Coronavirus prep
Replies
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I can't find a free link to the study in LA County but here's a brief outline of the results.
On Monday, an initial report from that study was released. Based on their findings, researchers estimate that about 4.1% of the county’s adult population could have an antibody to the virus. After adjusting that estimate for the statistical margin of error, their findings suggest that somewhere between 2.8% and 5.6% of adults in the county have antibodies to the virus in their blood.
As my colleague Melanie Mason explains in her story, that would translate to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who had recovered from an infection in L.A. County by early April. But at the time researchers were conducting the study, there were fewer than 8,000 confirmed cases in the county. One doesn’t need a PhD to know that these are staggeringly different numbers.
So, what does all this mean? The study suggests that the coronavirus is much more widespread than originally known, but also potentially much less lethal.
We're waiting for more access to anti-body testing here. I'm fairly confident that both our daughter in SF and my husband had it at the end of Feb or early March. If my husband did have it I may have also and been asymptomatic. Not hanging all our hopes on it but it would be nice to know and help us relax things a bit here maybe.
Cases in Riverside County CA, where I live are still increasing everyday as are hospitalizations, Icu bed #'s and deaths so we're still on the upswing side of things unfortunately. They did open the golf courses, tennis courts and some of the trails yesterday though. Lots of precautions in place though still.5 -
That's interesting, Guardian is reporting that that WHO have found that a smaller proportion of people have antibodies than they expected, less than that quoted above.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms
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littlegreenparrot1 wrote: »That's interesting, Guardian is reporting that that WHO have found that a smaller proportion of people have antibodies than they expected, less than that quoted above.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms
There are a lot of unknowns, and it takes several weeks for antibodies to form. I wouldn't use that one Guardian article as the gospel.5 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »KrissCanDoThis wrote: »I think people take out their thoughts on the wrong people.. which is unfortunate.
In times like that people often hear bad news like that and are instantly overcome by the problems they have in their own lives, debt, cost of kids, insurance, etc.. it often leaves people thinking that the burden is solely put on them only and not anyone else in a higher position.
The fear and anger and sudden-ness of the news doesnt leave much room for stopping and wondering if higher ups are also going to have to deal with the same thing.
People also often think that because they make more money they would have it easier, but honestly, people often live on the edge of or outside their means.. and as upper management, Its often deemed inappropriate for them to discuss their pay, their Bill's, their home life with the people they are managing.. I know some do it, but it can often back fire on them also..
So were blind to their struggles and consumed by the problem in front of us, that we criticize them for what's happening and are even more harsh behind their backs..
I'm guilty of it too sometimes.. I'm sorry that you're having to deal with that.
I'm mostly frustrated right now because my proposal has most employees missing the total of a pay check spread across the year, which sucks...but the alternative is just canning people. Do you want a job but you'll miss a paycheck over a year or have no job, no insurance, etc? But apparently that doesn't translate...I can only do one or the other. Hopefully it will all become clear for my peeps over the weekend. I'm quite literally trying to find a way not to have to fire you for something that's not your fault...
I’m curious. Isn’t laying off, a better term? What are the grounds for firing?
Back in 2008, we had to take a 20% pay cut, and a cut back of hours, and some people were laid off. Many people did. Through no fault of our own, because of mismanagement by businesses. Time will tell, but universal health care may become critical during this crisis. Affordable health care is a joke for most people in the US. A friend that has been furloughed during this, will have to pay just under $1600/month for Cobra starting in May. Not many people can afford that.
Sure...whatever makes someone feel good. These aren't things I'm saying to my employees, this is in my head to computer screen..to me there is no difference between "fired" "laid off" "terminated", etc. These are just semantics...bottom line is people are without jobs. I was "laid off" in 2008 with the financial crisis...I personally didn't give a *kitten* what anyone called it. I'm not in HR, I'm in accounting...HR might lay down a little sugar, but it's still all the same *kitten* thing....you're done. I would rather furlough hours throughout the year than terminate positions which was my entire point...wanna job with a little less money or no job? Also, if we furlough they can keep their health care benefits, which is pretty important. IDK about the importance of universal HC after this...I've always thought it important, but politics...I'm not sure much will actually change with this.
ETA: who knows...maybe HR will come out with some new termination term like "corona relief"...does that really change anything?
I was furloughed during a state budget crunch - it was a day or two a month over a couple of years. Lay-offs were different - that meant not reporting for work at all.4 -
littlegreenparrot1 wrote: »That's interesting, Guardian is reporting that that WHO have found that a smaller proportion of people have antibodies than they expected, less than that quoted above.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms
I'm sure we need a lot more antibody testing to really know one way or another how many people have had it and maybe weren't ever tested or didn't even know they had it. There is also some speculation that the antibody testing may not be as accurate as previously thought. I just copied what was reported in the LA Times because someone asked about it. There is still so much unknown at this time. I never believe everything I read.............LOL, although I am trying to find some positive news where I can.
I've only left the house twice since March 16th. One a drive to the beach when we picnicked in the car and one early morning trip to CVS. My husband is doing all the grocery shopping right now so only one of us is potentially exposed. He's 72 and I'm 70. I'm also waiting for elective surgeries to begin again for the new hip I desperately need, so I'm trying to go into that as healthy as possible.
Stay safe and healthy everyone and even though you may be in a state with some controversial opening of businesses, it doesn't mean you should put your own health or others at risk if you can prevent it. Things are still very uncertain and changing daily as far as what we actually know.10 -
Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests.
How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......8 -
cwolfman13 wrote: »missysippy930 wrote: »cwolfman13 wrote: »KrissCanDoThis wrote: »I think people take out their thoughts on the wrong people.. which is unfortunate.
In times like that people often hear bad news like that and are instantly overcome by the problems they have in their own lives, debt, cost of kids, insurance, etc.. it often leaves people thinking that the burden is solely put on them only and not anyone else in a higher position.
The fear and anger and sudden-ness of the news doesnt leave much room for stopping and wondering if higher ups are also going to have to deal with the same thing.
People also often think that because they make more money they would have it easier, but honestly, people often live on the edge of or outside their means.. and as upper management, Its often deemed inappropriate for them to discuss their pay, their Bill's, their home life with the people they are managing.. I know some do it, but it can often back fire on them also..
So were blind to their struggles and consumed by the problem in front of us, that we criticize them for what's happening and are even more harsh behind their backs..
I'm guilty of it too sometimes.. I'm sorry that you're having to deal with that.
I'm mostly frustrated right now because my proposal has most employees missing the total of a pay check spread across the year, which sucks...but the alternative is just canning people. Do you want a job but you'll miss a paycheck over a year or have no job, no insurance, etc? But apparently that doesn't translate...I can only do one or the other. Hopefully it will all become clear for my peeps over the weekend. I'm quite literally trying to find a way not to have to fire you for something that's not your fault...
I’m curious. Isn’t laying off, a better term? What are the grounds for firing?
Back in 2008, we had to take a 20% pay cut, and a cut back of hours, and some people were laid off. Many people did. Through no fault of our own, because of mismanagement by businesses. Time will tell, but universal health care may become critical during this crisis. Affordable health care is a joke for most people in the US. A friend that has been furloughed during this, will have to pay just under $1600/month for Cobra starting in May. Not many people can afford that.
Sure...whatever makes someone feel good. These aren't things I'm saying to my employees, this is in my head to computer screen..to me there is no difference between "fired" "laid off" "terminated", etc. These are just semantics...bottom line is people are without jobs. I was "laid off" in 2008 with the financial crisis...I personally didn't give a *kitten* what anyone called it. I'm not in HR, I'm in accounting...HR might lay down a little sugar, but it's still all the same *kitten* thing....you're done. I would rather furlough hours throughout the year than terminate positions which was my entire point...wanna job with a little less money or no job? Also, if we furlough they can keep their health care benefits, which is pretty important. IDK about the importance of universal HC after this...I've always thought it important, but politics...I'm not sure much will actually change with this.
ETA: who knows...maybe HR will come out with some new termination term like "corona relief"...does that really change anything?
I was furloughed during a state budget crunch - it was a day or two a month over a couple of years. Lay-offs were different - that meant not reporting for work at all.
I wasn't saying there isn't a difference in furlough and being laid off...I was responding to the question in regards to terminology of "fired" or "laid off" and that in the big picture it's really semantics. To someone getting laid off, they can call it whatever they want...it all still means they don't have a job.
I'm hoping that we don't even have to go the route of furlough by substantially cutting expenditures and maintaining vacancies when/if people leave or retire...but people should be prepared for that possibility.3 -
Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests. How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......
Italy is a much smaller country than the US. However, what's happening is that the North is highly infected with many cases and many deaths. As you move south there are pockets or clusters, especially in nursing homes, but infection is much less than the North. People in the South do not see why they should be under strict lockdown. They want things loosened up. And yes, there are those who are afraid that the South could become like the North. Since this is new, no one knows for sure. The economy is in desperate straights after over a month of lockdown, so something has to give. I think they have to try opening up with precautions. But, when you think about it, people as a whole have to be behind the measures. You can't make people do something for a long period of time--unless you've got a dictatorship.6 -
Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests. How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......
A few types of people:
- Those who comply and feel all the measures are in the right place
- Those who want to comply but sometimes don't and justify it as "not a big deal" because they're safe
- Those who comply begrudgingly because they don't want to be fined
- Those who don't comply and know exactly what they're doing, but do it anyway
- Those who want to comply but are too preoccupied with their financial future so their actions are more influenced by that than by safety and health concerns
- Those who don't really understand the seriousness of the situation
Most people here support the current measures, but less than half of them comply without external supervision. People are very susceptible to group influence. If they see a well organized waiting line they stand in line and keep their distance. If there isn't an already organized line, they'll act chaotically and stand closer. If a few cars pass by the street, they'll have the courage to drive their car (driving is not allowed here).
Although compliance varies from place to place, the general consensus is that people are happy with the safety measures being taken, but are unhappy with the financial ramifications to the point where some are starting to question if all of this is worth it. They aren't exactly "against" because they want to be, they're just tired. I haven't heard any calls for protest, just some typical social media whining.10 -
My observation is that there are two completely different worlds in this currently.
1) People who are able to continue to work and have not experienced economic hardship
2) People who are no longer able to work and are struggling.
I am lucky to be in group 1, changing from 50% working at home to 100%. So while I face daily aggravations with various components of the "shelter in place" thing, I am not truly suffering. I have food on the table, so for me to complain about lost social opportunities, recreation, and hobbies would be very petty and selfish. And yet social media reveals that a lot of people in my situation are dying right now, and I think they should keep things in perspective.16 -
It's true for me too... while I technically will be going back to work in 9 days, for this month I've been off it's been like nothing's changed other then how I shop for groceries.
I dont feel the hardships a lot of people are facing.6 -
cmriverside wrote: »littlegreenparrot1 wrote: »That's interesting, Guardian is reporting that that WHO have found that a smaller proportion of people have antibodies than they expected, less than that quoted above.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms
There are a lot of unknowns, and it takes several weeks for antibodies to form. I wouldn't use that one Guardian article as the gospel.
I don't take anything as gospel, just thought it was relevant as I had read it 10 mins beforehand.
One of the things I like about this thread is the opportunity to see opinions from other countries, both personal and in the media.
There are so many unknown unknowns that they are all just grasping in the dark really while science catches up.
We cannot continue the way we are indefinitely, there must come a time when the harms outweigh the benefits.5 -
KrissCanDoThis wrote: »It's true for me too... while I technically will be going back to work in 9 days, for this month I've been off it's been like nothing's changed other then how I shop for groceries.
I dont feel the hardships a lot of people are facing.
Me too, but I’m retired and live in the country. So not any big changes except availability of some things at the grocery store. Biggest issue is not seeing my daughter. Her birthday in 9 days & I’m sad😢10 -
fitlulu4150 wrote: »I can't find a free link to the study in LA County but here's a brief outline of the results.
On Monday, an initial report from that study was released. Based on their findings, researchers estimate that about 4.1% of the county’s adult population could have an antibody to the virus. After adjusting that estimate for the statistical margin of error, their findings suggest that somewhere between 2.8% and 5.6% of adults in the county have antibodies to the virus in their blood.
As my colleague Melanie Mason explains in her story, that would translate to roughly 221,000 to 442,000 adults who had recovered from an infection in L.A. County by early April. But at the time researchers were conducting the study, there were fewer than 8,000 confirmed cases in the county. One doesn’t need a PhD to know that these are staggeringly different numbers.
So, what does all this mean? The study suggests that the coronavirus is much more widespread than originally known, but also potentially much less lethal.
We're waiting for more access to anti-body testing here. I'm fairly confident that both our daughter in SF and my husband had it at the end of Feb or early March. If my husband did have it I may have also and been asymptomatic. Not hanging all our hopes on it but it would be nice to know and help us relax things a bit here maybe.
Cases in Riverside County CA, where I live are still increasing everyday as are hospitalizations, Icu bed #'s and deaths so we're still on the upswing side of things unfortunately. They did open the golf courses, tennis courts and some of the trails yesterday though. Lots of precautions in place though still.
Not quite as high as the Santa Clara County results, but still much more than 50% of cases are asymptomatic.3 -
Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests. How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......
This was one of the things I was worried about when they whole sale shuttered business. I was and still am somewhat skeptical as to whether or not that had to be done. I would have preferred other measures such as capacity limits and requiring some kind of mask or face covering to enter a business to have happened first. I'm sure it's very difficult for the guy who owns one of the local nurseries here to be shut down and not know when or if he'll ever operate again to see a parking lot full of cars at Lowes with people purchasing much of what he also sells.
At any rate, I would imagine if you polled the protesters, I would wager that many, if not most are now unemployed. When you have 20M+ people filing for unemployment and then also having difficulty getting that, you're going to start to see push back. At this point, for those people, it's not about sacrificing for the greater good...it's about self preservation. They don't know if they're going to make rent...they don't know if they will have enough money for food or to pay their utilities, etc. For these people, these concerns are now much more real and devastatingly personal than the virus. For these individuals, their economic viability is a far greater threat than the virus.
I am fortunate that my wife and I can still work and do so from home 95% of the time. The lack of social interaction is getting to us, as well as the inability to go anywhere or do anything...but that is a mild annoyance relative to wondering if we're going to foreclose on the house or if we'll be able to feed our kids, or if our utilities are going to get shut off for non payment, or how far we can stretch a buck.
You basically have two very different worlds colliding...those that can and continue to work and stay home for the greater good of the community, and those that can't work and don't know what they're going to do with self preservation as their primary concern at this point.13 -
Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests. How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......
In New Zealand, the vast majority of people have been very compliant (this is backed by Google movement data). That's why our daily case numbers look like this:
Of course we are a much smaller country, and have less of the extremism seen in the US (which doesn't mean there's none and that everyone is happy about the measures being taken, but there's no physical protesting, etc). I also think that because we are a small country, made up of islands, most realise that we are in a very fortunate position in that, if done right, we can keep the virus very contained until a vaccine is developed.
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smithker75 wrote: »Nony_Mouse wrote: »New Zealand had it's announcement on moving from Level 4 to Level 3 (which is a slight loosening of our quite strict lockdown rules) this afternoon. We were originally scheduled to come out of Level 4 this coming Thursday at the earliest. Level 3 comes in on Tuesday week, which gives an additional five days of hard core lockdown to really solidify the low transmission/new case numbers, and also means that those businesses that can resume are doing so at the start of the work week (Monday is a public holiday for ANZAC Day).
People who are able to work from home must continue to do so, retail, bars, cafes, restaurants etc remain physically closed to the public, but any of them who can trade without physical interaction with the public are able to (so, all online shopping can resume - previously only essential goods were available/able to be delivered, restaurants can do delivery or contactless pick up, etc), early childhood centres and school for up to Year 10 is available for those who need it (ie parents going back to work with no other options for childcare), strict requirements for distancing and hygiene in place for any operational businesses, we can venture a little further afield for recreation/exercise but still expected to be at home the majority of the time if not working away from home.
ETA: NZ is in really good shape, our number of new daily cases is down to single digits (actually oscillating between high single and low to mid teens), our number of recovered cases is nearly double the number of active (which sits at 454 as of this morning).
I'd have liked to see Level 4 continued for an additional week longer (and coming out of it on May the 4th would have just been cool), but I think so long as people get the message that Level 3 is not a licence to go out and start socialising, we'll be fine.
It will be interesting to see how Australia rolls back restrictions now that NZ have started. I know we are a ways behind, and that it will vary from state to state when it does.
Schools are open here for children of essential workers and others are learning remotely at home. Do you know what the reasoning is for NZ schools to open only for students up to Year 10? Just curious as I work in education management (Aus) and this hasn't been something I've heard discussed here.
The limitation for up to Year 10 is due to the fact that kids over 14 can be legally left home alone here.
We have received notification from my son's high school and daughter's primary school that for the kids attending school (kids of workers who can't work from home) that they will still be receiving the same online programmes as those at home. They will just be in a classroom supervised by a teacher, not actually being taught in person.
Aha, I see. The delivery of school work here is the same for those attending 'in person' or online too.0 -
My county went from 0 to 10 deaths overnight and from 125 to 143 cases. We had been going up about 3-7 cases a day. I'm hoping it was a lag in reporting rather than a sudden influx of patients. Yesterday there was a big protest at the state capital with 1000 people. Few masks and no distancing. A week from now, there will be another big jump in cases. I understand why people are impatient to get back to work and get some hope of a normal income again, but gathering in a large crowd was really not smart.13
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Texas is supposed to start cautiously resuming some economic activities Friday. My county, Denton, now has 18 deaths from covid-19. I have been watching the deaths and counting the days between doublings. The 16th death, which was the fourth doubling, was posted this recent Saturday, with a span of 8 days from the 3rd doubling. They've been posted mostly in singles all through this time. If that rate of death, 1 per day, simply persists it will stretch the 5th doubling to 16 days. The statistically important thing is the days-between-doublings. To see that number grow is to know that the rate of death is falling and to infer that the rate of infection had fallen two weeks ago. As the state begins to resume operating, I'll keep watching my county's numbers.2
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Snowflake and others, who live in other countries:
With new laws and requirements from your governments, how are your people feeling about it? Do they easily comply or balk at being forced to do certain things they don't want to do?
Here in America, it saddens and scares me to see thousands of protesters congregate over it all being unconstitutional. Not many people are using masks or certainly not social distancing during these protests. How many will needlessly suffer the ramifications of these large groups?
Businesses do need to start easing into it again so people can live and the economy can rebound a bit before it completely tanks. But with so many denying to do what's right and responsible, it's terribly scary to think about. Even such a simple thing as wearing a mask and people are already saying they'll refuse because it doesn't do any good anyways.
Just curious.......
I am in Australia.
Australia is a big place geographically but relatively small population (around 25 million)
Some states were hit worse than others - mainly the east coast states.
And restrictions have been tighter in them.
To my knowledge there have been no organised protests. and most people seem to be adhering to requirements - a few arrests for people having illegal parties and such but the overall compliance is pretty good, I think.
Incidentally our government is not encouraging mask wearing (it isnt discouraging it either) and neither does WHO.
Most people are not wearing masks - and I tend to agree with the line of thought that they dont do much for the general public.
Curve seems to be flattening in Australia as a whole - and never got to the levels of badly hit countries like Italy, US etc in first place.
My own state of South Australia was not badly hit (438 total cases, 388 recovered, 4 deaths, - which by my maths, leaves 50 active cases, 2 of whom are in ICU - in a state with total population around 1.7 million)
our new case rate is right down - 1 today, 2 yesterday, 0 for 3 consecutive days prior to that.
And that is with widespread testing - anyone with any flu like symptoms at all, no matter how mild, can get tested.
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