Coronavirus prep
Replies
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cmriverside wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Just wanted to point out your typo, as it is a big one - S Korea has been managing to test 10K a day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
...But it remains unclear how many Americans have been tested for the coronavirus. The C.D.C. says approximately 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken since the beginning of the outbreak — a figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs.
By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first case around the same time as the United States, has reported having the capacity to test roughly 10,000 people a day since late February.
South Korea is socialized national medicine.
In the state of Washington alone between the University of Washington and the DOH, we have the capacity right now (today) of testing 2000 per day. That would be 1000 people, as the tests are done twice per person.
At this point I don't think testing or not testing is the main problem - it's getting people to stay home if they are sick, and continuing to emphasize nonpharmaceutical interventions like hand washing and covering sneezes and coughs.
I think there is more than enough testing capacity right now. They aren't going to test everyone, only those with symptoms or a contact who has tested positive or who has traveled to high-risk travel-advisory areas. I know in the North Sound (Seattle area) they have drive-through swabbing tents to keep people out of ERs. Call ahead before seeking medical care.
Not disagreeing with you, just wondering out loud. I think the fear is that all the testing kits are going to hot spots, while other places around the country are just telling people with symptoms to stay home and making a judgement call on reporting them as an assumptive case or not. Just me talking off the top of my head though!2 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
What I meant by that statement is that there are some people who won't recognize a potential problem and will continue acting irresponsibly until it's a true pandemic. This thread is long so you may not have seen my post earlier: the mask concerns are related to my mom who is a dentist and dental surgeon and needs to wear sterile gloves and masks, so shortages are worrying. People panicking is causing shortages and a big spike in prices and availability.
I don't believe in extremes, either. What I'm saying is people need to take this seriously because it is serious. Novel viruses are always serious because specifically because they're novel (even more serious when the infection rate is higher than other novel viruses we've seen). It's possible to take it seriously and take reasonable precautions (like washing hands etc..) without calling doom and emptying out the shelves. The smallest reduction in infection rates can make a significant difference in prognosis. Dismissing something as "a cold" can lead, even unintentionally, to some irresponsible behavior.
I have skimmed some of it. I wasn't referring to whether or not you needed a face mask or someone at a higher risk. I was just commenting that I didn't feel the need at this time. I won't be buying them and since I have (too much) hand sanitizer from a foolish purchase years ago I won't be buying any of it either.1 -
kshama2001 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Just wanted to point out your typo, as it is a big one - S Korea has been managing to test 10K a day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
...But it remains unclear how many Americans have been tested for the coronavirus. The C.D.C. says approximately 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken since the beginning of the outbreak — a figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs.
By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first case around the same time as the United States, has reported having the capacity to test roughly 10,000 people a day since late February.
Thanks, yeah, I'm an idiot sometimes (often actually!). But that's what I meant.4 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
What I meant by that statement is that there are some people who won't recognize a potential problem and will continue acting irresponsibly until it's a true pandemic. This thread is long so you may not have seen my post earlier: the mask concerns are related to my mom who is a dentist and dental surgeon and needs to wear sterile gloves and masks, so shortages are worrying. People panicking is causing shortages and a big spike in prices and availability.
I don't believe in extremes, either. What I'm saying is people need to take this seriously because it is serious. Novel viruses are always serious because specifically because they're novel (even more serious when the infection rate is higher than other novel viruses we've seen). It's possible to take it seriously and take reasonable precautions (like washing hands etc..) without calling doom and emptying out the shelves. The smallest reduction in infection rates can make a significant difference in prognosis. Dismissing something as "a cold" can lead, even unintentionally, to some irresponsible behavior.
I have skimmed some of it. I wasn't referring to whether or not you needed a face mask or someone at a higher risk. I was just commenting that I didn't feel the need at this time. I won't be buying them and since I have (too much) hand sanitizer from a foolish purchase years ago I won't be buying any of it either.
The doctors are begging people to stop buying masks because they are in need of them. Also wearing one while you are not sick doesn't prevent anything anyway. I would think it would be more of a risk if you are not changing it often with all of the secretions building up.3 -
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I've been reading within this thread, that some of you bought hand sanitizer years ago that you're still using. January I just threw away some that I bought plausibly 3 years ago, their expiration dates were nearly a year ago.1
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tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
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The surgeon general is on Dr. Oz right now saying if you’ve got it, please don’t go to the emergency room or your Dr. unless you really think you need to because of underlying reasons or you’re extremely sick. He said 80%? Of people who have it don’t need to go the Dr. Of The people who do go to the Dr., 98% or more will recover completely.
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
I DID look that up, and couldn't find any info on death rates. I think if it was 7-15%, it might be easier to find on Dr. Google...
Also, I did state I was with you on not being a shut-in--it's just when you called it "a cold" that I call you out. Sure, call it a cold if you want--a mutated cold that overwhelms hospitals and medical personnel, and kills.
Calling it a cold is a metaphor. Except for public panic, Covid-19 isn't significantly different than the common cold.
But that simply isn't true. The common cold is... common. Covid-19 is by definition a novel virus.
You are assuming it will end up having the same risk factors as a cold. And it's presence out in the world is essentially doubling everyone's risk as it is out there in addition to the regular flu, plus the actual common cold.
Granted, the majority of us have a very small risk of the common cold, the seasonal flu, or probably even the novel virus leading to a more life threatening case of pneumonia or other respiratory infection, so doubling that risk isn't a big deal. As a member of a community, I think it's my responsibility to help the vulnerable in my community mitigate their risk, obviously you don't agree and that's fine. But diminishing the increased risk to the community because it doesn't really affect you isn't necessary. And I doubt you'd find an infectious disease expert or respiratory doctor who would sign off on a novel flu virus being the same risk to vulnerable people as the common cold, though I could certainly be wrong on that.24 -
DecadeDuchess wrote: »I've been reading within this thread, that some of you bought hand sanitizer years ago that you're still using. January I just threw away some that I bought plausibly 3 years ago, their expiration dates were nearly a year ago.
The "jug" I bought is easily more than 7 years old. I prefer my hand sanitizer well-aged. I have considered getting an oak cask to store it in.
If it does not go in my mouth the only expiration date that I can think of that might concern me is on a fire extinguisher.12 -
WHO has just declared Coronavirus is now a pandemic.
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MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Early on, the US turned down the World Health Organization’s offer of test kits that 60 other countries are using, in favor of making our own. I blame our govt at the highest level dor mismanaging our nation’s early response to the virus.
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tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Here in Boston, St. Patrick's Day was first celebrated March 17, 1737.
St. Patrick's Day is an official holiday in Suffolk County, and an unofficial one in the rest of the state - it is the same day as the official Evacuation Day holiday, which commemorates the day in 1776 that British troops ended their occupation of Boston.
Our parade was cancelled a few days ago.4 -
DecadeDuchess wrote: »I've been reading within this thread, that some of you bought hand sanitizer years ago that you're still using. January I just threw away some that I bought plausibly 3 years ago, their expiration dates were nearly a year ago.
The "jug" I bought is easily more than 7 years old. I prefer my hand sanitizer well-aged. I have considered getting an oak cask to store it in.
If it does not go in my mouth the only expiration date that I can think of that might concern me is on a fire extinguisher.
Just checked mine. It expired last month. Considering I have had it for 2 years and only used a couple of squirts in that time I am not going to dump it and try to get new. If I really think I need it, I might pour a little additional alcohol in it. I do have a full quart of 91% isopropyl.2 -
kshama2001 wrote: »tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Here in Boston, St. Patrick's Day was first celebrated March 17, 1737.
St. Patrick's Day is an official holiday in Suffolk County, and an unofficial one in the rest of the state - it is the same day as the official Evacuation Day holiday, which commemorates the day in 1776 that British troops ended their occupation of Boston.
Our parade was cancelled a few days ago.
Fun fact: the first St. Patrick's Day parade in the world was in St. Augustine, Florida in 1601. Wouldn't think of that as a hotbed of Irish sentiment but apparently the barracks priest was Irish.4 -
tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)6 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
I DID look that up, and couldn't find any info on death rates. I think if it was 7-15%, it might be easier to find on Dr. Google...
Also, I did state I was with you on not being a shut-in--it's just when you called it "a cold" that I call you out. Sure, call it a cold if you want--a mutated cold that overwhelms hospitals and medical personnel, and kills.
Calling it a cold is a metaphor. Except for public panic, Covid-19 isn't significantly different than the common cold.
But that simply isn't true. The common cold is... common. Covid-19 is by definition a novel virus.
You are assuming it will end up having the same risk factors as a cold. And it's presence out in the world is essentially doubling everyone's risk as it is out there in addition to the regular flu, plus the actual common cold.
Granted, the majority of us have a very small risk of the common cold, the seasonal flu, or probably even the novel virus leading to a more life threatening case of pneumonia or other respiratory infection, so doubling that risk isn't a big deal. As a member of a community, I think it's my responsibility to help the vulnerable in my community mitigate their risk, obviously you don't agree and that's fine. But diminishing the increased risk to the community because it doesn't really affect you isn't necessary. And I doubt you'd find an infectious disease expert or respiratory doctor who would sign off on a novel flu virus being the same risk to vulnerable people as the common cold, though I could certainly be wrong on that.
I'm not assuming anything, I am making conclusions based on what is known about the common cold and about Covid-19.I think it's my responsibility to help the vulnerable in my community mitigate their risk, obviously you don't agree and that's fine.
You came to that conclusion because I refuse to be a shut in?! I suppose if that is your definition... but I can tell you based on my observation that you people who are unwilling to leave home are the minority. So if I am the *kitten* for coming out in public, most other people are *kitten* also.1 -
tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)
No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?5 -
Hey folks - please remember this discussion is intended to be a place where members in our community can share what we are doing to prepare for the pandemic, how its impacting ourselves and those around us, etc..
I absolutely understand this a big topic of conversation and folks are going to want to be discussing it. Personally I have enjoyed observing the discussion, hearing from members with different points of views, in different parts of the world having a reasonable and respectful discussion. I am not finding this say on, news comments discussions.
Please remember, the discussion is not in debate, feel free to create a debate version, but this is in general, so let's please keep it friendly, respectful and avoid turning this isn't a debate or argument.
And wash your hands.26 -
edit because Alex slipped that in and we cross-posted and now my little joke seems disrespectful. Not my intent, at all.10
-
tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)
No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?
Owning my disagree. I think that avoiding massive crowds during a known and named pandemic is not excessively cautious.
And wherever they get the funds from, if no one comes because of fear of crowds, it will have been a waste of money.
My opinion is obviously to cancel big and crowded events.13 -
CupcakeCrusoe wrote: »tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)
No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?
Owning my disagree. I think that avoiding massive crowds during a known and named pandemic is not excessively cautious.
And wherever they get the funds from, if no one comes because of fear of crowds, it will have been a waste of money.
My opinion is obviously to cancel big and crowded events.
The governor of Washington has mandated this as of an hour and a half ago.
Gatherings larger than 250.5 -
Hey folks - please remember this discussion is intended to be a place where members in our community can share what we are doing to prepare for the pandemic, how its impacting ourselves and those around us, etc..
I absolutely understand this a big topic of conversation and folks are going to want to be discussing it. Personally I have enjoyed observing the discussion, hearing from members with different points of views, in different parts of the world having a reasonable and respectful discussion. I am not finding this say on, news comments discussions.
Please remember, the discussion is not in debate, feel free to create a debate version, but this is in general, so let's please keep it friendly, respectful and avoid turning this isn't a debate or argument.
And wash your hands.
I LOVE and APPRECIATE you Alex, Betty and ALL of the super fabulous Mfp staff so much!
Mfp has absolutely, positively, unequivocally changed my entire life (and the lives of untold thousands/maybe millions of other people as well) for the total better and mere words simply can't describe/express how much I LOVE this site so much!
Thank you for this admonition and again, MUCH love to ALL that you and the wonderful Mfp staff for taking the time, love/care and professionalism daily--to keep this site a beautiful place to hang out. Y'all rock, period.
{{{{
Love and HUGS to you ALL again }}}} 8 -
CupcakeCrusoe wrote: »tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)
No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?
Owning my disagree. I think that avoiding massive crowds during a known and named pandemic is not excessively cautious.
And wherever they get the funds from, if no one comes because of fear of crowds, it will have been a waste of money.
My opinion is obviously to cancel big and crowded events.
I have no experience with NY but isn't living there and visiting there basically signing up to be in crowds on a regular basis? Also, I would be more worried in a confined space with limited ventilation.
I won't return the disagree. I haven't actually used that function yet (unless it was hit by accident) and also because you are stating a reasonable opinion. You can disagree with my opinion that it is not an easy choice if you like.3 -
https://cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-latest-updates.html
I am starting to think about our supply of food for the cats, dogs and horses as well if the supply chain is impacted. We now have food for ourselves to some degree. Due to college classes being morphed over to on-line we got more food since the daughter will be eating at home more so we made a run to Walmart again and now am up to 150 cans of tuna in olive oil with a lot of other canned items like pickled boiled eggs. We are finding our local WM well stocked at 1 am in the morning. Those of us 60+ really need to be careful. Planes for the past few months has carried COVID-19 to all the airports of the world I expect.
Yes panicking is dumb as well as blowing this risk off as just the risk of a bad cold.6 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
I DID look that up, and couldn't find any info on death rates. I think if it was 7-15%, it might be easier to find on Dr. Google...
Also, I did state I was with you on not being a shut-in--it's just when you called it "a cold" that I call you out. Sure, call it a cold if you want--a mutated cold that overwhelms hospitals and medical personnel, and kills.
Calling it a cold is a metaphor. Except for public panic, Covid-19 isn't significantly different than the common cold.
But that simply isn't true. The common cold is... common. Covid-19 is by definition a novel virus.
You are assuming it will end up having the same risk factors as a cold. And it's presence out in the world is essentially doubling everyone's risk as it is out there in addition to the regular flu, plus the actual common cold.
Granted, the majority of us have a very small risk of the common cold, the seasonal flu, or probably even the novel virus leading to a more life threatening case of pneumonia or other respiratory infection, so doubling that risk isn't a big deal. As a member of a community, I think it's my responsibility to help the vulnerable in my community mitigate their risk, obviously you don't agree and that's fine. But diminishing the increased risk to the community because it doesn't really affect you isn't necessary. And I doubt you'd find an infectious disease expert or respiratory doctor who would sign off on a novel flu virus being the same risk to vulnerable people as the common cold, though I could certainly be wrong on that.
I'm not assuming anything, I am making conclusions based on what is known about the common cold and about Covid-19.I think it's my responsibility to help the vulnerable in my community mitigate their risk, obviously you don't agree and that's fine.
You came to that conclusion because I refuse to be a shut in?! I suppose if that is your definition... but I can tell you based on my observation that you people who are unwilling to leave home are the minority. So if I am the *kitten* for coming out in public, most other people are *kitten* also.
Legit question because maybe I'm missing something, but can you point me to "what is known"? Because folks in the field don't seem to know it, unless I am clearly misreading something. Not being a medical pro myself, this is quite possible, and I'd like to learn more if I can.
There is a huge difference between avoiding crowds and being a shut-in. Regardless, my issue was only how it sounds to me like you are downplaying the overall risk because the risk to you personally is in your opinion negligible. I have no doubt that most other people are looking at it the same way, that's why I'm concerned. Anyway, I don't think it's your responsibility to be a shut-in, I apologize if what I typed came out that way.
ETA: and now I see we've been warned while I was replying, and I hope this wasn't seen as belaboring an argument. I would honestly like to be pointed to resources that assert that covid-19 is no worse than the common cold, as that would ease my mind a bit!7 -
kshama2001 wrote: »tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Here in Boston, St. Patrick's Day was first celebrated March 17, 1737.
St. Patrick's Day is an official holiday in Suffolk County, and an unofficial one in the rest of the state - it is the same day as the official Evacuation Day holiday, which commemorates the day in 1776 that British troops ended their occupation of Boston.
Our parade was cancelled a few days ago.
We were joking about how Boston and Ireland's parades were canceled and we were holding off.
It was pretty clear yesterday we would cancel it.
Yay, we can still dye the river.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwG2K-__2GA
Our primary this year is 3/17, and I normally am against voting early for a primary, but I think I'll go ahead and vote tomorrow.3 -
cmriverside wrote: »CupcakeCrusoe wrote: »tinkerbellang83 wrote: »Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
*snipped*
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.
Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.
(^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)
No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?
Owning my disagree. I think that avoiding massive crowds during a known and named pandemic is not excessively cautious.
And wherever they get the funds from, if no one comes because of fear of crowds, it will have been a waste of money.
My opinion is obviously to cancel big and crowded events.
The governor of Washington has mandated this as of an hour and a half ago.
Gatherings larger than 250.
Why 250? Is there a reason to believe that 251 will spread the virus more? That smacks of doing something to be seen doing something.9 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Early on, the US turned down the World Health Organization’s offer of test kits that 60 other countries are using, in favor of making our own. I blame our govt at the highest level dor mismanaging our nation’s early response to the virus.
IL started testing on its own (and made a deal with insurers so they are free to those who want a test), but still seems to be short of tests (as is the US in general). 2 days ago they said they'd tested 268 and 30-some were outstanding and 8 positive came in yesterday. I assume they would be testing more if they had the tests0 -
Switzerland banned gatherings of more than 1000 people a week ago. We're still stuffed like sardines in the commuter trains.
We're 10th in the ranking of case numbers. We're *only* had 3 deaths so far, but that probably was luck more than anything else.
There's talk of the army setting up the emergency hospitals (which are in protected underground locations and are meant to be used in times of war to keep the sick and injured safe).6
https://youtu.be/QwIplXfjew4
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