Coronavirus prep
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The seasonal cold is the result of the action of several viruses (rhinoviruses), and the seasonal flu is caused by an ever-mutating virus. Hard to find a vaccine that covers all the angles successfully.cwolfman13 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
I am in no way an advocate for carelessly re-opening...I don't know about other states, but NM has a plan for phased re-opening...it's not like the flood gates will just be opened. It is already mandatory for employees of any business that is currently operating whether curbside or in store to wear masks and to keep the 6' social distance, and those things will go well into the multiple phases of re-open. I'm pretty sure social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing aren't going anywhere.
In regards to flattening the curve and there being a rebound once things start to open up...well, that is inevitable. A lot more people are going to get sick and a lot more people are going to die over the coming months and likely years. You can't quarantine the virus into oblivion. The virus is with us...it will be with us...it's not just going to vanish off the face of the earth. You can't shutter economies into perpetuity in some vain attempt to quarantine the virus away.
In New Mexico we are substantially increasing testing and contact tracing as part of a federal pilot program. If you want to be tested, you can get tested regardless of whether you've had known contact with coronavirus or have symptoms. That will go a long way in quickly isolating outbreaks and I think going forward, the state is going to need to address hot spots in isolation rather than painting the entire state with broad brushed restrictions.
I just wish more people understood this. It seems like a lot of people think this is something that will be a memory in a couple of months, and if we just flip the switch and get back to "real life" everything will be fine. Hopefully enough people do understand!
Yeah, I really don't get the logic. Viruses don't just vanish into thin air. It will likely take a couple of years just to develop some semblance of herd immunity to this thing. I am also not particularly confident in there ever being a vaccine. To my knowledge, we don't have any vaccines for other coronaviruses, so I guess I would be surprised if they come up with one for this. If coronaviruses were that easy to tackle, why wouldn't we have a vaccination for the common cold by now?
I am hopeful that this virus will act like many other viruses and recede to an extent in the summer, but I would also anticipate a resurgence in the fall...hopefully somewhat of a "summer break" will give the health care system ample time to ramp things up. I personally think we're somewhat fortunate in the US that this hit in late winter, going into spring...if this would have hit last September or October when regular cold and flu season picks up, I think things would be even worse.
The virus responsible for COVID-19 does not seem to be mutating too fast or at all. Researchers feel that this finding could help in the development of a vaccine. However, other researchers feel that a vaccine may never came to fruition due to the pathology of this particular corona virus.
This virus makes the cells in the lungs sick; it does not kill them. It produces an overactive immune response in the body that helps to develop a cytokine storm. It seems that this immune reaction is what is killing the patients. Besides, it seems to affect younger patients, including children, in a complete different way than older folks.
Any vaccine effective for the control of the infection has to be one that does not supper activate the immune system. This is also the reason why there are so many labs working on a vaccine; they are trying to tackle the virus from different ways. They need to make sure that when they test the vaccine, it will not be worse that the virus itself (safety), and that it provides long term immunity, specially for the older population. Just because scientist are familiar with the corona virus, doesn’t mean that they know how to stop it or control it.
If you would like more scientific information, check these links.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/no-vaccine-for-coronavirus-a-possibility/news-story/34e678ae205b50ea983cc64ab2943608
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-vaccine/art-20484859
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-04-06/why-will-it-take-so-long-for-a-covid-19-vaccine
Common Cold Causes: Coronavirus, RSV, Rhinovirus & More
https://www.webmd.com/Cold-and-flu/Cold-guide/Common_cold_causes
Just from today Senate meeting
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Fauci emphasizes the need for more than one vaccine to be available.
Scientists hope to know by late fall or early winter whether they have at least one possible effective vaccine, Dr. Fauci told the senators. But he cautioned, “Even at the top speed we’re going, we don’t see a vaccine playing in the ability of individuals to get back to school this term.”
Dr. Fauci emphasized the importance of having “multiple winners,” meaning more than one vaccine available, to provide “global availability.” He repeated his cautious optimism that an effective vaccine would be developed but said there was no guarantee that would happen.
“You can have everything you think that’s in place, and you don’t induce the kind of immune response that turns out to be protective, and durably protective,” he said. “So, one, the big unknown is it will be effective.” Another concern is “disease enhancement,” the possibility that a vaccine could induce an immune response that would make the illness worse.
“We want to make sure that doesn’t happen,” Dr. Fauci said, adding that he was hopeful there would be a vaccine candidate with some degree of efficacy that would induce the kind of herd immunity that would protect the population as a whole. He said developing a vaccine in the next year to two years was “definitely not a long shot,” adding, “it is more likely than not that we will.”9 -
Call your shop or hairdresser. A rather large number of them are still secretly open.corinasue1143 wrote: »i need a haircut and my shop is still closed. Do I go elsewhere? Where? Or wait?
You are seriously suggesting people do this ???
If any shops are secretly and illegally operating I sure wouldn't be supporting or condoning that.
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Why do people assume flattening the curve is a one-time thing? It only makes sense that an unchecked spread can and will climb steeply. Failure to maintain social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing are a gift to the virus. I would expect it to be worse now b/c so many more people have it--not enough for any potential immunity, but more than enough to create a disaster for all those who get ill in the period of reopening done so carelessly.
Flattening the curve is needed to keep the rate of new infections lower than the rate of recoveries. Less new infections give more time for medical personnel to devote care to those already sick and prevent deaths.2 -
corinasue1143 wrote: »Just curious. Why were barber shops among the first to open here, among the last in other states? Did our governor need a haircut and your governor has a private barber?
Just curious. Why do people need barbershops? I cut my own hair for 5 years, and my wife continued for the next 32 years after that. She never stopped during the lockdown.2 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »This news article has an interesting graphic to show Covid-19 daily deaths compared to other leading causes of death.
https://www.ketv.com/article/coronavirus-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-united-states/32380058?fbclid=IwAR0e55H7_PtwjICSDBgP8kIkVB0FmHF8AtAOTnxLNIi6DX761rHWe2KNJK4#
Very interesting!! So the numbers only sound high, while being very much in line with the other top leading causes of death. This will soon be so ordinary it won't even be news.
Hope you all heard the sarcasm in my voice.
Yes, but while it hovers day-to-day as one of the top few causes of death now, it may be successful in reaching #1 and staying #1 if people keep ignoring reasonable precautions like face coverings, social distancing, and frequent hand washing.
Yes. Just my point. We can reach the point where everybody becomes careless and complacent because they figure if you don't die from this, you're just as likely to die from something else anyway.1 -
https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.7
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runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
Ha! Interesting and enlightening. Apparently I didn't know at least a couple of factors that could affect R and how they might change things!3 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
I am forwarding this to every old person I know - most of them have been making noises like they are sick of lockdown and it’s never going to be any different anyway so they might as well just risk it now. This is the only thing I’ve seen that easily and clearly explains what it looks like when things get better.5 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
This is long, but explains everything so well---THANK YOU!!! It really gives hope at a time it's needed. Anyone who is depressed about the situation now should take a look.4 -
runningforthetrain wrote: »https://ncase.me/covid-19/ This site gives most outcomes given many of the confounding variables i.e compliance with distancing, shelter orders, and mask wearing. See you all in 2021.
This is great. Everyone should see this. Thank you.5 -
I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.9
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missysippy930 wrote: »I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.
I can understand it perfectly. Doesn't mean I like it, but I do understand it. There are several reasons:
- People think it will never happen to them. That's a known human trait. It even has a name (optimism bias).
- Being under stress can cause people to compartmentalize in an attempt to go back to their normal and familiar life. Another usually useful, but sometimes harmful, human trait. A way of coping with hardship is to convince yourself it's not serious or that's it's even good, or to busy your brain with other priorities. Coping is an important skill, but it can backfire (like in Stockholm syndrome).
- Humans are much better at prioritizing immediate concerns over possible future concerns. If someone's immediate pressing concern is their financial stability, they'll move potential infection down the priorities list and rationalize why their immediate concern is of bigger importance.
- Reclaiming control over your life. When people lose control over their lives they tend to want to reclaim it, even if it manifests in stupid ways like licking packages or refusing to take protective measures because "you can't tell me what to do".
- Conspiracy theories. The virus is new and the knowledge about it is new and incomplete. People need to know to feel in control. They may fall for conspiracy theories. Some people believe that this whole thing is a lie, for example. I've heard people say that world leaders have decided to orchestrate a grand act, each for certain gains. Some believe the virus does exist, but its consequences are overblown and used for political gain. When you firmly believe your loved ones are not at risk, you don't really believe your actions put their lives at risk.
I'm sure there are many other reasons, but it mainly boils down to the fact that the human brain has evolved to cope at all costs. It's a good thing that can backfire because it's not built on rationality.15 -
missysippy930 wrote: »I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.
I totally understand your point here, and agree that economies can be rebuilt. But the economy is not just about money and greed - it is also about an individual's ability to provide for their family. Without that ability to ensure families have the things they need, some will die not because of COVID19 directly, but because of the economic fallout from it. I don't think it's necessarily reckless or selfish behavior - it may also be a need to take care of loved ones that some are unable to do in the current lock-down situation.10 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.
I can understand it perfectly. Doesn't mean I like it, but I do understand it. There are several reasons:
- People think it will never happen to them. That's a known human trait. It even has a name (optimism bias).
- Being under stress can cause people to compartmentalize in an attempt to go back to their normal and familiar life. Another usually useful, but sometimes harmful, human trait. A way of coping with hardship is to convince yourself it's not serious or that's it's even good, or to busy your brain with other priorities. Coping is an important skill, but it can backfire (like in Stockholm syndrome).
- Humans are much better at prioritizing immediate concerns over possible future concerns. If someone's immediate pressing concern is their financial stability, they'll move potential infection down the priorities list and rationalize why their immediate concern is of bigger importance.
- Reclaiming control over your life. When people lose control over their lives they tend to want to reclaim it, even if it manifests in stupid ways like licking packages or refusing to take protective measures because "you can't tell me what to do".
- Conspiracy theories. The virus is new and the knowledge about it is new and incomplete. People need to know to feel in control. They may fall for conspiracy theories. Some people believe that this whole thing is a lie, for example. I've heard people say that world leaders have decided to orchestrate a grand act, each for certain gains. Some believe the virus does exist, but its consequences are overblown and used for political gain. When you firmly believe your loved ones are not at risk, you don't really believe your actions put their lives at risk.
I'm sure there are many other reasons, but it mainly boils down to the fact that the human brain has evolved to cope at all costs. It's a good thing that can backfire because it's not built on rationality.
Maybe. For some. I guess I haven’t lived my life that way. Something wrong with my wiring.
But I still think (hope) there’s more people that aren’t that selfish. No one is an island, nor is immune. Good or bad, leadership definitely has an influence in this.5 -
corinasue1143 wrote: »Just curious. Why were barber shops among the first to open here, among the last in other states? Did our governor need a haircut and your governor has a private barber?
Just curious. Why do people need barbershops? I cut my own hair for 5 years, and my wife continued for the next 32 years after that. She never stopped during the lockdown.
Perhaps because they don't have and don't want to develop that skill set or just don't want to do it? I mean do you change the oil in you vehicles, do your own taxes, lawn care, home repairs, etc.? I'm pretty sure there is some service you are paying for that others not specifically trained to perform that function are doing just like you are cutting your own hair.7 -
JustSomeEm wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »I understand that the world economy is seriously at risk. What I can’t understand is people that are willing to risk their lives, loved ones lives, friends lives, and random strangers lives, because of reckless/selfish behavior. Please explain the justification. Economies can, and will be rebuilt.
I totally understand your point here, and agree that economies can be rebuilt. But the economy is not just about money and greed - it is also about an individual's ability to provide for their family. Without that ability to ensure families have the things they need, some will die not because of COVID19 directly, but because of the economic fallout from it. I don't think it's necessarily reckless or selfish behavior - it may also be a need to take care of loved ones that some are unable to do in the current lock-down situation.
That part of it I understand, but not the partying. The news has reports daily of people going to beaches. Not obeying social distancing. Other activities as well that don’t provide taking care of loved ones.
There’s places that had flattened, and downward curves, reopening (Wuhan, South Korea and Germany for example). Now uptick in cases.
I’m just one person that thinks this needs to be taken more seriously and people really need to take heed of professional advice and the people on the frontline caring for the people with this.10 -
Theoldguy1 wrote: »corinasue1143 wrote: »Just curious. Why were barber shops among the first to open here, among the last in other states? Did our governor need a haircut and your governor has a private barber?
Just curious. Why do people need barbershops? I cut my own hair for 5 years, and my wife continued for the next 32 years after that. She never stopped during the lockdown.
Perhaps because they don't have and don't want to develop that skill set or just don't want to do it? I mean do you change the oil in you vehicles, do your own taxes, lawn care, home repairs, etc.? I'm pretty sure there is some service you are paying for that others not specifically trained to perform that function are doing just like you are cutting your own hair.
While I do get your point, I have done or have lived with people who have done everything on the list.
We did have someone come for the yearly sump pump service yesterday. However, we were easily able to maintain social distancing for that. My neighbors have been getting lawn service. Again, easily socially distant.
I'm anemic, just finished a month of bleeding, and could really benefit from an iron transfusion. However, I have decided going to the hospital at this time is not worth the risk. It's safer for me to rebuild my iron stores more slowly.
I just don't understand people clamoring for haircuts at this time - this puts you in close contact with someone not trained to use PPE who has been in close contact with many others not trained to use PPE, any of whom could be carrying the virus unknowingly.9 -
kshama2001 wrote: »
I just don't understand people clamoring for haircuts at this time - this puts you in close contact with someone not trained to use PPE who has been in close contact with many others not trained to use PPE, any of whom could be carrying the virus unknowingly.
I can get leaving the house for some non-essential stuff that is still potentially impacting health or quality of life (my husband got some dental work done yesterday, for example). I don't get doing that for a *haircut* and I'm someone who is really needing one right now.7 -
I'm in AZ and just saw a projection yesterday (I think mainly because we're on a rapid upward trajectory and have so many older people) that we will have an increase in deaths of 5000%. I think we're at 500 deaths now and they are predicting well over 5000 more.
Yet masks aren't required and restaurants opened over the weekend. People were standing in line at haircutting places, nail salons and spas. Most all didn't have masks.
I'm at the point now where if people want to die, you can't help them. I feel sorry that they have minimized the risk, ignored the science and now can't wait to "be free". I just don't think what will happen to them is as fun as they anticipate.
We will continue to shelter in place for the most part, eat at home (and I'm fortunate enough to have a career where I don't step out of the house).
The only ones I feel sorry for is the first responders and family members of those that continue to put everyone at risk for their "civil liberties".15 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm in AZ and just saw a projection yesterday (I think mainly because we're on a rapid upward trajectory and have so many older people) that we will have an increase in deaths of 5000%. I think we're at 500 deaths now and they are predicting well over 5000 more.
Yet masks aren't required and restaurants opened over the weekend. People were standing in line at haircutting places, nail salons and spas. Most all didn't have masks.
I'm at the point now where if people want to die, you can't help them. I feel sorry that they have minimized the risk, ignored the science and now can't wait to "be free". I just don't think what will happen to them is as fun as they anticipate.
We will continue to shelter in place for the most part, eat at home (and I'm fortunate enough to have a career where I don't step out of the house).
The only ones I feel sorry for is the first responders and family members of those that continue to put everyone at risk for their "civil liberties".
The thing that frustrates me about this is that *we all* have to live with these people who don't care if they live or die (or act as if they don't). I can be doing everything I can, but I still have to leave the house for groceries sometimes and when I do I'm encountering these people who are not taking any precautions. Nothing is going to protect me from that. That's what is frustrating. If these people could live in their own bubble, I wouldn't be as frustrated. They don't. We have to live alongside them.
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