test as a political hunch that warmer weather would kill it.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-reportedly-rejected-aggressive-coronavirus-121835790.html
Anonymous sources, but I for one, wouldn't doubt this one bit.
I never said certain people in the administration - maybe quite a few - wouldn't manipulate or lie. I said I thought a conspiracy to throttle testing would not hold, i.e., could not be sustained for long.
And it didn't hold.
Various entities started developing their own tests. Parts of the central bureaucracy, and bureaucrats/politicians in the states, pushed back. People leaked stuff. Etc.
Large-scale conspiracies tend to fall apart, especially in relatively non-authoritarian, relatively open societies. When there are too many people involved, they have competing interests, opposing political views, motivations like jealousy/old grudges/revenge/financial benefit, and sometimes a few intended conspirators even turn out to have ethics. It's not that I think no one tries to conspire in nefarious ways; of course they do. Arrogance and hubris mean some startling things are attempted. Big conspiracies are just really hard to sustain.
ETA: Not trying to pick on you here, Mike, even though I'm replying to your post. There have been a few posts replying to mine that seemed to me to be disagreeing with something I didn't think I said (didn't intend to say, anyway), or something tangent to my PP. I'm sure that's because I was unclear, so trying to clarify . . . which will probably make it worse.:drinker:
It sounded to me like you were saying that there was no way that testing was limited in the US on purpose for political gain, because it would require a wide ranging conspiracy that wouldn't be possible. I do disagree with that, because I don't think it would require much of a conspiracy.
I totally agree that wide ranging conspiracies are damn near impossible to carry out and even more impossible to sustain for long even if you can get them started, because humans gonna human.
This little version of the telephone game brought to you by the coronavirus
I have been watching a few episodes of the Leftovers every time there is a free HBO preview weekend and I should be able to finish it this weekend. Not quite post apocalyptic but kinda sorta. Not sure I could watch Contagion or Pandemic right now, this is as close as I get
To the bolded: Maybe the difference here is between attempting a conspiracy, and succeeding at one. (One can think of a conspiracy more as an event, or more as a process in a context. I'm talking process.)
Would a limited number of people in the administration be able to make such a plan, attempt such a conspiracy? Sure.
But in order for it to ultimately succeed, thousands of people would have to, at minimum, ignore events in the rest of the world and STFU, which isn't likely at all. Which thousands? Civil service types at CDC, opposing politicians, state/local government health officials, epidemiologists and infectious disease experts employed outside the government, researchers in related fields, health informatics people with access to world health data and news . . . and generally anyone with intelligence, knowledge of what's happened/happening in the rest of the world, access to information about the 1918 pandemic or even to information about smaller-scale more recent epidemics, etc. Plus, then, the journalists (or social media influencers, or whomever) that those people will start talking to.
Under current circumstances, such a conspiracy is highly, highly unlikely to succeed for very long at all. Too many people have reasons not to STFU.
Death threats without Secret Service protection are a pretty solid reason for STFU and being an anonymous source. The threats of lawsuits and Bill Barr prosecuting you don't help for political vendettas.
I don't honestly believe Trump suppressed tests, but I do think his underestimating it and calling it a flu/cold helped immensely to influence our ineptitude. Our arrogance, thinking the US always should "go it on our own" is stubborn and idiotic. The world all needs each other right now, whether anyone likes it or not.
I also think that shutting down the CDC's Pandemic response team was an attack on anything Obama did (Obama helped set it up from what we learned on SARS and MERS). That Pandemic response team's role was to be the early warning for us about potential pandemics.
Regardless, we're finally taking it serious and, for that, I'm happy. I just hope that Summer will slow it some. It looks like it will, but I think the next two months will be very rough.
I'm speaking pretty theoretically here, on this subject in this thread, about the structure of, and conditions needed for, major important conspiracies to succeed.
I will not be drawn into current cases in any specific, detailed way. I'm talking about a sort of corollary to Occam's razor, for assessing conspiracy allegations: One criterion IMO is the believability of what would take in order for a conspiracy to be sustained to success at its intended goal. Of course, we as individuals may differ on the believability in any specific case.
That said:
Sure, credible death threats are an excellent suppression tool, to get people to STFU. (Implausible but scary death threats will suppress a meeker few, or can be adequate to smallish, relatively low-stakes conspiracies.)
At some scale of conspiracy (some very large number of rquired collaborators or STFU-ers), the death threats need to be pretty open/public, and the conspirators need actual effective collaborating death squads at their disposal, army sized, for large scale suppression to work. If the context lacks those, death threats are just hot air, discourage only the meek, and the conspiracy breaks.
What exactly is that scale? Situational.
From the beginning of this sub-topic, I've been trying (imperfectly, obviously) to suggest that the original person (or others) who feared a conspiracy in this case (or others) use this kind of analysis to decide whether those fears were realistic, in his/her own mind.
How many people would need to be in on the conspiracy, as actual conspirators?
How many people, some potentially in positions with some authority but not at the core of the conspiracy, would need to actively cooperate in making it happen?
How many knowledgeable, expert people in academe/industry related to the conspiracy's goals, but not under its direct control, would know about it and need to at minimum STFU?
How many people in the legion of lower-level clerks and functionaries that would need to know and carry out details of the conspiracy, and also STFU?
What mechanisms of control and coercion do the conspirators have?
What motivations might the collaborators, cooperators, and STFU-ers (or even core conspirators) have to break ranks and out the conspiracy?
What mechanisms would those who break ranks have to publicize, counter in other ways, etc.? Would those be effective?
Etc.
I'm mostly suggesting an orientation to analyzing alleged conspiracies, and thinking about whether they're (first) likely to be happening, and (finally) likely to succeed. At some scale, in some contexts, certain alleged conspiracies become implausible candidates to happen, or to succeed.
It's an analytic framework, primarily . . . and all just my opinion. The actual analysis is for the person who's deciding what to believe.
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If people are being confronted with empty supermarket shelves, I notice that in London at least, hoarding behaviour hasn't hit the asian grocer's yet. I've been to two this week and they were both well stocked.
Around here the "mass market" grocery stores were hit first and hard. The smaller "mom and pop" and ethnic ones were not hit very hard at all.
Same here, from what I've seen. My neighborhood meat market (which has a full range of foods) was normal on Friday.
Yes, it seems as panicked as some people are, they aren't thinking of non traditional places for them to shop for food and essentials - ethnic markets, drug stores, that gas station that no one bothers to go to. So if you really need something, it's worth it to check those places.
A FB friend said she talked to her local grocery store manager and asked if he was worried about the empty shelves. He said and I'm paraphrasing was - people are gonna people, but the toilet paper truck is going to keep showing up. So I'm hopeful that as the hoarders get their TP forts finished up, and supply chain interruptions don't seem to be a big thing so far, those empty shelves will be temporary.9 -
My dad is in a nursing home that is already understaffed. He has had his watch stolen twice as well as a wedding ring. He also has to wait 30-45 minutes for help getting to the bathroom. His wife visits daily, which helps a lot. If they close off access to her, I don't know what will happen to him. He's 95.
The info about the Elder Orphans is something I will want to keep in mind. My husband is much older than I, so odds are I will end up alone. I have no children. My stepchildren are good people, but have no responsibility for my well being and aren't close to their father in any case. We talk to them every few months, at best. My siblings are far away and in bad health and I only talk to them once or twice a year. DH and I are both basically hermits, so although we have a lot of online 'friends' we don't have anybody who would notice if we disappeared for a while. BTDT - nobody cared. The only one who might notice is the postal carrier, and I don't know that she would do anything.10 -
Here in Maryland the governor just closed down all casinos and racetracks and off track betting
Oh and because this site is owned by under armour i know they also closed down their headquarters starting friday and have moved to work from home .2 -
spiriteagle99 wrote: »My dad is in a nursing home that is already understaffed. He has had his watch stolen twice as well as a wedding ring. He also has to wait 30-45 minutes for help getting to the bathroom. His wife visits daily, which helps a lot. If they close off access to her, I don't know what will happen to him. He's 95.
The info about the Elder Orphans is something I will want to keep in mind. My husband is much older than I, so odds are I will end up alone. I have no children. My stepchildren are good people, but have no responsibility for my well being and aren't close to their father in any case. We talk to them every few months, at best. My siblings are far away and in bad health and I only talk to them once or twice a year. DH and I are both basically hermits, so although we have a lot of online 'friends' we don't have anybody who would notice if we disappeared for a while. BTDT - nobody cared. The only one who might notice is the postal carrier, and I don't know that she would do anything.
FYI, there is a program that you can register for with the USPS. I'm providing the link below. It's a volunteer program so you can check to see if it's available in your area. If not, you can check with your local government for senior programs available in your area that will send out people to check on you if you don't respond to either email, texts, or phone calls regularly set up to monitor your health. Of course, I'm assuming you're in the United States. You may not be, but I'd guess most countries would have senior programs available that would be similar?
programsforelderly.com/safety-carrier-alert-usps.php
I hope this helps at least a little bit.9 -
This is long, but a good read (posted by an orthopedic surgeon in Hawthorne, NY):
https://www.howardluksmd.com/sports-medicine/covid-19-update-3-14-2020-concerned-physicians-unite/
I particularly like this comparison chart for those saying it's "just the flu."
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On Friday, they shut down all schools, colleges, universities, libraries, swimming pools, daycares and other public facilities up here.
It is, I think a very prudent response which sadly should be done in more communities. However, I still see IRL people who don’t quite comprehend the scale of what the math suggests this can become and are using this as an excuse to ‘hang out more’ FFS
As Mike said earlier, for you, our Southern neighbours, it is a good thing there were leaders within the various affected states who acted because nothing adequate was being done prior to that. Quite the opposite.
I can’t even recommend the CDC website to people for data since there are far better alternatives. That’s just sad 😞
For those interested, you can download data sets from the European equivalent cdc. Then there’s also worldometer which takes the same data it seems and makes it more visually palatable
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Here in Maryland the governor just closed down all casinos and racetracks and off track betting
Oh and because this site is owned by under armour i know they also closed down their headquarters starting friday and have moved to work from home .
PG county government/buildings is closed tomorrow. Will be interesting going to work tomorrow.. probably a ghost town..3 -
The bigger problem is the effect this is having on our farming industry. We're buying this stuff up regardless of the reason which can cause lands to be overused and eventually useless. If/when that happens, we'll just have to chop up more forests, right?1
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snowflake954 wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick (but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.
I know this is hard for a lot of people. Just take things a day at a time and you'll be fine. It just takes some organizing and you're doing what you can. Do you have a mask? They will be impossible to find and if you absolutely need to go out you should have one. Here in Italy it's impossible to find them and the Chinese experts that arrived the other day say that they see too many people without. You've done your best--you can do no more.
snowflake954–Thank you for your updates from Italy. My husband is Italian (living in USA) and has family there near Lago di Garda, among other places. I have a question for you—I feel like the US is closing everything down pretty early on (which I agree with!), with 60 or so deaths in the whole country at this point. Do you think we’re doing better than Italy did in the beginning? Did Italy wait until the cases and deaths were already pretty high per capita before shutting things down? Or do you feel like they did try to catch the spread early on? Thank you for any insight.1 -
cmriverside wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I had been hearing and reading statements from medical authorities saying they hoped, based on other viruses, that those who recover from covid 19 would have immunity for some period of time, but that so far they didn't have any idea how long that immunity might last. Lay questioners on talk shows seemed to assume that it was a question of whether immunity would last for just a few years (like vaccines that you need boosters for) or for essentially your whole life. but I noticed the experts' responses didn't seem to commit to even "a few years." I guess they were right.
ETA: on the other hand, from the article PAV8888 posted, it appears they've only seen one case of presumed reinfection so far, and it's not clear that this individual ever tested negative. just that they were discharged from the hospital after "showing signs of recovery." I don't know how they decide whether it's a (so-far) rare case of reinfection, or a (rare?) case of an individual who has remained infected for a long time without fully recovering, just going through ups and downs as their body fights the disease.
EATA: Unlike the headline and the paraphrasing by the writer, the actual quotes from medical experts in the story PAV8888 linked seem to be speaking about relapse, not reinfection from another individual.
Thanks for posting this...I feel the same way about the scare-mongering "news" articles but I'm tired and when I started posting a rebuttal to that, "You will re-catch it!!!!!!!!" article I was so tired yesterday...you said it all. That article was badly written and had zero science behind the known facts we have about how virus immunity works.
@MikePfirrman
Maybe you missed Just Em (moderator) who came in on the last page telling us to keep politics out of this.
I'm going to make an attempt today to not get into the "discussion" about it. Seattle continues to be scared. I have enough food and TP for a month.
Yeah. I need to stay out of this thread.
I'm actually pretty independent. Governor Dewine (a Republican) believed the scientists. I thought DeBlasio and Cuomo (both Dems) reacted too slow to shut things down in NYC. I was appauled that the subways weren't shut down. I'm for science, not party.
Dewine has taken the lead for response among governors and I've been impressed. What I'm against is saying "it's just the flu". Anyone that says that, regardless of party, is a moron.5 -
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