Coronavirus prep

SuzySunshine99 wrote: »

A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”

Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?

Yes, I have seen people complaining online about restrictions in our area (Minnesota) because they don't know anyone who has been sick. I don't understand how they can't put two and two together.

SuzySunshine99 wrote: »

A pollster in Pennsylvania was quoted as predicting that people will look back at the shutdowns and say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?”

Can people seriously not wrap their heads around the fact that if "not that many people" die, it will be BECAUSE of the shutdowns? That they worked as intended?

Absolutely, they are that clueless.

It was not (mostly) a deadly situation, but I keep trying to tell young'uns about the parallel with the year 2000 panic: Lots (lots) of doom talk in advance (for several years), talking about how the power grid could drop, banking system collapse, rioting and looting result, etc. There were conspiracy theorists and preppers filling up bunkers with shelf-stable food and ammo, at the fringe - no lie.

That didn't happen, because the people who needed to work their (bleeps) off - like me and my IT colleagues - beat the bejeepers out of ourselves working hard and steadily for several years, collaborating to test things across industries and supply chains, change or replace all the systems that might fail so they wouldn't, stay up all night at the end to monitor and fix anything missed, etc.

Aftermath: A little bit of surprise, a lot of popular "see, it wasn't really a crisis after all, it was just a big lie". I literally (and I mean "literally" literally, not figuratively!) foam at the mouth if someone my own age tries to say that, these days.

If some people don't see something, it's unpersuasive. And seeing "people not dying from a virus" or "hospitals not being overwhelmed in most places" is not "seeing something". Seeing nothing is unpersuasive.

Sometimes, it goes beyond that: For some people, if they don't suffer personally because of something, it's unpersuasive, even if they see other people suffer. (AIDS crisis, back in the 1980s, anyone? 🙄 Thousands dying awful deaths. General societal "meh" reaction, for way too long.)

MarieBuch10 wrote: »

@AnnPT77 I don’t want to derail this thread but I personally would be very interested in hearing more about your experience with the “year 2000” panic. Don’t know if you’ve ever talked about this in depth on one of these boards, but if you were to post about it it would be very interesting! I was 4 at the time so have only vague memories of my mom sending me in to the basement to dip into her stockpile in the months after whatever should have happened, did not lol

If you have specific questions beyond this one post, feel free to send me a friend request and message me. I'd answer questions on this thread if they have any relevance to the current situation, but I'm not sure what you have in mind.

I'm not sure what else I can say without prompting by questions: What it amounts to is that literally thousands (probably tens or hundreds of thousands) of IT professionals spent quite literally millions of person-years and dollars, to make sure the technology-enabled parts of the world kept ticking along reliably. That effort was invisible to people outside that group (and maybe their families, because often long hours on the job!). The doom-predicting nonsense, on the other hand, was very visible to the average person.

When doom didn't occur, the average person was inclined to think there had been no reason for worry. In one sense, there hadn't been great reason to worry, because behind the scenes smart, hardworking people were doing what needed to be done. But it wasn't unusual for non-IT-connected people to think, afterwards, it was just that there had never been a problem in the first place.

The core of the problem was this: In the very early days of data systems, data storage (like disks) was very limited, and very, very expensive (hard to believe now, but true). Many systems started out on computer cards, literally paper cards, each of which could only handle 80 characters of data (half a pre-character-increase Tweet, approximately ). One method for minimizing need for storing data was to store dates with a 2 digit year, the US form being like YYMMDD. Few systems had data going back to pre-1900; those very few that did might have used YYYYMMDD instead.

The systems that needed to know relative timing of things (basically all of them, right down to every piece of networking hardware, for reasons I won't go into) sorted and compared on the 2 YY digits. At January 1, 2000, the date would've been 010101. Systems needed to know that that's later than 991231, but it would look like it was earlier if just compared/sorted numerically. Very bad consequences, if that happened. All the doom-y stuff.

Early system designers weren't idiots; they were working within the constraints of the technology at the time, never imagining that systems from the 1950s would be kept around until after 1999, patched with the technology equivalent of baling twine and duct tape to keep running.

But businesses don't like to spend money on stuff that's "already working fine" unless they must, so data storage was conserved stingily early on, and the old card systems were eventually put onto disks without the very-expensive redesign and rebuilding to modernize them. They were just transferred over as is, onto a new medium. (Many people don't realize that a normal business system represent the same scale of person-hours to create and update as it takes to design, build and remodel giant office buildings, because the systems are invisible, but they can see the buildings.)

Everything had to be revamped to use YYYYMMDD. It required changes in pretty much every program everywhere, except for a few more recently-programmed systems, then retesting all the interconnections of programs (including the newer ones) globally to make sure they still played together nicely. Took absurd amounts of time. But it worked. Doom was averted, and disbelievers (who in their guts knew better than experts, just as they do today) sprouted like Spring dandelions.

So, that's my insider version of the story. On this thread, if there are questions that seem quite related to the current crisis, I'll answer them. Otherwise, please friend me (so PM is more likely to work) and PM me.

One relevant aside: The things we're hearing lately, about the unemployment compensation systems failing under overload, and a call for programmers who know the antique COBOL programming language in order to help fix them, is an example of a consequence of organizations being willing to limp along with old systems as long as they keep working, rather than spending lotsa money to do pretty much the same thing, but in a more catastrophe-resistant way. Organizations prefer to spend money on systems that will deliver new services or features; they don't want to spend on back-office stuff that appears from the executive suite (or legislature, or average taxpayer perspective) to be working just fine. If these were buildings, folks would see them crumbling. Systems are invisible.

“Many of you continue to disregard the safety of our elders by not adhering to these measures,” he said. “Your grandparents love you unconditionally, and depend on the love you have for them to conduct yourself and behave in a proper way."

“It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that the Northern Arapaho tribe confirms the deaths of four of our own who tested positive for coronavirus,” Lee Spoonhunter said. “Two of the four were precious elders who were fortunate to have reached their fourth ridge of life."

I drove by the grocery store and the parking lot was loaded with in-state and out-of-state vehicles. I found it repulsive. There's no social distancing. It's been a free-for-all situation since the beginning. We don't have a stay at home order. Hair salons and gyms will be opening back up. If you think about it, the same plastic capes are used, arm rests aren't wiped down. I can't tell you how many use the same pair of scissors, same combs and brushes on customer after customer. I've been going to these places for years and haven't witnessed any of their tools changed out between customers while I've been waiting.

This is just one small item swimming in the sharky waters. Manicures. Pedicures. No cures. I know some want to jump right back in for the economy but I don't think rushing is worth our safety and comfort.

If some people don't see something, it's unpersuasive. And seeing "people not dying from a virus" or "hospitals not being overwhelmed in most places" is not "seeing something". Seeing nothing is unpersuasive.

Ann I haven't quoted your whole post and its interesting paralells to Covid 19 crisis - but yes I can see exactly this same phenomenon in area in which I work

Vaccinations: what can be seen: minor side effects like sore arm, redness, swelling, muscle ache
What can't be seen; no case of polio, tetanus, measles etc

Along with, like Covid restrictions, some The government cant tell me what to do, its not a nanny state, type thinking

So I won't get my children/myself vaccinated because I had a really sore arm afterwards and the government cant tell me what to do and and nobody gets polio/tetanus/measles these days anyway

paperpudding wrote: »

If some people don't see something, it's unpersuasive. And seeing "people not dying from a virus" or "hospitals not being overwhelmed in most places" is not "seeing something". Seeing nothing is unpersuasive.

Ann I haven't quoted your whole post and its interesting paralells to Covid 19 crisis - but yes I can see exactly this same phenomenon in area in which I work

Vaccinations: what can be seen: minor side effects like sore arm, redness, swelling, muscle ache
What can't be seen; no case of polio, tetanus, measles etc

Along with, like Covid restrictions, some The government cant tell me what to do, its not a nanny state, type thinking

So I won't get my children/myself vaccinated because I had a really sore arm afterwards and the government cant tell me what to do and and nobody gets polio/tetanus/measles these days anyway

Or as someone posted on one of my neighbor bulletin boards "We all had measles and mumps and survived nicely, we even had mumps parties. I don't know anyone who died from them"
Well, does that mean you don't take medications because you didn't know any of the people in the clinical trials?

So there was a rally in one of our towns with one person declaring "They didn't die of it....They died with it." They were all going to die within 6 months anyway. They were sick to begin with."

As my grandfather used to say, 'There's so many brains in this place because no one is using any.'

Someone in my family was very, very sick in the middle of January. On the first part of this journey when this thread started I asked if shingle/pneumonia/flu shots could help someone recover from Covid. I was clinging to hope. We had no idea what it was and we still don't.

We threw everything UP against the wall hoping that something would stick and make them well. I've been here night and day doing everything I know how to do to help them. We went to the doctor and there's been 3 rounds of antibiotics/prednisone. They've had all of their shots. Pneumonia booster shots, the works and we have an oxygen machine.

There were weeks of sitting in a recliner with that tight band around the chest feeling. I know how they were exposed; from a home business with people who don't believe in any kind of vacs for themselves or their kids. They depend on everyone else to give them protection but their doors are always wide open for business. They send their kids to school and claim religious exemption just so they don't have to have any vacs. None. Zero. Zip.

Until those antibody tests are available we won't have any idea what's really going on. My town was only given 4 tests and one was used so there's only 3 left. There's no testing and without that the numbers are so superficially low giving everyone such a false sense of security.

So many things about this mess give me a really big pinch, including 'they were all going to die anyway.' Now, I tell you true, I have a very uneasy feeling about everything opening back up.

Diatonic12 wrote: »

So there was a rally in one of our towns with one person declaring "They didn't die of it....They died with it." They were all going to die within 6 months anyway. They were sick to begin with."

As my grandfather used to say, 'There's so many brains in this place because no one is using any.'

Oh that is really stupid.

I don't think many, if any, people who died of coronavirus actually died of an unrelated heart attack or MVA or something that would count as with it rather than from it.

And obviously I don't know the details of all people who died everywhere.

I do know of the 4 who died in my state - people in their 60's and 70's who were quite fit and healthy: 2 had travelled on a cruise, 1 had travelled Interstate to a wedding, 1 had been working in a place that tourists visited.

Hardly end of life sick people who would of died in 6 months anyway

lemurcat2 wrote: »

I don't think you can order COVID-19 tests from the internet currently.

You can order anything from the internet, I think.

Legally?
That actually works (valid, reliable)?

Well . . . maybe we can't be picky about details.

People are desperate. Other people will exploit that.

It's like the "cancer cures" gray-to-black market, where the US federal and state governments, in normal times, do a fairly speedy and aggressive job playing whack-a-mole. But a new one pops up every minute. I assume the COVID tests (and cures) will have a lot of that, even if/after genuine ones become available, let alone now.