Coronavirus prep
Replies
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One of the things that's interesting to me, in something like this, is the extent to which it exposes fragilities in our global interconnectedness.
Before I go on: I'm not an isolationist. I mostly think global interconnection is a good thing (very nuanced, but don't want to digress).
I think we're quite new to this degree of interconnectedness - complex supply chains, international travel and personal/family mobility and geographic distribution, daily tightness of connection between different arms of international corporations, primary sourcing of raw materials and labor in certain constrained areas for economic reasons, etc. It's not totally new, of course, but there's been tremendous increase over my lifespan.
New systems have unanticipated fragilities, and certain non-routine events stress those systems, and highlight the fragilities.
IMO, there's a sense in which "national security" or "regional security" (or whatever geographic bound) involves evaluating and planning for events that can disrupt access to basic needs (for a fairly broad, modern definition of basic needs). I'm not referring just to disease management here, but to any potential weak links that can lead to disruption in essential systems we rely upon. Epidemics are just one potential system stressor.
I'll give an example, related to COVID-19. We now have a shortage of medical masks in the US. China, which is a (maybe the) major global source under normal circumstances, is keeping all they manufacture now. According to a recent news report I heard, the US has one manufacturer. For them to ramp up production beyond current "pull out all the stops" levels, they'd need to invest in new machinery, would take many months to arrive (and might also be constrained by supply-chain problems), and be very costly. Most of the time, when no epidemic, that capacity would go unused.
In some past scares, similar manufacturers have ramped up production to serve immediate needs, and ended up in significant financial distress when the boom was over, needing layoffs of more than their temporary staff increase and other broad negative consequences. They can't gear up for peak needs and stay there, while maintaining a globally cost-competitive business. Excess capacity has a cost.
The US manufacturer who was intereviewed had been trying to raise an alarm about this kind of scenario, after some of the past supply stresses, and seeking some strategic collaboration to reach a more robust state. Once the immediate crises end, interest from others wanes. The systemic fragility continues.
What we'd like, I think, is some strategic attention as things like the COVID-19 scenario (and panic) ensue, with a view to identifying and mitigating systemic weaknesses that the systemic stressor reveals. I think that to some extent, this does happen over time, but it becomes more difficult as complexity increases, and especially as rate of change increases. Risk management has difficulty keeping up with quickly-evolving, increasingly complex systems. At the same time, the populace becomes more dependent on those systems (less able to be individually self-sufficient in various ways).
I don't have any brilliant insights about this, but have been thinking a bit about this, recently: How black-swan events highlight systemic fragilities, and how we collectively respond to that (if we do).
All the above is very true. I work for a large multi-national capital goods manufacturer with facilities/suppliers in many counties around the world. While I'm not a supply chain professional, I'm an accountant who spends a lot of time working with engineering/purchasing/supply chain professionals in determining where to manufacture and source parts for our products. It's very challenging trying to balance all the factors you mention. Most of our products contain parts that are sourced in at least 5-10+ countries, contain thousands of unique parts and need most of these parts for the completed machine to function.
Not to mention the need for repair/maintenance parts on our own and our supplier's factory equipment to keep it running.
Image the number of possible points of failure.8 -
DancingMoosie wrote: »
I live in a rural area and we have a private company for our water supply that isn't always reliable. Having extra water isn't going to hurt anyone, especially if we wake up to the water being off or coming in off-color.
Where I live in the UK there is zero chance the water will get turned off and it is good quality, yet people are still panic buying bottles of the stuff. It seems to be a sort of madness where some people simply cannot help themselves.5 -
Many locales do not have backup generators for their wastewater and water treatment plants. When the power goes down that all she wrote. It's always good to be prepared for weather events. Having some water is on hand is always a good idea no matter what blows in.5
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Where I live in the UK there is zero chance the water will get turned off and it is good quality, yet people are still panic buying bottles of the stuff. It seems to be a sort of madness where some people simply cannot help themselves.
Where do the chemicals that treat your water come from and how do they get there? Supply chain disruption?
Now the chances may be minimal, but my third grade teacher told us that if a test question said something "never or 0% chance" it could happen, false is the correct answer.7 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »
Where do the chemicals that treat your water come from and how do they get there? Supply chain disruption?
Now the chances may be minimal, but my third grade teacher told us that if a test question said something "never or 0% chance" it could happen, false is the correct answer.
So that's it, then?
We in the West will die because a few thousand people in China died last month, and now we'll definitely run out of bleach to make our water supply safe because supply chain? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
There are so many ways our First World comfort zone could completely implode...this is but one of the many and a lot of them have zip to do with China.
Like every day I watch three mile-long trains loaded with coal go north. Then I watch equally long trains of petroleum products go south every day.
We are exchanging everything with someone.
We're in this together.
If China lets our water go chlorine-less, the world economy collapses too. There are plenty of people in both countries that could be pressed into service (the military for one) and it's going to all get done. That's what "State of Emergency" means...there is a plan, Keep Clam.
Hang on everyone.
Just wash your hands and stop ruminating.11 -
Meh. If the water supply goes down and, for some unbeknownst reason - can't be brought back, a few cases of water in your basement aren't going to save you. Maybe just long enough that the stench of the dead and rotting corpses all around you make you wish you were dead, too.
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cmriverside wrote: »
I r.e.a.l.l.y. hope this starts to end all the touching between people in general.
Enough with your hugging, virtual strangers. Ick and ugh.
I love that your ick reaction to hugging virtual strangers is eliciting virtual hugs from Internet strangers.7 -
lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I love that your ick reaction to hugging virtual strangers is eliciting virtual hugs from Internet strangers.
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lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I love that your ick reaction to hugging virtual strangers is eliciting virtual hugs from Internet strangers.
It was a reflex. I couldn't stop myself from clicking on 'hug'
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WinoGelato wrote: »One other thing I don’t think we’ve touched on much in this thread is the economic impact this will have, particularly on small business owners reliant on travel and tourism directly and indirectly.
A colleague shared the story of the shoe shine guy at the airport hawking the corona special - buy one foot shine get the other for free. She stopped and asked how it was going and he said if things don’t turn around soon he will be forced to pack up.
Another colleague in Milan shared concerns that all the cafes and shops are closed - Italy relies almost exclusively on tourism.
New Zealand put a ban on incoming flights from China and anyone who had recently travelled there several weeks ago, which had a pretty immediate impact on tourism, particularly for our towns that are just tourist traps (I'm looking at you, Queenstown). The government issued a relief package for the tourism sector along with the travel ban.
As for hand sanitiser, I've ordered some of this, pricey, but it's a once a day application: https://zoono.co.nz/collections/shop-all/products/hand-sanitiser?variant=27814990086244 (was in the news the other day).0 -
In the unlikely event we reach that eventuality: I've drunk surface water boiled over an open fire before, and I can do it again. There's a perfectly good creek about a quarter mile down the road.
And that only kicks in after the 7.5gal+ of distilled water I routinely keep around for the CPAP and orchids, plus some La Croix, are gone.
Jeesh. 4 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »
Time to wait out the bottom and throw $ in the market.
My dad just bought a small amount in one of the cruise ship companies to see if it rebounds!5 -
In the unlikely event we reach that eventuality: I've drunk surface water boiled over an open fire before, and I can do it again. There's a perfectly good creek about a quarter mile down the road.
And that only kicks in after the 7.5gal+ of distilled water I routinely keep around for the CPAP and orchids, plus some La Croix, are gone.
Jeesh.
We've got a pond outside which is rain sourced (the fish and frogs seem to like the water)... So there's always that as a water supply
The big problem with our current water supply isn't that it might stop coming, it's that what is coming has a rather high nitrate content (you shouldn't give it to small children high...). So we never drink it and only drink bottled water.
In a couple of months (when the highway robbery contract we have with the neighboring town runs out) the village will hook up to the water supply from the nearby lake. Much better quality than the over fertilized water we currently have from plains.
But worst case.... we boil the pond water
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cmriverside wrote: »
So that's it, then?
We in the West will die because a few thousand people in China died last month, and now we'll definitely run out of bleach to make our water supply safe because supply chain? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
There are so many ways our First World comfort zone could completely implode...this is but one of the many and a lot of them have zip to do with China.
Like every day I watch three mile-long trains loaded with coal go north. Then I watch equally long trains of petroleum products go south every day.
We are exchanging everything with someone.
We're in this together.
If China lets our water go chlorine-less, the world economy collapses too. There are plenty of people in both countries that could be pressed into service (the military for one) and it's going to all get done. That's what "State of Emergency" means...there is a plan, Keep Clam.
Hang on everyone.
Just wash your hands and stop ruminating.
If you read my response, I said the chances are MINIMAL. Can't say never, zero chance.
I'm personally not real worried. I go to a public gym and don't have a bottle of hand sanitizer on a cord around my neck or some other over reaction.1 -
Fortunately there still hasn't been any reported cases in Southeast Michigan, but it looks like we're having some supermarket stupidity here. I made my Kroger run for the week and saw that the disinfectant wipes and isopropyl alcohol were cleaned out. The toilet paper shelves were partly empty but there was still plenty available, especially the cheap brands. I did see an older woman who had two carts, one with several packs of toilet paper and paper towels, but most people shopping today seemed to have normal amounts of stuff in their carts.2
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WinoGelato wrote: »
Agreed, thanks @Lillymoo01 for your insightful, thought provoking and logic grounding words.
I would love to share some of them on other social media channels as I think your advice could really resonate with a lot of people but obviously would share it as “quoted from a doctor specializing in infectious diseases on another social media forum” but would only do so with your blessing.
Interestingly someone on my FB feed shared the exact post, word for word, a few minutes ago.1 -
I live in Montgomery County, MD, where there are 3 reported cases. My husband and I live right down the street from a Costco, and it looked like an absolute nightmare when we drove past there yesterday. We also went to Target in Rockville today so my husband could look at cameras and decided to walk around for a little bit. Hand soaps are gone, vitamin C is gone, and rubbing alcohol/peroxides are gone. Good thing the only stuff we bought was some protein powder and some dog treats.
Despite the reported cases here, my husband and I are carrying on as usual. I went to my wax appointment in Rockville, we went out for lunch, and are planning on going grocery shopping tomorrow. We usually get the mega rolls of Charmin, and there's only two of us; so we're definitely good on toilet paper! Hopefully people haven't gone too crazy on the food. Our governor has said not to panic; I haven't seen anyone in a face mask around here (yet). The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that two of the people went to an event at a retirement community in Rockville, so I'm hoping nothing too bad comes of it.
I'm also planning on taking the Metro into DC tomorrow for a casual hike with my hiking group, which I'm really looking forward to
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WinoGelato wrote: »
Interestingly someone on my FB feed shared the exact post, word for word, a few minutes ago.
It was posted by a doctor, @Lillymoo01 posted the link to his post directly below her copy of it. It really was a great post.4 -
In the unlikely event we reach that eventuality: I've drunk surface water boiled over an open fire before, and I can do it again. There's a perfectly good creek about a quarter mile down the road.
And that only kicks in after the 7.5gal+ of distilled water I routinely keep around for the CPAP and orchids, plus some La Croix, are gone.
Jeesh.
We live on a golf course and there are irrigation ponds for for emergency water supply. Lot of geese hang around and my neighbor (who is a friend) is a Marine and expert marksman. I have extra tanks of gas for the grill.0 -
snickerscharlie wrote: »
I'll only stock up when my favourite brand goes on sale. I find things like toilet paper are ridiculously expensive otherwise. Even before this poop show happened.
I was in two stores today (NOT hoarding) and bought some TP. There was plenty at both, although I did notice at WF (not at the other store) that there were some "needing to be restocked" areas of the paper products and some of the frozen food was nearly sold out. I don't know if that's hoarding or them just being slow about restocking or even people at home ordering a bunch for delivery.
The WF was about as crowded as normal at the time I went, and no one I saw in line seemed to be hoarding anything but just buying the usual array of stuff.0 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »
Where do the chemicals that treat your water come from and how do they get there? Supply chain disruption?
Now the chances may be minimal, but my third grade teacher told us that if a test question said something "never or 0% chance" it could happen, false is the correct answer.
You are, if I may be so bold, being somewhat over dramatic and it is your sort of comments that are causing the ridiculous panic that is seeing toilet paper disappearing off shelves across the western world.
If I was not seeing it for myself I would never have believed people would behave like they are currently behaving, but there you are.3 -
You are, if I may be so bold, being somewhat over dramatic and it is your sort of comments that are causing the ridiculous panic that is seeing toilet paper disappearing off shelves across the western world.
If I was not seeing it for myself I would never have believed people would behave like they are currently behaving, but there you are.
I don't find pointing out the potential of global supply chain disruption when major manufacturers are doing the same and qualifying with "the chances may be minimal" to be the least be dramatic.
If you want to blame someone, blame Procter & Gamble:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andriacheng/2020/02/20/chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-threatens-to-send-global-supply-chain-into-a-tailspin-pg-alone-has-17600-items-that-could-be-affected/#946aaac156fa
...“We access 387 suppliers in China that ship to us globally more than 9,000 different materials, impacting approximately 17,600 different finished product items,” Jon Moeller, Procter & Gamble’s chief operating officer and chief financial officer, said Thursday at a conference in New York. “Each of these suppliers faces their own challenges in resuming operations.”11 -
I feel bad for the small businesses that rely on annual events to make the majority of money for the whole year. SXSW cancellation will hurt a lot of small businesses, bars, restaurants, bands, uber drivers, etc. I am hoping locals go out next week and eat and drink and listen to music....won't replace the huge losses but its something.
The service sector in general is going to take a huge hit.
And I also hope that it doesn't interfere with our Nov. or even primary elections. 2 -
This was Friday - entire aisle of toilet paper down to 4 small packets.
yesterday (coudn't be bothered taking another photo) - totally empty
Every supermarket in town is the same.
I think there is next to zero chance of any disruption to South Australia tap water supply and I have a rain water tank anyway - but I had no problem buying 60 bottles of bottled water for our sports club. (that is as usual, nothing to do with coronavirus)
For some bizarre reason, Australians have just gotten totally carried away on the toilet paper hoarding
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paperpudding wrote: »This was Friday - entire aisle of toilet paper down to 4 small packets.
yesterday (coudn't be bothered taking another photo) - totally empty
Every supermarket in town is the same.
I think there is next to zero chance of any disruption to South Australia tap water supply and I have a rain water tank anyway - but I had no problem buying 60 bottles of bottled water for our sports club. (that is as usual, nothing to do with coronavirus)
For some bizarre reason, Australians have just gotten totally carried away on the toilet paper hoarding
I really wish we still had the 'awesome' button (though, obviously not awesome for people who actually need loo paper!).0 -
snickerscharlie wrote: »
Absolutely! Thanks @lillymoo01 for such a well-thought-out, rational approach.0 -
paperpudding wrote: »This was Friday - entire aisle of toilet paper down to 4 small packets.
yesterday (coudn't be bothered taking another photo) - totally empty
Every supermarket in town is the same.
I think there is next to zero chance of any disruption to South Australia tap water supply and I have a rain water tank anyway - but I had no problem buying 60 bottles of bottled water for our sports club. (that is as usual, nothing to do with coronavirus)
For some bizarre reason, Australians have just gotten totally carried away on the toilet paper hoarding
I don't understand this water thing. If you rely on bottled water for your drinking water supply it makes sense to always have a few weeks supply in case of emergency and top this up as you go along. If you were really paranoid about losing your water supply (which is only really likely as a result of a natural disaster than a virus) then just make sure you have a couple of large containers filled with water from your tap instead.2 -
I was in two stores today (NOT hoarding) and bought some TP. There was plenty at both, although I did notice at WF (not at the other store) that there were some "needing to be restocked" areas of the paper products and some of the frozen food was nearly sold out. I don't know if that's hoarding or them just being slow about restocking or even people at home ordering a bunch for delivery.
The WF was about as crowded as normal at the time I went, and no one I saw in line seemed to be hoarding anything but just buying the usual array of stuff.
I went to our normal grocery store yesterday and it seemed fine. I kind of felt weird because I am a volume eater and I buy a big volume of food. I am not hoarding anything.
I think hoarding instigate more. A perfectly rational person may not be scared of the virus but may be scared of not being able to get certain staples because others are frantically buying it all. So then they start buying extra which scares the next rational person into doing the same.
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After seeing the drama over hand sanitizer I started going through the house collecting all the little bottles I've bought and forgot about over the years, and let me tell you I could make a fortune on Ebay if I wasn't hoarding them for myself 9
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DecadeDuchess wrote: »
I really wish that doctor's office waiting areas, wouldn't have toys because healthy children just there for their routine visit then play with the same toys, that the children that're there because they're sick then also play with.DecadeDuchess wrote: »
I really wish that doctor's office waiting areas, wouldn't have toys because healthy children just there for their routine visit then play with the same toys, that the children that're there because they're sick then also play with.
I understand where yr coming from, the same can be said for the magazines that are left for people to browse, especially sick adults who read them and don’t wash their hands. The toys at my clinic are wiped with antibacterial wipes at the end of the day and during lunch and some times the wait to see a dr, dependant on a patients needs, can be long so kids get really bored unfortunately and I guess that’s all clinics can do to help parents cope with bored kids. Teaching kids hand hygiene can help as far as playing with toys, there’s plenty of hand sanitizer at our clinic and we’ve put posters up reminding everyone to use it.1
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