Coronavirus prep

Theoldguy1 · July 2020

And for the love of all that is good, how can people say they didn't see the 2 ft black arrow on the floor drive to the store?

AnnPT77 · July 2020

jm_1234 wrote: »

(snip)
But more importantly, the bean situation in my area has been terrible since this started. I saw an interesting Patriot Act episode on our supply chain being too efficient which makes it unable to handle these types of shocks.

Just my opinion, but: I think it may be more productive to think of those supply chains as "insufficiently resilient", which - when evaluating their effectiveness over a span of time, especially - is an example of not being efficient enough under real-world conditions.

If we learn from all this, we have an opportunity to improve, building in resilience while maintaining at least some of the reduced inventory and other features of the system that's proven flawed.

IMO, improvement happens in cycles. JIT manufacturing was an improvement. We can improve the improvement; backtracking is not necessarily the only solution. (And I know the PP didn't say or imply that it was - I'm just riffing off the post, not completely disagreeing with it.)

AnnPT77 · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

It does seem to me that some of what had the experts confused and sending mixed messages, certainly at first but to some extent even now, was that research on factors like those I mentioned were just beginning to be to be published for this specific virus.

I'd also observe that there's some sign that countries with high mask adherence had better virus control, generally (possibly not absolutely). That's a correlational thing, so weak evidence . . . but wearing a mask is pretty easy & cheap, so seems worth doing even if there's some mere correlational findings as the justification. (I understand that some people with health issues can have problems wearing masks. I'm talking in general terms about the population.)

From my amateur history of closely reading other health research (breast cancer), it seems to me that preventatives/treatments with generally no negative side-effects will be accepted as part of standard practice/recommendations based on moderately weak evidence; and things that are more likely to cause harm are subjected to higher standards for proof of effectiveness before becoming standard practice. Outside of the health-related minority end-cases, mask wearing is pretty harmless.

** Not because I think it's indisputable, but because I'm not an expert, and I don't feel like researching/disputing today.

T1DCarnivoreRunner · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

I'm not sure it's the same as influenza. We know Coronavirus is spread by droplets leaving our mouth and nose, so it is logical that a mask that limits droplets will work. Is it 100%? Nope. Nobody ever said it is... but any effectiveness is worthwhile.

In fact, unless if a mask was proven to be 0% effective (not against influenza), they should be required. Even a 1% decrease in spread means more than a thousand lives saved here in the U.S. alone... so far. If you believe your personal convenience is more important than more than 1,000 lives; then just stay home.

ExistingFish · July 2020

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

I'm not sure it's the same as influenza. We know Coronavirus is spread by droplets leaving our mouth and nose, so it is logical that a mask that limits droplets will work. Is it 100%? Nope. Nobody ever said it is... but any effectiveness is worthwhile.

In fact, unless if a mask was proven to be 0% effective (not against influenza), they should be required. Even a 1% decrease in spread means more than a thousand lives saved here in the U.S. alone... so far. If you believe your personal convenience is more important than more than 1,000 lives; then just stay home.

Can you point me in the direction of the current death rate? Google seems to be failing me. I came up with 0.04%, this is all deaths - not taking into account comorbidities and stuff. I'm sure an expert could get me a better number. I'm not sure a 1% or 5% effectiveness rate would be worth mandates or enforcement. Would you take a vaccine with a 1% effectiveness rate?

People die in car crashes every year, should we make more restrictive mandates (10mph speed limits) and spend money on enforcement? It would save significantly more people from death or injury.

Don't get me wrong, I wear a mask where required. My state hasn't made a mandate and I'm glad they haven't. They've done contact tracing, people aren't picking up COVID from the gym or the restaurants. The new cases haven't gotten them there. They are getting them from their household, or from large gatherings I'm guessing where social distancing isn't enforced - like protests and other large gatherings.

cmriverside · July 2020

people aren't picking up COVID from the gym or the restaurants.

Maybe because of the masks, social distancing and closures people are not getting the virus in gyms and restaurants.

You just shot down your own argument.

ExistingFish · July 2020

AnnPT77 wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

It does seem to me that some of what had the experts confused and sending mixed messages, certainly at first but to some extent even now, was that research on factors like those I mentioned were just beginning to be to be published for this specific virus.

I'd also observe that there's some sign that countries with high mask adherence had better virus control, generally (possibly not absolutely). That's a correlational thing, so weak evidence . . . but wearing a mask is pretty easy & cheap, so seems worth doing even if there's some mere correlational findings as the justification. (I understand that some people with health issues can have problems wearing masks. I'm talking in general terms about the population.)

From my amateur history of closely reading other health research (breast cancer), it seems to me that preventatives/treatments with generally no negative side-effects will be accepted as part of standard practice/recommendations based on moderately weak evidence; and things that are more likely to cause harm are subjected to higher standards for proof of effectiveness before becoming standard practice. Outside of the health-related minority end-cases, mask wearing is pretty harmless.

** Not because I think it's indisputable, but because I'm not an expert, and I don't feel like researching/disputing today.

I made it clear it was influenza research, we don't have 70 years of covid research to look at, now do we?

I'm fine with it being a "standard practice/recommendation" that is not the same as a mandate with enforcement.

Mandates, and all this mask-wearing hype (when the science is iffy, at best), it causes discrimination against those who don't. Prejudice. Sanctimonious behavior. Racial discrimination (yes, it has happened). When everyone is hyping it up like if you don't do it, you are gonna kill your grandma - well the science just isn't there.

I'm tired of seeing leaders standing up saying "WEAR YOUR MASKS" and then when they think the camera cuts off, they take it off - if they don't believe it, why are they preaching it? or reporters on the beach saying "No one is wearing masks! The horror!" and a passerby points out their camera guy isn't wearing a mask. It's just becoming a way to point fingers and shame people.

ExistingFish · July 2020

AnnPT77 wrote: »

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

I didn't link it because it was symptomatically similar, I did because it was a respiratory spread virus - not a bacteria (a previous thing posted was a guy looking at bacteria coming past a mask/not ) - I thought a meta-analysis of influenza spread that was on actual people getting actually ill was far closer to what you'd see with another respiratory virus.

I think masks help some, we've had some people sick, like a hairdresser, who saw customers and didn't spread it to them because they wore masks. That kind of one-on-one close contact? Yeah, I think masks will minimize that. Dentists? Yep.

Me walking down a 10ft wide aisle in a grocery store and passing you for 5 seconds without a mask? Not likely at all. I might not even exhale when I'm walking past you. I don't think masks do crap in this kind of situation. They're just a display.

lemurcat2 · July 2020

Interview with an epidemiologist about the mask topic: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

rheddmobile · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

I didn't link it because it was symptomatically similar, I did because it was a respiratory spread virus - not a bacteria (a previous thing posted was a guy looking at bacteria coming past a mask/not ) - I thought a meta-analysis of influenza spread that was on actual people getting actually ill was far closer to what you'd see with another respiratory virus.

I think masks help some, we've had some people sick, like a hairdresser, who saw customers and didn't spread it to them because they wore masks. That kind of one-on-one close contact? Yeah, I think masks will minimize that. Dentists? Yep.

Me walking down a 10ft wide aisle in a grocery store and passing you for 5 seconds without a mask? Not likely at all. I might not even exhale when I'm walking past you. I don't think masks do crap in this kind of situation. They're just a display.

Yeah, the thing is, as someone with lupus who sometimes takes immune-suppressing drugs, I’ve been aware of airborne disease transmission since well before Covid, and I can tell you, people (not you, but all those other people) do exhale when you walk past them. Humans are nasty, nasty things, and 99.9% of the time every single nasty, disease-bearing one of them will cough loudly, mouth wide open, jaw slack, lungs rattling with phlegm, right as I pass. I have had a runner pass me on a trail and sneeze and spatter me right in the flipping EYE. At Walgreens during flu season I feel like I’m playing an old school video game trying to avoid death, since it’s apparently not possible for anyone in this city to keep their germs to themselves.

Masks do the job for all those disgusting excuses for humans whose mommas never taught them to cover their mouths.

AnnPT77 · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

I didn't link it because it was symptomatically similar, I did because it was a respiratory spread virus - not a bacteria (a previous thing posted was a guy looking at bacteria coming past a mask/not ) - I thought a meta-analysis of influenza spread that was on actual people getting actually ill was far closer to what you'd see with another respiratory virus.

More similar? Sure. Same? Dunno.

I think masks help some, we've had some people sick, like a hairdresser, who saw customers and didn't spread it to them because they wore masks. That kind of one-on-one close contact? Yeah, I think masks will minimize that. Dentists? Yep.

Me walking down a 10ft wide aisle in a grocery store and passing you for 5 seconds without a mask? Not likely at all. I might not even exhale when I'm walking past you. I don't think masks do crap in this kind of situation. They're just a display.

So, at the store: If I stop in the aisle to look at something, and someone else stops nearby, does it help then? If I interact with a store employee for a short conversation? If I sneeze? If I see my friend Suzie, and we talk for a few minutes across that aisle?

I just don't see the downside. I don't like mandates, either. I particularly dislike them without exceptions for people who have breathing or other health limitations, even recognizing that there's no way to guarantee people won't lie about that.

If nothing else, the presymptomatic/asymptomatic contagion is worse with Covid than flu. That makes masks more useful, as a practical matter.

We had a chance to go with voluntary compliance. We flippin' s*cked at it. Mandates are next, and they're not going to be conditional on things like how long, on average, it takes to pass someone in a supermarket.

And read the link lemur posted. We're not just looking at "mask mandate" vs. "no mask mandate". As a practical, epidemiological matter, incidence of mass usage affects ability to resume relatively more economic activity. That's a pretty big deal.

Edit: fix quote tags I broke.

AnnPT77 · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

It does seem to me that some of what had the experts confused and sending mixed messages, certainly at first but to some extent even now, was that research on factors like those I mentioned were just beginning to be to be published for this specific virus.

I'd also observe that there's some sign that countries with high mask adherence had better virus control, generally (possibly not absolutely). That's a correlational thing, so weak evidence . . . but wearing a mask is pretty easy & cheap, so seems worth doing even if there's some mere correlational findings as the justification. (I understand that some people with health issues can have problems wearing masks. I'm talking in general terms about the population.)

From my amateur history of closely reading other health research (breast cancer), it seems to me that preventatives/treatments with generally no negative side-effects will be accepted as part of standard practice/recommendations based on moderately weak evidence; and things that are more likely to cause harm are subjected to higher standards for proof of effectiveness before becoming standard practice. Outside of the health-related minority end-cases, mask wearing is pretty harmless.

** Not because I think it's indisputable, but because I'm not an expert, and I don't feel like researching/disputing today.

I made it clear it was influenza research, we don't have 70 years of covid research to look at, now do we?

I'm fine with it being a "standard practice/recommendation" that is not the same as a mandate with enforcement.

Mandates, and all this mask-wearing hype (when the science is iffy, at best), it causes discrimination against those who don't. Prejudice. Sanctimonious behavior. Racial discrimination (yes, it has happened). When everyone is hyping it up like if you don't do it, you are gonna kill your grandma - well the science just isn't there.

I'm tired of seeing leaders standing up saying "WEAR YOUR MASKS" and then when they think the camera cuts off, they take it off - if they don't believe it, why are they preaching it? or reporters on the beach saying "No one is wearing masks! The horror!" and a passerby points out their camera guy isn't wearing a mask. It's just becoming a way to point fingers and shame people.

Just a terminology clarification: "Standard practice" in cancer treatment (i.e., standard of care) is not the same as a loosey-goosey voluntary guideline. It's essentially binding on practitioners (i.e., simplistically, it's malpractice to do otherwise, and at extremes there can be legal sanctions). (Patients can opt out, of course. And mask objectors can - frankly - stay home.)

We disagree about the state of the science. I share your concern about discrimination. Shaming is one way desirable social change happens: I'm not always against it. Hypocrites are not a counter-argument.

Though I rarely act out over it, I'm routinely prejudiced against aggressively rude people (in many contexts, not just this one), and - absent medical reasons for it - that's what non-mask-wearers are doing at this point, being aggressively rude. (No, being rude isn't illegal . . . up to a certain point, anyway.)

ExistingFish · July 2020

lemurcat2 wrote: »

Interview with an epidemiologist about the mask topic: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

It's nice. It's a single epidemiologist though, not a study. I read the study linked. It supported the use of masks, as do I. It did not support the use of mandates, which I don't either.

It also said 80% adherence would be enough, so I again, don't think mandates are the answer. I'm fine with suggestion and recommendation. I support that. That is what my state is doing. I wear a mask where required, but I don't think poorly of those who don't. I don't think they are engaging in risky behavior.

The fear and prejudiced feelings about these things are why people are coughing on babies.

T1DCarnivoreRunner · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

I'm not sure it's the same as influenza. We know Coronavirus is spread by droplets leaving our mouth and nose, so it is logical that a mask that limits droplets will work. Is it 100%? Nope. Nobody ever said it is... but any effectiveness is worthwhile.

In fact, unless if a mask was proven to be 0% effective (not against influenza), they should be required. Even a 1% decrease in spread means more than a thousand lives saved here in the U.S. alone... so far. If you believe your personal convenience is more important than more than 1,000 lives; then just stay home.

Can you point me in the direction of the current death rate? Google seems to be failing me. I came up with 0.04%, this is all deaths - not taking into account comorbidities and stuff. I'm sure an expert could get me a better number. I'm not sure a 1% or 5% effectiveness rate would be worth mandates or enforcement. Would you take a vaccine with a 1% effectiveness rate?

People die in car crashes every year, should we make more restrictive mandates (10mph speed limits) and spend money on enforcement? It would save significantly more people from death or injury.

Don't get me wrong, I wear a mask where required. My state hasn't made a mandate and I'm glad they haven't. They've done contact tracing, people aren't picking up COVID from the gym or the restaurants. The new cases haven't gotten them there. They are getting them from their household, or from large gatherings I'm guessing where social distancing isn't enforced - like protests and other large gatherings.

Are you seriously arguing it is ok for people to die for your convenience?! Seems selfish to me.

ExistingFish · July 2020

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

I'm not sure it's the same as influenza. We know Coronavirus is spread by droplets leaving our mouth and nose, so it is logical that a mask that limits droplets will work. Is it 100%? Nope. Nobody ever said it is... but any effectiveness is worthwhile.

In fact, unless if a mask was proven to be 0% effective (not against influenza), they should be required. Even a 1% decrease in spread means more than a thousand lives saved here in the U.S. alone... so far. If you believe your personal convenience is more important than more than 1,000 lives; then just stay home.

Can you point me in the direction of the current death rate? Google seems to be failing me. I came up with 0.04%, this is all deaths - not taking into account comorbidities and stuff. I'm sure an expert could get me a better number. I'm not sure a 1% or 5% effectiveness rate would be worth mandates or enforcement. Would you take a vaccine with a 1% effectiveness rate?

People die in car crashes every year, should we make more restrictive mandates (10mph speed limits) and spend money on enforcement? It would save significantly more people from death or injury.

Don't get me wrong, I wear a mask where required. My state hasn't made a mandate and I'm glad they haven't. They've done contact tracing, people aren't picking up COVID from the gym or the restaurants. The new cases haven't gotten them there. They are getting them from their household, or from large gatherings I'm guessing where social distancing isn't enforced - like protests and other large gatherings.

Are you seriously arguing it is ok for people to die for your convenience?! Seems selfish to me.

Fear and feelings aside, we make those kinds of arguments every day. Do you know how many people die or are injured in car crashes? Do you know what decisions they have to make when they set speed limits? They know changing the limit by 5 or 10 mph saves or risks lives. They have to make that kind of decision because people have to go to places.

I don't think it's okay for people to die for my convenience, I never said that and I don't think anything I said should make you arrive at that conclusion. I'm just trying to get you to consider that these kinds of choices are made every day. Should I never get in a car and drive because there is a risk I could hit someone? No, I follow the rules and have insurance, but I take that risk to drive - as does everyone else on the road.

If I thought it was okay for people to die for my convenience, I wouldn't stop at stop signs - that's inconvenient! Who cares if I hit someone. But I do stop, because I do care.

I care about the possibility of spreading covid. I step back and allow people to walk through doorways so we aren't in it together, I stand on the 6' markings when standing in line. I don't shake hands. I use hand sanitizer when entering and leaving stores. I am okay with wearing a mask, but I don't think it is really doing anything when I wear it. I have barely been within 6' of someone for more than 15 seconds (you know, in passing). I don't think that casual contact is enough to spread covid, and from what I've heard, it isn't.

cmriverside · July 2020

The fear and prejudiced feelings about these things are why people are coughing on babies

Oh, c'mon.

Personality disorders are why people are coughing on babies.

I decided early on that it is none of my business what other people do so I'm not about to point out to a stranger that they need to step back six feet. Instead, I take a large shopping cart and try to keep it between me and the person behind me. There is only so much I can do against sociopathic behavior so since I'm old I try very hard not to put myself in situations that will cause conflict. So far in the past four months no one has gotten mad at me.

kimny72 · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

lemurcat2 wrote: »

Interview with an epidemiologist about the mask topic: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

It's nice. It's a single epidemiologist though, not a study. I read the study linked. It supported the use of masks, as do I. It did not support the use of mandates, which I don't either.

It also said 80% adherence would be enough, so I again, don't think mandates are the answer. I'm fine with suggestion and recommendation. I support that. That is what my state is doing. I wear a mask where required, but I don't think poorly of those who don't. I don't think they are engaging in risky behavior.

The fear and prejudiced feelings about these things are why people are coughing on babies.

If requirements to wear a mask make a person cough on a baby during a pandemic, there was something wrong with that person long before covid.

Based on what I've seen, many places in the US won't reach 80% compliance without a mandate.

With all the crazy *kitten* people believe without a shred of evidence, I'm fascinated by the amount of people who are now insisting on years of peer reviewed studies about masks. I actually saw someone on FB complain there's not enough science to support wearing a mask, then posted a meme about how they'll kill you by causing you to breathe back in too much CO2.

I've seen enough introductory science and anecdotal evidence to do something that is barely an inconvenience with the hope that it's helping. And I'm legit confused why with all the crazy rules and regulations and power grabs we sleepwalk through everyday, masks in a pandemic is where people would draw the line. <shrug>

ExistingFish · July 2020

cmriverside wrote: »

The fear and prejudiced feelings about these things are why people are coughing on babies

Oh, c'mon.

Personality disorders are why people are coughing on babies.

I decided early on that it is none of my business what other people do so I'm not about to point out to a stranger that they need to step back six feet. Instead, I take a large shopping cart and try to keep it between me and the person behind me. There is only so much I can do against sociopathic behavior so since I'm old I try very hard not to put myself in situations that will cause conflict. So far in the past four months no one has gotten mad at me.

Apparently, she worked in the local school district. No one has gotten mad at me, I just see what I consider irrational behavior online.

I'm just watching our state's daily covid update. They did a survey - which I understand isn't scientific or anything - but 82% of respondents say they are wearing masks when they go out. They even broke it down by age. 16% said No, and 2% weren't sure. That's over the 80% that would be needed to slow down covid.

We don't have a mandate. By suggestion and recommendation, we have 84%. No enforcement measures.

T1DCarnivoreRunner · July 2020

ExistingFish wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

This article is about influenza, but influenza is very much like covid in the fact that it is a contagious respiratory disease.

Thoughts?

I'm really interested to hear the opinions on those who want to mandate face masks:

Face Mask

In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25) (Figure 2). One study evaluated the use of masks among pilgrims from Australia during the Hajj pilgrimage and reported no major difference in the risk for laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection in the control or mask group (33). Two studies in university settings assessed the effectiveness of face masks for primary protection by monitoring the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among student hall residents for 5 months (9,10). The overall reduction in ILI or laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the face mask group was not significant in either studies (9,10). Study designs in the 7 household studies were slightly different: 1 study provided face masks and P2 respirators for household contacts only (34), another study evaluated face mask use as a source control for infected persons only (35), and the remaining studies provided masks for the infected persons as well as their close contacts (11–13,15,17). None of the household studies reported a significant reduction in secondary laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the face mask group (11–13,15,17,34,35). Most studies were underpowered because of limited sample size, and some studies also reported suboptimal adherence in the face mask group.

Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

I'm not sure it's the same as influenza. We know Coronavirus is spread by droplets leaving our mouth and nose, so it is logical that a mask that limits droplets will work. Is it 100%? Nope. Nobody ever said it is... but any effectiveness is worthwhile.

In fact, unless if a mask was proven to be 0% effective (not against influenza), they should be required. Even a 1% decrease in spread means more than a thousand lives saved here in the U.S. alone... so far. If you believe your personal convenience is more important than more than 1,000 lives; then just stay home.

Can you point me in the direction of the current death rate? Google seems to be failing me. I came up with 0.04%, this is all deaths - not taking into account comorbidities and stuff. I'm sure an expert could get me a better number. I'm not sure a 1% or 5% effectiveness rate would be worth mandates or enforcement. Would you take a vaccine with a 1% effectiveness rate?

People die in car crashes every year, should we make more restrictive mandates (10mph speed limits) and spend money on enforcement? It would save significantly more people from death or injury.

Don't get me wrong, I wear a mask where required. My state hasn't made a mandate and I'm glad they haven't. They've done contact tracing, people aren't picking up COVID from the gym or the restaurants. The new cases haven't gotten them there. They are getting them from their household, or from large gatherings I'm guessing where social distancing isn't enforced - like protests and other large gatherings.

Are you seriously arguing it is ok for people to die for your convenience?! Seems selfish to me.

Fear and feelings aside, we make those kinds of arguments every day. Do you know how many people die or are injured in car crashes? Do you know what decisions they have to make when they set speed limits? They know changing the limit by 5 or 10 mph saves or risks lives. They have to make that kind of decision because people have to go to places.

I don't think it's okay for people to die for my convenience, I never said that and I don't think anything I said should make you arrive at that conclusion. I'm just trying to get you to consider that these kinds of choices are made every day. Should I never get in a car and drive because there is a risk I could hit someone? No, I follow the rules and have insurance, but I take that risk to drive - as does everyone else on the road.

If I thought it was okay for people to die for my convenience, I wouldn't stop at stop signs - that's inconvenient! Who cares if I hit someone. But I do stop, because I do care.

I care about the possibility of spreading covid. I step back and allow people to walk through doorways so we aren't in it together, I stand on the 6' markings when standing in line. I don't shake hands. I use hand sanitizer when entering and leaving stores. I am okay with wearing a mask, but I don't think it is really doing anything when I wear it. I have barely been within 6' of someone for more than 15 seconds (you know, in passing). I don't think that casual contact is enough to spread covid, and from what I've heard, it isn't.

Vehicles are used in a lot of ways that are extremely valuable - in fact, in ways that quite literally preserve and save lives. How is the benefit of operating a vehicle the same as the benefit of refusing to wear a mask? This is the part I can't understand about anti-maskers. I understand the benefits of wearing a mask. I have yet to hear more than "cuz muh freedoms..." or "I don't like the way it looks / feels" as a reason to not wear a mask.

ReenieHJ · July 2020

rheddmobile wrote: »

ExistingFish wrote: »

AnnPT77 wrote: »

Without disputing the conclusion at all**, I'd observe that the research is influenza research. Is Covid transmitted identically (same droplet size needed in exhalates for transmission, and that sort of thing), same volume of virus bits needed to infect, same effect of environmentals (heat, light, airflow) on life of virus or other aspects that make it more/less contagious via exhalation, etc.?

I have no idea. Could be identical. Could be not identical. Just because it's a symptomatically similar disease, doesn't make the different virus have the same transmission characteristics, AFAIK.

I didn't link it because it was symptomatically similar, I did because it was a respiratory spread virus - not a bacteria (a previous thing posted was a guy looking at bacteria coming past a mask/not ) - I thought a meta-analysis of influenza spread that was on actual people getting actually ill was far closer to what you'd see with another respiratory virus.

I think masks help some, we've had some people sick, like a hairdresser, who saw customers and didn't spread it to them because they wore masks. That kind of one-on-one close contact? Yeah, I think masks will minimize that. Dentists? Yep.

Me walking down a 10ft wide aisle in a grocery store and passing you for 5 seconds without a mask? Not likely at all. I might not even exhale when I'm walking past you. I don't think masks do crap in this kind of situation. They're just a display.

Yeah, the thing is, as someone with lupus who sometimes takes immune-suppressing drugs, I’ve been aware of airborne disease transmission since well before Covid, and I can tell you, people (not you, but all those other people) do exhale when you walk past them. Humans are nasty, nasty things, and 99.9% of the time every single nasty, disease-bearing one of them will cough loudly, mouth wide open, jaw slack, lungs rattling with phlegm, right as I pass. I have had a runner pass me on a trail and sneeze and spatter me right in the flipping EYE. At Walgreens during flu season I feel like I’m playing an old school video game trying to avoid death, since it’s apparently not possible for anyone in this city to keep their germs to themselves.

Masks do the job for all those disgusting excuses for humans whose mommas never taught them to cover their mouths.

My dad died many years ago; he lived to be 90. On one of our trips to the ER with him, I can distinctly remember passing a woman who happened to cough right as we walked by; the timing completely sucked. My thought was ohno

, I hope he doesn't end up sick from that 3 second pass-by coughing that was unprotected by all of us. My dad ended up in the VA hospital for a week, with pneumonia. That's how quick and easily germs can pass with no barriers.

Coronavirus prep

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