Coronavirus prep

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  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 2,869 Member
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    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    @kshama2001 and @cwolfman13 I respect both your replies pointing out how the surgeon general is part of an administration and is therefore not apolitical. But, the other part of the original comment, which I also addressed, was how the 15 days to slow the spread did not "come from Fauci". As I quoted above, at the same approximate point in time, Fauci was stating "several weeks". In the overcall experience we have had, the 15 days of the surgeon general vs the several weeks stated by Fauci were equally wrong.

    One of the big issues here is that we weren't even able to see what two weeks or several weeks of an actual lockdown would do. Everything was left to individual states. There were states who never shut anything down at all...others put in minimal restrictions...others shut down, but very quickly opened everything back up to almost normal. That's like having a special area of the swimming pool that it's ok to pee in. The only way anything like two weeks or several weeks would have worked is if everyone was on the same page and doing the same thing. This is pretty evident just by observing other countries that have effectively controlled the virus.

    Also, if you remember back to March and the two week plan or the CDC and Fauci saying it would be longer...part of all of that was slow, phased opening up...which should have also been an indication to people that restrictions would go on considerably longer. Honestly, if anyone legitimately thought it would be a couple of weeks or several weeks and then we'd just be back to pre COVID life, I would have to question if they were actually paying attention to what was happening in the world around them.

    There wasn't even a phased opening in many states...and even more states that were opening in phases, but not really following any kind of guideline as to what should or would be open in any given phase of re-opening.

    There is a reason that the USA leads the world in COVID positivity rates...there is a reason other countries have been able to control the virus...

    While all valid, my original post was simply in response to someone (don't recall who) stating that they never heard any two weeks statement, so I showed the surgeon general and the 15 days to slow the spread announced last March to show that there was something (not whether it was good or bad).

    Then people said, well that statement was not from a scientist like Fauci. So I showed Fauci said fairly similar around the same time. My posts all have roots in the single original comment about never hearing of a "two week" plan.
  • SModa61
    SModa61 Posts: 2,869 Member
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    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    @kshama2001 and @cwolfman13 I respect both your replies pointing out how the surgeon general is part of an administration and is therefore not apolitical. But, the other part of the original comment, which I also addressed, was how the 15 days to slow the spread did not "come from Fauci". As I quoted above, at the same approximate point in time, Fauci was stating "several weeks". In the overcall experience we have had, the 15 days of the surgeon general vs the several weeks stated by Fauci were equally wrong.

    One of the big issues here is that we weren't even able to see what two weeks or several weeks of an actual lockdown would do. Everything was left to individual states. There were states who never shut anything down at all...others put in minimal restrictions...others shut down, but very quickly opened everything back up to almost normal. That's like having a special area of the swimming pool that it's ok to pee in. The only way anything like two weeks or several weeks would have worked is if everyone was on the same page and doing the same thing. This is pretty evident just by observing other countries that have effectively controlled the virus.

    Also, if you remember back to March and the two week plan or the CDC and Fauci saying it would be longer...part of all of that was slow, phased opening up...which should have also been an indication to people that restrictions would go on considerably longer. Honestly, if anyone legitimately thought it would be a couple of weeks or several weeks and then we'd just be back to pre COVID life, I would have to question if they were actually paying attention to what was happening in the world around them.

    There wasn't even a phased opening in many states...and even more states that were opening in phases, but not really following any kind of guideline as to what should or would be open in any given phase of re-opening.

    There is a reason that the USA leads the world in COVID positivity rates...there is a reason other countries have been able to control the virus...

    While all valid, my original post was simply in response to someone (don't recall who) stating that they never heard any two weeks statement, so I showed the surgeon general and the 15 days to slow the spread announced last March to show that there was something (not whether it was good or bad).

    Then people said, well that statement was not from a scientist like Fauci. So I showed Fauci said fairly similar around the same time. My posts all have roots in the single original comment about never hearing of a "two week" plan.

    I think there was a couple of us...I was one. It wasn't so much that I had never heard a two weeks statement, it was more to the point that even with that two weeks, there was a much longer phased opening plan...so I guess I never heard 2 weeks and then we're done and back to normal pre-COVID. Most of what I heard on national news from the beginning was that we would be in a long period of restrictions...easing of restrictions...tightening of restrictions again, etc until a vaccine was not only available, but widely distributed. My assumption from the beginning was that we'd be living this well into 2021...maybe that's why I'm not as frustrated with things as some and I don't think it's a big conspiracy as many think...I've mentally been in this as a long haul kind of thing since March.

    Reflecting back on things I thought about last spring. I was preparing for fast and devastating over a short term. I recall buying foods that did not need electricity to store or to prepare. I was buying gallons of water. Enough to last a few weeks. I was instructing my adult kids to to the same. I was not thinking this was going to be a long-haul.
  • corinasue1143
    corinasue1143 Posts: 7,467 Member
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    SModa61 wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    kimny72 wrote: »
    I don't understand why the vaccine rollout is so terrible. Sounds like some places have extra doses while other places don't have enough. I feel like the phased approach is holding things back in places with extra doses. Those places where they have enough vaccine, but can't give it to anyone because they haven't been told to go on to the next phase yet. Someone needs to take inventory and just get these shots to people. Maybe deploy the national guards and train them to give injections. 100K soildiers working 12 hrs per day would have these vaccines done much sooner. Only question is supply to do that.

    Just my opinion but I think the problem is this needed to be organized from the top down and it wasn't. And I'd bet some states assumed it would be and we're caught unprepared when it wasn't.

    The doctor who gives updates on This Week in Virology works at one of the larger NYC hospitals (I forget which one). He said they were notified back in Nov that they were on the list to get a certain amount of vials for staff vaccinations. So they put a plan together and waited to get more info on timing. And waited. And then 1200 doses of vaccine just showed up on their loading dock one Tues morning in Jan. They had to scramble to look at staff schedules and dept occupancy to come up with a schedule right there on the spot. Luckily they were well organized and they banged out the jabs, but a less well prepared organization might not have been ready.

    I agree,they need to get creative getting in trained personnel to administer the shots and less picky about who their giving them to.

    (This is not a disagreement, rather more just quoting you to continue this subtopic.)

    I agree that some level of central coordination is missing, but I also think that fully-centralized planning might not be ideal, for two general reasons. (BTW, I recognize that I'm oversimplifying, as I go on with this thought.)

    One is that some localities have handled the distribution so far pretty well (within the constraints of supply and such), while others have not. Where would a fully-centralized plan fall on the effectiveness scale? I feel like many people saying "we ought to have a strong central plan" are assuming it would be a *good* plan. Well, maybe. It's challenging to make a good plan, quickly, for a novel situation; and the larger the scale, the harder it gets, IMO.

    The other is that I think more localized governmental entities have a better handle on local constraints and conditions. What will work well for spread-out rural populations with limited big hospitals is probably different than what works in a dense major city with similarly scaled big health-care facilities, for example.

    Now, in reality, it's possible to have central coordination to some degree, with local flexibility within that framework. There's no question in my mind that the federal piece of this, in the US, has been handled poorly.

    The novelty of the situation is very relevant. We don't have some planning luxuries we might in a less urgent scenario.

    I think one of the strengths of the US's multi-tier governmental systems, as a generality, is this: When different approaches to solving problems are tried in different localities, we have an opportunity to review the results, and learn from the best models, over time. In the current situation, the novelty of the needs, and the urgency of getting solutions, isn't really benefiting from that idea of trying multiple approaches in different places and comparing results.

    No one has a moment's time to do a lot of consulting with peers in different localities, as might be the norm in less urgent situations. (That sort of consultation is one of the things that professional associations, etc., are useful for, in many situations. In my professional life, if we needed to do new-thing X, we'd be talking with other similar organizations to see who'd done X, and learning from their experience. This train is just rolling faster than that, at the moment; and no one's done this before. We haven't had time for "pilot projects".) I assume more of that review/consultation/adjustment will happen, over time, since this crisis/process will be going on for a while.

    There's a tendency amongst the public, I think, to expect things to work well right out of the gate (they pretty much never do, IME, but the stakes aren't usually this high, or the results this visible). In other situations new processes sometimes look to the general public like they work well at the start, because trials/pilots were not very well publicized, but were helpful in working out kinks before going full-scale. (In a way, this is similar to the way some people saw the learning process by scientists early on, with findings and results changing the experts' minds, as flip-flopping or wishy-washiness.)

    There's also a tendency to believe that a strong central authority (like a national pandemic czar) and strict authority structures with rigid rules are going to be the best way to get things done. I think that's mostly not true, either.

    I keep reminding myself that all (well, most) of the health systems, governmental entities, etc., are just collections of regular people like me, doing the best they can in these difficult circumstances, and that in most cases they're aware of factors and considerations that I as a non-specialist have no expertise about. It's always pretty easy to second-guess how someone else should be doing a job I'd have no idea how to do myself, if I were challenged to try. 😆

    I agree with this post. I used to think government coordination would have stopped this thing, and it might have had a plan been ready for this type of disaster. I remember as a kid in school being told what we would do if there were an atomic attack (this in rural Minnesota). We also had fire drills. There used to be the idea of prevention and a plan--preparedness. The federal government would have had to have centers, and stockpiles, and dry runs at every level to make it work.

    Once COVID hit it was too late. In Italy we're under central government control and COVID is still here and going strong. The regions do not like the government mandates and either issue stricter controls or want more opening. This is a much smaller country than the US.

    As Ann said, we can just do our best as citizens, and it's just not easy to understand what it takes to get everything moving.

    I remember this too, suburban Minneapolis, elementary school. We crouched down in the halls covering our heads with our arms during drills 😳 They also talked about loading us into boxcars to get us away from the city. Wouldn’t fly today. No school psychologists then. This was during the Cuban missile crisis.

    There’s definitely no easy solution to covid. It would be nice if everyone took this seriously, and did the basics that slow down the spread. One young girl interviewed the other day about holiday partying, traveling, and socializing, said she has to live her life, and have fun🤷🏻‍♀️

    I remember practicing going under our desks, like that was really going to make a difference. This was likely early 1970's given the classroom I am picturing in my mind? Am I hallucinating? I have no idea what we would have been hiding from.

    I grew up in Tornado Land. We practiced getting under our desks until the threat of nuclear bombs. Then they cleaned out the basement well enough for all of us to squeeze in. It was storage and the janitors’ things. They took each class, one class at a time, downstairs and said if they took us down there, we’d have to stand close for all of us to fit in. They never had a practice or said anything about it ever again.
    My dad was on the school board, and he said it was because all the practice was scaring some of the kids and their parents.
    Maybe something similar happened in your case. Maybe your middle school had a basement and your grade school didn’t?
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,902 Member
    edited January 2021
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    SModa61 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    @kshama2001 and @cwolfman13 I respect both your replies pointing out how the surgeon general is part of an administration and is therefore not apolitical. But, the other part of the original comment, which I also addressed, was how the 15 days to slow the spread did not "come from Fauci". As I quoted above, at the same approximate point in time, Fauci was stating "several weeks". In the overcall experience we have had, the 15 days of the surgeon general vs the several weeks stated by Fauci were equally wrong.

    One of the big issues here is that we weren't even able to see what two weeks or several weeks of an actual lockdown would do. Everything was left to individual states. There were states who never shut anything down at all...others put in minimal restrictions...others shut down, but very quickly opened everything back up to almost normal. That's like having a special area of the swimming pool that it's ok to pee in. The only way anything like two weeks or several weeks would have worked is if everyone was on the same page and doing the same thing. This is pretty evident just by observing other countries that have effectively controlled the virus.

    Also, if you remember back to March and the two week plan or the CDC and Fauci saying it would be longer...part of all of that was slow, phased opening up...which should have also been an indication to people that restrictions would go on considerably longer. Honestly, if anyone legitimately thought it would be a couple of weeks or several weeks and then we'd just be back to pre COVID life, I would have to question if they were actually paying attention to what was happening in the world around them.

    There wasn't even a phased opening in many states...and even more states that were opening in phases, but not really following any kind of guideline as to what should or would be open in any given phase of re-opening.

    There is a reason that the USA leads the world in COVID positivity rates...there is a reason other countries have been able to control the virus...

    While all valid, my original post was simply in response to someone (don't recall who) stating that they never heard any two weeks statement, so I showed the surgeon general and the 15 days to slow the spread announced last March to show that there was something (not whether it was good or bad).

    Then people said, well that statement was not from a scientist like Fauci. So I showed Fauci said fairly similar around the same time. My posts all have roots in the single original comment about never hearing of a "two week" plan.

    I think there was a couple of us...I was one. It wasn't so much that I had never heard a two weeks statement, it was more to the point that even with that two weeks, there was a much longer phased opening plan...so I guess I never heard 2 weeks and then we're done and back to normal pre-COVID. Most of what I heard on national news from the beginning was that we would be in a long period of restrictions...easing of restrictions...tightening of restrictions again, etc until a vaccine was not only available, but widely distributed. My assumption from the beginning was that we'd be living this well into 2021...maybe that's why I'm not as frustrated with things as some and I don't think it's a big conspiracy as many think...I've mentally been in this as a long haul kind of thing since March.

    Reflecting back on things I thought about last spring. I was preparing for fast and devastating over a short term. I recall buying foods that did not need electricity to store or to prepare. I was buying gallons of water. Enough to last a few weeks. I was instructing my adult kids to to the same. I was not thinking this was going to be a long-haul.

    I was preparing for two weeks last spring because that's what the quarantine period was. Here's a post from March 3, 2020 Me:
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    As far as preparing, I'm am stocking up on food sufficient for a couple weeks. Just enough in case there were a requirement to self-quarantine at home for a period of time. Not hording anything, but putting a couple extra packs of chicken and fish and frozen vegetables in the freezer, as well as the typical staples eggs, rice, bread, that keep well. There hasn't been any confirmed cases in my area yet, but I don't want to be behind the curve in case people get stupid once a few are reported.

    I just listened to Radio Boston with guest Dr. Leonard Marcus, founding Co-Director of the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, a collaborative effort of HSPH and the Kennedy School of Government, developed in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the White House, and the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense.

    At the end of the show when asked to pass along one key message, he said, "The key message is: Get prepared to be quarantined... what would you do? Have the procedures, have the food, go through the drill with your friends and family.

    Host: And that means food and medications, right?

    Lenny: All of your essentials. ...imagine that you will be out of the loop for two weeks and prepare yourself for that eventuality.
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,902 Member
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    ReenieHJ wrote: »
    I was expecting to wait awhile before I was even eligible for the vaccine, feeling kind of okay with that because I would rather see how side effects play out. But I received a note in the mail today, because I help care for my BIL I'm eligible for the vaccine now and need to call our local hospital by the 20th to set up an appt.
    The 1st shot doesn't scare me but the 2nd one does, only because I've heard people get worse reactions with that one.
    I'm 67, pretty healthy as far as it all goes, had Covid(Blessedly mild) back around Thanksgiving but just not knowing how it'll affect me leaves me apprehensive.
    Any encouraging words to offer?
    Thank you!!

    The last time I had a flu shot was 30 years ago and I had a really bad reaction, but last fall when medical experts I trusted were recommending the flu shot I did get it.

    I imagine the bad reactions you are hearing about are anecdotes rather than statistics?

    @kimny72 - any thoughts on this?
  • cwolfman13
    cwolfman13 Posts: 41,874 Member
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    kshama2001 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    cwolfman13 wrote: »
    SModa61 wrote: »
    @kshama2001 and @cwolfman13 I respect both your replies pointing out how the surgeon general is part of an administration and is therefore not apolitical. But, the other part of the original comment, which I also addressed, was how the 15 days to slow the spread did not "come from Fauci". As I quoted above, at the same approximate point in time, Fauci was stating "several weeks". In the overcall experience we have had, the 15 days of the surgeon general vs the several weeks stated by Fauci were equally wrong.

    One of the big issues here is that we weren't even able to see what two weeks or several weeks of an actual lockdown would do. Everything was left to individual states. There were states who never shut anything down at all...others put in minimal restrictions...others shut down, but very quickly opened everything back up to almost normal. That's like having a special area of the swimming pool that it's ok to pee in. The only way anything like two weeks or several weeks would have worked is if everyone was on the same page and doing the same thing. This is pretty evident just by observing other countries that have effectively controlled the virus.

    Also, if you remember back to March and the two week plan or the CDC and Fauci saying it would be longer...part of all of that was slow, phased opening up...which should have also been an indication to people that restrictions would go on considerably longer. Honestly, if anyone legitimately thought it would be a couple of weeks or several weeks and then we'd just be back to pre COVID life, I would have to question if they were actually paying attention to what was happening in the world around them.

    There wasn't even a phased opening in many states...and even more states that were opening in phases, but not really following any kind of guideline as to what should or would be open in any given phase of re-opening.

    There is a reason that the USA leads the world in COVID positivity rates...there is a reason other countries have been able to control the virus...

    While all valid, my original post was simply in response to someone (don't recall who) stating that they never heard any two weeks statement, so I showed the surgeon general and the 15 days to slow the spread announced last March to show that there was something (not whether it was good or bad).

    Then people said, well that statement was not from a scientist like Fauci. So I showed Fauci said fairly similar around the same time. My posts all have roots in the single original comment about never hearing of a "two week" plan.

    I think there was a couple of us...I was one. It wasn't so much that I had never heard a two weeks statement, it was more to the point that even with that two weeks, there was a much longer phased opening plan...so I guess I never heard 2 weeks and then we're done and back to normal pre-COVID. Most of what I heard on national news from the beginning was that we would be in a long period of restrictions...easing of restrictions...tightening of restrictions again, etc until a vaccine was not only available, but widely distributed. My assumption from the beginning was that we'd be living this well into 2021...maybe that's why I'm not as frustrated with things as some and I don't think it's a big conspiracy as many think...I've mentally been in this as a long haul kind of thing since March.

    Reflecting back on things I thought about last spring. I was preparing for fast and devastating over a short term. I recall buying foods that did not need electricity to store or to prepare. I was buying gallons of water. Enough to last a few weeks. I was instructing my adult kids to to the same. I was not thinking this was going to be a long-haul.

    I was preparing for two weeks last spring because that's what the quarantine period was. Here's a post from March 3, 2020 Me:
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    bpetrosky wrote: »
    As far as preparing, I'm am stocking up on food sufficient for a couple weeks. Just enough in case there were a requirement to self-quarantine at home for a period of time. Not hording anything, but putting a couple extra packs of chicken and fish and frozen vegetables in the freezer, as well as the typical staples eggs, rice, bread, that keep well. There hasn't been any confirmed cases in my area yet, but I don't want to be behind the curve in case people get stupid once a few are reported.

    I just listened to Radio Boston with guest Dr. Leonard Marcus, founding Co-Director of the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, a collaborative effort of HSPH and the Kennedy School of Government, developed in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the White House, and the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense.

    At the end of the show when asked to pass along one key message, he said, "The key message is: Get prepared to be quarantined... what would you do? Have the procedures, have the food, go through the drill with your friends and family.

    Host: And that means food and medications, right?

    Lenny: All of your essentials. ...imagine that you will be out of the loop for two weeks and prepare yourself for that eventuality.

    But that was for being sick with the virus right? I think of "quarantine" as being sick and being locked down in your home. We still have our stash of shelf stable essentials in the event we have to quarantine for two weeks, as well as our plan...which is basically if one of us get sick, that person is quarantined to the master bedroom in that it has a bathroom and a door to a patio for fresh air, and food can be left at the door. If all of us are sick, it doesn't much matter...
  • kimny72
    kimny72 Posts: 16,013 Member
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    ReenieHJ wrote: »
    I was expecting to wait awhile before I was even eligible for the vaccine, feeling kind of okay with that because I would rather see how side effects play out. But I received a note in the mail today, because I help care for my BIL I'm eligible for the vaccine now and need to call our local hospital by the 20th to set up an appt.
    The 1st shot doesn't scare me but the 2nd one does, only because I've heard people get worse reactions with that one.
    I'm 67, pretty healthy as far as it all goes, had Covid(Blessedly mild) back around Thanksgiving but just not knowing how it'll affect me leaves me apprehensive.
    Any encouraging words to offer?
    Thank you!!

    Reenie, have you gotten the shingles vaccine? I have to say, after listening to conversations about vaccines for the last month or two, I am looking forward to the covid vaccines and kind of scared of the shingles one! :lol:
  • Theoldguy1
    Theoldguy1 Posts: 2,454 Member
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    kimny72 wrote: »
    ReenieHJ wrote: »
    I was expecting to wait awhile before I was even eligible for the vaccine, feeling kind of okay with that because I would rather see how side effects play out. But I received a note in the mail today, because I help care for my BIL I'm eligible for the vaccine now and need to call our local hospital by the 20th to set up an appt.
    The 1st shot doesn't scare me but the 2nd one does, only because I've heard people get worse reactions with that one.
    I'm 67, pretty healthy as far as it all goes, had Covid(Blessedly mild) back around Thanksgiving but just not knowing how it'll affect me leaves me apprehensive.
    Any encouraging words to offer?
    Thank you!!

    Reenie, have you gotten the shingles vaccine? I have to say, after listening to conversations about vaccines for the last month or two, I am looking forward to the covid vaccines and kind of scared of the shingles one! :lol:

    Sore arm a couple times and $400 out the door NBD.