Coronavirus prep

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  • NovusDies
    NovusDies Posts: 8,940 Member
    edited March 2020
    NovusDies wrote: »
    AnnPT77 wrote: »
    earlnabby wrote: »
    Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).

    *snipped*

    Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.

    Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.

    I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.

    I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.

    Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.


    Or, perhaps, if the New York one is not cancelled, that decision will bring the Apocalypse upon us.

    (^^^ Intended as a wry, dark-humor joke. Clearly, authorities' role in managing large-attendance events is a serious consideration when it comes to the spread of the virus, and each decision is nuanced and specific. I hope they are well-advised by true experts. While I think authorities are capable of bad decisions (of course), I think it's much more common for some non-experts' "gut feelings" (mistaken for reasoning or common sense) to be less functional than the reasoning of experts who've studied and worked in a field for years to decades, and for some of those non-experts to trumpet their views, arrogantly, as more true and sensible than the eggheads'. Possible? Sure. Likely? No.)

    No matter what decision they make it will be judged in hindsight like many of the other decisions have been. It is always easy to know what the right choice is/was if you know the outcome. It might always seem like erring on the side of caution is prudent but if we all did that we would be permanently paralyzed because there is no safe. How many people in lock down areas will die in their homes alone because they were not in public when they had a medical emergency like a heart attack or stroke?

    Owning my disagree. I think that avoiding massive crowds during a known and named pandemic is not excessively cautious.

    And wherever they get the funds from, if no one comes because of fear of crowds, it will have been a waste of money.

    My opinion is obviously to cancel big and crowded events.

    I have no experience with NY but isn't living there and visiting there basically signing up to be in crowds on a regular basis? Also, I would be more worried in a confined space with limited ventilation.

    I won't return the disagree. I haven't actually used that function yet (unless it was hit by accident) and also because you are stating a reasonable opinion. You can disagree with my opinion that it is not an easy choice if you like.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    earlnabby wrote: »
    Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).

    *snipped*

    Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.

    Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.

    I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.

    I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.

    Just heard: now we know it is bad because the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago was just cancelled. The New York one, which has been held every year since 1762, so far is still happening. If they shut that one down, we know the Apocalypse is upon us.

    Here in Boston, St. Patrick's Day was first celebrated March 17, 1737.

    St. Patrick's Day is an official holiday in Suffolk County, and an unofficial one in the rest of the state - it is the same day as the official Evacuation Day holiday, which commemorates the day in 1776 that British troops ended their occupation of Boston.

    Our parade was cancelled a few days ago.

    We were joking about how Boston and Ireland's parades were canceled and we were holding off.

    It was pretty clear yesterday we would cancel it.

    Yay, we can still dye the river.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwG2K-__2GA

    Our primary this year is 3/17, and I normally am against voting early for a primary, but I think I'll go ahead and vote tomorrow.
  • lemurcat2
    lemurcat2 Posts: 7,885 Member
    whmscll wrote: »
    I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.

    Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.

    I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.

    Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.

    When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.

    From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.

    Early on, the US turned down the World Health Organization’s offer of test kits that 60 other countries are using, in favor of making our own. I blame our govt at the highest level dor mismanaging our nation’s early response to the virus.

    IL started testing on its own (and made a deal with insurers so they are free to those who want a test), but still seems to be short of tests (as is the US in general). 2 days ago they said they'd tested 268 and 30-some were outstanding and 8 positive came in yesterday. I assume they would be testing more if they had the tests
  • lightenup2016
    lightenup2016 Posts: 1,055 Member
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    Nony_Mouse wrote: »
    I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.

    I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.

    The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.

    We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.

    It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.


    Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.
    I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.

    I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.

    The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.

    We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.

    Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.

    Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.

    I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.


    [ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]

    The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.

    ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.

    FYI the mortality rate for diabetics of any age is 7.3%.

    You didn't post a source for that statistic, and I couldn't find an answer quickly online, but...would you not agree that coronavirus would increase their risk further?

    Sorry for not being clear. That mortality is the reported mortality rate from China for diabetic patients with Coronavirus of all ages. It’s on the same article which was posted above mine under “comorbidites.” So, if you are a diabetic and get this, you have about a one in fourteen chance of death. Diabetes is the second largest single factor in comorbity following heart disease. That to me is an unacceptably high risk.

    I was responding to a diabetic and I am one myself. If you are a diabetic you should be taking special precautions because you are in a high risk category.

    If this disease is similar to flu, having your diabetes well controlled makes little difference, because the reason for the comorbity has to do with the way a healthy body manipulates glucose stores in order to fight off bacteria and viruses. Diabetics don’t do that in the same way, which makes them more vulnerable to many illnesses.

    Ah, thank you for the clarification! 😊
  • Chef_Barbell
    Chef_Barbell Posts: 6,646 Member
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    ladyreva78 wrote: »
    Switzerland banned gatherings of more than 1000 people a week ago. We're still stuffed like sardines in the commuter trains. :neutral:

    We're 10th in the ranking of case numbers. We're *only* had 3 deaths so far, but that probably was luck more than anything else.

    There's talk of the army setting up the emergency hospitals (which are in protected underground locations and are meant to be used in times of war to keep the sick and injured safe).

    The mayor of New York City is catching a lot of flack from late night comics for his suggestion to avoid crowded subway cars...because who would CHOOSE that?

    Subway ridership here has went down significantly... as well as the buses. Something is working.
  • kshama2001
    kshama2001 Posts: 27,881 Member
    edited March 2020
    kshama2001 wrote: »
    ladyreva78 wrote: »
    Switzerland banned gatherings of more than 1000 people a week ago. We're still stuffed like sardines in the commuter trains. :neutral:

    We're 10th in the ranking of case numbers. We're *only* had 3 deaths so far, but that probably was luck more than anything else.

    There's talk of the army setting up the emergency hospitals (which are in protected underground locations and are meant to be used in times of war to keep the sick and injured safe).

    The mayor of New York City is catching a lot of flack from late night comics for his suggestion to avoid crowded subway cars...because who would CHOOSE that?

    Subway ridership here has went down significantly... as well as the buses. Something is working.

    I was listening to the NPR radio show "Here & Now" earlier and the host said he was on a plane yesterday - with only 8 passengers.

    Lots of discussion about the airline industry. One person was opposed to any bailouts for airline corporations unless they also waive fees for people who have to cancel their flights.