Coronavirus prep
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@Diatonic12 - I suspect I live in a timezone that is several hours ahead of yours.
And if you are where I think you are, then you were certainly posting early.
I've been having to work from the office full-time (or nearly so) for several months. We just completed a major project, so have been able to dial it back to 50% from the home office, so I have a little more leeway to play on MFP during breaks.
Slightly off-topic, but I've discovered some interesting challenges thanks to working from home due to COVID. I tend to sit on a futon in my office with my laptop on a stool in front of me to work. One of my incredibly large dogs somehow managed to wedge herself between the back of the futon and me just now. She's lumpy, but surprisingly comfy and warm to lean on while I'm working. At least for now...
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Good news from Eli Lilly on its antibody development, but I'm being cautious. Even 72% reduction in risk is not enough IMO. Considering we are approaching 1 million world-wide deaths in a matter of months (not years), a 72% reduction is just not enough. It is a good start, though.
Ely Lilly Claims Experimental Drug Protects Covid-19 Patients https://nyti.ms/2FGW3Pg2 -
Related to what @T1DCarnivoreRunner posted the other day. Looking like we're all in good shape, LOL. It's the science deniers that are in big trouble. Could also mean that the vaccine search isn't going all that well.
https://news.yahoo.com/video/cdc-director-redfield-suggests-masks-164608773.html5 -
No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality."
All is good, isn't it? 5 -
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No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.11 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Some are saying only 43% now would be necessary. Look, I'm not for herd immunity. It's just happening as a result of very poor communicated messages on mask wearing and people just disregarding common sense. I do think we might hit 600K or 700K dead before it's all said and done, but I don't think that the original projections of 2M dead to reach Herd Immunity is accurate. And as far as the 70%, we simply don't know how many might have had enough exposure while wearing masks to already have immunity.
You could be right about exposure not meaning immunity. But I think with the T cell information (being more effective and longer term and antibodies), I do think that most that have had it will have long term protection. It seems to be gaining traction that this is the case.
Sweden's rates of infection are now below pre pandemic levels. Dropping rapidly.0 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."1 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
I certainly hope that's the case...I guess I'm just pessimistic lately. I didn't used to be; I've been an optimist all my life, but now I just expect the worst all the time.
I'm just worried that people will start to assume things about their potential immunity, and use that as an excuse to engage in risky behavior (not referring to you, personally, just "people" in general).
I have heard people say things like, "Oh, I had a sore throat back in April, so that was probably it, so now I'm probably immune". Even the antibody tests make me nervous...I think it can give people a false sense of security.
Any potential vaccine is going to be the same problem...if it's 50 percent effective, it can likely get approved. But, I see people who get the vaccine then thinking that they are invincible.
Ugh, this is why I can't sleep at night.10 -
@SuzySunshine99 - your pessimism is understandable, completely so. I worry about my siblings a lot. At least one, one of the most at risk, is also science denier (ironic because she's a nurse but believes politicians over science). All you can do is you. The good news is that if you're doing everything they recommend -- not eating inside, not going to a gym, not going to crowded events or parties and wearing a mask -- and it sounds like you follow all of those guidelines, then you're doing really well.
What's going to happen to many that think this is behind us this Fall and Winter will be terrible. But there's no stopping that train because it's long left the station. At this stage, if you still don't get how dangerous this is, as tragic as it sounds, the herd might need to be culled.
We are at Jonestown levels X 1000 here with the mass destruction/suicide. Except the Cool-Aid is not literal. One of my close relatives passed this past week. She was well over 80 and very few in her family believes this is serious stuff. No testing and no reason given why she passed except "she couldn't breathe". I can't be certain and I would never likely mention it, but I'm pretty sure I know what she had. It will never show up in the stats either.5 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »@SuzySunshine99 - your pessimism is understandable, completely so. I worry about my siblings a lot. At least one, one of the most at risk, is also science denier (ironic because she's a nurse but believes politicians over science). All you can do is you. The good news is that if you're doing everything they recommend -- not eating inside, not going to a gym, not going to crowded events or parties and wearing a mask -- and it sounds like you follow all of those guidelines, then you're doing really well.
What's going to happen to many that think this is behind us this Fall and Winter will be terrible. But there's no stopping that train because it's long left the station. At this stage, if you still don't get how dangerous this is, as tragic as it sounds, the herd might need to be culled.
We are at Jonestown levels X 1000 here with the mass destruction/suicide. Except the Cool-Aid is not literal.
Unfortunately, the nature of this virus is that it's not necessarily the poorly-behaved/science deniers who are culled. Most people live through the virus, which includes most who get it because they're poorly behaved. The people they spread it to may be doing the right things, but happen to be a neighbor who is older and has a lung condition, or a teacher at the kids' school who is diabetic, or the care aide at their granny's assisted living facility. Who they infect is a crapshoot.
ETA: The local superspreader even in the college town bar started with 18-29 y/o people (or maybe it was 18-28). The secondary cases were age 16 to 60s, so scooped in people at higher risk of severe cases, but who didn't themselves do the stupid stuff. (I don't know if there were any fatalities in that group. Some of the anecdotes illustrated that they had no way to know what the young person had done, so were unaware of the increased risk.)8 -
SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
https://www.mic.com/p/could-your-mask-act-as-a-coronavirus-vaccine-33454066
This part of the article speaks to what you and I are talking about. You're right, we simply don't know but I'd like to be optimistic.
"Using variolation as a method of creating immunity presumes that being exposed to smaller amounts of the virus will lead to less serious illness and that mild cases of COVID-19 will create lasting protection, the New York Times reported. We can’t be sure of either of these, as research into the disease is still new."
I certainly hope that's the case...I guess I'm just pessimistic lately. I didn't used to be; I've been an optimist all my life, but now I just expect the worst all the time.
I'm just worried that people will start to assume things about their potential immunity, and use that as an excuse to engage in risky behavior (not referring to you, personally, just "people" in general).
I have heard people say things like, "Oh, I had a sore throat back in April, so that was probably it, so now I'm probably immune". Even the antibody tests make me nervous...I think it can give people a false sense of security.
Any potential vaccine is going to be the same problem...if it's 50 percent effective, it can likely get approved. But, I see people who get the vaccine then thinking that they are invincible.
Ugh, this is why I can't sleep at night.
My understanding from listening to people who have specialized in virus research and are working on covid is that herd immunity without a vaccine will take years and millions of deaths. They are however quite optimistic that a vaccine that is "effective enough" will start to be available next year. While it will shorten the time to reach possible herd immunity, that will still take longer than we want it to, but should dramatically reduce infections and deaths as we go. Regardless, masks will be an issue for the foreseeable future, so our ability to normalize them will be IMHO key!
As bad as things got in NY, I saw something extrapolating the numbers based on deaths, tests, and sewage testing suggested not even 30% of the population was infected. And the Red Cross just announced that less than 3% of the donors theyve tested for antibodies across the US were positive. Obviously that's a limited sample size of only healthy people who are willing and able to donate. But not an impressive number.
We need a vaccine and honestly I'm really optimistic we'll get it. I share your worry that not enough people will come around to accepting masking up and innovating distancing into our everyday lives until then though!7 -
@AnnPT77 -- I agree there will be lives lost that don't need to be lost and some by no fault of their own, tragically. No argument there. It's already happening now. I just don't see how it's avoidable in the current environment.0
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I took my dear sweet mother to the doctor. There's a person at the front desk who doesn't believe in any of this and everything else that's shared on this thread. She told my mother, 'You've got such a pretty face and you don't look your age but I can't see it.' You know me enough by now, I would fight like hail for any of my folkaronies. It took everything I had to keep my mouth shut. I knew what she was getting at but I love my mother. I'm headed over there to see her right now. What does it take before we start using our heads besides something to part our ears with. My father says that and he did cross over but I keep his words alive. I'm just carrying on in the family tradition. I will cabbage onto any and all optimism I can find here.
Thank you, MikeP.
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SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception2 -
White House abandoned plan to send 650 million face masks across the U.S. in April, report says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/white-house-abandoned-plan-to-deliver-650-million-face-masks-across-us-report-says.html
Key Points:- The U.S. Postal Service had drafted a press release announcing plans to send 650 million masks across the U.S. early in the coronavirus crisis, but the plan was abandoned, The Washington Post first reported.
- In April, Postal Service leaders drafted an announcement saying the USPS would deliver five reusable face masks to every residence and post office box in the country.
- The White House ultimately canceled the program, senior administration officials told the Post.
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In my alt world utopia back in January when China first shut down and extended their new year the entire WORLD took it seriously and face covers were mandatory. Being in industry our logistics folks started sending daily updates For them to shut down gave me chills and every update I saw from suppliers made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.4
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kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.5 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.
Agreed to not let's do that 2 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
Don’t modern vaccines use adjuvants to enhance immune response ? Wouldn’t that be more protective than casual exposure?4 -
Hey folks - just a reminder for users who may be new to the thread or community, please review community guidelines (link below). One of those guidelines prohibits divisive topics in the main community (if you'd like to discuss something like politics here at MFP, please create or find a group).
https://www.myfitnesspal.com/community-guidelines
Stay healthy,
Em3 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.
Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.
And the latest models on Herd Immunity have said that (likely) 43% or less need to be infected and we might have herd immunity. I'm just pointing out the obvious. People aren't doing what they are supposed to be doing. The mask deniers and the college students are spreading it rapidly. The CDC talking about comorbidities was the last straw of control that was lost. These are just facts. I still pray, against all odds, that we'll have a vaccine, but I'm not counting on it. I think we'll reach herd immunity first, to be completely honest. But I don't think 2 million will die. At least I hope not. I think Fall, Winter and early Spring will have horrific numbers of dead and, like the Spanish Flu, will taper out late Spring and it will be mostly in our rear view mirror by Summer.
If you add in the fact that many might potentially have immunity from exposure with masks (and low viral loads building immunity) to the fact that many, many more could have had it than official numbers indicate, we could be at 20% to 25% now. That wouldn't entirely shock me. Antibodies don't last, so antibody tests might not show if someone has T Cells that will protect them, so the antibody testing as a litmus test for how much of the population has had isn't an accurate measure. Not at all.
Let me have my dark optimism. Because we're not all of a sudden going to all start listening, have 100% mask compliance and mature up 20 somethings. It's not happening. Even if we had consistency of messaging from the top, local authorities would not enforce a national mask mandate because of politics.
Here's a decent article on the Antibodies versus T Cells on fighting Covid-19.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122807223/coronavirus-us-research-suggests-bigger-role-for-t-cells-than-antibodies-in-fighting-off-covid19
As this article points out, as you age, your T Cells dwindle. That's why this is such an efficient killer of the elderly.
Here's a good article on the 43% versus 70% for herd immunity. A few scientists think it might be 20%.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/08/17/herd-immunity4 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.
Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.
And the latest models on Herd Immunity have said that (likely) 43% or less need to be infected and we might have herd immunity. I'm just pointing out the obvious. People aren't doing what they are supposed to be doing. The mask deniers and the college students are spreading it rapidly. The CDC talking about comorbidities was the last straw of control that was lost. These are just facts. I still pray, against all odds, that we'll have a vaccine, but I'm not counting on it. I think we'll reach herd immunity first, to be completely honest. But I don't think 2 million will die. At least I hope not. I think Fall, Winter and early Spring will have horrific numbers of dead and, like the Spanish Flu, will taper out late Spring and it will be mostly in our rear view mirror by Summer.
If you add in the fact that many might potentially have immunity from exposure with masks (and low viral loads building immunity) to the fact that many, many more could have had it than official numbers indicate, we could be at 20% to 25% now. That wouldn't entirely shock me. Antibodies don't last, so antibody tests might not show if someone has T Cells that will protect them, so the antibody testing as a litmus test for how much of the population has had isn't an accurate measure. Not at all.
Let me have my dark optimism. Because we're not all of a sudden going to all start listening, have 100% mask compliance and mature up 20 somethings. It's not happening. Even if we had consistency of messaging from the top, local authorities would not enforce a national mask mandate because of politics.
Here's a decent article on the Antibodies versus T Cells on fighting Covid-19.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122807223/coronavirus-us-research-suggests-bigger-role-for-t-cells-than-antibodies-in-fighting-off-covid19
As this article points out, as you age, your T Cells dwindle. That's why this is such an efficient killer of the elderly.
Here's a good article on the 43% versus 70% for herd immunity. A few scientists think it might be 20%.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/08/17/herd-immunity
All fair points. Personally, I don't see sufficient herd immunity happening until we have that artificial immunity from a vaccine. Even then, I don't see this ever going away, but rather just becoming less commonly spread. Unlike SARS, which was contained and killed, this is already too widespread to contain to elimination.6 -
@T1DCarnivoreRunner -- yeah, there were several early scenarios with the worst one being that this would be around forever, like the seasonal flu, with no true long term vaccine ever found. It's shaping up like that. When I say "herd immunity", I'm talking not loss of massive life -- 100's or 1000's a day. I think we're going to have to keep protections in place for the elderly for years. With their lack of T Cells, it's going to be hard. But with time, the virus has mutated to be more contagious but much less deadly. The strain that hit NYC on was much more deadly than the one that hit CA and the West Coast, though those were more contagious. I'm hoping it continues that way. SARS wasn't nearly as contagious.
Where the antibodies could come into play (if they never find a long term vaccine) is for added protection for the elderly. I could see that as a game plan. I'm not convinced they have any vaccine that has lasting effects.3 -
This is a great article on the overview of where we're at. It's a long one but a good one on the challenges and the stark reality that we may never find the "silver bullet" vaccine.
https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/the-state-of-the-fight-against-covid-191 -
Meanwhile, I see there is a confirmed human case of EEE (Eastern equine encephalitis) in Barry County, MI. This is in addition to 22 horses in 10 counties in the same area.
The fatality rate in humans is somewhere around 33% with many survivors having permanent disabilities. It's spread by mosquitoes, so hopefully in MI, it will be turning cold enough soon enough.9 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.
Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.
I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.
8 -
Just saw a set of "man-on-the-street" interviews about covid deaths in the U.S. on NBC News. Obviously, not a scientific survey, and you don't know how many people they asked to find the uninformed ones they broadcast, but people were saying they thought "thousands," "1900" and "tens of thousands" of people have died in the U.S. so far from covid (it's actually just shy of 200,000 as of today). How can we expect people to take it seriously if they don't know that it's on target to be one of the top three causes of death this year, behind heart disease and cancer?12
-
lynn_glenmont wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »No need for a vaccine or masks, the virus will go a way when " it reaches certain numbers and we get herd mentality." All is good, isn't it?
I said two or three weeks ago I think we'd hit Herd Immunity before we get a vaccine that works, unfortunately. But, here's the good news. Many of us might already have immunity and not know it. Because if this new information is true (and it makes logical sense), many of us mask wearers might already have immunity. We might have been exposed to enough small doses of the virus that the numbers of people that have been exposed now could be much higher than we thought.
The problem is...for true herd immunity, you'd need around 70 percent of the population to be immune, and I don't believe we are anywhere near that infection rate. Given what we assume to be the death rate, if we hit a 70 percent infection rate, it would conservatively cost several million lives in the U.S. alone.
Secondly, we have no idea how long immunity lasts after exposure to this virus. If you had symptoms, do you have better immunity than those that were asymptomatic? If you have antibodies to the virus, does that mean you are immune to future infection? No one knows. This is the problem with a novel virus. Exposure does not necessarily mean immunity.
Yes, assuming Johns Hopkins was correct in the below article saying a 70% immunity rate would be necessary to achieve herd immunity, 70% of 330 million is 231 million infected people. Assuming a conservative 1% mortality rate, that's 2.31 million dead.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
It's not that simple. We know there are some people who have actually gotten re-infected because the immunity lasts only about 3-4 months. So it's actually that 70% of us need to get infected within the same 3 month time frame. This idea that we will reach herd immunity naturally by 2021 or 2022 or something completely ignores that the antibodies don't seem to last. You think hospitals were over-run and not prepared in late Mar. (NYC in particular)? Just wait until 70% of the population is infected simultaneously. Let's not do that.
Don't misinterpret my comments. I've never said, "let's go for herd immunity". What I'm pointing out is that it's happening in front of our eyes because utter incompetence and mixed messaging. And the scientists have already said that, quite frankly, antibodies only matter for stop gap vaccine purposes. They are finding the T Cells have long term memories and now they believe if you've ever had a Coronavirus within the last decade or so, your T Cells will fight it and it shouldn't be that severe.
I'm feeling cranky I guess, but after reading things like this that you have posted several times, I have to say: This is not news. You keep saying this like it's some new discovery, but the "memory" function of T-cells with respect to previously encountered viruses has been known for a long time. The news with respect to covid, as I understand it, is that they have found T-cell responses to covid in significant percentages (20% to 50%) of subjects who are not believed to have previous exposure to covid, and even in stored blood from several years before the first known cases of covid, so either covid has been circulating in the human population for a lot longer than we've known, or previous exposure to some other coronaviruses makes it possible for the T-cell system to recognize covid and respond.
You're right. It's not news. It's not news to you. It's not news to me as I have studied immunology due to teaching an intensive Health class for the homeschool co-op which included a lot of human physiology. It should have been a college class. The teaching prep for that class consumed my life for a semester.
Most people are NOT taught this in public education. I wasn't. I didn't take Anatomy/Physiology in high school or college. My high school health class in my public school was a joke and talked most about drugs, alcohol, tobacco, and sex and not to do any of it. Most people haven't heard of T-cells either! I had heard of T-cells, but I never really knew how they work. I only know b/c I am such a neurotic nerd that I have to know EVERYTHING I'm going to teach in a class and must be able to answer any possible question I might be asked. So I take a deep dive. I'm a terribly curious person. So if I feel like I'm ignorant about something, then I do something about that. The sad fact is that it seems like 90% of people on the street have no idea how the body fights disease whatsoever. They either never knew, only got a smattering that wasn't in depth (me in school), or have forgotten it. And I couldn't possibly tell you the percentage of curious people accurately, but I tell you from experience, and I'm certain many would concur, that in general people are 99% uncurious most of the time these days and allow cognitive dissonance to silence that leftover 1%. All many read are the headlines. And they do not read the science. And even if the science is revised to be easier to understand, they still won't read it if that goes against their chosen belief system. Many don't trust experts and prefer what their chosen news source tells them. Some news sources don't even post/report science. And as I have posited above, if they did, it would go unread by some. The way this is right now, and being continually reminded that people are like this, makes me cranky so I completely understand cranky. 
I don't think reiterating it so that the people with unenlightened yet thirsty brains reading this can be exposed is unreasonable even if the repetition is annoying.15
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