Coronavirus prep
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I've been keeping a very close eye on N Dakota and S Dakota. These states were about the closest thing to an experiment in attempted herd immunity that we have in the US. I suppose the good news is that deaths are starting to go down finally (or tapering off a bit), perhaps because they reached such a saturation point. It is quite astounding that both states, with as rural as both are, are approaching death per capita numbers of the packed populations of NY and NJ, even despite the fact that therapeutics have gotten better, the strain has gotten less deadly and NY and NJ got hit before they knew how to take precautions. It's mind boggling. With that said, N Dakota's numbers spiked again yesterday. Nearly 15% in the state have already had it (by testing). So they are likely approaching 30 to 40% now. There was a lot of debate on if there even could be a herd immunity and how high that number would need to get. Some scientists thought it only needed to be in the high 40s. Sad that these states are nearly there already.
If there's a positive spin, I suppose even if you do everything wrong, even intentionally, the numbers aren't as high as some early models predicted in terms of deaths. If you extrapolate the N Dakota and S Dakota numbers, the entire US won't see the worst numbers we've heard early on, but they will be bad. We will hit 300K deaths this weekend.5 -
@MikePfirrman
I agree. Both states were no mandatory mask edicts. SD ran out of hospital beds and had to send patients to other states. Leadership poor at state and National levels led to these consequences. Still denial.🤷🏻♀️
It isn’t a hard decision to make. That’s what medical advisors are for. To advise leadership. They need to listen to the experts.11 -
missysippy930 wrote: »@MikePfirrman
I agree. Both states were no mandatory mask edicts. SD ran out of hospital beds and had to send patients to other states. Leadership poor at state and National levels led to these consequences. Still denial.🤷🏻♀️
It isn’t a hard decision to make. That’s what medical advisors are for. To advise leadership. They need to listen to the experts.
Just heard on the news that the new models predict that 30K lives in the US will be saved by April with the vaccine roll out. Of course these numbers are fluid and will change up or down (we hope up). That's a great number but it will only represent, by that time, around 7% of the number already dead. Meaning, essentially, we got pretty darn close to basically herd immunity before the vaccine came out. We've followed the Spanish flu model so close it's not funny and after the second season, it nearly died out (same as will likely happen by late Spring/early Summer in current times).
I'm not minimizing 30K lives at all. That's fantastic. But yeah, if leadership hadn't said rely on the vaccine and not the mask early on, we'd be talking an entirely different narrative.12 -
Comes now a story from Johnson City, TN -- not too far from me -- about at least one severely ill patient who still did not believe in COVID-19. That's one step beyond "I didn't think leopards would eat my face." No, it's "I don't believe in leopards" whilst leopards eat your face. I can't grok it.
Not shocked. Went to school at ETSU and lived in Jonesborough for 14 years. I know some medical people at JCMC and other nearby hospitals. It's a mess there, people don't care.4 -
Comes now a story from Johnson City, TN -- not too far from me -- about at least one severely ill patient who still did not believe in COVID-19. That's one step beyond "I didn't think leopards would eat my face." No, it's "I don't believe in leopards" whilst leopards eat your face. I can't grok it.
That's knocking on my back door. I literally live a 20-25 min drive from the city proper just because I'm out in the county. My oldest daughter is enrolled in their university. Of course her classes have all been virtual.
Unfortunately, this statement comes as ZERO surprise to me. That attitude is rampant here.6 -
missysippy930 wrote: »While I am thrilled for australia that all is going well for that country and I sincerely hope that continues. But to those who feel that applying those same policies to the US would have been appropriate, I need to point out that the worldwide ramifications of shutting down Australia and the US are not comparable. The US is much more significant in the world economy and therefore shutting the US down impacts much more than itself. I do not, and never will, envy those that have to balance all the factors and make the decisions.
Even if the US does have a bigger impact on the world economy, (and I’m not totally convinced that it does) it doesn’t change the fact that basic preventative measures have never been endorsed at the highest level in the US. Australia isn’t the only country that has this simple measure in place, and it works.
The US isn’t shut down, nor does it need to be to control spread of covid. If EVERYONE followed the guidelines set by professionals that are well qualified and well informed about how covid is spread, and how to lessen the spread, there would be a different scenario right now. Would it be eradicated? Definitely not, but it would be more manageable, less people contracting it, and less people dying from it. Isn’t that preferable to what we have.
This American agrees with you 100%. Hubs and I were looking at our state's numbers. We as a state have almost 5 times the cases and deaths in one state as you all do in your entire country. And as the oft repeated refrain goes these days: "And it didn't have to be this way."
This year has been really good at exposing all our unsavory underlying conditions as a country. I do hope that enough of us will learn these lessons so that we can improve as a country and community.11 -
baconslave wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »While I am thrilled for australia that all is going well for that country and I sincerely hope that continues. But to those who feel that applying those same policies to the US would have been appropriate, I need to point out that the worldwide ramifications of shutting down Australia and the US are not comparable. The US is much more significant in the world economy and therefore shutting the US down impacts much more than itself. I do not, and never will, envy those that have to balance all the factors and make the decisions.
Even if the US does have a bigger impact on the world economy, (and I’m not totally convinced that it does) it doesn’t change the fact that basic preventative measures have never been endorsed at the highest level in the US. Australia isn’t the only country that has this simple measure in place, and it works.
The US isn’t shut down, nor does it need to be to control spread of covid. If EVERYONE followed the guidelines set by professionals that are well qualified and well informed about how covid is spread, and how to lessen the spread, there would be a different scenario right now. Would it be eradicated? Definitely not, but it would be more manageable, less people contracting it, and less people dying from it. Isn’t that preferable to what we have.
This American agrees with you 100%. Hubs and I were looking at our state's numbers. We as a state have almost 5 times the cases and deaths in one state as you all do in your entire country. And as the oft repeated refrain goes these days: "And it didn't have to be this way."
This year has been really good at exposing all our unsavory underlying conditions as a country. I do hope that enough of us will learn these lessons so that we can improve as a country and community.
I find myself frequently pondering Yeats: "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
I wouldn't say the best lack ALL conviction, but we've certainly got the passionate intensity covered.8 -
Friend is going to be one of the first non-test people to get vaccinated any day now. He's a pharmacist for a major chain and will be going out to vaccinate the medical community and nursing homes.13
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Comes now a story from Johnson City, TN -- not too far from me -- about at least one severely ill patient who still did not believe in COVID-19. That's one step beyond "I didn't think leopards would eat my face." No, it's "I don't believe in leopards" whilst leopards eat your face. I can't grok it.
Not shocked. Went to school at ETSU and lived in Jonesborough for 14 years. I know some medical people at JCMC and other nearby hospitals. It's a mess there, people don't care.
Fellow ETSU alumni here.
I don't think anyone believes me when I tell the stories of what I'm dealing with here. I get the feeling you know EXACTLY where I'm coming from.
Way too many REALLY don't care to an alarming degree. We are basically trapped at home with the exception of one person going to the grocery store, masked and armed with sanitizer. My inlaws are having a biggish Xmas shindig tomorrow. People who will attend are exactly the ones who shouldn't be.
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MikePfirrman wrote: »I've been keeping a very close eye on N Dakota and S Dakota. These states were about the closest thing to an experiment in attempted herd immunity that we have in the US. I suppose the good news is that deaths are starting to go down finally (or tapering off a bit), perhaps because they reached such a saturation point. It is quite astounding that both states, with as rural as both are, are approaching death per capita numbers of the packed populations of NY and NJ, even despite the fact that therapeutics have gotten better, the strain has gotten less deadly and NY and NJ got hit before they knew how to take precautions. It's mind boggling. With that said, N Dakota's numbers spiked again yesterday. Nearly 15% in the state have already had it (by testing). So they are likely approaching 30 to 40% now. There was a lot of debate on if there even could be a herd immunity and how high that number would need to get. Some scientists thought it only needed to be in the high 40s. Sad that these states are nearly there already.
If there's a positive spin, I suppose even if you do everything wrong, even intentionally, the numbers aren't as high as some early models predicted in terms of deaths. If you extrapolate the N Dakota and S Dakota numbers, the entire US won't see the worst numbers we've heard early on, but they will be bad. We will hit 300K deaths this weekend.
This is just crazy...2 -
My friend’s husband brought it home from work. Got tested a week ago, confirmed early in the week. Her and their 3 children didn’t bother going for a test knowing what the results would be (all had similar yet still unique progression of symptoms). She gets a call from the health dept today for contact tracing (a WEEK after he was tested! Several days after she was already symptomatic) and was told she has to quarantine until the 26th! Even though she has been sick for nearly a week, because she doesn’t have a test on record she has to quarantine from the time of his last day of quarantine which is the 12th!9
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SuzySunshine99 wrote: »Question for the Australia and New Zealand posters...
With few to no cases, how do you feel personally about getting the vaccine as soon as you can? Will you get it as soon as it’s available to you, or will you wait?
Yes absolutely I will
I have no serious allergies and no health conditions and relatively young so not in vulnerable group.
But everyone who can, getting vaccinated is how herd immunity is created.
and I work in health care so am a risk to others as well as responsible for setting a good example.
and I want to travel to UK as soon as possible.
(there are few to no cases of measles mumps rubella in Australia too - but we dont stop vaccinating for them - because we are connected to rest of world and because vaccination keeps the status quo of low disease rates - Same thing)
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Theoldguy1 wrote: »Friend is going to be one of the first non-test people to get vaccinated any day now. He's a pharmacist for a major chain and will be going out to vaccinate the medical community and nursing homes.
Awesome!! This is good to hear.1 -
paperpudding wrote: »SuzySunshine99 wrote: »Question for the Australia and New Zealand posters...
With few to no cases, how do you feel personally about getting the vaccine as soon as you can? Will you get it as soon as it’s available to you, or will you wait?
Yes absolutely I will
I have no serious allergies and no health conditions and relatively young so not in vulnerable group.
But everyone who can, getting vaccinated is how herd immunity is created.
and I work in health care so am a risk to others as well as responsible for setting a good example.
and I want to travel to UK as soon as possible.
(there are few to no cases of measles mumps rubella in Australia too - but we dont stop vaccinating for them - because we are connected to rest of world and because vaccination keeps the status quo of low disease rates - Same thing)
Exactly!! Where I live, every child has an immunization record card issued at birth, and these vaccines are given at intervals between 2 months and 11 years old. There's a list of mandatory ones to be certified for entry to school - measles, mumps, rubella as mentioned above, plus a few others. Everybody immunized, nobody gets sick.
The other factor for us is tourism. At the moment, all arriving passengers have to show a recent COVID19 test result at the airport, then they're quarantined for a few days pending a local re-test before being allowed out to enjoy their holiday. If all locals take the vaccine, then we no longer need to quarantine foreign arrivals, and it would be a much more pleasant experience for all concerned.4 -
Pfizer vaccine just approved in the US by the FDA.9
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missysippy930 wrote: »Pfizer vaccine just approved in the US by the FDA.
The FDA were supposed to "discuss" and evaluate the observations of the panel, and determine what was going to be included in the package insert. None of those things could be done in such short time. I hope that the FDA didn't approve the vaccine today due to the fear of losing their jobs and under pressure from the WH.6 -
is Pfizer the same vaccine as was approved and already running in UK?
why would it not be approved for US use?
I hope approving of vaccines in US isnt politicised the way Covid handling has been.
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paperpudding wrote: »is Pfizer the same vaccine as was approved and already running in UK?
why would it not be approved for US use?
I hope approving of vaccines in US isnt politicised the way Covid handling has been.
Same vaccine, differing approval regulations in different countries. Only a few countries have approved it to date. Some countries are taking a wait and see attitude, where the in place policies to limit the spread are working. Unfortunately, it’s dire circumstances in the US. It’s obvious in place recommendations are not being followed by many here, and the results are apparent by the staggering numbers. Guinea pigs, to a certain extent. Justifiable?🤷🏻♀️2 -
I'm a firm believer in using masks and social distancing, staying home more, etc. Due to more efforts such as what so many people are doing, shouldn't this make a difference in what we see as a normal flu year? Just curious.
But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing.
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I'm a firm believer in using masks and social distancing, staying home more, etc. Due to more efforts such as what so many people are doing, shouldn't this make a difference in what we see as a normal flu year? Just curious.
But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing.
That was the attitude of one of the politicians in the second worst hit state in the US (actually, both S Dakota and N Dakota) -- people will do what they should do on their own. N Dakota now has started a mandatory mask mandate, but S Dakota still refuses. Didn't work out so well for either of them and people don't do what they should without being forced or coerced.3 -
In Australia, where flu season is over now - yes it made a huge difference
Influenza numbers were way down compared to usual.9 -
Vaccinations will soon be an option for local hospital staff per rumors. There are no fully approved FDA vaccines yet but beta testers are needed. Sounds like Canada has come out with compensation plan if any beta tester is harmed. Hard times for hard decisions.
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paperpudding wrote: »is Pfizer the same vaccine as was approved and already running in UK?
Yes, and also received approval in Canada last week although shipment and vaccination have not started yet.3 -
So I had to go to a bigger grocery store today (Meijer) because I needed some stuff that my normal weekly stores do not carry (Aldi and Fresh Thyme). It was horrible. SO many employees and vendors not wearing masks, not wearing them correctly, or not social distancing... or a mix. I have already sent an email to corporate, but knowing that they just don't seem to care means I won't be going back. And I will be telling as many people as possible.15
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MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm a firm believer in using masks and social distancing, staying home more, etc. Due to more efforts such as what so many people are doing, shouldn't this make a difference in what we see as a normal flu year? Just curious.
But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing.
That was the attitude of one of the politicians in the second worst hit state in the US (actually, both S Dakota and N Dakota) -- people will do what they should do on their own. N Dakota now has started a mandatory mask mandate, but S Dakota still refuses. Didn't work out so well for either of them and people don't do what they should without being forced or coerced.
I wonder a bit whether political leadership's flag-wave-y refusal to implement mandates/recommendations earlier has increased incidence or duration of non-compliance in those places, even after the late-breaking mandates.
I live in a state that had relatively early mask mandates (Michigan), and strong pro-precautions rhetoric from the governor (the legislature is another story . . . .). This is 100% subjective, but I feel like compliance here has gradually improved over the months, including among some people I know who feel very oppositional to the governor, and who've spread absurd conspiracy stuff about the pandemic (and still seem to think it's a myth). It feels like the weight of public announcements, and many regular people's amplification of those announcements, has created a pressure toward the social norm that people wear masks in public.
If the opposite message is reinforced at first, top down, and also amplified, does that reduce compliance probability later, if officials reluctantly eventually implement mandates? Has the norm of opposing masks become more entrenched? (I'm not asking people here to answer these questions. I think they're unanswerable. But I think humans are very influenced by what they see as behavioral social norms.)11 -
"But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing."
Rennie, what? They are NOT doing what they should be doing. Everyone there is wearing masks, not going to parties and weddings etc... ? Sorry but that is not correct. If they were it wouldn't be spreading like it is. One of my USA friends told me this week a guy he works with is going to a wedding with around a hundred people there. That is crazy. The couple hosting it for one could have put it off till the vaccine is out and just had a very tiny wedding with maybe just their parents for now if they are in a rush. Apparently many don't care if half their guests end up in hospital or dead as long as they have a party. Selfish? Yes. I have no idea why it's allowed. It wouldn't be here if we had high numbers of people dying.11 -
"But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing."
Rennie, what? They are NOT doing what they should be doing. Everyone there is wearing masks, not going to parties and weddings etc... ? Sorry but that is not correct. If they were it wouldn't be spreading like it is. One of my USA friends told me this week a guy he works with is going to a wedding with around a hundred people there. That is crazy. The couple hosting it for one could have put it off till the vaccine is out and just had a very tiny wedding with maybe just their parents for now if they are in a rush. Apparently many don't care if half their guests end up in hospital or dead as long as they have a party. Selfish? Yes. I have no idea why it's allowed. It wouldn't be here if we had high numbers of people dying.
You could be right, I could be wrong, but that's not how I interpreted Reenie's question, in context, when she wrote:I'm a firm believer in using masks and social distancing, staying home more, etc. Due to more efforts such as what so many people are doing, shouldn't this make a difference in what we see as a normal flu year? Just curious.
But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing.
I read that (paraphrasing) as "Wouldn't the masks, social distancing and staying home reduce flu spread this year? But if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing, why is Covid so bad?"
IOW, I took that part you quoted out of context as a counterfactual, implying "but I guess people must not be doing enough of the right things, or Covid wouldn't be so bad".
Like I said, maybe I'm interpreting wrong.
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"But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing."
Rennie, what? They are NOT doing what they should be doing. Everyone there is wearing masks, not going to parties and weddings etc... ? Sorry but that is not correct. If they were it wouldn't be spreading like it is. One of my USA friends told me this week a guy he works with is going to a wedding with around a hundred people there. That is crazy. The couple hosting it for one could have put it off till the vaccine is out and just had a very tiny wedding with maybe just their parents for now if they are in a rush. Apparently many don't care if half their guests end up in hospital or dead as long as they have a party. Selfish? Yes. I have no idea why it's allowed. It wouldn't be here if we had high numbers of people dying.
You could be right, I could be wrong, but that's not how I interpreted Reenie's question, in context, when she wrote:I'm a firm believer in using masks and social distancing, staying home more, etc. Due to more efforts such as what so many people are doing, shouldn't this make a difference in what we see as a normal flu year? Just curious.
But then, why is Covid being such a dangerous thing if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing.
I read that (paraphrasing) as "Wouldn't the masks, social distancing and staying home reduce flu spread this year? But if people are doing what they're supposed to be doing, why is Covid so bad?"
IOW, I took that part you quoted out of context as a counterfactual, implying "but I guess people must not be doing enough of the right things, or Covid wouldn't be so bad".
Like I said, maybe I'm interpreting wrong.
No worries. I sometimes interpret things wrong so might be me. It's just how it read to me. Writing stuff doesn't always come across how we mean I know.5 -
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In states that have very high compliance with mask orders (i.e. California) there is still a huge increase in cases. It may be that people are complying when in public, but are having many more small gatherings in private that are spreading the virus. One study said that less than 2% of the transmissions could be traced to restaurants. A lot more were from family gatherings, and that was before Thanksgiving.
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