Coronavirus prep
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T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]15 -
for @kimny72
This article is from the point of view of the nurses at the hospital here in Kirkland which has been treating all the patients who have died here, and their take on the communication level(s) from management:
https://www.kuow.org/stories/evergreenhealth-employees-concerned-coronavirus-risk
It was written on the third, so hopefully no one on the team has become ill. I couldn't find any stats on that.1 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
but back in the days of WWII, the US still had a strong manufacturing base; things have greatly changed in the last 80 years. Now most items considered essential to every day life are being made over seas and shipped in; the economy has gone global and America has gone away from a manufacturing economy to more of a services economy. Hence why companies like Proctor & Gamble were warning of supply bottlenecks and possible shortages. I think someone earlier in the thread pointed out that there's only one company in the US that makes the masks and they've been unable to keep up with the demand; they can't just instantly hire a bunch of people and buy a bunch of equipment and land and expand their production line overnight or even within a month or two. It's not easy to just throw up a factory overnight (then or now), especially when you don't already have the tools to build the parts needed for that factory. Factories today also require much more complex equipment than in that time, too. And industry has technolized itself now to the point where the old techniques for human production of these items have been lost.
My industry is the perfect example: I work in the power utility industry. Power flow on the main transmission lines across the country ( the main trunk lines, not the lines you see in your neighborhood) are anywhere from 138,000 volts to 765,000 volts. It takes highly specialized equipment to handle that sort of high voltage, especially the transformers. But there are no domestic manufactures of the large, high voltage transformers at all - they all come from over seas with as much as a 3 year lead time. I think there is one plant in Mexican that is starting to make some of the 138,000 volt ones, but there are 0 in the US that do so. If a company has a large, high voltage transformer fail, they must either bring in technicians from over seas to repair it, temporary re-route the system to bypass it until a replacement is found, or search around to see if other companies have a spare one they'd be willing to sell. If there were a huge disaster that destroyed a large chunk of the high powered grid, it would be impossible to quickly rebuild the system because there is no way that the manufacturers of the small transformers here in North America would ever be able to upgrade their factories fast enough to be able to build a high voltage transformer - it would take just as much time for them to upgrade as it would be to get one built and shipped over from South Korea.15 -
cmriverside wrote: »for @kimny72
This article is from the point of view of the nurses at the hospital here in Kirkland which has been treating all the patients who have died here, and their take on the communication level(s) from management:
https://www.kuow.org/stories/evergreenhealth-employees-concerned-coronavirus-risk
It was written on the third, so hopefully no one on the team has become ill. I couldn't find any stats on that.
Oy vey, corporate medicine in action. I'd think the story would've been latched onto if medical personnel in any of those facilities had gotten sick, so like you say hopefully they are in the clear.
Thanks1 -
bmeadows380 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
but back in the days of WWII, the US still had a strong manufacturing base; things have greatly changed in the last 80 years. Now most items considered essential to every day life are being made over seas and shipped in; the economy has gone global and America has gone away from a manufacturing economy to more of a services economy. Hence why companies like Proctor & Gamble were warning of supply bottlenecks and possible shortages. I think someone earlier in the thread pointed out that there's only one company in the US that makes the masks and they've been unable to keep up with the demand; they can't just instantly hire a bunch of people and buy a bunch of equipment and land and expand their production line overnight or even within a month or two. It's not easy to just throw up a factory overnight (then or now), especially when you don't already have the tools to build the parts needed for that factory. Factories today also require much more complex equipment than in that time, too. And industry has technolized itself now to the point where the old techniques for human production of these items have been lost.
My industry is the perfect example: I work in the power utility industry. Power flow on the main transmission lines across the country ( the main trunk lines, not the lines you see in your neighborhood) are anywhere from 138,000 volts to 765,000 volts. It takes highly specialized equipment to handle that sort of high voltage, especially the transformers. But there are no domestic manufactures of the large, high voltage transformers at all - they all come from over seas with as much as a 3 year lead time. I think there is one plant in Mexican that is starting to make some of the 138,000 volt ones, but there are 0 in the US that do so. If a company has a large, high voltage transformer fail, they must either bring in technicians from over seas to repair it, temporary re-route the system to bypass it until a replacement is found, or search around to see if other companies have a spare one they'd be willing to sell. If there were a huge disaster that destroyed a large chunk of the high powered grid, it would be impossible to quickly rebuild the system because there is no way that the manufacturers of the small transformers here in North America would ever be able to upgrade their factories fast enough to be able to build a high voltage transformer - it would take just as much time for them to upgrade as it would be to get one built and shipped over from South Korea.
I've read articles that they've had tests at state levels, especially in Washington State. The CDC wouldn't let them use them. Were the perfect? Likely not, but better than nothing, which is what they were left with.
I agree completely with much of what you're saying, but dollars fix a lot of things quickly and we're on of the richest countries in the world. We have many "job shops" all over the US with the proper machines, CNC equipment, lasers, drill punches, etc. The entire Northeast machine shops are built mostly to provide aerospace and military complex support. No one can tell me they can't change that quickly to make intubation equipment. If there were a real challenge to the power grid, I'm sure they could do the same if the priority is laid out that way. They have the capabilities, with the plans, to do that almost overnight. Actually, the tubing might be harder to come by.
We agree on the masks. But can't they come up with alternatives? Isn't there a better mask? By the time we have masks, they will be having to use hazmat suits. Perhaps S Korea, after it contains it, can supply the US with the proper equipment. That's sad, but reality. But as this article shows, if you prioritize it, factories can literally be built nearly overnight. Foxxcon can produce 2M masks a day by the end of the month? But we're just looking at one supplier in TX to do it all? https://time.com/5785223/medical-masks-coronavirus-covid-19/3 -
360 cal per tiny sliver but made babies day
Well baby bucked at underwear o today but we saved 4 diapers yesterday!! Yay 😁
Today he wants diapers cried so will let him but told him he had to sit this morning to get it. So 1 diaper saved still !! Yay 😀
Every diaper saved is less to hunt for.
Got terry cloth towels if need be for cloth diapers or cloth inserts for his training underwear 🩲 y 3 sewing 🧵 baskets 🧺 full of sewing 🧵 threads,needles,buttons,etc I can create some. No plastic underpants tho but got the plastic inside underwear. Lol hubby joked we could eat the old cloth rice bag we use for heating y cooling for ouchies .Told him after all the moisture lol probably nasty inside by now. (Made it 4yrs ago!)
Hubby managed to get baby a Birthday 🎁 Cake! Worker wearing a mask 😷 they didn’t write on it. He got it straight from the head baker 👩🍳 she made sure to box it up gloves y mask on get it to him directly.So sweet of her.4 -
JRsLateInLifeMom wrote: »
360 cal per tiny sliver but made babies day
Well baby bucked at underwear o today but we saved 4 diapers yesterday!! Yay 😁
Today he wants diapers cried so will let him but told him he had to sit this morning to get it. So 1 diaper saved still !! Yay 😀
Every diaper saved is less to hunt for.
Got terry cloth towels if need be for cloth diapers or cloth inserts for his training underwear 🩲 y 3 sewing 🧵 baskets 🧺 full of sewing 🧵 threads,needles,buttons,etc I can create some. No plastic underpants tho but got the plastic inside underwear. Lol hubby joked we could eat the old cloth rice bag we use for heating y cooling for ouchies .Told him after all the moisture lol probably nasty inside by now. (Made it 4yrs ago!)
Hubby managed to get baby a Birthday 🎁 Cake! Worker wearing a mask 😷 they didn’t write on it. He got it straight from the head baker 👩🍳 she made sure to box it up gloves y mask on get it to him directly.So sweet of her.
But you put it on the floor? Defeats the purpose doesn't it. 😂
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For death rate by age (and the website has another chart with death rates by comorbidity):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
There are two sources that provide age, sex, and comorbidity statistics:
The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO, [2] which is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic" (see also our discussion on: How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak)
A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1]
Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.4 -
cmriverside wrote: »for @kimny72
This article is from the point of view of the nurses at the hospital here in Kirkland which has been treating all the patients who have died here, and their take on the communication level(s) from management:
https://www.kuow.org/stories/evergreenhealth-employees-concerned-coronavirus-risk
It was written on the third, so hopefully no one on the team has become ill. I couldn't find any stats on that.
Oy vey, corporate medicine in action. I'd think the story would've been latched onto if medical personnel in any of those facilities had gotten sick, so like you say hopefully they are in the clear.
Thanks
The Life Care nursing facility where the majority of the patients came from has several staff members with symptoms. 120 residents were living there at the time of the outbreak and just about as many total employees, plus all the visitors in and out in the last 14 days. I don't know the infection percentage.
The math again.
edit to add this article. No idea why it took nearly two weeks to start testing the employees... https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-testing-starts-for-life-care-center-employees
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Luckily I just bleached y waxed the floor last night so it’s clean.I used to clean pass black light tests so Hotels liked to have me clean the rooms the inspector checked. The others couldn’t pass lol 😂. He put it on the floor he wanted the cake so bad..just lucky he didn’t drop it.
This is the same kid who waits to lick 👅 the window every time my hands are full. He’ll be fine. Plus we don’t invite folks over put our inside shoes on at the door leave our outside shoes outside the door. It’s not how Hubby was brought up but he learned. My family does this but we are mixed race well you adopt the ways of your race. Well it’s considered in one of my cultures to wear your outside shoes in the house especially with young children 👶 crawling around or playing on the floor to be Rude.3 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
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amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
I'm sure that poster's point was that if people feel like it was all overblown and exaggerated because there were successful containment efforts, then when the next illness blows through, people will not take precaution.8 -
Been lurking in this thread for a couple of days, thought I'd drop in the latest from Ireland. At the time of writing we have around 34 confirmed cases in the Republic (South of Ireland) and there are further cases in Northern Ireland (which fall under the UK's stats).
So far we have several hospitals in my county that have cases both through overseas travel and community spread, they have supposedly banned visitors from the hospital, but people are still visiting patients. The advice is very mixed and the Health Service advice is basically if you feel well carry on as normal, even if you've been to a high risk area or in close contact with someone who has been infected. Self isolation has only been recommended for those showing symptoms. Even before the outbreak the country's hospitals have issues with patients being on trolleys instead of in wards.
Businesses are doing their own thing with varying degrees of care, Apple have a massive HQ here and have a confirmed case (also recently had the first case of Rubella known in Ireland in over a decade), they have not closed down that department, just told the people in the immediate vicinity of Patient x's desk to self-isolate, some other businesses with confirmed cases have closed down their buildings for deep clean and requested all staff to self-isolate. I do think there should be a more measured response to confirmed cases and that these should be consistently implemented by businesses and organisations and failures to do so, taken to task.
Schools and universities are open as normal. There has been no overall ban on large gatherings. There was a huge unnecessary political debate between the IRFU and the Minister for Health about the cancellation of the Six Nations Ireland v Italy game, with noone initially wanting to take responsibility for the cancellation of the game. The St Patrick's parades were going to go ahead, then they weren't, then they were and now have finally been cancelled.
Panic buying seems to be a bit hit and miss, some commuter towns have absolutely no toilet roll, pasta, etc on the shelves but city centre supermarkets are pretty quiet compared to normal with full stocks of everything.
I keep a mild interest in the media around it for work purposes (I deal with international travel for our employees) but I get most of my facts and figures from this site, which deals mostly in just stats without the fear-mongering sensationalist headlines. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and keep an eye on major airlines sites such as Cathay Pacific to see what the story is with current travel restrictions.
I am not in the panic stage myself, I have some meals prepped in the chest freezer, adequate normal supplies of cleaning products and consumables, as I normally buy large packs anyway to cut down on plastic waste. I am of the opinion that it is here now, it is going to affect us all at some stage whether directly or indirectly, we can just do our best to minimise the risk to ourselves and to those around us by practicing good hygiene, sensible risk assessment and doing what we can to maximise the effectiveness of the immune system through decent sleep, healthy diet, exercise, etc.
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lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.3 -
lightenup2016 wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
I'm sure that poster's point was that if people feel like it was all overblown and exaggerated because there were successful containment efforts, then when the next illness blows through, people will not take precaution.
That will always happen too though. It is human nature. Some people will live in denial. Others think the virus is right outside their door waiting to pounce. I do not like either approach.5 -
^^This, common sense prevails.
I agree 100%
Good hand washing and coughing/sneezing into your elbow are key at this point. I’ve read that masks are not necessary for the general public, and because of the shortages, should saved for the health care workers use.1 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
I DID look that up, and couldn't find any info on death rates. I think if it was 7-15%, it might be easier to find on Dr. Google...
Also, I did state I was with you on not being a shut-in--it's just when you called it "a cold" that I call you out. Sure, call it a cold if you want--a mutated cold that overwhelms hospitals and medical personnel, and kills.9 -
amusedmonkey wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »amusedmonkey wrote: »jseams1234 wrote: »snowflake954 wrote: »extra_medium wrote: »Italy in bad shape. Over 600 dead and over 10k active cases. Hospitals stopped all operations / procedures and overflowing caring for covid patients. Bad scene! We need to be vigilant and people need to stop poo pooing claiming it's just no worse than a regular flu blah blah it is killing people globally.
The regular flu kills people globally
We have the regular flu every year in Italy--it's not on this scale.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week
This was 2019/2020. Almost 3 Million cases reported by Jan 19 and half a million additional in just one week. At the time of the report deaths were approaching 300. I'm not downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 but the only difference in scale (the flu was worse) is mostly in the response to the outbreak.
CV is obviously harder to treat and it is killing a far higher percentage of people.
Not to mention it all adds up. You aren't getting COVID-19 cases instead of flu cases, you're getting them in addition to flu. Even if we assume it's spreading at exactly the same rate and has the exact same mortality rate (it's not and it doesn't), would people be okay with the usual flu doubling in spread and mortality? At least we have flu vaccines if that happens so it would be easier to contain.
The other thing people seem to forget with these 'flu comparisons is that the flu is/was already in the community. This coronavirus strain is brand spanking new. And if people keep acting like complacent muppets with essentially the same attitude as people who hold chicken pox parties for their kids, coronavirus is going to catch up with those 'flu stats pretty quickly.
Exactly. Unlike seasonal flu, this one has pandemic potential because not many people are immune to any variation of it like they are to many variations of the seasonal flu virus. In fact, saying it's "just like the flu" is even scarier. It basically means high rates of spread and mutation without the cushion of the immunity we developed to many seasonal flu virus strains over more than a few centuries. Who knows what it may mutate to if we don't take action to contain it now.
Sadly, if containment efforts are successful you'll hear a lot of "See? The whole thing was overblown" thrown around.
Our family is not personally worried (other than about the sterile mask shortage, for now) so we aren't stockpiling goods (only one case in the country currently in quarantine and no new cases in the last 7 days), but this doesn't mean we aren't taking it seriously.
It definitely does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the flu otherwise the numbers of infected people would be substantially higher. I think the original advice of washing your hands will reduce the risk of catching and spreading it for now. I think a face mask is overkill for me right now. Oddly enough though I do own some because I have a very sensitive gag reflex.
To the bolded I am not sure you thought that through before posting it. It would be a good thing if it was contained enough for people to write it off as a hoax. Medical facilities are being overtaxed by the number of serious cases and some people are dying from it. I don't personally care if some people choose to believe the moon landing was faked. That will always be the case. It makes no difference.
I do not like to travel in extremes. I recognize that there is money to be made so that will bend the truth at times but this is certainly no hoax. I think it unwise to simply say that because money will be made, as is always the case, that all information is false or exaggerated.
What I meant by that statement is that there are some people who won't recognize a potential problem and will continue acting irresponsibly until it's a true pandemic. This thread is long so you may not have seen my post earlier: the mask concerns are related to my mom who is a dentist and dental surgeon and needs to wear sterile gloves and masks, so shortages are worrying. People panicking is causing shortages and a big spike in prices and availability.
I don't believe in extremes, either. What I'm saying is people need to take this seriously because it is serious. Novel viruses are always serious because specifically because they're novel (even more serious when the infection rate is higher than other novel viruses we've seen). It's possible to take it seriously and take reasonable precautions (like washing hands etc..) without calling doom and emptying out the shelves. The smallest reduction in infection rates can make a significant difference in prognosis. Dismissing something as "a cold" can lead, even unintentionally, to some irresponsible behavior.7 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
FYI the mortality rate for diabetics of any age is 7.3%.
9 -
BarbaraHelen2013 wrote: »In a slightly ironic twist of fate...it’s just been reported in the UK that the Health Minister (who also happens to be my constituency M.P.) has tested positive and is self isolating. 🤔
Yes, I saw that, and that she first felt symptoms when signing something coronavirus-related, and that she attended an event hosted by the prime minister.1 -
Bballnguitarz wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »Bballnguitarz wrote: »kshama2001 wrote: »You couldn't pay me to get on a cruise ship right now:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/05/812456413/coronavirus-cruise-ship-in-limbo-off-california-after-former-passenger-died
I wish I would've known about the virus last year when I booked my cruise lol Oh well. As long as I wash my hands constantly and use hand sanitizer I should be alright. Norwegian Cruise Line has been keeping us pretty informed of all of the steps they're taking in response to the virus. They're not messing around lol
Not to fearmonger, but the air filtration systems are also part of the issue on cruise ships. Air goes from cabin to cabin, with outside air being mixed with inside air. The filters aren't fine enough to pick up the virus (unlike planes, which recirculate air, but have filters than can keep the virus out of the air).
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-25/how-coronavirus-raced-through-quarantined-cruise-ship
Definitely good to know! Unfortunately, there's not much I can do about that now lol I can't cancel my reservation and receive a refund because I'm sailing in 8 days, plus I don't meet their criteria for being eligible for a refund.
I'm just going to cough as loud as possible to try and keep people away from me as much as possible lol JK!
EDIT: Norwegian now says we can cancel our cruise up to 48 hours before we sail, but we decided to just go on it anyways. Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll be a fairly empty cruise!3 -
MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Just wanted to point out your typo, as it is a big one - S Korea has been managing to test 10K a day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
...But it remains unclear how many Americans have been tested for the coronavirus. The C.D.C. says approximately 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken since the beginning of the outbreak — a figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs.
By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first case around the same time as the United States, has reported having the capacity to test roughly 10,000 people a day since late February.4 -
lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
I DID look that up, and couldn't find any info on death rates. I think if it was 7-15%, it might be easier to find on Dr. Google...
Also, I did state I was with you on not being a shut-in--it's just when you called it "a cold" that I call you out. Sure, call it a cold if you want--a mutated cold that overwhelms hospitals and medical personnel, and kills.
Calling it a cold is a metaphor. Except for public panic, Covid-19 isn't significantly different than the common cold.3 -
rheddmobile wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
FYI the mortality rate for diabetics of any age is 7.3%.
I assume that includes type 2, which is an entirely different disease than what I have? My immune system with type 1, on paper, shouldn't be any worse than anyone else as long as my BG's are well controlled. In my experience, my immune system is actually far better than average.1 -
rheddmobile wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
FYI the mortality rate for diabetics of any age is 7.3%.
You didn't post a source for that statistic, and I couldn't find an answer quickly online, but...would you not agree that coronavirus would increase their risk further?
0 -
kshama2001 wrote: »MikePfirrman wrote: »I'm dumbfounded we can't test more. We have given 8K tests so far total. Italy blamed the rapid spread on the slowness of testing. S Korea is managing to test 10K a year and seems to have contained it much better.
Angela Merkel, the German Prime Minister, told their body of Congress to expect 60% to 70% of the population to get it.
I do think it seems warmer temperatures will help it lessen, but I'm not optimistic at this point. It seems that regulation and red tape (as well as mixed messaging from the top -- both parties) is getting in the way.
Just heard that now Italy is not even intubating those over 65 with comorbities. I'm connected globally with many of the top immunologists in the world (I work with science based startups quite a bit). 168 died there yesterday alone. Death rate now at 6% in Italy. Not because it should be 6%, make it clear, it's because they were overwhelmed and not prepared. And they are way more prepared than us.
When will our government agencies get it together? I'd really like to know. In WW II (not to sound like the old guy), we built factories overnight for armery/tanks/planes/ships. We can't make test kits, masks to provide even the docs and nurses or more intubation equipment? It's reached the level of absurdity it seems. I sure hope plans are in place right now, but I doubt they are. We're still putting tests through "rigorous" standards. Bottleneck nightmares.
From the rate this is spreading, we have around 3 to 4 weeks before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Just wanted to point out your typo, as it is a big one - S Korea has been managing to test 10K a day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
...But it remains unclear how many Americans have been tested for the coronavirus. The C.D.C. says approximately 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken since the beginning of the outbreak — a figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs.
By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first case around the same time as the United States, has reported having the capacity to test roughly 10,000 people a day since late February.
South Korea is socialized national medicine.
In the state of Washington alone between the University of Washington and the DOH, we have the capacity right now (today) of testing 2000 per day. That would be 1000 people, as the tests are done twice per person.
At this point I don't think testing or not testing is the main problem - it's getting people to stay home if they are sick, and continuing to emphasize nonpharmaceutical interventions like hand washing and covering sneezes and coughs.
I think there is more than enough testing capacity right now. They aren't going to test everyone, only those with symptoms or a contact who has tested positive or who has traveled to high-risk travel-advisory areas. I know in the North Sound (Seattle area) they have drive-through swabbing tents to keep people out of ERs. Call ahead before seeking medical care.5 -
DecadeDuchess wrote: »If anyone has trouble locating toilet paper, how about cleaning your closets of clothes that you don't intend to wear again & cut them into pieces, as a temporary replacement but be mindful, not to drop them into the toilet but the trash instead?
I work with folks who grew up in places where supplies and things like running water were scarce. They used newspaper. You rub pages against each other so the ink doesn’t smear first. I have magazines. Seems like that would do in a pinch.
What you did there? I saw it. <nods>5 -
nutmegoreo wrote: »janejellyroll wrote: »I'm in Washington state, pretty close to the confirmed cases and yes, I'm a tad worried. Not in a panic, but being cautious. I have little kids and have asthma myself so I don't want any of us catching ANYTHING that could land us in the hospital.
I'm wondering why is everyone stockpiling toilet paper?!?! That is selling out as quick as water around here!
If I imagine being stuck in my apartment for a couple of weeks trying to avoid exposure to a disease, running out of toilet paper seems like it would be mighty inconvenient.
There is a you tube video out there on how to make a mask from toilet paper. I laughed so hard I had an accident.
Good thing you had a toilet paper mask! Dual purpose.
But only if you have your head up your...
...nevermind.
5 -
T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »rheddmobile wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »lightenup2016 wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
It may well be a forgone conclusion that you'll get it at some point, but the whole point of extra precautions like limiting potential exposure is to slow the rate of infection, so that health care systems aren't overwhelmed and those more at risk of severe symptoms have some hope of getting treatment. It's the socially responsible thing to do.
Yes, that was the first point I made in that post.T1DCarnivoreRunner wrote: »fitlulu4150 wrote: »I've been following the COVID-19 for awhile............like a lot of you I'm sure. At first I thought, well we have more deaths from seasonal A/B strains and it just didn't seem like anything much different. After a lot of research, of which there is actually very little known about this novel coronavirus so far, I've decided after watching what happened in China, S Korea and now Italy and the US, we need to be very proactive here in containing the virus.
I think it's imperative that those of us who are healthy/young (I'm healthy but not young) do our part to stop the spread of the virus. Our oldest and most infirm among us are at great risk, so it's up to the rest of us to do what we can to mitigate their exposure. Follow the recommendations of local and federal medical personnel.
The numbers of infected are increasing daily because the testing results are finally coming back after a lack of testing kits. Until we have an accurate number of those infected I think it's best to be overly cautious.
We should all practice responsible hygiene... hand washing and such. However, it is clear that this isn't going to be contained. I've already accepted that I will get Covid-19 at some point, just like most everyone else. It is just a matter of when, not if. Personally, I am not any more concerned than about getting a cold. I am young, not healthy, but my immune system is fantastic. So I am not concerned.
Ah, okay, just sort of read like you weren't going to worry about any sort of social distancing etc to help reduce rate of spread.
Well, no... the only "social distancing" I intend to do is minimize high 5's and hand shaking and such. My next marathon is 3/22, half marathons on 3/29 and 4/4. I intend to go to these unless cancelled. And I am going to work, stores, laundromat, etc. just like always. I am running outside just like always. I'm still washing hands and minimizing touching people and shared surfaces, but not going to completely change my schedules for the cold.
I was with you on this until you stated not changing your schedule for "a cold", because it's not a cold. It's death for 15% of people over 80, and for 7% of people in their 70s, not to mention those who have chronic illnesses. Good on you for watching out for yourself, but please think of others as well.
[ETA: Please see my later post referencing death rates by age from WHO]
The cold has higher mortality rates for people 80+ than for people in their 20's also, I'm sure, without even looking for the statistics.
ETA: If the 80-year old wants to stay home, that is their choice just as it is mine to not change my schedule because some people are getting a new version of cold. Just because something spreads fast, kills a small percentage of those it infects (and higher percentage of older people), I am not going to become a shut-in. I wouldn't do this for the cold, influenze, or norovirus - all 3 of which spread fast and have small mortality rates (higher if older) just like Covid-19.
FYI the mortality rate for diabetics of any age is 7.3%.
I assume that includes type 2, which is an entirely different disease than what I have? My immune system with type 1, on paper, shouldn't be any worse than anyone else as long as my BG's are well controlled. In my experience, my immune system is actually far better than average.
I assume so too. I didn't see any qualifiers for the stat. It makes sense that T2Dm would have a higher mortality rate than the general public. The nature of the disease means that there are more people with it who don't manage it well (or at all) compared to T1Dm where your only real options are manage or die. Unmanaged diabetes can definitely play havoc with the immune system.2
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