Coronavirus prep
Replies
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And a bit more gallows humor...
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lightenup2016 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick
(but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing![:\](https://community.myfitnesspal.com/en/resources/emoji/confused.png ":\")
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.
I know this is hard for a lot of people. Just take things a day at a time and you'll be fine. It just takes some organizing and you're doing what you can. Do you have a mask? They will be impossible to find and if you absolutely need to go out you should have one. Here in Italy it's impossible to find them and the Chinese experts that arrived the other day say that they see too many people without. You've done your best--you can do no more.
snowflake954–Thank you for your updates from Italy. My husband is Italian (living in USA) and has family there near Lago di Garda, among other places. I have a question for you—I feel like the US is closing everything down pretty early on (which I agree with!), with 60 or so deaths in the whole country at this point. Do you think we’re doing better than Italy did in the beginning? Did Italy wait until the cases and deaths were already pretty high per capita before shutting things down? Or do you feel like they did try to catch the spread early on? Thank you for any insight.
This is hard to answer--it seems like years have pasted since the beginning. First of all, this is a new thing and people didn't realize. Everything exploded when one or two people were infected up North. Their families were all tested and quarantined. Everybody thought OK, got it. The problem is tracing contact. Try and remember where you went 2 weeks ago and who you saw in those 2 weeks. I sure couldn't do it and you're interrogating a very sick person besides. All of a sudden a whole town where this guy lived (it's a small town in the mountains) was locked up in quarantine. Journalists and bloggers (some young guys) drove up there in the dead of night and got through the road blocks and were driving around town "to show that it could be done". There was a lot of hand slapping of these guys, but as you can see--quarantines have holes.
So then there were other cases here and there, and it just went like dominos. There weren't many deaths at first, and they all were compromised--had other health issues. This changed as more and more arrived at the emergency rooms. An ambulance driver said yesterday "We're used to seeing very sick people, but we have 40 to 70 arrive every afternoon". An ambulance driver died yesterday of COV19. I think they did their best in the beginning. The North is organized and has excellent health care.
As far as the States doing better, if all this stocking up on essentials mean people stay home--then yes. But you always have the naysayers that will travel around and spread it. I saw a photo of the Chicago airport, jam packed and almost fainted. You only need one or two in that crowd to have it. Hoards of people in stores is not a good idea--no groups. Watch Mass or your religious service on TV. Use common sense, stay calm and batten down the hatches.12 -
Here's a good (if somewhat dry) read on the mechanics of changing social behavior. The link is to a summary of the chapters. The author is Malcolm Gladwell and the title is
"The Tipping Point
How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference"
Even though it is was published in 2000 it's still remarkably relevant. I read it a few years ago and am planning to go through it again soon.
http://www.wikisummaries.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point#Chapter_1:_The_Three_Rules_of_Epidemics1 -
Another one is "Emergence" by Steven Johnson. Subtitled "The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software". Again, published in 2001 but still relevant. I freely admit I only got through the first couple of chapters, but I believe the first one explains toilet paper
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergence:_The_Connected_Lives_of_Ants,_Brains,_Cities,_and_Software0 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?2 -
cmriverside wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
As one of those people, I'm OK with that thought (for myself, anyway). I would call for an ambulance if I started having difficulty breathing. I telecommute, and a telecommuting colleague I email scores of times every day who lives nearby has promised to come over if I stop responding and pull me out when the corpse-barrow rolls by. ("But I'm not dead yet!").
We were talking about apocalypse movies and books...in the U.S. Monty Python In Search of the Holy Grail is on Netflix - I'm watching that today!!
We have a very large rabbit population in my neighborhood, so I'm not sure I need the anxiety of wondering if some of them have turned carnivorous.
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?20 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »On the bright side, Kroger just announced it's restricting number of things that people can buy to stop the hoarding and reselling of items like sanitizer and toilet paper.
My local Wal Mart did this as well. Thankful for that. However, our supply distributors are running out of stuff. They told us people who normally order 10 cases of soap are ordering 100. Well, almost every other college campus in the area is closed--what are they using the soap for? We're going to have to call other campuses and try and buy supplies before they close and everyone goes home. We still have people.
Smart and Final did this with dried beans (2 per customer) though bulk beans were either low or sold out. Not sure of other stuff as it was the only thing I bought aside of produce, canned tomatoes, and a few frozen meals.0 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you not believe that people who could recover with good medical care will die if the curve isn't flattened -- that is, if the number of people who need intensive medical care during the period when cases peak exceeds the number of ICU beds, respirators, medical personnel, and other resources needed to care for them?20 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?
I'm looking at data from those very people. The difference is that I'm willing to ignore when someone makes an emotional case instead of a factual case. This includes when those same leading people make a case that someone with a young child died from Covid-19 and therefore we must all cancel all gatherings of people. I also don't have a pilot's license, but when I see a helicopter in a tree, I know someone messed up.2 -
After a couple of days with a false sense of security and 0 cases, now 9 popped up in one day (mostly tourists who have been here for a while so it's very possible they have spread it). Maybe I should stock up on bread after all, who knows how crazy things will get.8
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I'm glad we semi-prepped early. We had already bought toilet paper, rice, beans, and soup before the chaos started. I'm surprised that mouthwash is also almost sold out. I had to settle for a different version today.2
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
The point is with all those cancellations, isn't to try to keep it from spreading, but slowing it down so that we don't have a medical community overwhelmed all at once. If we end up with 100,000 cases of severe enough to need ICU cases, we want to try to spread that out over the course of months, not have them all needing ventilators and such in the same 2 week period. By spreading it out, we actually save lives. And that's pure math and not an emotional response.
Which is why I am glad our governor has already taken steps to prepare for when the virus finally shows up here in WV; put measures in place now to try to slow it down as much as possible, especially as people have proven to be terrible at self-quarantining.
My church still had services this morning because we don't have a confirmed case yet, but weren't actively encouraging touching, either, and had plenty of hand sanitizer. The pastor also told us that while the church still intends to have services, its being taken day by day, and we will close our doors if necessary.
Still, I was rolling my eyes at the number of people in the church who aren't really taking this seriously at all. I think in West Virginia, because it's not here yet, a lot of people are just brushing it off.17 -
Update to previous post: They have just advised all gyms to close here.
Confirmed Cases in our province now at 35 from 24 yesterday and 17 two days ago.
Fortunately no confirmed community transmitted cases so I can't run any numbers here but it's a matter of time
Umm... Anyone have a squat rack they can disinfect and ship to me. 🙂7 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
The point is with all those cancellations, isn't to try to keep it from spreading, but slowing it down so that we don't have a medical community overwhelmed all at once. If we end up with 100,000 cases of severe enough to need ICU cases, we want to try to spread that out over the course of months, not have them all needing ventilators and such in the same 2 week period. By spreading it out, we actually save lives. And that's pure math and not an emotional response.
Which is why I am glad our governor has already taken steps to prepare for when the virus finally shows up here in WV; put measures in place now to try to slow it down as much as possible, especially as people have proven to be terrible at self-quarantining.
My church still had services this morning because we don't have a confirmed case yet, but weren't actively encouraging touching, either, and had plenty of hand sanitizer. The pastor also told us that while the church still intends to have services, its being taken day by day, and we will close our doors if necessary.
Still, I was rolling my eyes at the number of people in the church who aren't really taking this seriously at all. I think in West Virginia, because it's not here yet, a lot of people are just brushing it off.
I can see some benefit if that were actually happening, but the cancellations that have happened doesn't really do that. The U.S. government just gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion. If there will be an effective plan, then put some money aside to give everyone except medical workers a paid vacation and ask that we spend it at home.1 -
snowflake954 wrote: »
I know this is hard for a lot of people. Just take things a day at a time and you'll be fine. It just takes some organizing and you're doing what you can. Do you have a mask? They will be impossible to find and if you absolutely need to go out you should have one. Here in Italy it's impossible to find them and the Chinese experts that arrived the other day say that they see too many people without. You've done your best--you can do no more.
Thank you for your kind words. They mean a lot. Even with everything you are going through, you took the time. So thank you.
I do not have masks. Sadly I got rid of them all less then a year ago when I cleaned out the laundry room and decided to minimize my first aid kit because I just did not have the room. I kept the gloves though. Both were left over from before my mom passed from cancer.
So we have finally passed 100 people tested in Indiana and just got the first confirmed case in my county. There were already known cases in the county where I worked, but now we have the one where I live. With all the insanity happening this past week who knows who has had contact with people who carry the virus. The panic may have actually made things worse. I hope not.3 -
My youngest son works at our local Walmart. It’s his third or fourth thirteen hour day. The grocery side is packed with well over a hundred people. Truck came with tp earlier. He said it would probably be gone in less than an hour, based on the history at that store. When we are being encouraged to stay home and the like, we still have people crowding the supermarket. He said that people aren’t even walking regularly through the aisles. Sounds like mayhem.
Found this earlier today and it makes a lot of sense:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Made me feel a lot less paranoid about canceling dinner out plans last night. 🤷♀️
Also, while lengthy? A good read:
https://medium.com/@hjluks/covid-19-update-3-14-2020-a-message-from-concerned-physicians-33d00b88eefd
Stay safe and well! ❤️4 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?
I'm looking at data from those very people. The difference is that I'm willing to ignore when someone makes an emotional case instead of a factual case. This includes when those same leading people make a case that someone with a young child died from Covid-19 and therefore we must all cancel all gatherings of people. I also don't have a pilot's license, but when I see a helicopter in a tree, I know someone messed up.
But you're not looking at a helicopter in a tree. You're looking at a helicopter in the air and saying that the pilots and air traffic controllers are handling it wrong and it's going to end up in a tree.
Do you see what's going on in italy? Are you saying the data there shows this is nothing serious?
Could you post some sources that provide data that shows this is nothing to worry about? I see plenty of every day people posting online that covid-19 is just like the seasonal flu, with similar spread and fatality rates, but not saying where they saw those numbers. Meanwhile I see WHO, CDC, epidemiologists, and infectious disease researchers saying this is spreading very fast and has a fatality rate double that of seasonal flu or perhaps higher in places where the spike overwhelms the local health system.22 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »cmriverside wrote: »lynn_glenmont wrote: »
I had been hearing and reading statements from medical authorities saying they hoped, based on other viruses, that those who recover from covid 19 would have immunity for some period of time, but that so far they didn't have any idea how long that immunity might last. Lay questioners on talk shows seemed to assume that it was a question of whether immunity would last for just a few years (like vaccines that you need boosters for) or for essentially your whole life. but I noticed the experts' responses didn't seem to commit to even "a few years." I guess they were right.
ETA: on the other hand, from the article PAV8888 posted, it appears they've only seen one case of presumed reinfection so far, and it's not clear that this individual ever tested negative. just that they were discharged from the hospital after "showing signs of recovery." I don't know how they decide whether it's a (so-far) rare case of reinfection, or a (rare?) case of an individual who has remained infected for a long time without fully recovering, just going through ups and downs as their body fights the disease.
EATA: Unlike the headline and the paraphrasing by the writer, the actual quotes from medical experts in the story PAV8888 linked seem to be speaking about relapse, not reinfection from another individual.
Thanks for posting this...I feel the same way about the scare-mongering "news" articles but I'm tired and when I started posting a rebuttal to that, "You will re-catch it!!!!!!!!" article I was so tired yesterday...you said it all. That article was badly written and had zero science behind the known facts we have about how virus immunity works.
@MikePfirrman
Maybe you missed Just Em (moderator) who came in on the last page telling us to keep politics out of this.
I'm going to make an attempt today to not get into the "discussion" about it. Seattle continues to be scared. I have enough food and TP for a month.
Yeah. I need to stay out of this thread.
I'm actually pretty independent. Governor Dewine (a Republican) believed the scientists. I thought DeBlasio and Cuomo (both Dems) reacted too slow to shut things down in NYC. I was appauled that the subways weren't shut down. I'm for science, not party.
Dewine has taken the lead for response among governors and I've been impressed. What I'm against is saying "it's just the flu". Anyone that says that, regardless of party, is a moron.
I agree with you regarding the subway but it truly is the only way to get around NYC if you don't have a car. And a lot of "needed people", think health care workers, store stockers, etc need the subway. My son lives in NYC - he lives on Wall St but needs to get to his "client" - yes....still making him go there even though the office is shut down -- and he tried to get an UBer. It was a very long wait. He will most likely get the virus but I told him to try to wash his hands a lot and stay as far from people as possible.3 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »slimgirljo15 wrote: »I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know
Sorry, sad thought I know
Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.
Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.
But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.
On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.
Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.
I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?
I'm looking at data from those very people. The difference is that I'm willing to ignore when someone makes an emotional case instead of a factual case. This includes when those same leading people make a case that someone with a young child died from Covid-19 and therefore we must all cancel all gatherings of people. I also don't have a pilot's license, but when I see a helicopter in a tree, I know someone messed up.
But you're not looking at a helicopter in a tree. You're looking at a helicopter in the air and saying that the pilots and air traffic controllers are handling it wrong and it's going to end up in a tree.
Do you see what's going on in italy? Are you saying the data there shows this is nothing serious?
Could you post some sources that provide data that shows this is nothing to worry about? I see plenty of every day people posting online that covid-19 is just like the seasonal flu, with similar spread and fatality rates, but not saying where they saw those numbers. Meanwhile I see WHO, CDC, epidemiologists, and infectious disease researchers saying this is spreading very fast and has a fatality rate double that of seasonal flu or perhaps higher in places where the spike overwhelms the local health system.
Start with the joint China-WHO report. It has probably been linked somewhere in this thread. If not, it is probably the most-viewed document on the WHO's website.
Yes, it shows that this has a higher mortality rate than influenza. Whether it does or does not relevant from a practical perspective unless the question is whether any response of any level is worthwhile, even if as simple as more frequent hand-washing. I have yet to see one single person argue that no response at all should be taken. However, the emotional perspective is that the mortality rate is still quite low... maybe not as low as influenza, but still very low. And the point is that panic and emotional responses are ridiculous. My observation over the past weeks has been that some people think everyone is going to die. The point "it's similar to the flu" is not about the specific numbers, but the point that mortality rates are nowhere near the "everyone is going to die" level that some people appear to believe.
If the goal is containment, then the R0 value needs to be brought down below 1.0. This can be accomplished through some social isolation and restriction, but the economic impact will be phenomenal to do that. Currently, there is a lack of direction and enough things are being cancelled to possibly reduce the R0 value, but nowhere near less than 1.0. And we are going to pay a big economic price for something that isn't effective.
My view is that we need to collectively do 1 of 2 things (neither of which is a half-way approach as we see now):
1. Keep living life as normal and be prudent about cleaning surfaces, hand-washing, and responding if/when symptoms occur. This doesn't contain the virus, but it also doesn't carry a big economic price tag.
2. Cancel everything. The only people that work will be essential staff dealing with the outbreak. The government will need to help make this happen with economic compensation (i.e. like temporary unemployment) for those who cannot work from home. Also, a service will need to be established to help minimize store runs and provide needed resources to the majority of people who are staying at home. This may last for a month or more so that everybody who is/was infected is identified and treated before they can continue the spread. In doing this, there will be a big economic price tag (and I'm suggesting the government should help with that), even bigger than today's half-way approach. But at least this will allow the R0 value to reach below 1.0. And ultimately, in order to contain a fast-moving virus (regardless of mortality rate), the only thing that will be successful is to reduce the R0 below 1.0 for long enough.5 -
@T1DCarnivoreRunner I still disagree with your interpretation (mostly regarding the value of moderately slowing down infection rates), but thank you for answering my questions. :drinker:6
-
Nony_Mouse wrote: »
We are actually sick (but I know what you mean). I'm not sure if we're at higher risk of more severe viral symptoms or not, but I imagine the potential for a prolonged worsening of ME symptoms, even with a non-severe case, is high. I've only recently gotten back to a level of 'wellness' that, if I don't recover any further, I'm okay with, I bloody well refuse to be set back. So I totally get you on the wanting to be able to continue to eat well thing. I guess squeeze as much frozen vege into that wee freezer as you can?
I'm glad I don't have to deal with the level of crazy panic other countries are seeing
I was able to get my hands on some frozen veggies so right now I have 2.5 bags of broccoli, .5 bag of diced peas and carrots, 1 bag of cauliflower, 1 bag of broccoli and cauliflower mix, 1 bag of sliced carrots, and 1 bag of a broccoli/cauliflower/carrot mix. Each bag can last me a few meals. I have some frozen fruit, but not much and it will mostly get used up in oatmeal this week for breakfast. I also froze a loaf of bread and some sauteed mushrooms so they wouldn't go bad. I have a chicken to roast tonight that will feed me all week for dinners. I have plenty of food and will be okay even if I do get sick, plus I have family and friends who I know will help out any way they can.
My anxiety just makes it hard to handle a change to my schedule (as does my OCD). I am doing the best I can right now and thankfully was able to get an early refill of my meds. I do worry about getting this virus and then having a flare up of my CFS. There is no way I can miss THAT much work.
(((hugs))) I know anxiety makes this harder (one of the reasons I'm very thankful for the way this is being handled in NZ, but I'm anxious for other reasons atm). You are prepped, you know what you need to do to keep yourself safe
If you need to chat with another anxiety-suffering, ME/CFSer, please feel free to reach out to me anytime xx6 -
We have been told that the data coming out of Northern Italy says that the virus is targeting males especially more than women. Children are being affected very little. Men, especially over 60, but we've had deaths of 40 yr olds. One was an ambulance driver. Milan is converting a huge building from their Worlds Fair several years ago into a hospital.11
-
snowflake954 wrote: »We have been told that the data coming out of Northern Italy says that the virus is targeting males especially more than women. Children are being affected very little. Men, especially over 60, but we've had deaths of 40 yr olds. One was an ambulance driver. Milan is converting a huge building from their Worlds Fair several years ago into a hospital.
That's really interesting. I think the statistics from China show the same skew. I believe the theory was that in China there are considerably more male smokers than female, but of course that's just speculation based on a single population.9 -
I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?0
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RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.0 -
snowflake954 wrote: »RetiredAndLovingIt wrote: »I had read the same thing about smokers. Does Italy have a lot of smokers?
Yes. Young ones too.
Are smokers (or heavy smokers) disproportionately male in Italy, as they were in China?0 -
NYC schools closed starting tomorrow until at least April 20th.6
-
I caught up with a couple of ex colleagues over lunch today. One of them just emailed that a person who works in her building on the floor below tested positive today. He was last in the office on Tuesday. She might have shared the lift with him. It's been suggested everyone at lunch monitor their temperature.9
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