Coronavirus prep

slimgirljo15 wrote: »

I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know

Sorry, sad thought I know

As a single person I actually feel a bit better off. Think about it is two people isolate together there is twice the chance of being infected to start and will infect other one.
I know i daily check in with my sister and her family so she would know but i am really on my own.

Also a friend pointed out all the romantic couples isolated together in December /January there is going to be a baby boom and 13 years later in 2034 we are going to see the rise of the Quaran-teens.

bmeadows380 wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

If we don't have enough tests, we're undertesting, and don't know whether the incidence of XYZ virus in the population is higher or lower than the (number of positive tests) divided by (number of tests) . . . but because we're rationing tests to the most severe cases, we're mostly testing highly symptomatic people and getting a high percentage of positive tests, compared to the number of test performed. And, because we're testing the most severe cases as more testing kits become available, the jump in confirmed cases is extra-dramatic.

so once we get a test that is widely available and can be used on much more people, the death toll percentage will fall and eventually level out to a more accurate number which could well be less than the 4-6% estimated now. Right?

(snip)

Death toll (if you mean fatality rate for the disease) is (number of people who die of the disease)/(number of people who have the disease). Right now, we don't know how many people have the disease.

Theoretically, the fatality rate could go up or down, compared to what's being stated now, because the denominator (number of people who have the disease) is unknown, and the numerator (number of people who die) is going to depend to some extent on things like whether the hospitals/health care system can keep up or are overwhelmed. Fewer people will die if the health care system can keep up.

Trying to help the health care system keep up by making cases happen slower (same number of cases, but over a longer time period) - that "flattening the curve" thing - is what's being attempted now via social distancing measures.

Different countries/regions will have different fatality rates for the same disease, depending on a number of variables, but one is whether the health system can keep up.

One thing for sure, math-wise: Once all of this is over, and this virus reduced (as we hope) to a normal, treatable, potentially preventable disease), we will have enough data to realistically estimate fatality rates for areas with good statistical infrastructure. Until then, it's a moving target, though as time progresses, the estimates should improve as more data rolls in.

At least that's my view.

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

cmriverside wrote: »

amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?

Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.

No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.

I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.

He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).

The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.

Maybe?

Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.

I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.

Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!

The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.

People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.

I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.

I found the explanation Ann relayed somewhat convincing, but this is the theory I've gone with in the past on TP: There are some people who just don't buy TP until they're almost out. During an emergency (like an impending blizzard or hurricane, or the coronavirus spread), all the people who might have ordinarily bought TP over the next 7 to 10 days are buying it in a 24- to 48-hours window, and the ones who usually wait until they're almost out are maybe buying an extra pack, when they would ordinarily buy just one. Now, packages of toilet paper are pretty large. It doesn't take many extra purchases above normal for the shelves to start to look bare, because they can only fit so many large packages on the shelves at once. Then people who don't really need TP, but who don't like to wait until they're almost out before they buy the next package, see the depleted shelves and think they better buy some before it's all gone. Over time, the knowledge that TP disappears ahead of storms or possible medical quarantines starts to sink in, and people start buying the TP defensively "just in case" during impending potential emergencies.

*** **** ***


I'm in the mid-Atlantic part of the U.S., and last weekend when I went to the grocery story, almost everything was still well-stocked, except you couldn't find hand sanitizer, and if you were particular about which brand of toilet paper you want, you might have been out of luck.

I went yesterday evening, which is usually an uncrowded time in the store (it was slightly busier than it might ordinarily be, but not in any way crowded. It was just a few hours after the president announced the national emergency, and it was a very different situation as far as stocked shelves. Still no hand sanitizer. No hand soap. Lots of gaps on the shelves with household cleaning products. I think the only thing left in the "commercial bakery" aisle were two or three packages of hamburger rolls, but I picked up a loaf of rye at the deli counter with no problem (hmm, were other people staying away from the deli counter because they didn't want to buy food they saw a human being handling?), and there was plenty of bread in the in-store bakery section (I admit I passed on serve-yourself bagels and muffins because who knows what the hygiene practices are of the people who served themselves before you).

But I was actually surprised in a weirdly pleasant way by some of the other things that were in short supply or sold out entirely. In the produce section, no bananas, potatoes, onions, one lone head of cabbage, only a few carrots (loose organic ones). I guess some of that was St. Patrick's Day effect (not the bananas, of course). Other than the bananas, that's produce that keeps well for a fairly long time. Lots of bare spots in the meat section (I didn't examine closely as I'm having a meatless Lent). Rice and beans (including dried beans) pretty much cleared out. Lots of bare spots in the dairy milk section, but I still scored some of that extra-protein Fairlife. And absolutely no in-the-shell eggs (a few cartons of liquid eggs were left).

The up-side I saw to that was that I had expected people stocking up on food would be going for canned soup, mac and cheese mix, prepared frozen meals, etc. I was weirdly happy to see evidence that some people were preparing to actually cook food from scratch while they were stuck home.

I was just making my regular weekly grocery run. I've always been one to keep nonperishables well-stocked in case of blizzards, power loss in summer, a car accident that leaves me without transportation for a while, a broken limb that makes shopping challenging, a sudden health emergency by a relative who depends on me to do whatever he wants done while he's in the hospital, etc., so I haven't felt any pressure to buy more or different things than I normally would buy, and I was able to get most of what I would normally buy, or make easy adjustments to something different (I don't normally buy Fairlife). OK, yesterday I did buy a little more junky comfort food in expectation of curling up with a book or video more often in the coming weeks.

I had hoped to get eggs, as I'm eating more eggs during my meatless Lent, plus it's possible I might do a little extra baking while I'm hanging out at home more than usual. I still have about a dozen, and I have some dried eggs I could use for baking, but I may try dropping by a farm or orchard market to see if they have any.

Trying to look on the upside and take social distancing as an opportunity to get things done around the house, relax a little, phone people I don't talk to as much as I should, stop and talk to neighbors (from a distance) instead of just waving and hurrying to do the next thing I think I have to do, etc.

This is the NZ prime minister's full statement from yesterday, if anyone is interested:

Jacinda Ardern
11 hrs ·
Another long but important update on COVID-19.

You may have seen that today we announced a range of major steps to further protect the health of New Zealanders and reduce the threat of transmission of COVID-19.

Below is what I said at the announcement, but if you’re short on time, the top things to note are:

1. We have increased New Zealand’s border restrictions. This now means that anyone entering New Zealand from any country aside from the Pacific Islands (listed below) is required to self-isolate for 14 days on arrival. This decision will mean New Zealand will have some of the widest ranging and toughest border restrictions in the world.

2. We also announced a temporary ban on all cruise ships coming into New Zealand. This will be in place from midnight tonight until at least 30 June 2020.

3. New border restrictions apply to people, not products. We will be working to ensure we keep freight routes open for imports and exports - so there’s no need to rush out and stock up at the supermarket.

4. Protecting New Zealanders health is our number one focus and we’re taking strong actions to respond to the changing global situation, however, all New Zealanders have a role to play in stopping further spread of the virus. Stay home if you’re unwell and keep up simple things like washing your hands and sneezing or coughing into your elbow.

5. We are also encouraging New Zealanders to avoid all non-essential travel overseas. This helps reduce the risk of a New Zealander bringing COVID-19 back with them.

Now for the long version…here is what I said at the press conference today. As always, any questions, do post them below.

Full Statement at Press Conference re Covid-19

Good afternoon

The full Cabinet met this afternoon to make a range of significant decisions to further protect the health of New Zealanders and reduce the threat of transmission of COVID-19 in New Zealand.

First I want to provide some context to our decisions.

New Zealand has to date, relative to other counties, a small number of cases. We have successfully managed to contact trace for every one of those cases, and are in the process of doing so for our latest one. This has been a critical part of our response.

Secondly, our smaller number of cases has helped us to manage them in the right place, and with the right support. The majority of our cases have not required our hospital system to care for them.
The key continues to be leaving our hospital system for those who need it most.

All of this points to one strategy which has guided our decision making - spread the cases, and flatten the curve.

It is not realistic for New Zealand to have only a handful of cases. The international evidence proves that is not realistic, and so we must plan and prepare for more cases.

But, the scale of how many cases we get and how fast we get them is something we should do as much as we can to slow. That is how we ensure health services are there for those who need them most.

That’s why we must go hard, and go early, and do everything we can to protect New Zealanders health.

That is exactly why, to tackle this global pandemic, Cabinet made far reaching and unprecedented decisions today.

As of midnight Sunday every person entering New Zealand, including returning New Zealand citizens and residents, will be required to enter self-isolation for 14 days.

The Pacific Islands ( the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu & Wallis and Futuna) are exempted from this measure, though anyone from these countries will be required to automatically self–isolate should they exhibit any COVID-19 symptoms upon arrival in New Zealand.

These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days time.

Alongside Israel, and a small number of Pacific Islands who have effectively closed their border, this decision will mean New Zealand will have the widest ranging and toughest border restrictions of any country in the world.

We are also encouraging New Zealanders to avoid all non-essential travel overseas. This help reduces the risk of a New Zealand bringing COVID-19 back with them.

We accept that for New Zealanders currently overseas this is a stressful time and we encourage any New Zealander needing consular assistance to contact the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In addition to restrictions on air travel we are also taking firm measures on cruise ships. As of midnight tonight we are issuing a directive to all cruise ships not to come to New Zealand until at least 30 June 2020, at which time the directive will be reviewed.

I want to be very clear - these measures are about people, not products. They do not apply to cargo ships or cargo planes or to marine or air crew, and we will be working to ensure we keep sea and air freight routes open for imports and exports.

In short, no one needs to conduct a run on their supermarket. It’s worth remembering that we’ve had travel restrictions on China for over a month, and those supply routes continue.

We are mindful that some items that come into New Zealand travel via passenger flights. That’s why support, where needed, will be provided to ensure that essential air freight like pharmaceuticals continue to be shipped into New Zealand.
We did not take these decisions lightly. We know these travel restrictions will place significant strain on the aviation industry, and we anticipate some routes will reduce or cease for a period of time.

As such the Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage and support airlines to remain active in New Zealand so that we can re-bound from the restrictions quickly and not have significant impacts on our tourism sector, exporters, and economy.

In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce an economic response including the business continuity package on Tuesday.

We are also stepping up our actions at the border as a key departure route to the Pacific. New Zealand has a huge sense of responsibility to support our Pacific neighbours.

As such strict new border exit measures for people travelling to the Pacific will be put in place and include:
• No travel for people who have travelled outside of New Zealand in the past 14 days,
• No travel for close or casual contacts of a confirmed case.
• No travel for anyone who is symptomatic
• Health assessment including temperature checks.

Taken as a whole, the border measures we are taking today will mean significantly more people will enter self-isolation, and supporting and facilitating that to occur is critical.

We are already registering all travellers into New Zealand, and healthline is monitoring the self-isolation process.
Today we instructed officials to step up enforcement of self isolation through measures such as spot checks. It is worth mentioning though, to date more than 10,500 people are or have successfully self-isolated in New Zealand. People know that it’s in the best interest of their community and they’re pulling together to look after one another

After all, the combination of restricting the virus coming here and isolating it when it does are two of the most important steps we can take to avoid community outbreak.
Given self-isolation is so important, we want to make it as easy as possible.

As such the Government will be introducing a range of measures to assist with self-isolation. Expect more on this early next week.

We will also increase community support to those unable to support themselves in isolation.

In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce a business continuity package next week, the Health Minister will announce a suite of additional health measures to scale up the responsiveness of our health system to the virus and a public information campaign will be launched.

Ultimately though, the best protection for the economy is containing the virus. A widespread outbreak will hurt our economy far more in the long run than short term measures to prevent a mass outbreak occurring.

These measures, while disruptive, are needed to make the space we need as a nation to prepare and manage the spread of COVID-19.

We all have obligations to limit the spread of the virus and basic health measures is are the heart of that.

However in order to limit the risk of community outbreak when people are in close proximity to each other we will also be announcing further guidelines on mass gatherings. For now, Pasifika and the 15 March Memorial have been cancelled. The guidance we will be developing more broadly on mass gatherings will be based on the following criteria:
- large numbers of people in close proximity
- Events where people are more likely to be in physical contact
- Events where participants have travelled from overseas
- And non ticketed events, where for instance there is no seat allocation making it difficult to contact trace
Again, advice and criteria on mass gatherings will be released next week. For those who need more immediate advice, they should contact their public health unit.

In conclusion, we have two choices as a nation. One is to let COVID-19 roll on, and brace.

The second is to go hard on measures to keep it out, and stamp it out - not because we can stop a global pandemic from reaching us, but because it is in our power to slow it down.

I make no apology for choosing the second path. New Zealanders public health comes first. If we have that, we can recover from the impacts on the economy, the impacts on tourism, and the impacts on our airline.

Finally, this is an unprecedented time. While we don’t have community transmission here, now is the time to prepare. And we can all play a role in that.

So here’s my request to New Zealanders
1) Wash your hands

2) If you don’t need to travel overseas, then don’t. Enjoy your own back yard for a time.

3) Wash your hands

4) If you’re sick, stay home.

5) If you sneeze, do it into your elbow

6) Wash your hands.

7) Stop handshakes, hugs, and hongi - I know this is counter to who we are as a nation, but the best thing we can do right now to show love and affection to one another, is to switch to the East Coast wave.

8)Please be mindful of the older citizens in your life. Check in on them, but if you’re sick, keep your distance

Finally, we are a tough resilient people. We have been here before. But our journey will depend on how we work together. We are taking every measure we need as a government, and we ask that you do to.
We all have a role to play. Look out for your neighbour, look out for your family. Look out for your friends.

slimgirljo15 wrote: »

I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know

Sorry, sad thought I know

Yes.

I belong to an international online group for "Elder Orphans": People over 55 living alone, with no spouse, partner, children, parents, siblings - at least not any close enough (geographically or emotionally) or able to be a support systems.

We have a number of issues that those with families don't (health care power of attorney, will and estate issues, even logistical stuff like making it to outpatient surgery if there's no one to drive us there and wait while the surgery happens, as many medical facilities now require; and much more).

I'm not whining at all, just describing; mostly, this is manageable. It's just non-standard.

In one of the local branches of my "Elder Orphan" group, a nurse/member is setting up pairs of people (who ask for this) to get each other's contact information, and commit to check in daily or on some other agreed basis, with instructions between the two of them about what to do if that contact can't be made.

This group includes people so isolated that they have few/no real-life relationships (sometimes because reasons ). But of course there are similar people without even online connections.

P.S. I have people in my real life, they're just not spouse, partner, etc., that count for belonging to this group.

slimgirljo15 wrote: »

I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know

Sorry, sad thought I know

As one of those people, I'm OK with that thought (for myself, anyway). I would call for an ambulance if I started having difficulty breathing. I telecommute, and a telecommuting colleague I email scores of times every day who lives nearby has promised to come over if I stop responding and pull me out when the corpse-barrow rolls by. ("But I'm not dead yet!").

lynn_glenmont wrote: »

Nony_Mouse wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

amusedmonkey wrote: »

cmriverside wrote: »

amusedmonkey, you're in NZ?

Your border protection is probably the best in the world. I hope all goes well.

No, I'm in Jordan, but I'm feeling hopeful because both the government and the people are taking this seriously. I'm also glad I'm not seeing any examples of extreme toilet paper hoarding lol - I still don't understand why toilet paper specifically.

I wish I had a link, but there was a kind of convincing comment on BBC World Service last night from a guest in an expert-talk segment.

He advanced an idea (that I won't clearly present here becaus it was kinda nuanced and I was listening while doing other stuff ).

The idea was that it has something to do with hard-wired fears of disease, association of disgust with disease, association of excretory functions with disgust, plus association of hygiene/cleanliness with self-protection/disease-avoidance . . . all at a sub-rational level. Then, poof, in a pandemic, we all go racing out to buy TP.

Maybe?

Kinda makes sense, although I can't really make that connection in my mind. I haven't felt the urge to buy toilet paper.

I was at the grocery shop today. Some shelves look a bit less stocked than usual, including toilet paper, but no empty shelves or long lines. Rice, sugar, flour, and beans seemed to have the most traffic. Bread bakeries are being hit the hardest by panicked people. Everyone wants to stock up on bread.

Clearly Jordanians are more sensible than the rest of the world!!

The TP thing is a sort of self fulfilling prophesy - some people start to buy in excess because who knows why the things Ann mentioned, it maybe gives a sense of control, etc, then fear of a shortage makes other people think they'd better stock up too, and thus actual shortage. Often when there is absolutely zero chance of actual shortage. Like, no one needs a trolley full of loo paper for two weeks, or even a month.

People who are worried about not being able to get yoghurt - make your own. It's ridiculously easy, you can use milk powder or shelf stable milk instead of fresh, and it is way, way cheaper.

I'm curious to see the effects of NZ's increased border control measures on the whole grocery shopping thing, whether people will feel reassured enough that we're not going to have what happened in Italy happen here, and ease up. Not that I've really seen any evidence of mass panic buying in my small town, other than loo paper having to be constantly restocked, but I think there's been more of it in Auckland, where all the cases are so far. People there went nuts as soon as the first case was announced.

I found the explanation Ann relayed somewhat convincing, but this is the theory I've gone with in the past on TP: There are some people who just don't buy TP until they're almost out. During an emergency (like an impending blizzard or hurricane, or the coronavirus spread), all the people who might have ordinarily bought TP over the next 7 to 10 days are buying it in a 24- to 48-hours window, and the ones who usually wait until they're almost out are maybe buying an extra pack, when they would ordinarily buy just one. Now, packages of toilet paper are pretty large. It doesn't take many extra purchases above normal for the shelves to start to look bare, because they can only fit so many large packages on the shelves at once. Then people who don't really need TP, but who don't like to wait until they're almost out before they buy the next package, see the depleted shelves and think they better buy some before it's all gone. Over time, the knowledge that TP disappears ahead of storms or possible medical quarantines starts to sink in, and people start buying the TP defensively "just in case" during impending potential emergencies.

This is the most reasonable explanation I've heard, and as someone who too often waits until I'm low before buying it resonates with me.

My local paper said that stores were saying that they simply couldn't keep that much TP in stock given how bulky it is so could run out easily with increased buying but would restock soon -- there's no real shortage.

I think it's important to be clear that, in my understanding, the aim of social distancing is not to stop the spread, just slow it down. It's almost assured that everyone will eventually be exposed to covid-19. The hope is to limit the number of cases in the beginning, when the medical community doesn't know much about it and treatment might still be a guessing game.

You can flatten out the curve to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, plus you can hopefully postpone many of the vulnerable from getting sick until best practices are proven and agreed upon, equipment is stockpiled, and perhaps even a vaccine becomes available. And depending on where you are in the world, an additional benefit might be allowing seasonal flu season to pass, freeing up resources to focus more on Coronavirus.


As my dad so elegantly put it on the phone yesterday, my mom decided to take the quick way down the stairs, so they had to go to the ER. The waiting room was relatively empty, everyone was constantly recoating themselves with sanitizer, and they rushed her through the process so they barely spent 45 mins there. And nothing was broken, thank goodness. But so far central VA is still seemingly not in crisis, while we all hide in our TP forts and wait to see how this is all going to pan out.