Coronavirus prep

NovusDies wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

NovusDies wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

snowflake954 wrote: »

paperpudding wrote: »

Re Australia question Some people have second homes. They had to stay in one state if the borders were locked.
There were some exemption for essential travellers, but going to a holiday home was not one of them.

Same for us, here in Italy, you could not go to vacation homes. People would check and report you (everyone knows which homes are vacation). Police stopped cars on the road, and you had to have permission for where you were going--work, humanitarian (helping an elderly relative), etc. This was during Lockdown last spring. We are going into another Lockdown. The numbers keep climbing. My husband's cousins are all down with COVID. Luckily we haven't seen them for over 3 weeks.

Way back in Mar., I was advocating for this here in the U.S. Most disagreed, but it has gotten out of hand here. I still think we need a total and complete shutdown for 3-4 weeks where only essential employees (healthcare and designated support) are allowed to leave. Under my vision then (and now), nobody else leaves home. Food, supplies, and medicine delivery would be done by people in full PPE and contactless (i.e. set order down at door and leave before person opens door). But nobody wanted to do that. They would rather have months or years of limited contact rather than weeks of zero contact.

Who is the "no one" that did not want to do your extremely high level plan here? Did you tell someone with the authority to consider it? Or did you just tell a bunch of random people on the internet?

What ifs and cocktail napkin plans are just idle speculation.

The "no one" I'm talking about are others on this thread. Go back to Mar. / Apr.

Can you explain how this is a real thing to complain about? People with no authority to enact your plan disagreed with you about your plan. Why is that relevant? What did happen was going to happen no matter how many random people on the internet agreed with you. You get that, right?

Now if you are trying to invoke an "I told you so" you would have to develop your plan a lot further. You would have to discuss what level of compliance would be necessary to avoid repeating the lockdown, whether or not it would require martial law to achieve that level of compliance, the costs associated with it, how long it would take to muster or fabricate enough PPE for all the people who would need it, and all the collateral damage in lives and property it would cause. I am sure I am missing a few details but start there.

I can mention a solution to any problem but until the solution is a fully formed plan that is actually implementable and presented to the proper people then I am just saying idle things. It does not make me right if my fantasy solution is not implemented and a more real world outcome occurs.

It truly does suck that this is going the way it has. I expected it but that does not make it suck less. When forced to try and make quick decisions based on evolving data that affects so much I am not sure how often anything is handled in a way that will ever feel right. In about 10 years someone will analyze it (hindsight is grand) and tell us all the mistakes made that we currently think are right and tell us all the right things that happened that we currently think are wrong. I won't bother watching or reading it.

I already described the plan in great detail, including who would be allowed to leave home and under what circumstances as well as how the majority in lockdown would get supplies.

Yes, it is true that nobody here can do anything directly to enact such a plan. I never claimed they could, so I'm not sure what uou are trying to say. My point was that nobody (i.e. the general public) wanted to make a sacrifice that could actually solve this problem quicklyand effectively early on. Wearing a mask and social distancing is a much smaller sacrifice, yet many people won't even do that today. They expect the problem to solve itself.

I know it doesn't sound like a lot compared to most places battling this virus, but our little town seems to be getting more positive cases. Our local high school, where my dh works, now has 2 positive cases and other area schools have claimed 3 cases.
I know parents want and need things to get back to normal. I know kids need that social contact, the ability to play sports, to 'hang out'. I know people need to work and life needs to get back to normal. But the longer we tip toe around staying safe and keep pretending it isn't that bad, the longer it's going to take for normal to come back. We're going to keep bouncing back and forth between openings and closures until finally there is a reliable and safe vaccine that a majority of the people will agree to take. In the meantime people will lose their lives and continue to overwhelm the system.

My sister told me tonight there are 2 positive cases within the Home Health Agency that visits her and dh most every day, some days sending more than 1 person. In fact, she had 3 different ones today, 1 for personal care, a nurse, and an aide.
This is not good. They're already short staffed to begin with, plus they go into Very vulnerable people's homes.

My niece's little boy was in the hospital last night being tested. Not sure why she went to the hospital, though. Probably out of fear and habit. I know they are equipped to test, but the symptoms were a low grade fever and just lethargic and he's younger, like 6. I worry more about her, TBH, getting it or passing it to others.

It seems like PSA (Public Service Announcements) have been mostly non existent in many areas. Yes, you see educational stuff in stores, but information like what to do if you suspect you have it, aside from running to a test center, has been hit and miss in certain areas. Perhaps if we hadn't spent the last year arguing about masks or whether or not it was dangerous, we might have spent more time on public education geared toward prevention and stopping the public spread.

Athijade wrote: »

I am frustrated. I was sure our governor would step us back into tighter restrictions now that the election is over (he was up for reelection and won). Nope. Even with 3,756 new cases and 25 deaths reported yesterday. He is leaving things up to the counties/cities to make the call individually. He also thinks that asking people to remember to wear their masks will help. Well, it hasn't helped yet so not sure why he thinks suddenly these idiots would decide to do it.

Sorry. I am frustrated. I don't WANT a shut down and I 100% understand the economic toll that it would have at all levels. But the current path is not going to work and is only going to get people sick and killed. If we had done it right the first time, we would be in a stronger place now, but we didn't. Too many businesses were considered essential and the state wasn't willing to put any real power behind the "shut down". My city was lucky and smart and we have trended better then the rest of the state in general except at the very beginning (due to many people commuting into Indianapolis for work and the high numbers there) but we got it handled quickly. Indy itself did well because the mayor was willing to take the hate and set stricter rules as well.

I just want all of you to know I am thinking about you and I hope you stay safe. This has been a good place for me to be able to rant and to talk to like minded people. So thank you.

I live in TN and I 100% feel you but I'm not saying anything lately as my bluntness gets my posts deleted. We have about 40-50% guideline compliance. (That's me being generous, as it is often less in many spots.) Everyone else refuses and are often rude about it.

If our folks would just ALL wear masks, social distance, not gather in large groups, and not do inside dining/bars right now (until community spread goes back down to a manageable level), then we wouldn't need to lockdown like March again. But they won't and have proven that. My town just had a downtown Halloween event. Thousands of people lined up for 1.5 hours. I saw pics. Widespread lack of masks. There will be consequences. Some schools in the region have already had to move back to hybrid or complete virtual. Our hospital system in our corner is begging the community to step up. They've already gone into surge plans, nixed elective procedures, get crying nurses to speak during the briefings, wanting to hire 350 nurses as they have about 400 staff infected or in quarantine. And this is all with COVID plus regular stuff. We don't get flu bad here until Dec and January. We face being overrun and nurses will have to give less care to each patient causing other poor recovery and deaths. They are already spread so thin. The hospital system just gave them a 15% temp raise. If people will do what they KNOW they need to do...but they will not, and that is where we are here. The downplaying of the virus has convinced them that it's not a concern, and anyone who insists that it is, is suspect. This is what I have experienced personally from people in my own life.

I was encouraged yesterday that my inlaws respected us enough to put masks on and distance when they came to give my newly-18-year-old daughter her birthday gift, but we stipulated that as a must, otherwise they would not have. And they have not been at all careful. They do not care and do not care if they get it and spread it. But my elderly Dad does care, so I care, and I'm not going to be a part of contributing to the spread in my community. They clearly think we are crazy

We are all free to make choices, but we are not free from the consequences of those choices.
Unfortunately, many are unable to recognize them. Many don't understand that their continual refusal to comply comes around and hurts them even if they don't get the virus. The state of the economy can't improve, more people can't be rehired, events can't be held, and schools can't stay in-person until they step up. Nothing will get better until the virus gets under control. Period. The country is stuck in a slow-burn and will be until next summer or longer. How awful it is as a whole will depend on whether or not people who aren't helping start helping control the spread. But here, the Christmas parade is still on Dec 5th. If things continue as they are re:guideline compliance, then our region is heading for a hard-candy Christmas, so to speak.

MikePfirrman wrote: »

My niece's little boy was in the hospital last night being tested. Not sure why she went to the hospital, though. Probably out of fear and habit. I know they are equipped to test, but the symptoms were a low grade fever and just lethargic and he's younger, like 6. I worry more about her, TBH, getting it or passing it to others.

It seems like PSA (Public Service Announcements) have been mostly non existent in many areas. Yes, you see educational stuff in stores, but information like what to do if you suspect you have it, aside from running to a test center, has been hit and miss in certain areas. Perhaps if we hadn't spent the last year arguing about masks or whether or not it was dangerous, we might have spent more time on public education geared toward prevention and stopping the public spread.

You're not wrong.

For TN, they say "we are doing a PSA campaign!!!" They do one ad for one week on one station in my area and then quit. The hospital system runs one regularly. It is still ignored. Those who do not want to follow the guidelines are suspicious and do not believe that the virus is real or that it is a big deal at all. It becomes increasingly clear that they will not hear at this point, no matter what is said, until the virus hurts them or someone they love. How do I know? 8 months in and it is still the same. The Gov has said it, the Health Commissioner tells it like it is, the hospital system is telling us "PLEASE!", but many respond with opposition and disbelief. This is my experience with many people in my area of northeast TN/southwest VA. The local social media comments section is bombarded with responses along those lines on every COVID news story.

Unfortunately, it looks like our country has build this rollercoaster, and we are locked into the harness already. If something doesn't change drastically in many states soon, and at this point I don't see that happening, then we'll be taking all the frightening plunges and turns all the way through, and it will not be a fun ride.

I hope your niece's little fella is feeling much better very soon.And that the test is negative.

A couple of points:

It's allergy, flu, cold season. I know 2 people who assumed the person they were talking to had allergies or a cold and it turned out they were tested and positive for Covid19. We need to keep on our guard and alto we cannot think doom and gloom at the slightest symptom it would be more prudent to self isolate at that symptom vs risk others.

I also heard from a Dr friend that how severe the case may be could be directly related to the viral load you are exposed to. So, if you have a relative who gets sick don't assume "hey I am already exposed so no need for PPE" because if you continue to expose you could get a worse case.

Chiming in and some of my experiences are different from those mentioned above. Since March, I have lived in 3 states; began the shutdown in florida, and then spent from May - Oct in Mass and Maine. As for not enough essential businesses being shut down, in Florida and Mass, things were shut down tight IMO. The only category I found stupid were the "essential" liquor stores. But people have pointed out to me that alcoholics can die if forced to detox rapidly. I would not know as I have about 1 drink a month. In both Florida and Mass, there are businesses closed forever because they were not considered "essential". All those people are now unemployed. My sons company was literally cut in half - 1500 to 750 employees, and good luck getting a new job. My son has a friend who is literally phone-crying on his shoulder. She was in the process of divorcing her husband when she was laid off. She has no income, no savings, and now cannot leave her husband, and sees no end in sight and is trapped. As for compliance, the worst compliance I encountered was in the state with the most strict rules at the time, Maine. Residents were terrible. Compliance slowly improved later in the summer, but was a real joke preceding July 4th. They would blame any transmission on "out of state visitors" yet locals were not wear masks nor social distancing.

As for our president ignoring cities, the Boston Major makes all kinds of rules and mandates and if he does not, our governor steps in. We just got new rules going into effect tomorrow night. It is all a tricky balance. There is finger pointing everywhere - lower government levels pointing up, and federal level pointing down.

I will say that I honestly would not want to have the responsibility of dealing with the balance between shutting down to prevent viral spread, and the economic damage and destroyed lives that a shut down causes. I get to sit here and express my opinions with no repercussions for anyone.

@T1DCarnivoreRunner

Natural herd immunity (direct infection by the virus) is dangerous and not as effective as herd immunity via vaccination.

Natural herd immunity may only provide neutralizing antibodies for a short period of time, and there are studies that determined that the number of neutralizing antibodies are in proportion to the original viral load.

Somebody that was infected by the virus and was mostly asymptomatic or with very mild side effects, may not have generated a large number of antibodies and their T-cells may have “limited memory.” And probably their antibodies were not considered “neutralizing abs.”

On the other hand, people that were very sick with the infection (due to a high viral load in their system), may have longer lasting antibodies and their T cells may also have a lasting memory. However, the risk of having autoimmune antibodies (antibodies attacking the body not the virus) may be present and that is dangerous.

A vaccine will always deliver a steady and even dose of antigen, and many vaccines were formulated to get a booster shot few months after the first inoculation. Finding a robust neutralizing response and preferable a long lasting response is the goal of vaccination. That is why we have clinical trials. Trust science!

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/2020-08-21-herd-immunity-through-infection-vs-vaccination/

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

MikePfirrman wrote: »

SModa61 wrote: »

Chiming in and some of my experiences are different from those mentioned above. Since March, I have lived in 3 states; began the shutdown in florida, and then spent from May - Oct in Mass and Maine. As for not enough essential businesses being shut down, in Florida and Mass, things were shut down tight IMO. The only category I found stupid were the "essential" liquor stores. But people have pointed out to me that alcoholics can die if forced to detox rapidly. I would not know as I have about 1 drink a month. In both Florida and Mass, there are businesses closed forever because they were not considered "essential". All those people are now unemployed. My sons company was literally cut in half - 1500 to 750 employees, and good luck getting a new job. My son has a friend who is literally phone-crying on his shoulder. She was in the process of divorcing her husband when she was laid off. She has no income, no savings, and now cannot leave her husband, and sees no end in sight and is trapped. As for compliance, the worst compliance I encountered was in the state with the most strict rules at the time, Maine. Residents were terrible. Compliance slowly improved later in the summer, but was a real joke preceding July 4th. They would blame any transmission on "out of state visitors" yet locals were not wear masks nor social distancing.

As for our president ignoring cities, the Boston Major makes all kinds of rules and mandates and if he does not, our governor steps in. We just got new rules going into effect tomorrow night. It is all a tricky balance. There is finger pointing everywhere - lower government levels pointing up, and federal level pointing down.

I will say that I honestly would not want to have the responsibility of dealing with the balance between shutting down to prevent viral spread, and the economic damage and destroyed lives that a shut down causes. I get to sit here and express my opinions with no repercussions for anyone.

Maybe it's me getting more philosophical as I age or the Psych major in me, but as a consultant for businesses (from Fortune 100s to startups) for 25 years, I've seen the most successful businesses nearly always have common themes. A top down strategy that is communicated effectively from the top down to the lowest person in the organization, conformity/consistency of messaging and honesty/ethics. No matter what company I deal with, the ones that are the most successful and have the happiest employees seem to follow this pattern.

If you apply and contrast that to how our government has operated in this pandemic, it's pretty clear they failed miserably. And no matter who wins this election, the damage is already done and we are irreparably harmed.

I mentioned around 2 months ago that I thought we'd see a very dirty form of herd immunity before we saw vaccines. Not that I wanted to see that, but you could see the writing on the wall with people fighting mask mandates and common sense. I still think that's what we'll see. And I'm not sure, at this stage, uniformity of message will help. And that's sad.

You simply have to be as vigilant as you can be, even if that means sacrificing seeing family these upcoming Holidays and stay in the 30% to 50% that will stay safe until we have some form of herd immunity, vaccines, antibodies or treatments for everyone.

I disagree and don't expect that we will ever have herd immunity. It seems like the antibodies are lasting for only a few months and there have been a few cases of the same person getting infected twice. This also makes me wonder about the efficacy of a vaccine once it comes out. Assume everyone gets it (they won't) around the same time... you have a 3 month window where everyone has antibodies and nobody can spread it around. Theoretically, the virus could die out within that 3 month window. But that assumption is not realistic, so I'm not sure how that is supposed to work out.

But understand, what you're saying is that we'll all of a sudden all listen to reason, wear masks, comply with getting a universal vaccine and that the vaccine will work. Or perhaps you aren't. Either way, it's going to get really, really ugly before it's all said and done. And the election is done and it hasn't magically disappeared. I forget who said that

Some dirty form of Herd Immunity, at this stage, is the optimistic view. The pessimists view is this thing is seasonal, like the flu or the common cold, mutates to be more contagious, and is the most efficient killer of people with compromised immune systems we've ever seen.

I prefer the first scenario. Where people with sense protect themselves as well as possible and those that don't (along with, unfortunately, many who do), get it and then finally understand how dangerous this is. Refrigerated trucks as back up morgues are very compelling to change minds. It is coming to that very quickly right now. I don't mean to sound bleak, but we are going to see that very soon all over the states that don't believe in masks.