Coronavirus prep

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  • RCPV
    RCPV Posts: 342 Member
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    @kimny72, hahaha! Thanks for that bit of levity. :D
  • mph323
    mph323 Posts: 3,565 Member
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    Here's a good (if somewhat dry) read on the mechanics of changing social behavior. The link is to a summary of the chapters. The author is Malcolm Gladwell and the title is
    "The Tipping Point
    How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference"
    Even though it is was published in 2000 it's still remarkably relevant. I read it a few years ago and am planning to go through it again soon.

    http://www.wikisummaries.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point#Chapter_1:_The_Three_Rules_of_Epidemics
  • mph323
    mph323 Posts: 3,565 Member
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    Another one is "Emergence" by Steven Johnson. Subtitled "The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software". Again, published in 2001 but still relevant. I freely admit I only got through the first couple of chapters, but I believe the first one explains toilet paper :D

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergence:_The_Connected_Lives_of_Ants,_Brains,_Cities,_and_Software
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
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    lkpducky wrote: »
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    Psychgrrl wrote: »
    slimgirljo15 wrote: »
    I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know :(

    Sorry, sad thought I know

    Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.

    Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.

    But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.

    On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.

    Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
    are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
    The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.

    I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?
  • Katmary71
    Katmary71 Posts: 6,553 Member
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    Psychgrrl wrote: »
    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    On the bright side, Kroger just announced it's restricting number of things that people can buy to stop the hoarding and reselling of items like sanitizer and toilet paper.

    My local Wal Mart did this as well. Thankful for that. However, our supply distributors are running out of stuff. They told us people who normally order 10 cases of soap are ordering 100. Well, almost every other college campus in the area is closed--what are they using the soap for? We're going to have to call other campuses and try and buy supplies before they close and everyone goes home. We still have people.

    Smart and Final did this with dried beans (2 per customer) though bulk beans were either low or sold out. Not sure of other stuff as it was the only thing I bought aside of produce, canned tomatoes, and a few frozen meals.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    lkpducky wrote: »
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    Psychgrrl wrote: »
    slimgirljo15 wrote: »
    I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know :(

    Sorry, sad thought I know

    Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.

    Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.

    But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.

    On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.

    Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
    are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
    The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.

    I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?

    Do you have some kind of professional or educational background that leads you to believe that you know how this virus will affect the population better than the world's leading epidemiologists and global health organizations?

    I'm looking at data from those very people. The difference is that I'm willing to ignore when someone makes an emotional case instead of a factual case. This includes when those same leading people make a case that someone with a young child died from Covid-19 and therefore we must all cancel all gatherings of people. I also don't have a pilot's license, but when I see a helicopter in a tree, I know someone messed up.
  • DancingMoosie
    DancingMoosie Posts: 8,613 Member
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    I'm glad we semi-prepped early. We had already bought toilet paper, rice, beans, and soup before the chaos started. I'm surprised that mouthwash is also almost sold out. I had to settle for a different version today.
  • T1DCarnivoreRunner
    T1DCarnivoreRunner Posts: 11,502 Member
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    bmeadows380 wrote: »
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    lkpducky wrote: »
    T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »
    Psychgrrl wrote: »
    slimgirljo15 wrote: »
    I can't help but wonder about the single people with no family or close friends to check on them, in self isolation who get sick.. laying in bed progressively getting worse.. may die there with nobody to know :(

    Sorry, sad thought I know

    Thanks--that's me. Though not in isolation and still going to work. Single and NOT so ready to mingle any more.

    Same here, though I suppose I would be working form home if I were self-quarantined. Someone would eventually notice that I'm not online, no longer responding to emails, etc.

    But then again, this risk is there with or without Covid-19. As a type 1 diabetic, it is entirely possible that I just don't wake up one day due to a hypoglycemic event while sleeping. In fact, this has happened a few times over the years. Last time, a co-worker and friend noticed I didn't show up to work and knows about that risk. Back in 2009 when I was unemployed, this happened once and I "lost" about 2 weeks (but I didn't die at least). Perhaps my less concerned view on Covid-19 is because I focus on data rather than emotions and panic. Perhaps it is because the risk of dying is something that I am more acutely conscious of than most people Even though the risk of dying from Covid-19 is rather small, I get the sense that a whole lot of people believe otherwise. Since that is new to those people, maybe that is what is drawing panic.

    On the other hand, I'm not convinced that I'll care after I die whether I was alone or asleep at the time or with others and/or awake.

    Physicians and scientists such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and the people in this article (UC San Francisco) https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/03/416906/why-experts-are-urging-social-distancing-combat-coronavirus-outbreak
    are not advising social distancing on the basis of emotions and panic. Please look at their definition of "reproductive number" and what it means as far as the spread.
    The more it spreads, the more likely that those at higher risk of dying will get it.

    I can believe that more people will die if more people get it. That is basic math. Much of the data I have seen indicates many and possibly most of us will get it anyway. It also isn't clear how long immunity lasts once an infected person recovers (as most do). It sounds like the logical expectation is that most will get it at some point, recover, and eventually get it again. Since that sounds exactly like the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and many other illnesses that spread around; I'm not sure if I can see a lot of benefit from cancelling everything. I can see a small benefit, but it is going to be limited at best. When schools and day carees cancel, a lot of kids are going to end up hanging out at the library or at a recreation center or something. If the goal is to limit person-to-person contact, then it will fail. The underlying result of shutting everything down will become an economic nightmare. And yes, people will die in the future when people become poor and can't afford basic essentials. How many lives are being saved and how many lives are being destroyed and lost in the future because of cancellations that don't actually limit person-to-person contact much, if any, in the end?

    The point is with all those cancellations, isn't to try to keep it from spreading, but slowing it down so that we don't have a medical community overwhelmed all at once. If we end up with 100,000 cases of severe enough to need ICU cases, we want to try to spread that out over the course of months, not have them all needing ventilators and such in the same 2 week period. By spreading it out, we actually save lives. And that's pure math and not an emotional response.

    Which is why I am glad our governor has already taken steps to prepare for when the virus finally shows up here in WV; put measures in place now to try to slow it down as much as possible, especially as people have proven to be terrible at self-quarantining.

    My church still had services this morning because we don't have a confirmed case yet, but weren't actively encouraging touching, either, and had plenty of hand sanitizer. The pastor also told us that while the church still intends to have services, its being taken day by day, and we will close our doors if necessary.

    Still, I was rolling my eyes at the number of people in the church who aren't really taking this seriously at all. I think in West Virginia, because it's not here yet, a lot of people are just brushing it off.

    I can see some benefit if that were actually happening, but the cancellations that have happened doesn't really do that. The U.S. government just gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion. If there will be an effective plan, then put some money aside to give everyone except medical workers a paid vacation and ask that we spend it at home.
  • Athijade
    Athijade Posts: 3,243 Member
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    snowflake954 wrote: »

    I know this is hard for a lot of people. Just take things a day at a time and you'll be fine. It just takes some organizing and you're doing what you can. Do you have a mask? They will be impossible to find and if you absolutely need to go out you should have one. Here in Italy it's impossible to find them and the Chinese experts that arrived the other day say that they see too many people without. You've done your best--you can do no more.

    Thank you for your kind words. They mean a lot. Even with everything you are going through, you took the time. So thank you.

    I do not have masks. Sadly I got rid of them all less then a year ago when I cleaned out the laundry room and decided to minimize my first aid kit because I just did not have the room. I kept the gloves though. Both were left over from before my mom passed from cancer.

    So we have finally passed 100 people tested in Indiana and just got the first confirmed case in my county. There were already known cases in the county where I worked, but now we have the one where I live. With all the insanity happening this past week who knows who has had contact with people who carry the virus. The panic may have actually made things worse. I hope not.
  • juliemouse83
    juliemouse83 Posts: 6,663 Member
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    My youngest son works at our local Walmart. It’s his third or fourth thirteen hour day. The grocery side is packed with well over a hundred people. Truck came with tp earlier. He said it would probably be gone in less than an hour, based on the history at that store. When we are being encouraged to stay home and the like, we still have people crowding the supermarket. He said that people aren’t even walking regularly through the aisles. Sounds like mayhem.

    Found this earlier today and it makes a lot of sense:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

    Made me feel a lot less paranoid about canceling dinner out plans last night. 🤷‍♀️

    Also, while lengthy? A good read:

    https://medium.com/@hjluks/covid-19-update-3-14-2020-a-message-from-concerned-physicians-33d00b88eefd

    Stay safe and well! ❤️
  • bearly63
    bearly63 Posts: 734 Member
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    MikePfirrman wrote: »
    cmriverside wrote: »
    lynn_glenmont wrote: »
    PAV8888 wrote: »
    Nice, not :disappointed:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2

    I had been hearing and reading statements from medical authorities saying they hoped, based on other viruses, that those who recover from covid 19 would have immunity for some period of time, but that so far they didn't have any idea how long that immunity might last. Lay questioners on talk shows seemed to assume that it was a question of whether immunity would last for just a few years (like vaccines that you need boosters for) or for essentially your whole life. but I noticed the experts' responses didn't seem to commit to even "a few years." I guess they were right.

    ETA: on the other hand, from the article PAV8888 posted, it appears they've only seen one case of presumed reinfection so far, and it's not clear that this individual ever tested negative. just that they were discharged from the hospital after "showing signs of recovery." I don't know how they decide whether it's a (so-far) rare case of reinfection, or a (rare?) case of an individual who has remained infected for a long time without fully recovering, just going through ups and downs as their body fights the disease.

    EATA: Unlike the headline and the paraphrasing by the writer, the actual quotes from medical experts in the story PAV8888 linked seem to be speaking about relapse, not reinfection from another individual.

    Thanks for posting this...I feel the same way about the scare-mongering "news" articles but I'm tired and when I started posting a rebuttal to that, "You will re-catch it!!!!!!!!" article I was so tired yesterday...you said it all. That article was badly written and had zero science behind the known facts we have about how virus immunity works.




    @MikePfirrman
    Maybe you missed Just Em (moderator) who came in on the last page telling us to keep politics out of this.


    I'm going to make an attempt today to not get into the "discussion" about it. Seattle continues to be scared. I have enough food and TP for a month.

    Yeah. I need to stay out of this thread. :lol:

    I'm actually pretty independent. Governor Dewine (a Republican) believed the scientists. I thought DeBlasio and Cuomo (both Dems) reacted too slow to shut things down in NYC. I was appauled that the subways weren't shut down. I'm for science, not party.

    Dewine has taken the lead for response among governors and I've been impressed. What I'm against is saying "it's just the flu". Anyone that says that, regardless of party, is a moron.

    I agree with you regarding the subway but it truly is the only way to get around NYC if you don't have a car. And a lot of "needed people", think health care workers, store stockers, etc need the subway. My son lives in NYC - he lives on Wall St but needs to get to his "client" - yes....still making him go there even though the office is shut down -- and he tried to get an UBer. It was a very long wait. He will most likely get the virus but I told him to try to wash his hands a lot and stay as far from people as possible.

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